jmajew

I'm not a stat guy, but those projections don't look bad. Am I wrong? Oh yeah, they're bad. 2 guys even remotely close to 100 RBI's is not good. That's 569 runs scored by your starting 8. Somewhere, you would need another 134 runs from the rest of your team just to equal the run production as the horrible 2005 team. Ughh. You have to take into considereing the number of games played in these predictions. That is why the runs are low. Just by looking at the OBP I don't think it is that bad. True, but who will be getting the other at bats? Neifi (-.300 OBP), Blanco (-.300 OBP), Mabry (-.300 OBP last year), Hairston (.336 OBP last year), Jacque Jones (.319 OBP last year), etc... I just want to say this. The Cubs need a manager this year who is willing to play the young guys and let them struggle. If Baker isn't willing to do that then we should cut ties and bring someone in who would. Our best chance to win this year is to play the rooks all year if Baker doen'st realize this he doesn't fit this team. It seems like everyone is saying that Baker is going to play all of these horrible reserves too much. No one has once said that Murton and Cedeno are not upgrades. It seems like everyone agrees Baker is the problem.

.335-.340 or higher in my book That would give us the second highest OBP in the NL.

I see not reason not take a chance. But you wouldn't put him at closer if Dempster gets hurt that is what Howry is for.

Our team OBP last year was 324. What should our goal be? 330-335?

I'm not a stat guy, but those projections don't look bad. Am I wrong? Oh yeah, they're bad. 2 guys even remotely close to 100 RBI's is not good. That's 569 runs scored by your starting 8. Somewhere, you would need another 134 runs from the rest of your team just to equal the run production as the horrible 2005 team. Ughh. You have to take into considereing the number of games played in these predictions. That is why the runs are low. Just by looking at the OBP I don't think it is that bad.

Why would one have to think that? I have to think there's enough evidence to support the idea that this will not necessarily be the case. You're still being overly enthusiastic about the realistic rookie seasons from Murton and Cedeno. And while OBP is huge, it's not the only thing. You still need some SLG, especially when you are guaranteed bad OBP is some spots. Look, you can talk all you want about Pierre upgrade in the leadoff spot. But the fact is, while the Cubs were 16th in the NL in OPS from the CF position last year, that was not all Corey, and Florida was 15th. So, while Pierre in 2006 should be much better than Corey in 2005, the Cubs total CF production is not likely to be all that much better in 2006 than 2005. You should never get so focused on one specific area of offense that you ignore total production. If you want SB, fine, but you better watch out that you don't decrease total production just to increase one component of production. If you want more HR, fine, but don't go after HR at the risk of decreasing total production. The Cubs still have issues with the expected total production from their entire lineup. I'll admit it I am being overly optimistic. I still don't see this offense being any worse than last years. Instead of having two guys in our lineup with and OBP of under 300 we will only have one, if we keep patterson in Right. To me that is automatically an improvement. Plus you also have to take into consideration that you won't have Holly and Dubois taking up time in left field with OBP of under 300. I understand that the upgrades have not been to the caliber that we had all hoped for but I see it as being slightly upgraded. I never said we were going to have a top of the line offense I just said it was upgraded.

I strongly believe that Murton will have and OBP between 340 and 360. He has had a great eye all throughout the minors. There is no reason for that to change. So his average may drop to like 270 but because he has such a good eye he should still have and OBP of around 340. Cedeno is more of a crapshoot. He could be anywhere between 310 and 360. So lets say he is at 330. Cedeno has lowered is SO totals in every year in the minor and his walks have gone up. So I believe Cedeno has been figuring the strike zone out. Guys who have good plate discipline in the minors will still have it in the majors. The players who rely on talent to get through the minors are the ones you need to worry about. The perfect example being Corey Patterson he never learned plate discipline in the minors which is why he never learned it in the pros. I know these kids are rookies but I don't think these OBP would make them even remotely close to all stars. There are a lot of good supporting players in this league who put up OBP like these. That is all i'm asking and hoping from these kids. The numbers I am hoping for are still better than what we had last year from those positions.

