toonsterwu

Unless I'm mistaken, Cabrera can also run the 4-seamer in there at around 95/96. He might sit a touch more around 92-94, but I think the same holds true for Robinson as well. His age is certainly a plus, but Alberto Cabrera was also 19 when he first reached Low A, putting up some similar peripherals to what Robinson Lopez did.

I could see Robinson Lopez breaking out. As for ranking him, I think, if he makes my top 30, it'll be in the 20's. He'll probably make my top 30 - just haven't had time to go through a final list, but I can't go too high on him. After all, what exactly does he offer that makes him more intriguing than the more polished Alberto Cabrera and Rafael Dolis? All three are hard mid-90's guys with spotty secondary pitches, but Cabrera and Dolis have both done it at higher levels. I say this because on a thread over at Sickels a few weeks ago, several folks were pushing a B- for Lopez, and other than "Braves pedigree", I just don't see how that's justified.

I think that the top 3 is going to be some order of Archer/McNutt/BJax. I tend to lean towards BJax a tiny bit still, although I can see cases for any order of the top 3. These would be high B, B+ types. After that, there's a group of about 4 guys. That would be Vitters/Lee/Carpenter/JJax. These guys are likely B- to B types, although some might argue C+ for a couple of them. I think, as of now, that I am leaning slightly to Carpenter at 4, with Lee at 5. I like Carpenter's strong finish, and he seems far safer right now. Could see an argument for Lee. I'm not sure who is ahead between Vitters or J Jax. The top 6 or 7 guys will likely be the same for most people. Starting at 8 is when there might be a level of discussion. I think there's around 10-12 guys in the system that you could make a case for as a C+-ish type guy, which will likely start around 8. I mean, some possibilities starting at 8, for me, would be Junior Lake, Ryan Flaherty, Robinson Chirinos, Brandon Guyer, Hayden Simpson, Reggie Golden, Rafael Dolis, Jae-Hoon Ha, Chris Rusin, and so on. For now, I think my 8-10 would be Junior Lake, Reggie Golden, and Hayden Simpson in some fashion. So ... 1-3 BJax/Archer/McNutt 4-7 Carpenter or Lee/Vitters or J Jax 8-10 Lake, Golden, or Simpson Still contemplating.

I'm not huge on Ackley, but after his slow start, he did put together a nice run and is expected to add some power. The big question is whether or not he can stick at 2nd. I can't fault them for placing Minor ahead of Archer - lefty's with good stuff and better command/control are quite valuable, and Archer has some more work needed on his command to ensure that he stays as a starter.

Castro misses cutoff. BJax 8, Archer 9, Guyer sneaks on at 14. http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/league-top-20-prospects/2010/2610759.html 1. Mike Stanton,of, Jacksonville Suns (Marlins) 2. Dustin Ackley, 2b, West Tenn Diamond Jaxx (Mariners) 3. Michael Pineda, rhp, West Tenn Diamond Jaxx (Mariners) 4. Mike Minor, lhp, Mississippi Braves 5. Brett Lawrie, 2b, Huntsville Stars (Brewers) 6. Dee Gordon, ss, Chattanooga Lookouts (Dodgers) 7. Devin Mesoraco, c, Carolina Mudcats (Reds) 8. Brett Jackson, of, Tennessee Smokies (Cubs) 9. Chris Archer, rhp, Tennessee Smokies (Cubs) 10. Matt Dominguez, 3b, Jacksonville Suns (Marlins) 11. Chris Withrow, rhp, Chattanooga Lookouts (Dodgers) 12. Alex Torres, lhp, Montgomery Biscuits (Rays) 13. Trayvon Robinson, of, Chattanooga Lookouts (Dodgers) 14. Brandon Guyer, of, Tennessee Smokies (Cubs) 15. David Sappelt, of, Carolina Mudcats (Reds) 16. Alex Liddi, 3b/1b, West Tenn Diamond Jaxx (Mariners) 17. Brandon Beachy, rhp, Mississippi Braves 18. Brent Morel, 3b, Birmingham Barons (White Sox) 19. Alex Cobb, rhp, Montgomery Biscuits (Rays) 20. Jerry Sands, of/1b, Chattanooga Lookouts (Dodgers)

ouch ... not top 100 and won't push Castro? I know they keep trying to say that they aren't down on him ... but geesh ... that's harsh, even for me.

