jmajew

What gives you the impression that Theriot can perform at an Eckstien level? Eckstein in college and with the exception of one half season in the minors posted OBP in excess of 400. Theriot has not come close to that. Why do you think Theriot projects to have those numbers other than the fact he's scrappy and white like Eckstein? The cost of your team if you get Wells or Jones will greatly exceed mine. If I could get Wells or Jones, I would as well. I still wouldn't get Padilla and if I had those, I'd likely pursue Durham which would still be a better option than Theriot. I like Ryan. As an LSU fan, I hope he will suceed as a Cub, but there's nothing in his history that projects to anything like what Eckstein has done. Your hopes for Theriot are based on a measley 100 AB's. It's pie-in-the-sky thinking. Cedeno has just as much liklihood of becoming Tejada as Theriot has of becoming Eckstein. Honestly, I think it because certain people develop at different rates than others. I think Theriot is just now figuring it out. I don't think he can keep up his 412 OBP but I definitely think he can keep up his 350 OBP. Like he has had every year in the minors since his first two. If you don't give the kid a chance you will never know what he can do. He has played well this past month so he deserves the chance just like Cedeno did last year. However, the difference being Cedeno only had one good year in the minors where Theriot has had two and Theriot has always shown good plate discipline. I also don't understand the fascination with us adding more power to the Lineup. Adding a healthy Derrek Lee and getting a platoon for Jones should give us more than enough pop in the middle of the order. You can expect the 3-4-5 all to give you atleast 30 homeruns. You can expect Barrett to hit his 15 and Murton to hit between 15-20. We have enough power. Our team lacks OBP and Soriano besides this year does not provide that.

While I don't necessarily disagree with most of your post, or the main gist of it, I think you're missing an important consideration in the line above. I have more faith that Theriot could provide adequate play at 2b NEXT YEAR than I do in many of our young pitchers providing adequate play as starters NEXT YEAR. But I have more faith that one or more of those young pitchers will provide above average play as starters a couple years down the road than I do that Theriot will ever be more than just adequate. Plus, with our injury history, it's probably a certainty that there will be plenty opportunities to get starts at the major league level next year for these guys even if they begin the year in AAA. Yet I don't think Padilla is necessarilly the best option. But the issue becomes if Padilla or someone like him is brought in, that pitcher will be here for three years in all liklihood. If Zambrano is signed long term, and Prior works out his issues, then a number of those pitchers will have to be let go. If they aren't able to establish value in the majors, many will be let go cheaply to realize that possible ceiling somewhere other than Chicago. I'm willing to gamble that one of a possible five can become valuable next season more so than I'm able to gamble that Theriot will become something than no one has ever really projected him to be. The clear difference between both of us is the value of Theriot. I really think he will be a David Eckstein type of player, hopefully with a higher OBP. I think our arms have too much value on the trade market right now. I'd be more than willing to trade 3 of Marshall/Ryu/Guzman/Mateo/Marmol for a CF. Either Vernon Wells or Andruw Jones. I would even throw in Pie for one of them, preferably Wells since he is only 27. Heck we could then go sign Schmidt. I guess I just don't like Soriano. I don't think he is a good fit and I think he will make way too much. My bet is we could sign Wells if we trade for him to a 5/55 or 5/60 type of deal. If we get wells for 11 mil a year I think it would be more likely we could get schmidt and Padilla still. Theriot, Barrett, DLee, Ramirez, Wells, Jones/Platoon, Murton, Izturis looks good to me. Zambrano, Schmidt, Hill, Padilla, Prior also looks good.

Here's the numbers again from my previous post. I may be off on a few, but many of these came from Cot's and I'm using the consensus from a yahoo.com article on what it may take to sign the FA. After, eating Rusch's 2.5 million I'm a little over 100 million. I think adding Schmidt will be enough to make the pitching tremendously better. With this rotation, we're counting on Hill, but at 26 years old, he should be ready. There is a risk with Prior as well. With the number of arms vying for the fifth spot, there should be adequate depth so that there's no need to spend the additional money on Padilla. However, if the Cubs wanted to bump payroll into the 105-107 range, it would be feasible to dump Wilson or DeRosa and then sign Padilla. I'm just not for the move. Furthermore, this line-up doesn't account for any trades. A trade of a surplus pitcher and a player like Cedeno could net another player or two for depth purposes. As this line-up shows, there is no need to be "cost efficient" with second. If you think Soriano is too expensive and want to sign Padilla, fine. Then sign Padilla and use the left over to sign Ray Durham. I've allocated 14 million for Soriano. I'm sure that's enough to get both Padillla and Durham. I guess there is nothing I can really say to this. We have a difference in opinion on how to build a consistently good team for years to come. I think you have to take educated risks. Theriot I think will be a pretty good ballplayer if given the chance. I don't think Pie will be ready next year and I think tossing him in would only hurt him. I think in order to win a World Series you need to have 3 top of the line starters, or atleast guys who pitch like that. I think with Schmidt and Zambrano you have two. Then between Hill, Padilla, Prior we have a pretty good chance for one of them to step up.

