toonsterwu

What? Really? I know you are high on Wood, or I assume you were the one, but really? A positive case of Wood is ... Maholm. Jay Jackson has average stuff. Chris Rusin, if he goes down, is a softer-tossing version of Wood. Alberto Cabrera, a guy I'm higher on than most, should be in the pen. Who else? Nick Struck, another guy I'm higher on than most, is a ... righty version of Travis Wood basically, an end of the rotation arm with a mid-rotation ceiling. Who else? Dallas Beeler, another guy I really like, would be fortunate if he turned into a Volstad type starter. Maybe he can be a bit better, but Volstad would be a good outcome for Beeler in terms of the expectations game. McNutt has ceiling, but has to get consistent mechanics, and well, overall consistency. Are you really going to argue that any six you pick from AAA Iowa is going to have more days in the rotation where they would be better than the 6 on the major league squad against major league hitters?

Really? I could be wrong, but I think KyleJRM was the one that was really heads over heels for Travis Wood. I remember having some discussions with someone here about Wood, and I think it was Kyle. Could be wrong, though. There's really only one young-ish guy with upside, and that's Samardzija, and he's in his prime years (27). Garza is dead smack at the start of his prime years, and Volstad is close enough to it, but again, much as I like him, more of a 3/4 that could pass as a 2/3 depending on the situation, IMO. It's still odd to marvel at how cheap solid and young it is. Because it isn't that young. And most of the cheapness is very short-term. yeah, my point exactly. and ... the upside isn't all that great with any of the semi-youngish guys.

Was having a quick discussion with AzPhil on Francescon. I thought PJ's changeup was solid to flashes plus, but AzPhil makes it sound like a legitimate plus pitch. The exchange: http://www.thecubreporter.com/2012/03/19/lahair-ball-day-fitch-park#new

Really? I could be wrong, but I think KyleJRM was the one that was really heads over heels for Travis Wood. I remember having some discussions with someone here about Wood, and I think it was Kyle. Could be wrong, though. There's really only one young-ish guy with upside, and that's Samardzija, and he's in his prime years (27). Garza is dead smack at the start of his prime years, and Volstad is close enough to it, but again, much as I like him, more of a 3/4 that could pass as a 2/3 depending on the situation, IMO.

I really don't see Volstad as having 2 potential. He's never even cracked 7 K/9. A groundballing innings eater 3? Maybe. But to be a 2 requires occasional dominance. He's always been seen as having good enough stuff to get more K's, though. Much as I like Volstad and prefer him to get the rotation nod over Wood (both guys are fairly close in talent level, Volstad probably with a tick higher ceiling, but he's simply doing better right now, and when the talent is close, that should get the edge out of spring), it should be noted that it was always HOPED that his stuff would be good enough to get more K's. For several years in the minors, the hope was that his fastball would add velocity to it as he physically matured. It never really did. He added the slider a couple years back because the curve-ball never got sharp enough or consistent enough (and same went for the change-up - both were solid but never really plus offerings that would rack up the K's). I think the hope for more K's now lies with perhaps an improved slider, as IIRC, he only added it 2-3 years ago. Realistically, I think Volstad is more of a 3-4 innings-eating starter who, if he has a great year, a little luck, and isn't on a strong rotation, could be a passable 2nd starter. Say, Chien-Ming Wang's best years with the Yankees. He's a bigger, slightly better version of Randy Wells, with more potential.

As a side note, the near lock comment came from Paul Sullivan's twitter feed. If that's the case, it's awfully hard for me to imagine Volstad not making it, based off the strong spring he's had so far. Granted, Wells has been good as well, so it's a tough call, but Volstad would seem to carry high importance than Wells, which should garner him the nod. I do wonder if any team would come calling about Wells. Doubt it, because there's simply too many spare parts that could be shopped (pitching wise) that it's hard to see us getting enough value for Wells to justify a move now.

I have my doubts that Acosta is the guy AzPhil was referring to. It sounds like Acosta didn't get in until around the 15th/16th, and AzPhil's comments came on the 11th or 12th off the top. Also, AzPhil has Acosta listed as an IF for now.

Seems as good a place as any ... asked AzPhil some questions, on the hitters side, this stood out - There's a tiny part of me that's disappointed that he looks like a solid bet to move off short (I mean ... at his age, looking like Junior Lake at 21 ... there's a snarky comment somewhere that I'll avoid). That said, adding another power talent to the organization is a plus, giving us a lot more pieces to hope on in developing our own stars internally.

While it's not impossible, I'm still going to be mildly surprised if Travis Wood is sent to the pen instead of the minors if he fails to make a rotation spot. It would seem to behoove them to not waste both of their "extra" starters in the pen, and instead, keep one stretched out in the minors, to go with Jay Jackson, Chris Rusin, etceteras. There's still Maine and Trever Miller in camp, along with Russell, enough options to not move Wood into the pen off the bat, IMO. I also wondered, based on his comments about Mateo's slider as a true out pitch or something like that, if Mateo might sneak in there.