Thanks for the answers Nate. As to the rankings, I respect both of them. I thought they would have a wider gap between McNutt and Miller/Turner. This is fair. I like McNutt and think he could end up being better than both, but this is fine. The report makes him sound like a future ace if the changeup comes along. As for Lee, I respect the ranking. I haven't been as high on Lee as some (and I got blasted last year on other sites for even remotely suggesting that Castro might be hard to move off short if he "owns" the position, and suggested that Lee might be a CF idea ... still think it might be possible, even though Lee's defense is clearly a notch better), and considering how much offensive and defensive work is needed, I think it's fair. If I had to pick a "2nd baseman of the future" right now, I'd go Cerda. Like him that much. I think the reason people "slept" on Cerda, including myself, was because of how he failed as a catcher.

Whoa, Ben Wells at 240+? I knew he was a big hoss that was still growing and had a workhorse body ... but geesh. That said, good to hear that the kid's secondary pitches were as good as advertised. Assuming there's no significant weight issues (I thought he was 220/225), Ben and Austin are both fairly exciting pitching talents.

Thanks for the responses Nate. There was a report this summer that said Struck was peaking in the high 80's, which was what got me worried. Feels a lot better to know that he is who I thought he was ... and here's hoping that with more time training, that he'll get stronger and add some more velocity. If you are around, three other questions - How much pop do you think Cerda can develop? I know you said you don't have a good feel for Robinson Lopez yet, but are there any comparisons you can make between R. Lopez and Alberto Cabrera when they were at the same levels? Lastly, I asked you earlier in the year what you thought about Casey Kopitzke. Now that the year is done, is there any insight you could provide us? How is Casey working with the kids? What do you think about his in-game managing capabilities? I just wonder if Casey will get put on the fast-track and be primed to be a big league coaching candidate. Seemed like a lot of positive vibe from his last 2 years.

Mildly interesting comment from Bruce Miles on his blog in response to my question on the Rule 5 draft this year: http://blogs.dailyherald.com/node/4715?page=1 The other names I had mentioned were Kyle Smit, Alberto Cabrera, Chris Siegfried, and Ryan Buchter (forgot about adding Matt Spencer in there along with Steve Clevenger). If the Cubs protect Sommer over Cabrera, I'll be a tad disappointed.

My guess is that Shelby and Jacob Turner will both be ranked ahead of Kenneth McNutt. Can't blame them for that, although I think McNutt is very close to those two. Nate, what was Struck's velocity in his last few games in Peoria? Was he hitting the low 90's? And, can Cerda handle 2nd well enough if he gets more work at it? Would prefer to see Matt as the 2nd baseman, with Logan (if they move up together) as a utility guy.

any news from the chat? I wouldn't be surprised if concerns on the current dominance of Kurcz's breaking ball was more at the root for why he didn't make it, considering his projection is still as a late inning arm.

Davell touched on it in the instructs post, but the Boise Hawks were shutout of the BA NWL rankings. Not the most surprising thing when you step back and think about it - a power arm like Kurcz can be found in the NWL, and Alcantara is still raw tools. Not too surprising ... the lower levels were acknowledged as being weak this year. A bit surprised Kirk didn't make it, but wasn't he sitting low 90's in Boise?

That's as positive a report as I've heard on Alcantara's bat ("some pop"). Here's hoping that develops.

http://www.thecubreporter.com/2010/09/24/ha-gives-cubs-reason-smile AzPhil posts his 2nd update. So ... let's try something different. Part of the comments section in his 2 posts over on TCR talked about guys making a leap forward. So ... who from this year's current Instructs list (it's in the links) could make said leap? Obviously, we don't know, but just to get some conversation going as we follow the news. I'm wondering, if Justin Bour improves his power stroke and takes strides similar to what Guyer did last offseason.

I'd imagine the majority of them will be in XST, barring unforeseen circumstances. There might be one or two that get sent back.

AzPhil has his first Instructional League report. http://www.thecubreporter.com/2010/09/23/golden-rules-instructs Didn't realize Wilson Contreras was playing 3rd now. Looking forward to reading about Ben Wells down there. Didn't realize Hayden Simpson was going to miss instructs.

much as I was okay with the Hayden Simpson pick, seeing Justin O'Connor rank 2nd in the GCL list does make me a touch wistful for what might've been. Granted, O'Connor seems like he needs a lot of work, but he would've been a fascinating bat addition to a system that really could've used it.

