I'm trying to tidy up my top 30. This is what I have right now (I may post this on Sickels to get some discussion going there, seems like a lot of people are posting individual team lists right now). 1. Brett Jackson, B+. Jackson had an excellent 2010. He posted a .316/.420/.517 line in A+ Daytona with a 13.8% BB rate and a 24% K rate. Moving up to AA Tennessee, he posted a solid .276/.366/.465 line, with a 11.2% BB rate and a 27.6% K rate. For the most part, at both spots, he hit at the top of the order, either leading off or 2nd. He combined to go 30/41 in SB attempts, while hitting 6 HR’s at each spot. All in all, it was an excellent year for the “Golden Retriever”. Despite a solid year, this was not the easiest decision, as I clearly recognize the concerns on the strikeouts, and I’m also cognizant that there are some voices that challenge Brett’s ability to stay in CF long term. That said, I feel like, at the very least, during his cost-controlled years, he should be a solid defensive centerfielder. Offensively, the scouting report is still the same as it’s been, for better or worse. The strikeouts are bothersome, but this is a guy who still handles the bat well enough that he is a fairly solid situational hitter, and Brett is still a guy that is willing and able to take pitches. I’m still hopeful enough that the strikeouts will decrease a tad with more experience. There’s enough power potential to suggest that he might become a possible 20-25 HR guy. Brett runs the bases well, and there are positive reports on his character. The “Golden Retriever” tired down the stretch this year, but he had a really long 2010, so I’m not concerned that much just yet. The indications are that the Cubs have high hopes for him, so it wouldn’t surprise anyone if Brett is in Chicago at some point in 2011. He might not project to be an elite star, but he looks to be a potentially solid centerfielder, offensively and defensively, and that gets the nod for me when there are, IMO, questions about his potential challengers for the top spot. While I haven’t done a top 100 list, I’ll be surprised if Brett isn’t a top 50 prospect. I imagine he’ll start at AA, with a chance to see AAA, and a slim chance to see the bigs. 2. Chris Archer, B+. Until 2010, for many Cubs fans, Archer was simply the 3rd piece in that DeRosa deal, the young, upside arm. Archer ended up having a magnificent 2010 that led to some consideration by BA for minor league player of the year. Starting off in A+ Daytona, he posted a 7-1 record in 15 games (14 starts), with a 2.86 ERA, 10.2 K Rate, 3.24 BB rate, and a 0.50 HR rate in 72.1 innings. He went on to AA Tennessee, going 8-2 in 70 innings (13 GS), with a 1.80 ERA. The peripherals were noticeably weaker, with the K rate at 8.61, the BB rate at 5.01. He was still good at limiting HR’s, posting a 0.26 HR rate. Stuff wise, Archer offers a low-mid 90’s fb that has good movement and sink to it. A lot of reports are posting about how he hit the upper 90’s (and I know a couple people said some stadium guns put him higher than the 97 that has been stated in publications). For the most part, he is, though, still a guy who sits in the low-mid 90’s, a touch better velo than before. He pairs that with a nasty slider (the Cubs have transitioned him to that, although he still throws a curve). The change showed better depth to it this year and is promising. The overall struggles in AA aren’t the biggest deal. It’s a big jump and he did well enough. The concerning aspect is the increase in the BB rate. I wasn’t able to attend as many games this year, but one response I constantly heard was whether or not his stuff was simply too good. Comparisons have been made to Carlos Marmol in some respects, which I find valid enough. Can he harness his stuff enough, while not diminishing it too much? His ceiling might be higher than Brett’s, but I feel much safer about Brett right now than I do about Chris, although working on a recent Cubs prospect list with very knowledgeable folks, there are those who disagree, and I can understand why. I have him ahead of McNutt, even though I might feel safer about McNutt as well, because Archer has more performance in the upper levels and because his stuff seems to be a notch better. His ceiling seems to be a possible 2, with his floor perhaps as a power pen arm. I think he’s a borderline top 50 prospect, but at the very least, a top 75 prospect. I think he’ll be at AAA, with a chance to see big league action. He needs to be added to the 40 man this winter. 