Concepcion to Daytona seems to be the big pitching update from the latest AzPhil roster update, although off the top, looks like Charles Thomas was shifted to Peoria and that's one that intrigues me a tiny bit.

Well, new update from AzPhil on the rosters was certainly fascinating (comparing 3/12 and 3/16 updates by AzPhil). The most intriguing thing was having Baez/Vogelbach/Candelario/Shoulders/Lockhart at Peoria, along with Jeffrey Baez and Carlos Penalver in Boise/Mesa. I'm mildly curious at the movement of guys like Soto/Soccorro/Zapenas as it relates to how that impacts more critical prospects in the pipeline (since all three were moved down). As for Szczur, I'll be curious if he gets shifted down again. My guess would be yes, with Brett Jackson's impending move to Iowa likely kicking Jae-Hoon Ha down a notch, but it's possible they don't view Ha that highly in CF.

Like others, I agree on 2014. I don't know if anyone can give a specific answer to this, but in general, I think the Cubs legitimate championship window probably starts in 2014. The chances are high that if we aren't awfully close to the race this year (and the chances are slim that will happen), that they will sell some more veteran pieces. Assuming all goes well (and that's a big assumption), we should have some key pieces in place, and I'd expect them to make some purchases next off-season. That said, to expect everything to gel in 2013 is unrealistic (this doesn't mean we can't win a NL Central crown), so I tend to think the start of the window, the start of our championship aspiration window, probably starts in 2014, so that's the year that I'd put as the one to watch in regards to the Cubs winning the NL Central.

If he's having a great season, let's say a 3ish ERA, solid WHIP, solid K/9 rate, probably best case for him.....I'd still think we'd have to pay quite a bit of his contract, in order to get something solid for him. He won't net draft picks for his next team and he's pretty old as well. If there's not much else available, I could see him bringing in a borderline top 10 guy from an average system, along with a pair of top 30 types with upside. Maybe something like a Rhee, Ha, and Beeler from our system. That'd be an awful nice return, but I have my doubts that you could get two solid pitching prospects in the upper levels for him (assuming Rhee/Beeler pitch well in AA). I tend to think a positive scenario would be one upper level 2nd/3rd tier prospect that's close to ready and two lower level "lottery ticket" guys, or maybe 3 low level guys, with one having a high ceiling, maybe a notch above the DeRosa deal. But it's hard to speak in specifics this early, and you also never know what type of pressure a team may feel at the deadline.

I'll take a stab at Clevenger - He's got more options left. If they don't feel Castillo is completely ready, or if they feel he'd benefit form more regular time, this might be the smart move to make. But could see it go either way. Also provides a bench lefty. DeWitt/Baker - I think both are locked in. DeWitt gets the nod at the start for his lefty bat. It's clear that he's rebounded enough and has impressed Sveum. That leaves 2 spots. I really don't care who gets it, but I imagine it's going to be Reed Johnson (backup CF as well) and Joe Mather (for his versatility). Sappelt and Cardenas probably haven't done enough to force their way onto the roster, and Campana doesn't offer much off the bench other than pinch running and some cult status. I actually didn't anticipate Cardenas starting in the bigs, and I didn't really think Campana should either. I thoguht Sappelt would have a chance, but Mather's had a nice spring and I think that may break in his favor for the final spot.

My hunch is that it's Garza/Dempster/Volstad/Samardzija/Maholm, with Wood in AAA and Wells in the pen. Now is not the right time to trade Dempster. Around mid-season, perhaps. We'd get better value then. And yes, I do think a decent run from Dempster could net us decent value. Capable starting pitching is always desired at the trade deadline. Yes, there's a risk that Father Time catches up even more with Dempster, but I think it's a risk worth taking when his trade value right now is probably quite minimal, since most teams have their rotations filled (unless an injury occurs).

Ah, I completely forgot about Lake being up in major league camp right now. Still think someone like Samson or Soto may be pushed down to slot as another shortstop option in AA.

I'm not that surprised on ... well ... of all them, other than for one factor - that's a lot of corner guys that need PT. I wonder if this suggests that Marco Hernandez and Gioskar Amaya are impressing so far, or have a higher chance of starting at full season than many expected. I wonder because a) Soccorro and Zapenas are viewed more as organizational guys, and they are the other middle infielders in Peoria (I'm assuming Xavier Batista hasn't found some fountain of agility and started playing middle infield ... ) b) The potential downward pressure is ... Arismendy Alcantara? Wes Darvill? Dustin Harrington? Pierre LePage? (I'm assuming Torreyes is locked into a spot in Daytona). Hard for me to see one of those guys displacing Hernande or Amaya if either shows enough in spring. I'm excited. I know I was far higher on Marco Hernandez than ... well ... anyone. As a side note, who the heck is the shortstop at Tennessee? Valdes? Watkins? Ouch.

