toonsterwu

I'm still messing around with mine in my spare time, but I think it'd be 1. Brett Jackson - Still think he'll be a 3-4 WAR CF sooner than later. He may move to the corners eventually, but at least, through most of his cost-controlled years, I think he'll play CF unless someone better comes along. 2. Trey McNutt - I gotta say, I've got some mild concerns on how effective that changeup is. All that said, he's performing well and still has a possible ceiling of a 2 type starter. 3. Robert Whitenack - I'm a big turbo sinker guy, provided they have good secondary options. Whitenack has capable secondary options, and a sinker that peaks in the mid-90's is a tantalizing go to pitch. I don't think he has McNutt's ceiling as a starter (view his ceiling more as a 3, possibly more of a 4), but I do think he might be safer than McNutt, as a starter. 4. Matt Szczur - I was debating this spot longer than I should have. This is more an upside nod, but most people believe he will develop power, and I just like his approach a ton better than Ha's. 5. Jae-Hoon Ha - I just don't like the K/BB, but he's toolsy and performing. Maybe he's an exception and not the rule. Only time will tell. 6. Ryan Flaherty - He cooled off for a stretch, but bounced back with a great run of late. He's got a good approach, hits righties and lefties. He has legit power and I'm not concerned if he's in a corner spot (as it relates to his power playing there. Problem is, where does he play? If he's good enough, he'll find a spot. 3rd makes some sense, corner OF works as well. I think the best move is to shift Flaherty to Iowa, so that Ryan and DJ can both get more 3rd base time (rather than the two of them rotating with Vitters at AA, Ryan could rotate with Marquez at AAA). 7. DJ LeMahieu - Tempted to put him 4th, as the power development is promising, enough to make me think his bat could play at 3rd if they opted that route (and it'd be a good bat at 2nd). 8. Josh Vitters - He's got a higher ceiling than LeMahieu/Flaherty overall, a better offensive ceiling than most in the system, but I want to see some positive offensive consistency. 9. Nick Struck - Debated Struck or Kirk as a pitcher at my back end of the top 10, and went with Struck first because I think he's got a higher ceiling than Kirk and he's performing well at a higher level. 10. Justin Bour - I'm still very ... curious ... as to how "real" things are, but there's no statistical anomaly, the swing looks good from what I've heard (in regards to plane and approach). I look at the system as a top 2, with 3-7 pretty interchangeable. If Vitters show positive offensive consistency, I'd slide him up a fair amount, but I'm happy with slotting him 8th for now. A lot of people could fit into the 9/10 spots.

Cubs - The system of overachieving/surprising older corner talent. Just realized Bryan LaHair was near the top of PCL offensive numbers, to go along with Ridling/Flaherty/Spencer at AA, Bour at A+, and Greg Rohan at Low A. The one thing I'd love to see is that AAA rotation revamped, but there really aren't that many options. Boy, it's an ugly group there.

as a side note, i believe beeler is only peaking in the mid- 90's, whereas Hatley is in the mid-90's more consistently. Of course, when Hatley was being stretched out, he was only in the low-mid 90's range as well.

hatley has been known to pump it in the mid-90's since he came back. sounds like he still has his plus slider, so he may very well become the guy a lot of people comp'd him to back pre-surgery, a michael wuertz-ish type pen arm.

craig, I think pushing Bour up isn't only to help us get a better grasp of what his ability is, but also for the organization to get a clearer picture. I don't know what's best for his development, but assuming he keeps his torrid pace up for another month or so, it's reasonable to suggest that he needs to be challenged a bit more (I do think another two weeks or so in A+ isn't the worst idea, just to see if he can keep this pace and deal with pitchers game plans changing). The main thing is, does his HR power hold (as prior to this season, he was sort of viewed as a big, really big, Mark Grace-ish type of first baseman, in terms of a solid approach and more gap power than HR power), as for the most part, his gap ability and his approach should be fine. The jump to facing AA pitchers would be a good challenge for him, as he's simply destroying FSL pitching. Heck, I keep talking about his bad April, but he still had a .800+ OPS in April, IIRC. AzPhil did note that they worked with Bour on a power swing in the winter. Problem right now is that it's hard to justify pushing any of the corner options in Tennessee aside. Now, Bour's ridiculous performance could force his way up anyways, but since he's limited to first, I think at least one guy, if not two, need to go up so that guys can get enough AB's at AA. Personally, I'd shift Matt Spencer and Ryan Flaherty up, and have LeMahieu dabble a lot more at 3rd in AA (with Marquez Smith in AAA, he'd have to split time there as well, so letting him get that work in AA isn't a bad idea).

Not exactly a good start for Kirk, but it isn't that bad. 6 ip, 7 h (1 solo HR), 1 bb, 3 R (1 unearned), 6 K's. 5/7 GO/FO. Started the 7th and Gonzalez le the inherited runner score.

Carpenter's a mess. Not much else that can be said. I hope Matt Spencer gets a look in Iowa. There's not much else for him to prove in the Southern League.