3. Kenneth McNutt, borderline B+ For me, Kenneth “Trey” McNutt is the last of the top tier for the Cubs, but others have disagreed. The late round pick got 115 K from the Cubs, and so far, has been a great return. He went through 3 levels in 2010, starting at low A Peoria, going 6-0 in 59.2 innings (13 GS), with a 1.51 ERA, 10.56 K rate, 3.62 BB rate, and a 0 HR rate. Moving up to Daytona for 9 starts and 41 innings, he went 4-0, with a 2.63 rate, 10.76 K/9, 1.98 BB/9, and a 0.66 HR/9. He ended with 3 starts in AA in the regular season, going 0-1 in 15.2 innings, with a 5.74 ERA, 7.47 K/9, 2.30 BB/9, and a 1.15 HR/9. He had an excellent postseason with 2 solid starts, although the Smokies lost his game against Jacksonville. McNutt comes armed with a mid-90’s power fastball that is coupled with an excellent curveball. Both have been described as potential plus pitches. The changeup has received mixed reviews most of the year, but there is some promise to it. Overall, I buy that his control/command is solid, and in that respect, I think he is probably a slightly safer bet to reach the bigs as a starter than Archer. At the end of the day, I just want to see more from McNutt in the upper levels before jumping him up. I came close to putting him at 1 and 2, but I want to see how his stuff holds up over the long haul against upper level hitters. I think he has the potential to be a possible 2. I think he’s a possible top 50 prospect as well, but at the very least, I think he’s a top 75 prospect. I imagine he’ll be in AA to start, with a chance to see AAA, and an outside chance to see the bigs. For me, that’s the top tier of the Cubs system. I know there are knowledgeable folks that would disagree on a player, and I can respect that and understand their arguments. The 2nd tier is a bit trickier, and I think, as there was in our discussion, healthy disagreement on who they are and what order to place them. For the most part, most people acknowledge that there are around 4-5 guys to fit in here. 4. Chris Carpenter, borderline B. My nod at 4 goes to Christopher Carpenter. The Kent State product was once considered a possible first round pick, but fell to the Cubs in the 3rd round in the 2008 draft due to health reasons (TJ mainly, although IIRC, there were some knee issues). Carpenter went 8-6 in 23 starts (119.2 innings), posting a 3.08 ERA, 7.52 K/9, 3.61 BB/9, and a 0.38 HR/9 before getting 3 starts in AAA. He went back to AA for the postseason. Overall, not the flashiest line, but he finished strong. He had arm issues again (I forget what it is right now). Carpenter comes armed with a mid-90’s fastball, a good slider, and a decent change that got better in 2010. The potential is there to be a possible mid-rotation arm, although it is fair to question if the durability issues will push him to the pen. I am pleased that, at the end of 2010, Carpenter will have thrown around 150 innings (he’s in AFL right now), which is a healthy amount, and when combined with his upper level status and potential, I gave him the nod over the next set of guys. I imagine he’ll be in AAA to start, with a chance to see some big league time. 5. Hak-ju Lee, borderline B. The Korean product had a solid 2010, posting a .282/.354/.351 line in Low A Peoria. He had a really hot July in there, but held his own for the most part. He walked 8.9% of the time, while striking out 17.7% of the time. He went 32/39 in SB attempts. I’ve compared him, offensively, to Che-Hsuan Lin in the past, and I still think that’s a fair comparison. Lee’s speed is still good, although he’s a bit more filled out and I’m not sure he is as fast as before. Defensively, Lee has very good potential, showing good lateral movement and arm strength. Like many young shortstops, defensive consistency is an issue. Hak-ju can’t afford to lose that much speed as he matures, unless he adds more power than anyone anticipated. Overall, though, he’s a fine shortstop prospect. He’s just so far away and with a fringy bat and defensive consistency issues, I just prefer Carpenter a touch more. I imagine he’ll be at Daytona most of the year. 6. Josh Vitters, B-. I’ll be