Can someone explain to me why the Cubs have had the 12th best offense in baseballe in the second half? If we are so bad offensively? Why can't this stretch be continued? I believe if you build a team around strictly offense you will be setting yourself up for a major letdown. They may get to the playoffs but they most likely won't win unless they have a dominant pitching staff. My philosophy is you build an above average offense, which ours has proved to be in the second half and then get a top end pitching staff. If you have an offense in the top 15 and a staff in the top 7 in baseball odds are you will make the playoffs. Then when you get to the playoffs you can ride your staff to the title. The Yankees the past 6 years have had great offenses but becasue they have no pitching they cannot win. You need a balance. An offense of Lofton, Theriot, Lee, Ramirez, Jones/Platoon, Murton, Barrett, Izturis should be that above average offense. A rotation of Zambrano, Schmidt, Hill, Padilla, Prior should be extremely dominant. A Lineup of Murton, Barrett, Lee, Ramirez, Soriano, Jones, Theriot, Izturis should be better than the other one but not by that much. A rotation of Zambrano, Schmidt, Hill, Prior, Marshall/Guzman/Marmol/etc is acceptable however, we will have two question marks in the rotation. Unless the Cubs can build a top 5 offense I don't see why we would waste money on Soriano or CLee. You have a better chance of winning a world series with an average offense and great pitching then you do with a great offense and average pitching. I know you are gonna say the Red Sox won but they had a pretty good starting rotation. They just had a bad bullpen besides Foulke and Timlin. There staff was in the top 4 in the AL that year and they had the best offense.

A team with a 100 million plus payroll doens't have to be too cost efficient. And no, I don't think platooning Jones and signing Lofton to go with what we have will be enough. Now, if the Cubs added Tejada or Andruw Jones, then we might could have Izturis and Theriot up the middle with Murton in left and Jones in right and be ok. Or, if we move Jones to CF and sign or trade for a bopper in right we might be ok with Theriot as a 2b. But there's nothing that indicates Theriot can sustain that OBP in the majors and if he does, it still comes at the lack of slugging. Furthermore, with the number of secondbasemen on the market: Kennedy, Walker, Durham, Soriano, Kent, Biggio, Castillo and others, it just doesn't make sense to gamble with Theriot. For my buck, I'd sign Soriano for second and go cost efficient with either Pie in CF. I have a thread somewhere around here where I show the Cubs with a 101 million payroll can afford both Schmidt and Soriano if they use Pie in CF. If they bumb to 108, they likely could have either Pierre, Cameron, or Edmonds in CF. That is my point. I don't think Schmidt alone will make our pitching staff good enough. We need to add two quality starters. We need a Schmidt and a Vincente Padilla. Our rotation has been just as bad if not worse than our offense. 100 million dollar payroll is what we can expect next year. I believe we already have somewhere around 70 million guarenteed for next year. I"m going to do some research and figure out exactly how much. What makes you think Theriot cannot sustain his MiLB numbers from the past two years? What evidence do you have? I have evidence that since he stopped switch hitting he became a much better hitter and that was why his numbers weren't nearly as good when he was younger. Edit: Found some salaries at Cubsnet.com. They have the Cubs down for 53.8 million next year. That however does not include the salaries of Murton, Zambrano, Prior, Theriot, Pagan. So 70 million is a safe assumption in my opinion. Zambrano will make atleast 8 and Prior will prolly make around 4.

