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Smit definitely has a shot to make it in the bigs, provided the right opportunity and situation comes along. Depending on available spaces, it is certainly possible that they keep him around.

As for Schlitter, I'm okay if they keep him around for another season. He had a decent-solid year in AAA. Wish the walks were down a bit. If he can get it down a bit, he might be a nice power arm to bring in as a middle reliever.

My best guess is that the Cubs have always been somewhat overly fascinated with Berg's sinker.

I just wonder if the Cubs keep Gaub around after his breakdown this year, and with Maine on the 40, Russell probably in the bigs, and along with at least a couple lefties in the upper levels (I mean, chances of Sommer/Siegfried/Buchter all getting plucked are rather slim. I highly doubt any get plucked, but you never know).

Looking at the options information, much as I'd like to keep Fuld around, I think he's a goner (he had a real nice 2nd half). Wouldn't be surprised for him to sign a minor league deal with another org, get a NRI to spring and have a shot to be in the bigs next year. Personally, I wouldn't mind seeing Fuld as a 5th OF, pinch runner, defensive replacement type, but with Jim Adducci in AAA, along with Brandon Guyer nipping on the heels, I just don't see it happening. Hoffpauir should be a goner as well. Nice organizational guy, but without options, there's no point to keeping him around when he can't be a consistent bench threat. Gray should be gone. The power potential was always intriguing, but he can't translate that into performance. A K rate in the 4-5 range at AAA simply isn't enticing, particularly when there isn't pinpoint control to add onto it. Scales is a goner as well. It's been somewhat acknowledged that he's on as a reward of sorts. That takes it down to 39. Barring a surprise, Nady won't be brought back, so that's 38. If I had to take some guesses at this early juncture, I'd guess - Angel Guzman is going to be non-tendered. Could I see the Cubs bringing him back? Sure, but not at the million or so range that he might get. - Koyie Hill will be non-tendered. Maybe he does get brought back, but Chirinos is viewed quite highly in the organization, and the organization has never seemed to be that down on Castillo. Unless a trade happens, I think Hill gets non-tendered for now. - From Atkins/Berg/Gaub/Mateo/Parker/Schlitter/Stevens, I think 2 of them will likely be taken off. My guess right now would be Gaub and Parker, in all honesty. That gets us to 34, which is enough to protect Chirinos, Archer, Cabrera, Guyer. Personally, I'd also take off the 40 - James Adducci. Don't like the fact that his walk rate dipped, don't like the 20% K rate for his skillset. He's always been compared to as a bigger Fuld, but Fuld had much better discipline. Borderline case - Brad Snyder - I think how he performs down the stretch may determine whether or not he sticks around. My hunch is that the organization would like to see him stick as a depth OF who can offer some lefty pop off the bench. Jeff Baker - Really comes down to payroll situation. If the Cubs have to trim some payroll, then I could see him get non-tendered, which might open the door for someone like Marquez Smith or a FA veteran bat, since Barney can backup three positions. Guess is that he'll be around, but who knows. I hope that the Cubs deal John Grabow - If Russell isn't exposed against righties too much, I think he should be alright. With Marshall there, and with Maine as either a 3rd lefty or in AAA, that's enough options. Even if you only save 500K, I just don't see a role for Grabow, particularly if it comes at the risk of letting a younger arm go. This might be wishing on a shining star, though. 4.8 million is a lot for a guy coming off a bad season where he had injuries. That said, many teams have odd reactions when they hear veteran lefty, so who knows. Carlos Silva - Mid-season, this seemed like something that could be easily done, but now, teams will likely check the medical reports on him very carefully, making this harder. He's been better than we could've hoped for this year, and there's only 8 million to consider (2 million buyout in 2012). My guess is that we'll keep him around next year, but I'd like to open up a spot in the rotation for either an outside addition or a youngster.