curious how people rank Vitters this winter. In a recent Cubs prospect discussion, there were some arguments for him to go higher, and he ended up slotting a spot higher. I can understand the case that people made (age, BABIP, showed some improvement, upside), but I feel like Lee and Carpenter are a bit safer while offering enough upside. The just turned 21 year old started out in A+ Daytona, posting a .291/.350/.445 line, walking 6.7% of the time, while striking out 20% of the time. He got on a hot streak and was promoted to AA, where he posted a .223/.292/.383 line, walking 5.7% of the time, and striking out 19.9 % of the time before he got hurt. The BABIP in AA was .247. Defensively, Vitters will never be an elite 3rd baseman, and may have to move down the line (he may move sooner, Cubs are rumored to be pondering using him at 1st more in 2011), but he’s passable enough that he could probably stick for a few years. It really comes down to the bat. Give Josh credit – he did make improvements. He walked a bit more, although that also led to more strikeouts. He’s never really dominated a level, but to be fair, the Cubs, after being careful with him early, have pushed him up every time he got on a hot streak. His bat upside is still excellent … but can he find that balance? Swinging away at pitcher’s pitches has limited his overall power production as well. No one doubts his power potential – but he hasn’t put up quality enough power numbers. I hope he is at AA all year. 7. Jay Jackson, B-. Jay Jackson was in AAA Iowa all year, where he went 11-8 in 32 games (25 starts), going 157.1 innings with a 4.63 ERA, 6.81 K/9, 2.75 BB/9, and a 1.14 HR/9. I don’t think any Cubs fans were really pleased with the shifting that Cashner and Jay Jackson had this year. It’s easy to forget how fast he’s risen up the system – this is his 2nd full season of pro ball, and he was considered a relatively raw collegiate arm. His arm action is still considered fine, and Jay can still pump low-mid 90’s on his fastball. The secondary pitches, though, got mixed reviews. Overall, the promise that his slider showed in the lower levels never really materialized. The slider is fairly average, the curveball and change need work. I feel safer about Jay Jackson reaching the bigs than I do about Vitters, but Vitters ceiling won out for the 6th spot for me. There were some positives to Jay’s season, and namely, the improved control. Can he improve his secondary offerings enough, while maintaining the newfound control? Best case right now seems to be a 3/4 starter or a late inning pen arm. I have wondered if he would be better off in the pen focusing on one breaking pitch and letting his fastball rip (some guns had him hitting upper 90’s last year in short spurts). I expect him to be at AAA to start, with a chance that he joins the Cubs pen later in the year. 8. Junior Lake, borderline B-. In our recent discussions, Junior Lake finished higher than this, and I can understand the arguments for it. Lake played in A+ Daytona all year, posting a .264/.333/.398 line, walking 7.8% of the time while striking out 25.1% of the time. There is an argument that Lake has the highest ceiling of any young Cub, including Starlin Castro. He’s more toolsy than Castro. The chances are high that Junior will have to move off shortstop, though, as he’s been inconsistent there. With Lee not really pushing him just yet, Lake will probably get another year at SS. He has good power potential, and could probably fit at 2nd or 3rd. The problem I have is that he really hot one hot streak this year to prop up his numbers (June/July) before cooling down a bit. I want to see more consistency in performance before pushing him up. The esteemed AzPhil of TCR has noted how the kid was a bit rough around the edges, so he has had to adjust and learn to accept teaching. The potential is through the roof, though. I expect him to spend most of the year at AA. For me, that’s the end of the Cubs 2nd tier. It’s a bit off a mess after this, and I have a lot of guys loosely bunched together that you could make the case to sort them in a number of different arrangements. I’m going to cut down on the writing. 