NO! YOU CANT LIKE HIM! HE DOESNT HAVE THE MINOR LEAUGE #'S! YOU ARE OBVIOUSLY INSANE! THE #'S TELL ALL! Your point that we don't know everything by the numbers is well-known. But it's a risk vs reward situation. While you are right, Theriot may exceed what his MiLB numbers indicate. It could be possible that his 100 ABs this season are more relevant than his entire career. Maybe. It is more likely that this is a hot streak, and that Theriot will revert to what the projections of his MiLB numbers indicate. No one knows for certain which is the case. But it seems a little risky in my opinion to risk that Theriot will perform at a level much higher than his MiLB equivalents indicate, especially in a market flooded with proven performers at secondbase. Liken to this: Which would be a better retirement option, investing in a mutual fund or buying lottery tickets. The mutual fund is safe, though not a sure thing, safer than lottery tickets. But, someone has to win the lottery, and if you do, the payout will be tremendous. However, the odds are more in favor of the positive result, though with a lower ceiling and greater cost, to invest in the mutual fund. I don't know too many people who would make lottery tickets their investment choice, so I'm having a hard time understanding why people want to gamble 2007 with Theriot. I understand what you are saying Vance. I am just trying to look at this through a cost effective approach. I say we will upgrade our offense by getting a platoon for Jones and a CF like Lofton who can actually bat leadoff. I think a flier on Theriot is well worth it. Honestly do you think he will put up an OBP of less than 340 next year? Our offense has been better in the second half because our team OBP has gone up because guys like Murton and Theriot have gotten more playing time and because Pierre and Ramirez didn't stink it up like they did in the first half. I believe a team OBP of 330 next year is obtainable with the few moves i have suggested. I know that isn't great but it is a huge improvement for us and shoudl translate in about 50-100 more runs. The Cubs have 30 million to play with this offseason. Would you rather spend 15 mil a year on Soriano/Lee, then spend 4 mil on a 2b, and then only have 11 to work with the rotation. Or would you rather spend 3 mil on Lofton and 3 mil on Craig wilson and then spend 24 million on the rotation. I'd rather spend it on the rotation. edit we probably will have even less to play with depending on raises to guys liek Zambrano and Ramirez. So expect only 25 mil to play with. So that would put it 6 mil for the rotation and 19 mil for the rotation.

Just because one guy failed doesn't mean that the next guy will. You have to give young players a shot. That is why teams like the Braves, Marlins, A's, and twins have been good for years now.

Since when did minor league statistics=major league statistics? I must have missed this. If true, our offseason should revolve around doing anything possible to get Jack Cust. We'd have a future MVP. If he played like garbage while he had been up here I would say he isn't capable of doing this. But since he has had 100 at bats up at the big show and has had an OBP of 412 I feel fairly confident in saying he is capable of maintaining his minor league stats. You're right. Let's ignore his minor league history in favor of 100 at bats at the end of a season. I never said ignore his minor league stats so don't put words in my mouth.

Thanks I"m not a moron. Theriot should be able to have a 360 OBP next year for the Cubs. Since 2004 when he stopped being a switch hitter he has had an OBP of 360. So I have faith he can keep that up. I see no reason why the Cubs can't let go of Pierre and go after Lofton and allow Pagan to get a few spot starts out there. We need a platoon for Jones. Lofton, Theriot, DLee, Ramirez, Jones/Platoon, Murton, Barrett, Izturis/Cedeno is not a bad lineup. ObP for this season for all of them. Lofton 363, Theriot 412 bit high prolly 360 next year, DLee 369, Ramirez 354, Jones vs RH 354 Wilson vs LH 354, Murton 362, Barrett 368, Izturis 282. I'm sorry but I don't see why this lineup could not compete. Am I missing something? It's easier to say we need a platoon for Jones than it will be to convince Hendry to get one and the next manager to use it properly. And penciling in Theriot for a .360 OBP is quite aggressive. It is agressive but even if it is 340 I'd still take it. How do you suggest we spend our money. Assuming a 100 million dollar limit. We should have about 30 million to work with this offseason.

Since when did minor league statistics=major league statistics? I must have missed this. If true, our offseason should revolve around doing anything possible to get Jack Cust. We'd have a future MVP. If he played like garbage while he had been up here I would say he isn't capable of doing this. But since he has had 100 at bats up at the big show and has had an OBP of 412 I feel fairly confident in saying he is capable of maintaining his minor league stats.

I agree with ithe idea, but it will be a cold day in hell before the Cubs spend that much $$$$. If fact the Cubs will be out-bid on all 3 players. Zito - Muts Schmidt - Mariners Daisuke - Spankees I think we shoudl over any of those three a 3yr/42 mil deal and then go out and sign Vincente Padiall to 3 yr/ 18 mil. Our rotation Zambrano, Schmidt, Hill, Padilla, Prior is quality. With the moves I suggested and filling our bench with guys that are alrady in our system Cedeno, Moore, Pagan, Soto, Pie our payroll would be about 98.5 million. Which I believe will be the cubs Limit.