Cam sort of makes me think of Rich Hill - if Cam ever gets decent control, he could be something intriguing, something more than an end of the rotation/pen arm type lefty. Granted, this is against Low A kids, so there is that secondary issue to factor in as well, but there's been a lot of positives to his start ... and then there's the walks.

barring any MiLB box score changes, it looks like a solid start for Nick Struck.

I think the system right now compares alright to the perception of our system after the Garza trade. While there have been some disappointments, there have been some improvements to balance things out.

oy, never understand why MiLB can make such gigantic mistakes in their boxscores. That said, still a solid start for him. Really wouldn't mind seeing Harman get bumped up if he is still strong in a week or two. I'd rather see him get a rotation shot, but if they are keeping him in the pen, might as well challenge him.

I really liked Graham Hicks a fair amount and thought he was the key to the deal, but I'll be curious to find out if he's added any more velo. There was some thought he would a few years back, but I don't think he ever did while in the Nats org. Still young enough that it could happen.

I got it 2nd hand. Wasn't based off AzPhil's report from last year, but I need to be clear that I got it 2nd hand. And it was off one game. I've been trying to find out if he's been able to keep up that velo, but haven't heard since.

sorry, for some reason i've grown accustomed to think of mahtook as a corner of prospect. I'm not really a believer that he'll stick in CF, despite some of the glowing reports out there. I think he's a notch below Brett Jackson defensively, and I already think that, regardless of other players development, that Jackson will eventually shift to a corner role, but it's more a matter of when. Mahtook does have the power to fill a corner role, IMO.

I've got a tough time seeing the Cubs fork over the necessary money for Starling. Just hard to see, IMO. If there is a "reach" pick, I half wonder if Mahtook could be the reach pick guy. On talent, not deserving to go at 9 ... but it really wouldn't surprise me if that was the pick, due to the relationships, filling a positional void, and so forth. I don't really see a pick that I dislike that badly, similar to how I didn't want guys like AJ Pollock, Alex Wimmers, and to a lesser degree, Kolbrin Vitek over the last few years. Of course, if there's a deep sleeper of a pick, then that blows the equation wide open.

just making it up off the top of my head right now, but ... who else is out there? Hard to really bump up a Liria/Austin Reed right now. I sort of noted earlier that I would ponder Beeler in the top 10. I'm not a guy that ranks pen arms high, but I could see some folks putting Kurcz, Dolis, Carpenter in there. Carpenter's control is really troubling me, though. Furthermore, I'm not sure Alberto Cabrera would be that much worse, if at all, than those three as pen arms, but he's far off my radar for a top 10 list right now. Also not sure Frank Batista is that far behind those pen arms as well.

toonster, assuming their production doesn't take a dramatic turn for the worse, where would you place Justin Bour and Micah Gibbs? If Bour maintains his ridiculous pace, which would likely lead to a AA bump somehow, and performs well, then sure, I could perhaps squeeze him into the back of a top 10, otherwise I'd guess 11-20, and my hunch is more back end of the top 20. As for Gibbs, I think I'd plop him in the 20's. Again, I'm just making this up in my head right now. Haven't really sat down and pondered it that long.

I'd probably squeeze Ha in my top 5, but while I know the scouting reports on his swing and approach are fine, I'm still wary of that low walk rate. Much as I wasn't high on Whitenack entering the year, he's got a legit power sinker now, and this isn't exactly Justin Berg and his lack of secondary offerings. He's had enough starts in AA that I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, and I think the gap between his floor and Ha's is wider than the gap between Ha's ceiling and Whitenack's ceiling (I think, if he maintains his velo all year, his ceiling is that of a potential number 3, borderline 2, depending on how he polishes up his secondary pitches.) All that said, I think there's a top 2, and then a group bunched together ... Let's see, trying to sort out a top 10 on the fly, I'd go something like 1. Brett Jackson - Was he as good as his start to the year? Nah. That said, he's still a very solid all-around OF prospect, and I still sort of think Jackson's ceiling is a bit underrated. I'd go something like high end 4-star or a B+ for him. A bit bothered by the splits, but SSS. 2. Trey McNutt - Has all the makings of a solid starting pitching prospect, but I wonder if his ceiling was a bit overhyped last year. That said, gotta see him work a bit more into games to get a better gauge. I'd go something like middle of the pack 4-star or a low end B+. Then I'd bunch these guys close 3. Robert Whitenack - If he tightens up his secondary offerings, to go with the newfound velo, he could make that another jump. I'd go 3-star, B. 4. DJ LeMahieu - He's done what he's needed to do (add power), while walking a bit more. Still think he could handle 2nd decently enough, particularly in his youth. I'd go 3-star, B. 5. Jae-Hoon Ha - Waiting to see how he responds to AA pitching. I agree, on talent, he might deserve to be higher. I'd go 3 star, B. After that, it's a bit messy. A first run through would be 6. Matt Szczur - Nod to the speculated ceiling and acknowledging his solid start to year. Borderline 3-star, B/B- for me. 7. Hayden Simpson - Willing to give him a mulligan on the year, but that places huge emphasis on his 2012. I'd go 2 star, B-. 8. Austin Kirk - I don't know ... seems a bit high for a guy who's ceiling might be more of a 3/4 type lefty starter, but he's been dang good, is young and ... is performing well. I'd go C+. 9. Josh Vitters - Sort of sneaking him in on ceiling. Some positive signs, but not enough. Hanging around more due to lack of upside in system. If nice, I'd go C+ due to upside. 10. Ben Wells - Sort of sneaking him in on ceiling, but could go a ton of ways. - Flaherty's struggles after his hot start ruled him out for me for now, although I feel more comfortable with the idea that Flaherty might be a possible solid corner OF option, rather than a utility guy. - Jay Jackson hasn't done enough for me to buy that he's anything more than a pen arm, and I don't rate pen arms high. Carpenter's control is so troubling that I don't know what to think right now. - Golden hasn't done enough to get him back in a top 10 for now for me. - The collapse of the lefties - Raley and Antigua really drop. - I really pondered Struck in the top 10 ... thought long about Kurcz and Dolis as well.

