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Not really surprised with Beliveau and Kirk, the former because he's a pen arm, the latter because I think we're all sort of waiting to see how his stuff shows in full-season. I don't think Kirk was on everyone's top 30 list. Rusin not making it is a bit surprising, though.

Alberto Cabrera - 11 Robinson Chirinos - 16 Welington Castillo - 17 Logan Watkins - 21 Ryan Flaherty - 22 Matt Cerda - 31 Not in top 30: Jeff Beliveau (just missed) Micah Gibbs Chris Rusin (close to the top 30) Austin Kirk (close to the top 30) Evan Crawford The one that really surprises me is Chris Rusin missing. He was so polished and so productive, I thought he would make it. Speaks to his low ceiling, I guess, but ... Logan Watkins over Rusin? Don't see it right now, unless they feel Rusin is more JR Mathes, but I hadn't heard anyone suggest that Rusin was a system arm. Out of curiosity, did they specifically mention Evan Crawford for some reason?

They make Ha's best case sound like Brandon Guyer, which isn't bad, but it felt like some folks loved him a lot more than that.

I'm guessing that the Pirates top heavy system just lacks the depth, because otherwise, in terms of elite talent, I doubt anyone has a trio that can really match up with Taillon, Allie, and Heredia. Of course, all three are so far away and so raw, that certainly factors in. I can't say I really love the Reds system right now. Aroldis is great ... but I feel like he's a pen arm. I feel like the hype on Billy Hamilton is a bit ridiculous. Don't love Mesoraco just yet (I saw Devin a few times early in 2010 ... it sounded like he had a strong summer so maybe he's improved a lot).

Dan (Lansing): What can you tell me about Dallas Beeler? Jim Callis: Another good sleeper from the 2010 draft. Had Tommy John surgery at Oral Roberts, throwing 92-95 again and also showing a promising slider. If Beeler is really throwing in the mid-90's already (I thought he was more low 90's, occasionally touching mid-90's) ... then I'll be very curious next year. Heard the changeup was fairly solid, IIRC, and he has a good feel to pitching. If that's the case ... did they mine another late round sleeper? Granted, at some point, I'd like positional depth ... but it's nice to talk about a deep pitching system. This is the best our system's pitching has been since 03 probably (here's hoping more of these guys pan out, though).

I'm just not sure how Logan Watkins is still in the top 30. I thought the same way last year when many had Junior Lake still up there, so here's hoping Logan proves me wrong. For a guy with minimal power, he strikes out a lot. He seems like a useful IF/OF type backup that offers some speed.

This is the most surprising thing I've taken away from the BA stuff. I'm surprised by Szczur and Dolis, but there are cases for both. 8th? I know the farm systems are rather bunched this year, but there's enough upper tier guys to garner 8th? Surprised me, that's for sure (and the idea that we would be competing for the 2nd best system behind the Royals had Cashner and Castro qualified ... ). This feels like they are saying that Archer and/or B. Jackson are elite prospects, because I don't know how a system ranks that high without one or two elite prospects. To be fair, their writeup on Archer makes him sound elite.

The one thing that this system has is solid pitching depth. We're going to have very intriguing rotations at almost every level of the system, including XST/shortseason (where I expect Hartman and Richardson to be). I do hope Wells gets to full season ball next year.

Intriguing comments. I still have my doubts on LeMahieu and power ... but if he can hit 15 AND maintain his contact ability, then he could stick at 3rd. I did not know Szczur had that level of power. I really hope the Cubs up their offer to him a bit. I get the feeling, from everything I understand, that he's headed for the NFL. Nate was rather positive on Cerda's ability to play 2nd. I really, really hope that Cerda can play 2nd. Interesting that Golden's power is plus-plus, but Brett get best power. Goes to show that they are talking about "playing power".

