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Good - I'll start off with a personal favorite - Ben Wells rolls through Peoria, showing a better breaking ball than anyone anticipated. He gets pushed to Daytona late in the year and is on the back end of top 100 lists for 2013. - Beeler's fastball picks up a notch (hey, I can dream right ...) and has a strong season with his 3 pitch arsenal. He gets called up to the bigs for a cup of tea late in the year. - Alberto Cabrera is moved to the pen in Iowa ... and dominates. - Luis Liria takes a step forward, showing significantly improved command to go with a much sharper change. Bad - Maples struggles with his mechanics, gets hurt at some point, and is eventually shut down until the fall. - Cates struggles mightily, and is shifted to the pen in the hopes that he can just throw the ball in the mid-90's and get it by folks. In that Gray Area - McNutt gets off to a hot start, gets bumped to Iowa in the early summer. He makes some top 50 lists, but then he starts to struggle a bit in the PCL and against more veteran hitters, guys who take advantage of his inconsistent change-up.

Good - Marco Hernandez ends the year at Daytona, and has an ISOP around .120 while making good contact. - Gioskar Amaya forces his way into a full-season league and rakes. Bad - Torreyes is fine in A+, but then starts to struggle against AA pitchers. - Ha's his usual, streaky offensive self, but defensively, he just can't hack it in CF.

If Baez comes through with a really strong performance, I think he'll be easy top 50 next year. The easiest guy to compare him to is Xander Boegaerts, a very similar player who was top 50 in most lists. A long way to go until then, though, but those two have a ton of similarities.

Didn't know where to put this, as it doesn't really belong in the Cubs or BA thread. Guess I could've thrown it into others. http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/2/24/2821479/minor-league-ball-baseball-top-120-prospects-for-2012#storyjump Anyhow, it's the first time that he's done a combined list, and at first glance, I like it enough. Anyone can always find complaints about any list, but if you view it in tiers and judge it as a comparison amongst tiers, it looks alright. Cubs came in at 27 (Brett Jackson), 37 (Anthony Rizzo), and 109 (Javier Baez), with Sickels noting that Szczur would be in the 120-130 range. Baez seems a bit low (he's awfully similar to Boegaerts, so it wouldn't surprise me if Baez is a top 50 next year), but I'd never really fault anyone for ranking a youngster like that low to start off with. Some random comments: Rankings of Red Sox and Padres system seem ... appropriate. I think Boegaerts is a bit high at 30, and I think Gyorko/Liriano in the 50's seem high, but I felt like both systems, and some players, were over-hyped this winter. I hate the ranking of Addison Reed, though. Not that I don't think Addison Reed won't be a good late inning arm, just ranking a pen arm in the top 50? I like the placement of Lee and Lindor a bit better in this list than in some others. Felt like both were pumped up a bit too high elsewhere, at least, for my tastes. Still not a big fan of Deck McGuire as a top 100 prospect. Kolten Wong at 56? Matt Adams in a top 120? On the latter, he's got a couple years on Rebel, but just not all that sold that Matt Adams is significantly better than Rebel (and I wouldn't think of Rebel Ridling as a top 200 prospect in baseball). Anyhow, can't think of any other major lists hanging out there. Camps are about to start, so we should be onto more meaningful news sooner than later.

Speaking of Cano comps, I've always felt that Castro was a good comp for him, at a same stage, and relative to long term expectations. My "ideal" 2nd-3rd infield situation, say, 4 years down the road, would be Castro at 2nd, Marco Hernandez at short, and Baez at 3rd. Ideally, that would be 3 guys fitting in the 1-5 spots of a lineup.

Baez is viewed as having an elite offensive ceiling, with power and average. It certainly speaks to Soler's offensive ceiling that the thought is that his ceiling is as high, if not higher than Baez's, but Manuel's point was that if the ceilings are close, you take the infielder, and I agree with that.

Hey, what was BA's original system rank for us again? 14?

At this point, they should hurry up and get it over with. Pitcher off the 40 man doesn't sound that bad. It makes sense - allowing the Red Sox to say they get a key guy, a guy who is ready (and possibly ready to replace Bard in the pen), and for us, it's a piece that we can give up.

Never liked him as much as others did, but a bit surprised that this happened. There was a moment last year, don't recall when, but he had a decent 2 games as a starter. That said, he was just a fastball guy, and an average fastball at that, albeit one with decent velo. The curveball was never there consistently. It's possible that it was an injury that hampered his velo from some of those SAL reports, but it wouldn't surprise me if their work to try and iron out his mechanics impacted his stuff as well. Somewhat of a shame that he's gone, as I had hoped that he could perhaps turn the corner with another year at Peoria, but there's a lot of raw armed fastball guys coming up behind him, so eh, not that big of a loss. I mean, the organization doesn't typically keep around fastball-only guys for that long, and his breaking ball was simply eh last year. His past pedigree will probably get him another look from a team.