9. Reggie Golden. This is a pure upside nod to the Cubs 2nd round pick. An argument could be made that his bat upside is the highest in the system, and he showed that potential in instructs. That said, he is very raw around the edges and needs a lot of work, offensively and defensively. I’m guessing XST, and then either AZL or Boise. 10. Ben Wells. I figure I’ll be called out for this ranking, but as of this writing, I feel comfortable doing this. The 7th round pick got his first taste of pro work at instructs. After so much time off, he was building up his arm strength, according to AzPhil of thecubreporter. His secondary pitches were solid in instructs (slider and splitter). This is purely an upside nod, but here’s a big hoss of a kid (240ish at instructs), who has a low 90’s fastball and may add to it, along with good secondary options and a decent feel for pitching. This is a big workhorse body. Purely upside right now, but his arm upside might be as good as anyone that is of prospect status (certainly, he’s not nearly as ready as McNutt or Archer, so don’t mistake my wording here). I’m comfortable enough with this, but fully acknowledge that this is a pure upside nod, like Golden. I’m guessing XST will be his 2011 starting point. 11. Hayden Simpson. The hotly debated first round pick missed pitching professionally due to mono. I was tempted to keep him ahead of Golden and Wells, but the weight loss bothered me enough and Golden’s offensive upside seems that good and I like Ben Wells arm upside more. There’s no doubt that at one point this year, he was throwing mid-90’s with 2 solid breaking pitches and a decent change. There’s also no doubt that he tired at one point, with his fastball dropping down a bit, and his secondary stuff not being as sharp. Was it a case of being overworked, or was it some other reason? How one feels about that will likely determine where they place him. I tend to think of him as being similar to Jay Jackson a bit. If he’s healthy, I could see the Cubs push him to Peoria, although starting at XST is possible. 12. Brandon Guyer. Guyer had a superb 2010, finishing with a ridiculous 2nd half. He won Cubs offensive player of the year (or positional, I forget what the award is right now), posting a .344/.398/.598 line in his 2nd turn in AA, walking 6.6% of the time and striking out 13.8% of the time. Like Colvin, the Cubs worked on improving Guyer’s arm strength, and he was a better defensive OF this year. He’s long had one of the better toolsets in the Cubs system. So … why isn’t he higher? It’s not as if the age is a significant issue. I mean, he’s not young, but he’s not old. At the end of the day, I’m still not sold that he’s a starting OF. The comparisons have been made to Eric Byrnes and Reed Johnson. He’s a hustle, go after it guy, but he doesn’t have great power potential, and it’s questionable if he could hit .300 in the bigs. He feels like a solid 4th OF type who could perhaps platoon/part-time start. I’m just not sure he’s a starting OF and that ended up pushing him down to 11 for me, although a case could be made for him at 9. I think he’ll be in AAA, but don’t be surprised if he sees the bigs soon. He needs to be protected this winter and likely will be. 13. Jin-Yeong Kim. The South Korean HS product is the latest Cubs big signing in Asia. The reports from instructs were positive. He reportedly has a fastball that tops out around 92/93, 2 decent-solid breaking balls, and a decent change. I’m thinking XST to start 2011, but it’s possible they bump him up to Peoria. 14. Robinson Chirinos. Chirinos was one of the hardest guys for me to place. The biggest issue is his age. If he was 2 years younger, you could make the case for him to be a top 10 in the system. The former MI is 26, though. He had a monstrous year at AA, but I know there are folks that question those offensive numbers (and there were splits issues – granted, he didn’t struggle against righties either). For the most part, most people acknowledge that he has shown offensive improvement. Defensively, the reports seem to suggest that he might be one of the better defensive catchers out there. He has a superb work ethic and is known as a good mentor (was known as Starlin’s mentor, and some rumors were that the Cubs kept him around with the idea that they might develop a good coaching candidate). Slowly, there are some folks that believe he might be a starting catcher, although projecting him as a backup backstop is more reasonable. I can understand moving him up or down. He needs to be protected this winter and likely will be. Likely in AAA, but could be in the bigs depending on the Cubs backup C situation. 