And still not reflective of the likely reality. Hendry still wants Walker gone. And Neifi will play a lot. We'd have to be ecstatic with Murton being at .340. He's also not going to start 140 games. Whatever veteran Dusty has a fetish for to sub in will put up some awful numbers. Blanco will start 50 games at have a sub .300 OBP, negating some of the benefit of Barrett's better than average numbers. There is still no bench, but the bench will play. Right now the offense is no better than last year. If they get a RF who can duplicate Burnitz's numbers, the offense might be marginally better. But marginally better is not worth a $100m payroll. Marginally better is unacceptable. Hendry has a lot of work to do, or a lot of luck to hope for, to make this offense significantly better. And significantly better is the only thing Cubs fans should be remotely satisfied with. I really can't argue with the fact that Dusty may not play these young guys who have much more potential than anyone else we could throw out there. One has to think that Dusty will put the guys out there who will give us the best chance to win. Those guys in my opinion are Murton and Cedeno. If both of them play 140 games which they should IMO and I think everyone elses their OBPs of lets say both about 340 is still better than last years from their respected positions. Theoretically, without the Baker problem included, our lineup should be upgraded over last years. Hendry did what he could to upgrade the lineup. If Baker doesn't use the players properly that is his fault.

What killed the offense was a lack of OBP almost everywhere, which was due to a lack of walks. It was not solely because of the 1 and 2 spots, no matter what Hendry tries to sell you this offseason. They sucked in the 4 or 5 spot (whichever one Burnitz was hitting from), and were an awful bottom of the order team as well. And they had absolutely no bench. They were a team full of 6 and 7 hitters. which is why we shouldn't get bogged down in this "filling important holes in the lineup" rhetoric. there are no holes in the lineup, we'll be batting 8 position players ahead of 1 pitcher come april. the problem is with overall organizational hitting philosophy. hendry's too busy hoping we'll all be dazzled by a big name like pierre and the proverbial hole he fills at leadoff to worry about hitting philosophy. this lineup needs a healthy dose of OBP, not at a single position, but at all positions. I don't know about that. Part of this team's problem isn't necessarily the amount of guys who have good OBPs as it is guys who have bad ones. Barrett, Lee, and Aram have all had pretty good to great OBP numbers the last few years. Todd's has been good. But after that we haven't even had guys who've been AVERAGE. Neifi?? Hah! KKKKPat? A joke. LF? A disaster til Murton got there. Backups? Substandard. Bernie was serviceable. Point is, when you have 3-4 players on the field everyday who are so below the NORM its mind boggling, they give the team NO CHANCE. Last year's team was the epitomy of this. Now look at the good teams. Yes some of them are loaded with superstars, but how many guys do they have that bring them down? I guarantee you they don't have 3-4 in their lineup everyday. What I'm trying to say is we don't necessarily have to have great players at every position, just guys who can produce. If we even had average, not good, but average production from our offensive blackholes the last couple of year's (epecially last) this team would have been pretty good. IMO this is the key to the offseason. We don't necessarily need the Tejeda, Furcals, etc. etc., we just CAN'T have the repeat pathetic performances of '05. It may be askig a lot, but if you elevate our CF, LF, SS, and BP to average, plus add SP health this team will be good. Great? Probably not, though it could be if our stars have good years. But it would be good. I think what you are saying is right on. Our problem wasn't that we didn't have enough superstars it was that we filled the holes around our good players with players who had horrible OBP. If you can just get guys with OBP that are average in those positions, our lineup will be better. Which means that Murton, Cedeno, and Pierre will all be upgrades meaning our offense has gotten better this year. There is no possible way to say it didn't improve.