What about him? I hadn't heard much of anything about him, other than the Cubs could see him developing into another McNutt type steal...... As for Szczur, I've heard upside comps of Carl Crawford somewhere, so if that's the case, I could see the hype starting behind him anyway. As for the Cubs having the 8th best system in baseball? Holy crap. Not sure what else to say. I would have bet we'd have been somewhere in the 13-17 range and felt comfortable about it. I know BA is extremely high on Archer, I guess it's not going to surprise me to see him somewhere in the top 30 or so now, maybe Brett makes it into that general area as well...... I believe AzPhil speculated that Beeler could amp up his velo a bit more, or maybe it was someone else. But if Beeler can run it in the mid-90s with his two solid secondary offerings, that's a potential middle of the rotation type arm.

couple comments - a) I do not mean to imply that Lake will be an elite defender. I don't believe I said that, if that implication was read from my statements, I do apologize. The ability is there for him to be a good defensive player, but he has to iron out some things. b) By no means should this be read as me being big on Junior Lake. I've said elsewhere that I'm actually quite lukewarm on Lake (in fact, over on another site, I thought Lake was the most likely Cubs prospect to bust in 2011). I like to see some level of offensive consistency out of guys. To his credit, Lake did have a very solid 2nd half. c) If anything, as I said above, this should be viewed as that I like Lee, am intrigued and excited by Lee (if Starlin "owns' shortstop, making it hard for the Cubs to move him off the position, I wouldn't mind seeing Hak-ju in CF, allowing Brett to bulk up some more and focus on his offense), but feel the hype on Lee is a bit much and d) Whether or not the judgments on Lake (including my own lists) are perhaps somewhat more reflective upon the concerns he had last year.

Few thoughts: 1) Brandon Guyer - focused only on baseball at UVA. I'm starting to buy into the idea that he has improved enough to get a chance to be a starting OF in the bigs (that said, I had always viewed him as an Eric Byrnes/Reed Johnson type, and both of those guys started in the bigs a bit as well). My guess is that he'll likely start in Iowa, as I think it'll be hard for him to break north with the way the roster is currently set up. Not impossible, though. 2) Chris Carpenter and Jay jackson - I believe both of these guys will probably get a look this year. They both could have sleeper chances to break north, since many of our current middle relief options aren't power arms (Marcos Mateo is about the only one that really can run the fastball up there), but I think both start in Iowa. 3) Chris Archer and Brett Jackson - It sure feels like the organization is pushing both of these kids hard. Personally, I'd like to see Jackson start in AA, but I think the org may be hoping for him to be up by midseason. If Archer has a strong run, I could see them push him up for rotation duty in the late summer. 4) Alberto Cabrera - I could see him emerge and join the big league squad out of the pen. I'm not that sold that he'll make it as a starter, so I could see a scenario where he struggles a bit in AA, gets shifted to the pen and moves up. His breaking ball is more consistent than Dolis', by most accounts.

Patton should've been released after 2009, but to say that the Rule 5 pick showed arrogance/ignorance on our front office's part ... I think that's probably a bit of a stretch. The thing is, Patton was a semi-intriguing arm in 2008 with the Rockies. He posted fairly solid numbers in A+ (10+ K rate, mid 3 walk rate). Sure, he was a bit older, but he also came armed with a fastball that peaked in the mid-upper 90's and a good breaking ball. It was an intriguing gamble to find pen help at a low cost. The problem is, his stuff collapsed with us, and his arm seemingly was never as good as it was in the Rockies system.

I think most people view him as a top 5ish prospect right now. The problem with Lee filling out is that a) It diminishes his one plus asset right now, which is speed (there have been some ... talk ... that his speed is less than what it was in Boise and AZL ... I don't think anyone really thinks that he is 170 at the start of a season ... I believe the rumored number this year, at the start, was in the 180 range). Frame guesswork would suggest that weight gain would be lower half. b) His power is never going to be a plus asset, and it's likely never going to be an above average asset. Can he develop enough power to offset the speed loss? To do so means reworking his swing (I haven't seen much loft, and most reports suggest that). I'm not saying I'm not excited about Lee. I'm just ... lukewarm in that excitement and wonder if the judgments on Lake have been a bit hasty (haven't seen Lake ranked all that high this offseason, most have him in that 8-20 range it seems). I'm also not saying I'm not intrigued with Lee. My initial purpose was to question whether or not Lee should be significantly ahead of Lake (most people have Lee borderline top 5). As a side note, if he posts an .800 OPS year, he'd be a solid top 3 in the system. That would mean that he's showcasing some legit power, in all likelihood (or is having an insane, Guyer-esque (2nd half) year.