oh, i've never been a huge fan of Robinson Lopez. thought he was somewhat overrated when we got him (although to land him in a Lee deal was still solid). All that said, I'm sort of taking this year with a grain of salt. Looks like the Cubs are trying to polish him up a tiny bit, akin to their work with Archer.

craig - i half wonder if i'd slot beeler in my top 10. Been pondering midseason rankings/state of the farm due to the draft coming up, but i'm not one to start a thread. I know BJax, McNutt, Whitenack are definitely in the top 5. Probably LeMahieu. After that, I'm a bit up in the air on the rest.

Carrillo's more a system arm that they shuffle around now to wherever there is a need. It wouldn't surprise me if he has a shot at AAA, but it also wouldn't surprise me if he was sent down to Daytona if someone gets called up.

I can't think of the last guy who has maintained such a gigantic surge in power from one year to the next. I'm sure there might be someone, but he's doubled his IsoP from last year, which is pretty insane. That said, he's also cut down his K's significantly. I'm just not sure what to think about Bour. These are some fairly remarkable numbers he's posting, made all the more significant by a week or two of struggles early in the year. Problem for him is that it's hard to see how he fits into AA this year, barring a Rebel collapse. With Rebel, Josh Vitters, and Matt Spencer all in AA and all likely to get semi-regular time at 1st (along with Flaherty), it's hard to see how Justin can fit in. That said, if he continues hitting this well, I guess he'll find a way (and I still think Matt Spencer should get a look in AAA at midseason).

I really want to love this move, and maybe he's more Castro than Vitters, but I can't help but be a tad wary of it right now. Just seems ... rushed. I fully admit I was off about Ha's talent level (thought he was a bit closer to Guyer last year, in terms of talent, but he's handling CF fairly well and his bat has much more potential), but I'm just wary. Considering how great Bour and Ridling have been this year, I'm intrigued with Cuneo, who I liked a bit better out of college than Bour (marginally).

Jokisch has a very good secondary pitch. Off the top, I think it's a changeup and not the breaking ball. Add in solid control, and those types of college arms can do well in Low A ball. Not saying I'm not impressed with his efforts so far, but I feel like his best case is more Chris Rusin-ish, and he doesn't have Rusin's control. I still wonder if Hayden wouldn't be better off taking some time to build up his body and then giving Peoria a go, say, after the draft. Intriguing to see Marwin Gonzalez in CF (and leading off). Cubs have given him enough chances to get it going, so it's not like I have high expectations, but he's always been in the back of my mind in regards to wondering what might happen if a toolsy guy like him puts it together enough. Same goes for Nelson Perez. Gut says it's more of a hot start than anything for Nelson, but who knows. Tools are definitely there. I do wonder if it might be somewhat sink or swim for him, considering the age. I mean, I doubt the Cubs would cut him this year if he struggles, but if he ends the year in A+, I do wonder if he might get pushed aside by others.

Still a bit disappointed that Harman is solely in the pen, but he's gotten off to a superb start. Granted, considering his polish, somewhat expected, but still nice to see. Bryce Shafer's been effective, but I don't recall anything exemplary on his stuff. Of course, with pen arms, small sample sizes. Much as I liked Alberto Cabrera last year, his struggles aren't that surprising, and I wonder if he should be moved to the pen sooner than later, where he might move faster. Of course, after moving Dolis, there isn't exactly anyone forcing Cabrera off a rotation spot right now. Rhoderick is sure powering along in AA. Good to see Marquez Smith getting untracked a bit offensively. They did dabble him a bit at 2nd (was it last week?), so he must be in much better shape than last year. I never really bought into the talk that some people had about Gaub as a possible late inning arm (he'd have to really tighten up the control), but he is a good looking LOOGY type arm. Carpenter's been awful this year out of the pen. The control has simply collapsed. I'd be curious to find out his ratio 4 seamers this year compared to the ratio of 4-seamers when he was a starter, though.