15. Alberto Cabrera. I pondered sliding him ahead of Chirinos, but I’m not completely sold on Cabrera as a starter. That said, Alberto had a very solid campaign. The just-turned 22 year old started in A+. He got a bump to AA before struggling and getting demoted back to A+. He should start 2011 in AA. Cabrera comes armed with a mid-90’s fastball and a decent slider. Consistency on the slider is much needed. Changeup needs work. 16. Chris Rusin. I feel like putting him higher, but enough people have commented on his relative lack of upside that I slid him down a bit as a result. The polished 4th rounder showed that the Cubs got what they signed up for when they drafted him. After coming back from the DL, he was strong at A+ with a 8.31 K rate and a 1.48 BB rate, with a 0.58 HR/9. He went on to be solid at AA, posting a 7.11 BB/9, 1.89 K/9 in limited work. He’ll likely start 2011 in AA. He is what he is – a strike throwing lefty with a high 80’s fastball, decent slider, decent change. 17. Brooks Raley. Cubs fans joked about good Raley and bad Raley. He was very off and on early in the year. He finished strong, though, with a good run from July-September. He had, overall, a 6.4 K/9 and a 2.84 BB/9. I like Raley more than Rusin, as I can dream about the athletic Raley adding/improving his stuff as he gets more accustomed to pitching full-time. Right now, though, Raley’s stuff is, as expected, average like Rusin’s, featuring a fastball that tops out in the low 90’s, with decent secondary pitches. It’s not enough for me to jump him over Rusin’s polish just yet. I expect him to start 2011 in AA. 18. Jeffry Antigua. Antigua had himself a solid year in Peoria. He comes armed with a high 80’s fastball that occasionally touhes low 90, and he has a solid change and a decent slider. With that arsenal, he posted a 8.52 K rate and a 3.19 BB rate in Peoria. He might not have the ceiling some dreamed for once, but he looks like a potential solid lefty starting prospect who should be in A+ next year. 19. Ryan Flaherty. The former supplemental first round pick had an interesting year. After a strong season at Peoria in 2009, he was given a chance to start in Tennessee. While he posted solid discipline numbers, his bat struggled in the 84 AB’s he had there (BABIP .200). He was sent down to A+, where he had a relatively solid year, posting a .286/.348/.445 line. Defensively, in another system, he might’ve had a chance to make it up as a shortstop, but he’s played more 2nd/3rd, and in AFL, he picked up an OF glove. He’s still an intriguing guy with some pop, good athleticism, a good approach at the plate. The comparisons to Mark DeRosa/Jeff Baker types of players may hold true. Look for him to start 2011 in AA, but likely in a utility type role, getting time at 2nd/3rd, perhaps corner OF, and perhaps an occasional look at short when someone needs a breather (probably Lake). 20. Matt Cerda. The Cubs finally ditched the catching experiment with Cerda, and he went on to have a solid season in Peoria. He posted a .271/.365/.377 line in Peoria, striking out 15.1% of the time while walking 12.8% of the time. He started off at 3rd base, as Logan Watkins was considered the regular 2nd baseman entering the year. As the season progressed, Cerda got more 2nd base time. The reports were positive on his ability to play 2nd and 3rd. While he does have some pop in his bat, his chances of making it up at 2nd is probably higher. I look for him to be playing 2nd and 3rd in A+ Daytona next year. I like him better than Flaherty, in all honesty, but I want to see that power develop and performance at upper levels before I jump Cerda up more. 21. Nick Struck. I’m probably higher on Struck than many others . The athletic overslot kid (125 K, former shortstop in HS, IIRC) had a solid 2010. He showed, as expected, a low 90’s fastball that topped at 93 with good secondary pitches. There are some expectations that he may add velo as he physically matures. He had a decent run at Peoria and then got bumped to Daytona. I like his upside. He’ll likely start in A+ to start 2011. 