The Cubs seem to have a lot of borderline pitching prospects that, since we don't really have room for them in the rotation, could turn out to be good bullpen arms. I don't really see Carpenter, Jackson, Rusin, Raley, etc. ever being regular SP for us but I can easily see getting a couple very good relievers out of the bunch. And I know this is really really premature, but I'm already excited for when Kurcz is ready to take over as our closer. He just toyed with those idiot batters he faced in Boise. I'm excited about Kurcz, but a lot of those idiot batters he faced won't get past A ball. Let's wait and see before setting him as the closer of the future. I wouldn't be surprised if one or two of those arms developed into solid rotation arms. Carpenter has the pitches - a bit of improvement on the command could make him a 3/4 type arm. Rusin/Raley are lefties with enough ability that I could see them crack the end of a rotation. Raley has a bit more upside as well.

Lake has plus range at short and a plus arm. His movement is a bit choppy, but he has the raw tools to be an good defensive shortstop. Of course, movement has to improve for that to happen. One thing to keep in mind about his error totals from this year - he played in Daytona, and that field is notoriously bad. Most indications are that the general view of Lake's defense is that he improved tremendously. Lee certainly has better defensive potential than Lake, but it's not by that much. On Lake vs. Lee's offense - Lee's positive case scenario is a slap hitting, Juan Pierre type of offensive player (best case would be something like Frankie Pilere's assessment - he suggested that Lee could slap a few HR's). Lake has far more power potential than Lee - Lake arguably has one of the higher power potentials in the entire system (granted, that isn't saying much, but he has 20-25 HR power if he develops). Lee's average advantage is tied into plus speed (and I really question if he's a 70 speed guy anymore ... is he still top 5 in our system in regards to pure speed ... I'm not so sure (not that being top 5 in speed relates to what type of speed he has)). If he fills out and loses any of that speed ... what's he left with offensively? Both Lake and Lee have to show some level of offensive consistency. Lee's 2nd half was better, but that was bolstered by a hot July, and I believe July was Lake's hot month, off the top. We're talking about, unless he develops some power, a really fringy bat in Lee whose offensive value is tied up in his speed. If he played any other position besides shortstop, we'd be talking about a C/C+ type prospect. He can get away with fringe offense at short, but he needs to be elite defensively, and he's not there yet.

Oh, and I'd rate Cerda higher. Good apporach, a chance for a bit more power, solid defensively. More of a high floor guy than a ceiling guy, but there's a lot of boom/bust in our under 20 list (obviously), and he's actually somewhat safe.

I haven't really pondered an under 20 list, but thinking about it today ... Should Hak-ju Lee really be above Junior Lake? I ask this in all seriousness. Yes, there's defensive upside with Lee. He could be really, really good defensively ... but he is not there yet, and not even close to there yet. Offensively, outside of one or two voices, the reality is, I've thought his best case was a Che-Hsuan Lin type guy, and I still feel that way (that is, a speedy offensive player with a fringy bat). Lost amidst the discussion on Lake's approach and consistency is the fact that he really improved defensively this year. He has the tools to be good at short if he stayed there. Lee's probably got a higher floor than Lake ... but ... is that enough to compensate for a gigantic gulf in potential (IMO)? I think it's an interesting discussion that hasn't been focused on this offseason. I feel like Lee was hyped a lot and skates a bit in the discussion on his flaws, whereas a lot of folks, including myself, were really down on Lake last year, and thus, sort of like the BCS, made it tougher for him to rise up a ton because, well, he's starting from further back. I should note that I'm not in love with Lake - I'd like to see some level of solid offensive consistency before feeling too positive, so perhaps this should be viewed as my being lukewarm on the Lee train.

According to BA's minor league transactions http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/?p=10709 We said goodbye to Jeremy Papelbon, David Patton, and Andres Quezada.