What killed the offense was a lack of OBP almost everywhere, which was due to a lack of walks. It was not solely because of the 1 and 2 spots, no matter what Hendry tries to sell you this offseason. They sucked in the 4 or 5 spot (whichever one Burnitz was hitting from), and were an awful bottom of the order team as well. And they had absolutely no bench. They were a team full of 6 and 7 hitters. which is why we shouldn't get bogged down in this "filling important holes in the lineup" rhetoric. there are no holes in the lineup, we'll be batting 8 position players ahead of 1 pitcher come april. the problem is with overall organizational hitting philosophy. hendry's too busy hoping we'll all be dazzled by a big name like pierre and the proverbial hole he fills at leadoff to worry about hitting philosophy. this lineup needs a healthy dose of OBP, not at a single position, but at all positions. Starting line up as of now with OBP from last year Pierre 326 Walker 355 Lee 418 Ramirez 358 Barrett 345 Murton 386 Cedeno 350 Patterson 254 Assuming Pierre bounces back to the 340-360 range we only ahve one weak spot in our order right now and that is RF. I would have to say our lineup is improved over last year. I don't know how anyone can deny that. The simple fact that we don't have Nefi and Corey or Hairston batting one two improves the lineup. You also can't ignore that there's virtually no chance that Lee, Murton and Cedeno put up OBP's of .418, .386 and .350 over a full season next year. Fine give Lee 390 before he learned how to hit for average last year his OBP was still aroudn 380. Give Murton 360 he has had a great eye his entire minor league career and there is no way that will change now that he is in the majors. Then give Cedeno 330. That is still better than last year.

What killed the offense was a lack of OBP almost everywhere, which was due to a lack of walks. It was not solely because of the 1 and 2 spots, no matter what Hendry tries to sell you this offseason. They sucked in the 4 or 5 spot (whichever one Burnitz was hitting from), and were an awful bottom of the order team as well. And they had absolutely no bench. They were a team full of 6 and 7 hitters. which is why we shouldn't get bogged down in this "filling important holes in the lineup" rhetoric. there are no holes in the lineup, we'll be batting 8 position players ahead of 1 pitcher come april. the problem is with overall organizational hitting philosophy. hendry's too busy hoping we'll all be dazzled by a big name like pierre and the proverbial hole he fills at leadoff to worry about hitting philosophy. this lineup needs a healthy dose of OBP, not at a single position, but at all positions. Starting line up as of now with OBP from last year Pierre 326 Walker 355 Lee 418 Ramirez 358 Barrett 345 Murton 386 Cedeno 350 Patterson 254 Assuming Pierre bounces back to the 340-360 range we only ahve one weak spot in our order right now and that is RF. I would have to say our lineup is improved over last year. I don't know how anyone can deny that. The simple fact that we don't have Nefi and Corey or Hairston batting one two improves the lineup.

At this point a youth movement would probably be best, but then you have to figure with Dusty that's never going to happen. Hopefully Ronny and Matt don't go on a prolonged slump, otherwise they may get nailed to the bench. If Jacque Jones does indeed sign I cringe to think about how bad the offense is going to be in 2006. It's going to be 2005 all over again, but this time without an MVP calibur season from Derrek Lee. It's sad to think about, but at this point I'm ready to pack it in for the 2006 season. Hopefully the Cubs can get a competent GM and manager for 2007, but that would be too logical. I don't see how everyone can immediately assume that our offense will be worse than last year. The reason our offense was horrible last year was because the OBP of or top two was like .300. That was what killed us. With the addition of Pierre and Walker batting second our offense should be upgraded no matter what. Yes it is not upgraded to the extent we all wish it would have been but it is upgraded none the less. No, I do not want Jones especially in a multi-year deal. I'd rather play Patterson in right and see what we can do. If the top of the order performs and the 5 hole is our biggest problem then we go out and trade for a RF during the season.

I don't think any player deserves more than a 4 year contract. I think there is too much of a risk of signing any player to more than that. If the player gets hurt or doen't produce their options become limited. For that reason I love the way the NFL does it. I like the fact their contracts are not gauranteed, it makes them work each and every year for their money. In baseball if a guy has one great year in his contract year he can get a boatload of money. The perfect example being Adrian Beltre. I think if you don't produce you have the right to be released. The player should fight for a signing bonus and then not have the contract guaranteed. Granted I do also think there should be a salary cap in baseball. I think all this spending big money on free agents takes the fun out of building a team IMO.

I think the Cubs organization screwed him up by insisting he be a leadoff hitter. We should have realized that he wasn't one. I think that was what messed up his head last year. Corey will be a middle of the order hitter for some team eventually. I really like the point Paul Sullivan made in his article today, which i believe has its own thread, in which he says: That gives me even a bit more hope that Corey can and will bounce back.