22. Jae-Hoon Ha. A lot of Cubs fans are far higher on Ha than I am. The Korean was tried at catcher, but they moved him off. Last year, a wrist injury sapped his power in Boise. Ha offers excellent tools, with power potential, athleticism, and a good strong arm. Moving up to Boise this year, he put those tools to good use, posting a .317/.334/.468 line. The part that bothers me is the 15.4% K rate and the 3.2% BB Rate. I guess seeing so many of those guys come through the system has me unnecessarily wary of Ha at the moment. There is a reasonable case to put him in the top 15. I’m also not completely sold on the power ceiling some suggest. 23. Darwin Barney. There’s a part of me that wants to solid the Oregon State product up a few notches. While I think projectprospect’s ranking of him was too high, I do think Darwin is a tad underrated. Here’s a guy who has better athleticism than acknowledged, has good range and plays a solid short. He’s not an elite bat, and a bit aggressive at the plate considering his limited offense. That said, he sees breaking balls well enough that he shouldn’t be a complete zero offensively. He’s more suited for a utility infielder role, but it isn’t inconceivable to see him as a starter for a 2nd tier squad. 24. DJ LeMahieu. People have been waiting for DJ to add power for a long time. At this point, it’s just not likely to happen barring a surprise. He posted a .314/.346/.386 line in A+ Daytona before getting the bump to Tennessee. He got some time at short, but also spent plenty of time at 2nd and 3rd. There are some who think the Cubs believe he is best suited, defensively, at 3rd, but I don’t see any way that bat plays for 3rd base. His glovework is decent-solid overall, and like Flaherty, he probably could’ve made it up as a shortstop, at least up to AA, in another system. I don’t like the fact that he only walks 4.8% of the time. To me, he feels like a utility infielder type at best. He should be in AA for 2011, likely splitting time between 2nd/SS/3rd. 25. Dae-Eun Rhee. The highly touted Rhee came onto the scene in 2008 in Peoria, before getting TJ. He came back to fullseason duty this year at Daytona … and was disappointing. That said, for his first year back, I’m willing to grant a mulligan. Furthermore, he wasn’t throwing his devastating splitter. If he can regain that pitch and throw it with consistency, he could make a quick move back up the prospect lists for me. If not, he’ll drop like a rock. My other concern with Rhee is durability. Leave aside the TJ for a moment – he’s not a big guy and he might not be able to handle the workload to stay as a starter. 26. Welington Castillo. Upper level catcher has improved defensively, although still needs more work. Offensively, has some pop, but doesn’t make enough contact. Likely a backup backstop at best. 27. Aaron Kurcz. Kurcz is likely a fast-track pen arm with a mid-90’s fastball and a good, hard slider. There’s a chance that the Cubs may give him a spin as a starter, but his future is likely in the pen. While he hasn’t reached AA like Dolis, I gave him the nod over Dolis because reports on Kurcz’s secondary stuff is better. 28. Rafael Dolis. Dolis had a great Instruct start last fall, showing his upper 90’s fastball and a solid slider and a decet change. Unfortunately, that slider was very inconsistent in 2010. His future is likely in the pen, but the Cubs may keep him in the AA rotation to start 2011 in an effort to get him more work on his secondary pitches. While he doesn’t strike out nearly enough for a guy with that type of fastball, he does a good job keeping the ball in the park that, if he develops more consistency on the slider, it’s possible to see him as a good late-inning arm. 29. Brett Wallach. I gave Wallach the nod over Lopez on polish right now, although Lopez has the higher ceiling. I’m not real sold that Wallach will add the velocity some have suggested he could, but it is a possibility, and he has more polished secondary pitches at the moment. 30. Robinson Lopez. I’m not nearly as high on Lopez as others are. I just don’t see it. Now, I slotted him in the top 30 because he does offer great upside, but I’m not sure what he offers that, say, makes him better than Rafael Dolis? His fastball is probably better, but is it enough to overcome Dolis being somewhat productive in the upper levels? I don’t see the case for it, but on upside, he deserves to be here.