I figured with a lot of pieces in place, it might be nice to call this thread up again for discussion. Granted, we'll probably add some NRI's and other minor league vets, so the picture isn't set. Here's my current positional guesses at the I-Cubs C - Robinson Chirinos, Welington Castillo, Chris Robinson (Could see Chirinos or Castillo start the year with the bigs, if they have a big spring or if Soto isn't 100% ready for behind the plate duty) IF - Scott Moore, Marquez Smith, Tony Thomas, Matt Camp, ? (or Barney) OF - Brandon Guyer, Brett Jackson, Tony Campana, Bryan LaHair, Brad Snyder Thoughts: My hunch is that if Brett Jackson has a strong spring, the Cubs may let him break with the I-Cubs. I put a question mark in the IF column because I anticipate the Cubs going after a FA MI to compete for the backup utility infielder job with Barney, with the loser going to AAA. I'd guess that Snyder/LaHair would split time at first, along with the catchers. Feels like they could perhaps add another righty bat to the mix, but was targeting 13 positional, 11 pitchers, but it's possible they go 14/10. Overall, the I-Cubs should once again be a competitive squad in the PCL (as the pitching staff looks good, but I'm too lazy to go through that right now). Most likely to be sent to AA? My guess is probably Scott Moore (or if my guess is wrong on Brett). I think guys like LaHair, if they don't make the squad, likely get cut. Here's my current positional guess at the Smokies - C - Steve Clevenger, Michael Brenly IF - Josh Vitters, DJ LeMahieu, Junior Lake, Blake Lalli, Nate Samson, Jake Opitz or David Macias type OF - James Adduci, Matt Spencer, Ty Wright, Ryan Flaherty, Marwin Gonzalez Thoughts: Was targeting 13/11 again. Left Ridling off the list, as it seems like Vitters will get time at first, and there are also guys like Matt Spencer, Blake Lalli, and Ryan Flaherty that could grab some time. If we sign some more minor league vets, I could see guys like Adduci and Wright be on thin ice, so to speak. There's enough versatile utility options.

I'm not too worried about that list yet. As of now, the only must protects for me are Carpenter/Jay Jackson, and I expect Vitters will be protected. And if a trade happens, I think Carpenter or Jay Jackson would be near the top of the list in regards to prospects going out, particularly if the Cubs hold firm and protect B. Jax and Archer (McNutt topping the list of likely guys to be moved). I'd guess 5 or 6 guys get protected. Hard to see most of those guys sticking for a full year. I like guys like Matt Spencer and Marquez Smith, but as of now, neither is a must-protect for me (I could see Marquez become a must-protect next year out of necessity). The org was reportedly high on Sommer this year, and they didn't protect him. I could see Beliveau make a ... Gaub-ian move and deserve protection, but even then, a LOOGY isn't a must protect (more of a if we can, why not). I like Muschko and Flaherty, but neither are must-protects (although I anticipate the Cubs protecting Flaherty as a utility player. Baker could get costly after 2011, so if Flaherty is solid enough, he could grab that bench role). I'm still intrigued with the potential of Bristow, but he has to show what he has first.

Solid arm, solid range. I don't think it's a plus arm. I'm trying to debate which players to challenge in Sickels preliminary list. I think Matt Cerda should be on there instead of Marco Carrillo. Outside of that, no clear cut guy to replace where there is someone definitively more intriguing. Asked him what his limit was, though.

This might be a tad odd coming from someone who was okay with the fact that he was left exposed for Rule 5 and from someone that doesn't think there's a big loss if Scott Moore was our regular I-Cubs 3rd baseman in 2011, but a part of me feels like Marquez Smith is perhaps getting underrated a bit. The highest I've seen Marquez this offseason is 17th with AzPhil and uh, 22 or 23 with Bedo's list in the other thread. The rest of us seem to have him in the 30's. My issues with ranking Marquez high typically have to do with what he lacks (versatility, raw power) ... but he is a solid defender at 3rd and no one really questions his line drive power, his potential to be a 15-20 HR guy, his solid enough approach at the plate, and his bat speed. I mean, there is enough there to suggest that he'd be a passable starter for a couple years, while some guys that are getting ranked ahead of him are more utility player types as of now, unless they make improvements. Anyhow, was pondering this because a lot of people are talking about Steve Parker of the A's as a top prospect, and from the little I know about Parker (good defender, more 15-20 HR power, good discipline/approach), I'm just not sure I see the dramatic difference between Parker and Marquez, outside of age/level right now (I mean ... Parker's probably a better defensive guy and shows better discipline). Parker's a tad ahead of Marquez on the age-track, but nothing significant (Marquez also first reached A+ at 23, while Parker turned 23 late this year).

Okay, here's a random thing I was pondering the other day that sort of ties into the previous conversation in this thread. How would you rank the fastballs of our top pitching prospects (so no Cashner)? Just fastballs. ___________ As a side note, I don't know if it was ever mentioned here, but in this Jayson Stark article, they did note http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&page=rumblings101117 I'd be happy if he simply made it as a starter.

MLBTR has the Cubs resigning Bryan LaHair. Well, we should have a pretty good I-Cubs squad next year.