I'd keep Mateo over Smit without a 2nd thought, in all honesty. I don't know what the Cubs will do, and I'm certainly cognizant of the fact that Mateo is on the bubble. There aren't many guys in the system with his level of stuff, and out of the pen, if I'm gambling on an arm, I'm gambling on stuff. Smit's nice, low 90's fastball, good curve, but it's middle relief potential. Mateo's got a real good hard mid-80's slider to go with that mid-90's fastball. His BB rates have never been that bad ... it's been consistency of stuff issues (and the HR ball has plagued in the bigs). There's some late inning potential with his arm. If he finds consistency on the fastball, he'll be fine. The slider's been relatively solid in the bigs. The fact that he's 27 next year doesn't help his cause, though. Shame his changeup never developed.

I don't think we've really discussed this winter's Rule 5 draft that deeply yet, unless I missed a thread or two. If I did, apologies, and feel free to ignore this. There's also this fall, so someone could emerge. Anyhow, as usual, over at TCR, AzPhil provides us the list of eligible guys. There is one absolute, must protect, and that is Chris Archer. With an abundance of average guys on the 40 right now, clearing 1 spot isn't going to be an issue. Robinson Chirinos will likely be protected as well. Some other key names that will be eligible: Brandon Guyer, Marquez Smith, Alberto Cabrera, Luke Sommer, Matt Spencer, Kyle Smit, Chris Siegfried, Ryan Buchter, Steve Clevenger, Tony Thomas, Larry Suarez, Nate Samson, Craig Muschko, Ronny Morla, Marwin Gonzalez, Alessandro Maestri, Casey Lambert, Jake Muyco, Kyler Burke, Chris Huseby. (again, not a comprehensive list) The one guy I have no clue on is Muyco. On talent and performance, I'd think no, but he is getting a Arizona Fall League spot (unless a change is made), which makes me wonder. I think I'll be surprised if Tony Thomas, Larry Suarez, Kyler Burke, Chris Huseby, Nate Samson, Craig Muschko, Ronny Morla, Marwin Gonzalez, Alessandro Maestri, and Casey Lambert are protected. Steve Clevenger is probably going to be exposed, unless the Cubs deal a catcher this offseason, which may open up a slot for him. If not, I doubt the Cubs will have 4 catchers on the 40. I sort of lump Luke Sommer, Chris Siegfried, Ryan Buchter together. I wouldn't protect any of them (doubtful all three get plucked, and with Maine/Russell/Marshall, there are pen lefties at the bigs/AAA level). That said, would I be surprised if one of them were protected? Probably not. Of the three, I still like Siegfried's overall stuff a bit better than Sommer's 2-seamer. Not sure what to think about Kyle Smit. A lot of righties in the upper levels, and his stuff isn't that exceptional that you have to protect, but he's solid enough to make a career for himself. I doubt he's protected, but it wouldn't surprise me if he was. That leaves 5 more names on the quick list I posted (again, not comprehensive). I think if we protect a 3rd person (would be a surprise to me if we didn't), I'd prefer it to be (no shock here) Guyer. The team could use another young OF, and his potential to perhaps be a solid 4th OF is tempting enough. Add in his excellent performance, and I think it's quite worth it. If we protect a 4th guy, I'll surprise a touch. I think a lot of people would lean Marquez Smith, but I think I would rather protect Alberto Cabreras mid-90's fastball and solid slider and see if he can develop. He might end up being another Marcos Mateo, but I think it's worth the gamble to find out. If we protect a 5th, it'd be Smith for me, but Spencer may nip at his heels in my head. Marquez is still line-drive power who really is only comfortable at 3rd. I'd like to see the Cubs try him in the OF, but they haven't done it yet, and he's a "break if an emergency" 2nd baseman. I know Spencer hasn't been consistent with his power, but he still has more raw power than Smith, and I'd be tempted. Close though. Of course, this gets into roster issues, as spots need to be cleared for these guys. There's currently 43 names, including 60 day DL guys. Certain cuts can be expected - Bobby Scales comes to mind. Koyie Hill is another guy who will likely be off the roster. Xavier Nady will likely be gone, despite his strong finish. Jeff Baker, Micah Hoffpauir, Sam Fuld, James Adducci, Brad Snyder are far from guaranteed to be on the 40 man, and someone like Kosuke Fukudome could, obviously, be shopped. Of those guys, I think Hoffpauir is probably a clear goner, and my guess is that Fuld will be taken off as well. Snyder offers the potential to fill Hoffpauir's role, and Adducci is basically a bigger Fuld. I imagine that a lot of arms will be cleared off. From the Atkins, Berg, Diamond, Gaub, Gray, Guzman, Maine, Mateo, Parker, Schlitter, Stevens group, I imagine 2-3, at least, will be taken off. I also wouldn't be all that stunned if John Grabow or Carlos Silva were moved, and there's always a slim chance of a Z trade. Short of it is, there should be enough spots open. As noted, obviously a lot of time to go, so someone may emerge. If I had to take a guess now, I'd say Archer, Chirinos, Guyer, Cabrera, Smith are added to the 40 man this winter.