I don't understand Jackson being so far ahead of Rizzo at all. @Kevin_Goldstein 1B prospect rule; not a Szczur fan. RT @SteveJB54: @Kevin_Goldstein Why so low on Rizzo? How far off the list would Szczur be? Also: @Kevin_Goldstein Again, not at all. RT @NickKappel: @Kevin_Goldstein Was Matt Szczur close to making top 101? @Kevin_Goldstein Not ready yet. RT @keithsmw: @Kevin_Goldstein If you're the Cubs do you let Jackson spend a full season in Iowa or bring him up now? @Kevin_Goldstein Baez not a SS in majors. RT @cubsncards: @Kevin_Goldstein If Baez starts at SS for the Cubs does that put Starlin at 2b or on another team? The scouts seem really down on Baez's ability to handle short. What's the 1B prospect rule? Just that he doesn't value 1B prospects as much as other position prospects because there are usually an abundance of them available on the FA market that can be slightly above replacement level? And I agree on the Baez at SS thing. I haven't seen anyone, anywhere, even say that he might stay there it's always he's def moving off that position. I know his bat will be a factor in determining where he moves to, but out of 2B, 3B, LF/RF what is the most likely position he gets tried out at first when he moves off of SS? I also think it's worth noting he has Rizzo as his #2 rated 1B, only 2 spots behind Singleton of the Astros and Baez is only rated one spot behind HJ Lee. Pretty much. I think the "1st base prospect rule" is that, for some, prospects at first base simply have to mash at a significantly higher rate than players at other positions to justify high rankings for them. This isn't the case with everyone, but basically it speaks to the value of the player. Rizzo this low does mildly surprise me, but looking at his list, I don't have a huge problem with it.

Probably third, which is reflective as much on him as it is reflective upon the organization's potential need there. An interesting case to see what the organization does may be to see what the Red Sox do with Xander Boegaerts, a fairly similar player.

Tough for me to rank him 1 ... but yeah, barring some scouting reports that suggest otherwise, I'd have a tough time ranking him outside of the top 5.

Going to be curious what they do with Liria. I tend to agree with Raisin on the A+ guess - people down in Peoria were real high on him. That said, he's got to show better command in spring to get them to make that move. I do think Loosen is a lock for A+'s rotation, though. I'd be rather surprised if he isn't in a rotation. He really doesn't have a pen arsenal that would make that move intriguing/warranted/worthwhile at this stage.

Was a big signing (700 K off the top? It's in the international sticky thread), but never did much until last year. Showed decent power stuff out of the pen. My guess is that Kurcz will close in AA, but I could see Suarez, who I think starts in AA, get some chances to close.

C - For Iowa, guessing Clevenger loses and is there with Jaramillo, with Blake Lalli in his usual occasional C/1st/DH role if he is around. At Tennessee, I'm thinking if Flores is around, it's probably a safe bet for Flores/Brenly. I'll guess Gibbs/Noble in Daytona, and Cabezas/Lopez/Burruel in Peoria if all three are around. I guess I could see Lopez pushed to Daytona. I could see Burruel/Noble/Flores/Lalli possibly get cut (not all obviously) 1st - Rizzo, with Ridling in LF in AAA and Bour in AA are the easy ones. A bit tougher after that. For now, I'll Richard Jones, with a chance of Rohan in A+, with Hoilman. possibly Geiger, and say, Cuneo in A. I think Vogelbach and Shoulders will have to force their way in. I can see Jones/Cuneo possibly being cut. 2nd - Cardenas/Camp/Mota/Samson/Scales/Gonzalez ... whoever's around will probably get the nod at 2nd. My guess is Cardenas gets the bulk of the time to start. Watkins/Cerda/Soto will likely get time at 2nd in AA. Torreyes at A+ seems like a lock, with perhaps LePage/Silva or even Soccorro/Zapenas in the mix. Darvill/DeVoss/Soccorro/Zapenas could be in the mix in A. One thing to keep in mind is that I could see them start Baez/Hernandez at the same level, with Hernandez handling 2nd/SS and Baez handling SS/3rd, along with some utility options. SS - This one's mildly intriguing. Junk at AAA. With Soto getting a clear call to AA, I imagine we might see Lake get tried at other positions. I think Lake will still get time at short, though. I do not see Hernandez getting a bump to A+, but then again, we didn't expect Castro to. But as bullish as I am on Hernandez, almost everyone out there believes he needs more time/patience than Castro and I'm not sold they push him that fast. Baez, maybe Hernandez in Peoria. 3rd - Vitters in AAA with Marquez Smith makes sense. I think Lake could get time in AA, but if a mild surprise happened, I could see Rohan (who age wise, needs to move fast) get time at 3rd with Cerda. That said, I tend to think Rohan starts in A+, perhaps as the main third baseman there. Geiger might be in make or break time, but I'd pencil him in for Peoria as of now, but it's a tough guess. Bleh, that was totally useless.

I'm really not sure I see Raley as a lock for AAA's rotation. Wouldn't surprise me if Rhoderick is closing there.