I wouldn't get too hopeful for Szczur just yet. If he runs the 4.3ish time that many are expecting, along with the excellent quickness times, he'll work his way up the board a tad. With the proliferation of the spread attack in the NFL, quick guys that can work the middle are more valued than ever, due to their capability to quickly create separation, and the more I hear from folks, people really love Szczur's potential to do that. He needs to have a big season at Villanova, but there's no reason he can't be a solid mid-round pick (3rd-5th round pick) if he has a big year and has good workout numbers, and if that happens, I think he's going to go with football (if his comments are to be believed). I didn't think that was the case awhile back, but asking around, and folks really are intrigued with Szczur's football potential. To be honest, awhile back, I thought his baseball potential was higher than his football potential, but I'm not sure that's the case anymore. His offensive potential in baseball will always be dependent upon his speed, unless the bat develops power that isn't there right now, whereas he can be a key cog in a passing attack. I'm hoping he chooses baseball, but I'm not counting on it right now. I'd love to see him as the everyday CF in Peoria next year.

If Liria and Beeler can really peak in the mid-90's, I'll be fairly intrigued. I didn't think either guy were guys where people had any expectations of mid-90's peak. The way they made Beeler sound, it had me mildly thinking of when Sean Gallagher was coming up in the lower levels (still one of the bigger disappointments for me in recent years, really big on Gallagher and he seems to have just stalled with control issues). I'm hopeful some of the young arms like Hartmann and Richardson take a step forward this offseason now that they have had a taste of pro life. There's enough pitching talent that was in AZL to give me some hope ... positionally, it's just ugly, although I still like Geiger a fair amount. What's the news on Burruel these days?

As good as he was in Boise, I'll be mildly surprised if LePage makes the list. His potential isn't that high. It's possible that he gets on the back side of the list, but I'll be a touch surprised. If I'm taking a guess on NWL for BA, positionally, Alcantara seems like the only guy with a solid shot at cracking the list. I don't think Szczur had enough AB's, and the rest of the bats at Boise this year were fairly pedestrian in regards to prospect status. I'll be curious to hear the reports on his defensive ability there. Offensively, he's got to cut down the K's, but he's young. I'd guess back end of the top 20 (15-20), but I admittedly haven't scanned through all NWL rosters. I have to think Austin Kirk will crack the top 20 list. I really don't recall any negative reports/comments about his NWL time. I'd guess a possible top 10-ish. Aaron Kurcz might have a shot as a 11-20 guy if they really like his stuff to move fast. Will be curious where the two lefties land - Greathouse and Ebinger both had excellent seasons in the NWL. Greathouse gets a lot more pub, partly due to draft status, but I am intrigued with Ebinger. The mechanics look solid, seems to hide the ball fairly well, the changeup is, by most accounts, good, and unlike, say, James Russell, he seems to locate and attack with his fastball a bit better than James did coming up. Breaking ball has to get better, but lefties that throw strikes and have two solid pitches have a chance. I think a lot of us have acknowledged all season long that the lower levels are pretty thin, though, and of these names, only Alcantara and Kirk really excite as of now. Unlike AZL, there aren't any "under-the-radar" guys here that I really have hope (in regards to value/ability) for as of now (out of guys who got a lot of PT in Boise this year). I mean, with AZL, you could point to perhaps Darvill turning it around (and he scuffled in Boise), Geiger perhaps being a sleeper, the young arms like Richardson/Hartmann. Granted, some of those guys may struggle to get going, maybe as soon as Boise, but geesh, this was a lackluster Boise crop. Eliot Soto seems like ... a poor man's Darwin Barney? I liked Harrington for the round he was selected in, but geesh, that wasn't a good 124 AB sample in Boise (granted, small sample). Was never as enthused with Na, and I can only dream that Gibbs can hit enough to move up and be of value, instead of being the new Tony Richie. LePage seems like he could be useful, maybe a "sparkplug" or "grinder" type that surprises, but excitement? Eh. On the pitching side, if there's a guy I'm mildly intrigued with, it'd be Matt Loosen. That said, Loosen's best case seems to be in that Craig Muschko/Mitch Atkins type of mold. Should I be all that enthused with Juan Yasser Serrano? Fitzgerald was a disappointment ... but he's never really been as good as some hoped he'd become 2 summers ago. Here's hoping some of these guys take big steps forward this winter.

Thanks. I did not know that Liria could get up to 94. I thought he was more Robert Hernandez, peaking out low 90's. Beeler's 92/93? Interesting information there. Thought he was a touch lower as well.

BA's starting their league rankings. I'm a bit surprised Austin Reed came in at 11th overall, but he did have a very nice run in Arizona this summer. Will be curious to find out what the scouting report says.

In his blog today, Bruce Miles responded to a comment about the managing job and gave his opinion. Quote and link below. http://blogs.dailyherald.com/node/4659#new

Campana's was an inside-the-park homer.