Always fascinating to read where some guys are starting off at. Granted, this is pre-cuts, so guys will obviously get pushed down. But pitching wise, to see Batista in AAA now is mildly surprising. I thought it would be roughly 50/50 his chances to start at Tennessee instead of Daytona, but this seems to put his chances slightly higher than that. Fascinating to see Spencer start in Tennessee, and Burke in Daytona. I half wonder if this is a make or break scenario for Spencer, though, due to his age. Nothing too shocking, I guess. A long way to go, though.

The durability questions were largely before last year and had less to do with TJ and more to do with his frame. That said, for the most part, he should've put some of those concerns to rest a bit for now, since he was working deeper into games last year and carrying the stuff.

This is exactly why I have a hard time seeing this team be anything more than a .500 club (a potential youth movement in the 2nd half of the season). Even if we overachieve, If they are too far away come trading deadline (and that could mean simply too many teams above them in the chase), I tend to think that the FO will likely spin some assets off for more long term pieces, if possible (maybe Garza, Dempster, Byrd, perhaps Soto, perhaps DeJesus, perhaps Marmol, maybe another starting pitcher if one is performing well, maybe LaHair if he's hitting well). I think they would need to be smack dab in the playoff chase, say within a few games and not many teams ahead of them, for the FO to consider buying, and well, for us to be in that position would probably require a lot, a lot of luck.

Cabrera could always light up the radar gun in short spurts, hence why I'm still quite intrigued with him as a pen candidate (he still rips off a nasty slider, albeit, he is a bit inconsistent at times with it). He's just not consistent enough, and the change-up isn't good enough, as a starter yet. Now, if Cabrera is hitting 97 as a starter ... that'd be new. But I somewhat think Cabrera is being over-looked a bit as a pen candidate. Still think he has some late inning potential if switched full-time to the pen, where he can pump up the velocity and focus on his slider. Now, if he's sent to the minors, I'd still prefer him in the rotation, if only to get him more work and appearances. Edit: Listened the interview. Interesting stuff on video work. The Cabrera stuff was interesting. If they fix his 2-seamer, could give him a better chance to be a starter.

This isn't really a call your shot thing, but random thought of the moment on a hitter is that I wonder I either think Greg Rohan will be cut relatively early (perhaps even before the season, to give higher ceiling guys opportunities) or that he will rake enough in A+/AA to make us wonder if he's a late bloomer. Hard for me to see something in b/w.

*shoots self in face* Which part are you shooting yourself over? Hard to see letting LaHair/Ridling man 1st/LF in a rebuilding year as a shoots self in face thing. Eating Soriano's money? Perhaps. Admittedly, I was just throwing Ridling out there for the sake of throwing something, but I'll give a mild defense/comment on Ridling. He's gone from an interesting minor league name (and someone I wondered if the AA jump would eat him up enough to force him to repeat the level) to at least Jason Dubois-ish for me (just picking a recent corner guy that was a AAA masher) where I wonder if he can fill some sort of role in the bigs. He's athletic enough, with a solid arm, for me to think that he could probably be average, or a tiny tick below, in LF (he's fine defensively at first). Offensively, he had an interesting 2011, book-ended by two red-hot months, with 3 very mediocre months in between. He's clearly not that good to think that his April/August is representative of his ceiling, and statistically, there's enough to question whether or not his May-June is more indicative of his true abilities. I tend to think he's probably a tick better than his May-June. He's got a solid approach, and has more power ability than another big corner guy I liked once in Kyle Blanks. The swing doesn't look too long or awkward to my naked eye to think that he'll have a sudden major jump in his K rate (over a long enough sample size). He might not be anymore than a Jason Dubois-level, but besides a cool name, I think he'll be fairly intriguing to keep an eye on in our rebuilding year, as I think he could mash a ton in Iowa, and I think there's enough there to wonder if he could perhaps be a good big bat off the bench, corner defensive replacement guy. He gets sort of lost amidst LaHair (and I believe that LaHair is improved and will be decent at first), the new guys (Rizzo, Candelario, Vogelbach, Shoulders). Heck, he sort of got lost last year behind Justin Bour (early because Bour's start was that good, late because Bour's struggle was that bad).

Soto has a strong season and is dealt at midseason. Rebel Ridling rakes in AAA and gets a call-up/add onto 40 when Soriano gets hurt. He forces the Cubs to keep him in the bigs, and steadily earns playing time over the 2nd half of the year. Eventually, the Cubs decide to just eat the Soriano money, letting LaHair/Ridling man 1st/LF. As a result, Rizzo ends up not coming up until September. Brett Jackson wins ROY with a superb 2nd half. Starlin Castro's ISOP inches forward, near the .135 mark, and he gets MVP consideration despite being on a losing team. I really should have something negative to balance things out ... but I guess my expectations on the other guys aren't enough for me to think of something as hugely negative. I mean, I don't see Soriano doing all that well (though he probably still hits 10-15 HR's before my hypothetical waiver), and I think Barney won't do much offensively.

Chris Volstad will have a strong season, maintaining the strong control last year while getting the HR rate down. By mid-season, he'll be a clear number 3 in the rotation, and perhaps forced into the 2 spot when a trade gets made.