Really? That's convenient. Sure, I'll stand by that. Now, admittedly, I've seen more reports for football than I have baseball, but you'd be surprised how accurate some reports are. Of course they are wrong a fair amount as well, but you'd be surprised how some reports are. The thing is, frame analysis is still as much guesswork as anything, even for the NFL. They get it right more often than not, but I can think of examples where guys bodies suggested potential for some level of development that never came about (in fact, can think of one NFL tackle off the top). I tossed in the "change in something" part because there was a minor leaguer several years back, not in the Cubs, who looked really dang good, for lack of a better term. A lot of glossy reports on him, but due to coaching, he was advised to make some changes to his stance. It simply wasn't advisable, and everything blew up. Saw the old reports for the guy and talked to some folks that pointed out the change in his stance and why that changed things. Doesn't mean the folks that scouted him were wrong before about his potential/ability, but it was an unexpected change that they didn't forecast because it wasn't thought of as a concern by some).

No. Heck, I've said I wouldn't be surprised if some guys in my current 50-70 range end up better than some guys in our top 10. It's that ... type of a system.

That report is basically what Pedroia became, though. A guy who has good gap power, will hit some out, but won't be a consistently solid 20+ HR guy (at least up to this point in his career). Don't get me wrong, I am often wary of ANY scouting report, particularly as it relates to young guys (and specifically, draft picks ... still think Lindor is getting WAY over-hyped, not saying he's not good, but I see some folks putting him top 30 or so, and I think that's way high). That said, in scouts defense, they are right more often than they are wrong, and when they are wrong, it's often because of physical development or a change in something (swing plane, approach, etcetras ... for example, no one is critiquing LaHair's old reports coming up the Mariners system, because they were right for the time, but he's made substantial changes in our system to add power).

What is a take the top off guy? Or do I not want to know? Sorry, should've just said a deep threat. I don't know why I said take the top off, just some language that I picked up talking to football folks.

probably not 2nd, although you never know, but there was talk that Szczur was a safe bet to go in the 3rd/4th. This of course, assumed that he timed well enough (he was never considered to have elite speed in football, so I never really knew why people thought he had elite speed in baseball at first), say, in the 4.4 range, and had good agility drills, amongst other things. But he would've been a safe slot receiver, on paper, in the modern NFL, a very useful weapon, particularly if you have a seam TE or a take the top off guy.

Wait, where'd you get that number? He only had 17 XBH's in 278 AB's (306 PA's) last year, with an ISO of .101. I haven't heard any scouting reports that suggest that, with the way he swings, that he should develop quite a bit more pop than that. Edit: Oh, I'm guessing you included his rookie league numbers. When the power numbers take such a big drop from rookie to A, I tend to think that I should take the high number with a grain of salt, particularly if the scouting reports suggest that the lower number fits in line with his swing and approach. I expect he might do better as he matures at the plate, but I doubt he'll be anywhere near those rookie level numbers to justify, as of now, using a combination of the two to suggest that he has power, but that's me. Edit number 2: In his defense, though, DeShields often asked him to focus on putting the ball in play, and I know there are some that felt that he could've hit for more power, but because he was hitting 2nd behind Hamilton, he was asked to fill a role.

I actually think he's gotten quite a bit of love here, and elsewhere. I mean, I'm probably one of the few people that isn't crazy about him, and even I can see a borderline case for being 10th on my list (although I have him in the 20's still, adjusted my list a bit from last time, so as of now, have him 21st). I'm intrigued with Torreyes, but whether it's fair or not, I want to see him continue hitting in the upper levels before ranking him higher. I've made my argument as to why before, so I'll just take Jim Callis' words from the AskBA in early January here - "but he's also 5-foot-7 and lacks a second standout tool, so he's really going to have to max out what he has to make it as a big league regular." I'm not a big fan of Altuve, who I think was ridiculously over-hyped this summer, but at a similar stage, I think Altuve was a better prospect. He strikes out a fair amount more than Torreyes, but not that much to be concerned with the overall numbers, yet he showed more power. If Torreyes shows some power development, then I'd be much more intrigued, but I can't find many people that think that will happen. As with all Cubs prospects that I'm not high on, I hope he proves me wrong. He does add much needed middle infield talent that could be in the upper levels soon, as we had thinned out a bit.

I don't know if it's as much Gamel falling as it is that there seems to be a growing belief that LaHair is legitimately a better offensive player than his Mariners days and has developed a power stroke without sacrificing too much of his contact ability. For the most part, I think people still think Gamel will hit a decent amount.

1. If I knew which Soto I was getting, then perhaps it'd be an easier decision, but I can see the case for liking Mesoraco's upside enough to think that that combination would be better than ours. 2. You know, if I have an issue with the LF rankings, it's with Presley so high. That one I don't get. I don't know if I have a problem with Soriano behind Martinez and the Reds combo - I can see the argument for those two ahead. Presley that high? Don't know about that. I'll wait and see if he's a late bloomer that continues, or if some of the power issues in the low levels reemerge as teams figure him out. 3. I'm on the record as being not that big on Altuve, I'd take Barney over him, but if someone really liked Altuve's offensive ability, okay, I can see an argument there. 4. I don't have a real big issue with Morgan/Gomez over Byrd because of their defensive ability there.