For those that missed it, the Cubs are loading up Tennessee for the playoffs. To Daytona: Mark Reed, Corey Martin, Alberto Cabrera, and David Macias To Tennessee: DJ LeMahieu, Christopher Carpenter, Luke Sommer, Robinson Chirinos

Mark Reed, David Macias, Alberto Cabrera, Corey Martin sent to Daytona. Christopher Carpenter, Robinson Chirinos, DJ LeMahieu, Luke Sommer at Tennessee. Cubs really want that title and are loading up. Curious if LeMahieu starts, and if so, where? Curious about rotation for playoffs - Archer, Carpenter, McNutt I'm assuming?

Definitely possible that someone plucks Clevenger, and it's hard to imagine Clevenger being protected. His hot streak once he got regular AB's didn't really help matters (in terms of keeping him). That said, I thought there was a chance that we might lose Chirinos or Clevenger last year, and that didn't happen. Chirinos will definitely be protected, but it's possible that teams view Clevenger as a backup backstop and decide against it. Here's hoping. I'd like to keep him in the system.

I've defended the Simpson pick before, so it feels odd to be critiquing him, but while most reports all acknowledged that, at one point in time this year, he was throwing mid-90's (and then it tailed off), they also mostly acknowledge that his fastball didn't have great movement. On the other hand, Gray's FB has been described as plus, as well as his curveball/breaking ball.

The only person I really, superbly want would be Anthony Rendon. A potential, impact bat that can move fast at a possible position of need in the near future would be nice. I like Purke, I like Cole, but I have enough concerns on both that I won't be tremendously disappointed if we don't have a chance at them, and at the rate we are going, we probably won't. The chance of Sonny Gray does rise tremendously for us out of the top 5. Btw, I wasn't against the Hayden Simpson pick, but Gray, with all the information out there right now, is on a higher level. Now, maybe Hayden was simply ridiculously abused (pitch counts) so maybe he holds up better with more shrewd usage, but overall Gray's stuff is on a higher level based on what is known.

I'm very interested to hear new reports on Whitenack. Seems like the knuckle-curve (I think) that was talked about pre-draft was never as good as anticipated, but curious how his other pitches currently look. I have to admit, I had him close to written off as someone of interest early in the year, but he's really put together a solid 2nd half.

To add some other names to the discussion: I am still intrigued with Dustin Geiger's bat potential. Early reviews on his ability to stick at 3rd seem positive, but for him to go anywhere, that power has to develop. I'd also say add Colin Richardson and Ryan Hartman into the discussion. Both are a step behind Austin Reed developmentally, but both have solid potential.