You'd have to pass a referrendum against booing him. If you could do that I wouldnt be against it. I wonder how many people actually still like Corey Patterson? 10-20? Yes, I am one of those people. Play Corey in right in 2006. It seems to me like Wilson is just a righthanded version of Corey, so why not stick with Corey.

so just because you didn't think they'd be good, the fact that they were means it was luck? i don't get what you're saying. i'm really surprised by all the white sox hate here. i don't know how anyone can deny that kw has done better than hendry over the past few years. kw is working w/ a lower payroll, an armpit of a stadium that they can't fill, and a rookie manager. hendry has a huge payroll, one of the most beloved stadiums filled w/ fans, and supposedly one of the best managers in baseball. yet the white sox won the WS and the cubs finished in 4th place. come on...things are looking pretty good for the white sox right now, and the last two years of hendry has been nothing short of a big fat F. and to everybody clamoring about how the sox were lucky...does everyone remember what type of hitter dlee was before he flirted w/ .400 and the triple crown? or what kind of hitter barrett was before he became the best offensive catcher in the nl? or what type of pitcher dempster was before he became one of the best closers in baseball last season? how about murton hitting .320 straight from AA? ramirez going from flop to stud? Nope. You missed it entirely, my friend. I said that the Yankees, Boston and St. Louis were better teams than the White Sox last year. That's it. Nothing more. That's still giving them credit for having the 4th best team in baseball. That's nothing to sneeze at. I gave KW credit, and I said he's had a great offseason so far this year. And it had very little to do with luck. I have a question for you. Going into the 2005 season, could you honestly (and I do mean honestly) tell me that the White Sox starting pitchers (Buehrle, Garland, Contreras, El Duque and Garcia) were going to have a better season than (Randy Johnson, Mike Mussina, Carl Pavano, Jaret Wright and Shawn Chacon) or (Curt Schilling, Matt Clement, Wade Miller, Tim Wakefield and David Wells)? I know i'm jumping in this convo a bit late and I apologize for that. But all you are doing is listing all the very good to great players these teams have. I do not believe that you can build a great "team" by throwing together a bunch of allstars. IMO, there is a huge difference between a team that plays well together and a team that has a bunch of players who are individually great. With that said I do not think you can build a World Championsihp team just by throwing together allstars. There has to be something extra there which is brought about by teams that work well together. I hope this makes sense. I am having a hard time getting my ideas out tonight.

Maybe he was planning on putting Pierre in Left and then trading Alou.

I hope that is sarcasm.... If I were the Cubs i'd just play the rookies, Cedeno, Pie, and Murton. If they put up the numbers Bill Jame projected i think we have a very good chance of making the playoffs. If not by 2007 they should all be ready for a big years. I got this from Gammons...Cubs CF Felix Pie to hit 21 HR and an .874 OPS; Cubs INF Ronnie Cedeno .310 with an .800 OPS; Murton .318 with an .859 OPS. I'm going to take a wild stab and say Gammons has probably never seen Pie play. If Pie has an .874 OPS, I'll assume that he will have to hit somewhere between .330-.350 to have that high of an OPS considering he has a walk rate that hovers right around where Corey's is, and he has yet to develop the power Corey had in 2003 when Corey's OPS was .840. Basically 3 rookies that will all hit .310 or better? I want some of what he's smoking. Those were Bill James's projections...I just got them from off an old Gammons article.

I hope that is sarcasm.... If I were the Cubs i'd just play the rookies, Cedeno, Pie, and Murton. If they put up the numbers Bill Jame projected i think we have a very good chance of making the playoffs. If not by 2007 they should all be ready for a big years. I got this from Gammons...Cubs CF Felix Pie to hit 21 HR and an .874 OPS; Cubs INF Ronnie Cedeno .310 with an .800 OPS; Murton .318 with an .859 OPS.

The Cubs probably could have had him for 4m if they showed some interest at the end of the season. That is a scary thought.