Been waiting all season for Morla to get a start ... I would love to see the Cubs get him some starting opportunities next season, although I'm not expecting it. I guess there's a chance that he could be plucked in Rule 5, but I doubt it at this point.

fair enough, but right now, if you took the top two pitches of both guys at the same point in time, I don't think they grade out that differently. We're talking a good high 80's 2-seamer for Rusin and a good, borderline plus curveball right now, which is basically the same combination that Marshall had. I'm not denying that I would put Marshall ahead, I just don't think the difference is all that much.

I know the reports on Sean from back then. I'm just not sure it's as big a difference as you guys are making it out to be. If I had to line them up next to each other, sure, I'd have Sean, at a similar point, as ahead. But at similar points, both threw high 80's 2-seamers that worked well and had good sink. Sean had a much better 4-seam, no doubt about it. There have been very positive reports on Rusin's breaking ball this year. I always thought of Sean, as a SP coming up, as a possible mid-end of the rotation arm, who, in a good year, could look like a solid mid-rotation guy, and I think the same way about Chris. My realistic hope about Sean coming up was that I hoped he could be an end of the rotation guy, and I think that's my realistic hope on Chris. Obviously hoping for better. I'm not completely sold that we should start thinking that Sean is a solid setup arm. Another year of dominating against righties and I might change my mind. Only time will tell.

My guess is that Clevenger will go to AAA to split time with the loser of Chirinos/Castillo/? for the backup catcher job, with Brenly perhaps getting the bump to Tennessee. If Luis Flores is back, he could be the guy in A+, although my guess would be that the main catcher in Daytona might be Jonathon Mota, with perhaps an old hand like Mark Reed around to help work with the young arms.

Didn't do a good job of making a point there. Meant it more along the lines of organizational filler (Mathes) and back end of the rotation/middle relief (Rusin) as compared to Marshall. Wait... hasn't Marshall always been back end of the rotation/middle relief? :lol: As a prospect coming up (and I was a huge fan of his, I preferred his arsenal depth over Rich Hill), yes, he was always more of a back end of the rotation/middle relief guy. Had he had the type of velocity he's been showing this year, it would've been a different story. Marshall coming up, stuff-wise, was somewhat Rusin-ish. From what I've gathered on Ebinger, I think, for "classification" purposes, he would be closer to Marshall and Rusin coming up (decent FB, solid change, decent slider and curve) than the Marshall that's in the bigs right now.

Damn nice start for Ebinger. Seems like the changeup is much better than the pre-draft reports had suggested. Anyone know if the FB numbers for him still high 80's touching low 90's?

Ebinger's put together a nice stretch in the NWL. Granted, NWL ... but still 40 K's in 40 ip, and only 5 bb ... it's a positive, at the very least.

I think Micah and Jake had more raw power than Marquez.

I really don't get the point of sending Muyco to Arizona, nothing personal to Jake, unless they feel like he's made progress that can't be seen in his performances. If so, I'd like to know what it is. Looks like an excellent situation for Flaherty to get some work at 2nd base. Harrison, Mercer, Valdespin, and Romine could all possibly get some work at 2nd as well, I guess. I half wonder, with only 3 OF's, if they might ask Flaherty to pick up an OF glove as well.

Wow, is that an awesome report. AZ Phil isn't prone to being overly positive, is he? From what I know he is a greatly respected source. That actually doesn't sound that positive to me, personally. The reports on Reed's mechanics jibes with pre-draft reports. Liria's great changeup has been known, but AzPhil makes it sound like his fastball can be inconsistent, and inconsistent fb's can lead to problems.

Except younger and better. younger yes, better... who knows? i don't know what beliveau hits on the radar gun but he's pitched 60 1/3 innings, struck out 92 (13.72 K/9 IP) and allowed 26 walks (3.88 BB/9 IP). he's been unlucky on balls in play and his hit rate is still very good. nobody talks about him but he's got to be doing something right to miss so many bats. Hard to compare the two ... Beliveau is a low 90's guy, IIRC, with a nasty curve, which probably accounts for the missed bats. Kurcz probably has a better chance of being a late inning arm with his fb being able to hit the mid-90's, and a solid breaking ball.