Murton has a good chance to produce enough to justify his spot in LF. Cedeno has a good chance to produce enough to justifty his position at SS. Corey has almost no chance to produce enough to justify his spot in RF. I'm fine with keeping Corey, as a 4th OF (giving Murton and Pierre the occasional day off). But the lineup you listed is so incredibly weak and completely unjustified given a $100 million payroll. I don't think any other availbe Free Agents justify a spot in RF either. Of all the players left for RF I feel Patterson has the most potential. None of those other guys will put us over the top, but if Patterson somehow reverts back to his 2003 form he could put us over the top, and if he goes back to his 2004 form he is just as good any of the other guys we could sign. I'd prefer us to trade for a big bat but at this rate it seems like Hendry is just going to sign one of Jones, Encarnacion, or Sanders. Those guys just don't do it for me. But at least none of those guys have ever put up a cosmically, historically bad season like Patterson did in '05. Yeah Corey had a bad year, but he still has more potential then the rest of the FAs available. One bad season doesn't ruin a career. Potential? What potential? He had the worst season of any Cub in the last 44 years. Do you know how many bad baseball players have been on the Cubs during that time? By potential, do you mean that he runs fast? Because that's really about it. He doesn't know the strike zone, he hasn't learned to bunt, his power is spotty, he misjudges fly balls in the outfield and he struggles to make contact. He's a bad baseball player. That's all there is to it. Yet because of "potential" and "upside," fans get jaded into thinking he can actually produce. It's the same reason that NBA teams take high school projects over established college stars -- they like the excitement and mystery of upside. I've said this numerous times in this thread I believe. None of the guys who are Free Agents will put us over the top. Which means I really so no reason to sign them. If Patterson somehow figures it out and produces like he did in 2003 we will have a chance to make the playoffs. I'd rather take the risk of Patterson figures out how to lay of high fastballs than sign a mediocore player at best to play RF for 7 million bucks a year. If the Cubs invest 7 mil a year on Jones you know for a fact that they will not try to trade for a new RF during the season. If they have Patterson out there and he struggles they will be willing to trade for a Difference maker to play in Right. During the season it is very possible that players like Floyd, Abreu, JD Drew, Pat Burrell, Adam Dunn, or Geoff Jenkins could become available.

Yeah, but is it possible part of the reason their numbers were better because there defense was improved?

Yeah, but is it possible part of the reason their numbers were better because there defense was improved?

No to mention the fact they signed AJ Pierzinksi who a lot of the White Sox pitchers credit for doing an excellent job. Say what you want about his personality but the man is talented. i gotta agree with you guys and goony on this one. And I also applaud Williams for not sitting back and doing nothing, being satisfised with just one WS. He's trying to make the team better next year so they can do it again. Who knows how good Chris Young can be? Obviously the Sox are high on Brian Anderson and feel he can be a more than adequate CF. they've already upgraded their offense by adding another basher to the lineup and they've upgraded their rotation as well. As of right now, they're looking poised for another potential WS run in 06. I do want to say this. I think losing Rowand will hurt them more than most think. Rowand is one of the three best defensive CFs in all of baseball. I put him right up there with Hunter and Jones. The question is how big of a drop is Anderson in CF defensively and can Thome help the Sox put up enough runs to make up for that dropoff. This depends on how healthy Thome actually is.

Murton has a good chance to produce enough to justify his spot in LF. Cedeno has a good chance to produce enough to justifty his position at SS. Corey has almost no chance to produce enough to justify his spot in RF. I'm fine with keeping Corey, as a 4th OF (giving Murton and Pierre the occasional day off). But the lineup you listed is so incredibly weak and completely unjustified given a $100 million payroll. I don't think any other availbe Free Agents justify a spot in RF either. Of all the players left for RF I feel Patterson has the most potential. None of those other guys will put us over the top, but if Patterson somehow reverts back to his 2003 form he could put us over the top, and if he goes back to his 2004 form he is just as good any of the other guys we could sign. I'd prefer us to trade for a big bat but at this rate it seems like Hendry is just going to sign one of Jones, Encarnacion, or Sanders. Those guys just don't do it for me. But at least none of those guys have ever put up a cosmically, historically bad season like Patterson did in '05. Yeah Corey had a bad year, but he still has more potential then the rest of the FAs available. One bad season doesn't ruin a career.