Thanks I"m not a moron. Theriot should be able to have a 360 OBP next year for the Cubs. Since 2004 when he stopped being a switch hitter he has had an OBP of 360. So I have faith he can keep that up. I see no reason why the Cubs can't let go of Pierre and go after Lofton and allow Pagan to get a few spot starts out there. We need a platoon for Jones. Lofton, Theriot, DLee, Ramirez, Jones/Platoon, Murton, Barrett, Izturis/Cedeno is not a bad lineup. ObP for this season for all of them. Lofton 363, Theriot 412 bit high prolly 360 next year, DLee 369, Ramirez 354, Jones vs RH 354 Wilson vs LH 354, Murton 362, Barrett 368, Izturis 282. I'm sorry but I don't see why this lineup could not compete. Am I missing something? I just think the Cubs have a limited amount of resources and that spending them on the offense would be a mistake. Our pitching is the most serious problem.

I put this in another thread but I think this deserves its own. Since the All Star Break the Cubs have had the 12th best offense in baseball. There pitching Staff has been the 5th worst. Pre-All Star our team OBP was 317 since then it has been 327. Everyone keeps talking about us needing to go out get offense well I say we don't need to get much. We need a platoon for Jones, Craig Wilson is perfect, we can either re-sign Pierre or go after Lofton to play center and bat leadoff. Then you allow Theriot to play 2b. We can then use all of our available money to resign Ramirez and to go after Zito, Schmidt and Daisuke. Our concern should be our pitching not our offense.

I know I"m jumping in late but I see Theriot being a David Eckstein type of player. And quite frankly if he is we have a 2 hitter for the next 10 years. He will never be a star but he will be above average to good in every aspect. Eckstein did not make it to the big time till he was 26 either. Some people reach their potential a bit later. I have been an advocate of going out and trading for a 2b. But since the all-star break the cubs have had the 12 best offense in baseball. So I think we should keep the team the way it is currently constructed. Except if Pierre wants too much and too long go for Lofton and we need a platoon for Jones. Pierre, Theriot, DLee, Ramirez, Jones/Platoon, Murton, Barrett, Izturis. We should spend all of our money on starting pitching this offseason. Since teh All Star break we have allowed the 5th most runs in baseball.

Jacque Jones for Freddy Garcia sounds good to me. He may not be a stud but he can be penciled in for 200+ innings and in the 4 spot.

Thome is done? He's got a 1000+ OPS and will probably have played in 140+ games. Quick White Sox solution for next year. Keep Anderson in CF and let Sweeney play LF and put Fields and 3b. You then trade Crede and Garcia. Maybe workout a three team deal with the Orioles that lands the Sox Tejada. Or trade both of them separately and get teh best defensive shortstop available...Hopefully for the Cubs sake an Izturis and Will Ohman deal could net the Cubs Garcia.

Really? I don't mean to take anything away from his daughter's situation (not to mention his whole family's situation), but it seems like a strange thing to retire because for. Also, where was the quote, if he said it? There was no quote. This is based on a post in the other thread about Lee not playing the rest of the season. This isn't any kind of proof, and the guy could be wrong, but it doesn't seem like he has a reason to lie...and besides, it still raises the hypothetical question whether Lee said it or not. It's not stretch to think he'd retire, at least for a while, f his daughter is seriously ill for an extended period of time. Is it really that strange to see him retire over this? If I had his money and one of my kids was seriously ill or injured, I'd take at least an entire season or two off to be with my family, probably more. I was the one who posted the first thing about Lee retiring. My brother told me and he heard it on the score this morning. I dont' know how true it is. I was just trying to point out how serious the situation may be.

I heard today that Derrek said that if this is a life-threatening condition and his daughter is sick for an extended period of time he will retire and spend all of his time with his family. I trully hope this is not the case, but if it is he would be making the right decision. Family is the most important thing in the world. If you have enough money to allow you to take that time off you should. My prayers are with the Lee family.

Yeah, I sort of hijacked the thread. However, I don't think you'll find factual evidence that AVG with RISP is the reason teams score more runs than other teams. While some players on a team may do better in those situations, there will likely be guys who do worse in those situations on that same team. The way to truly improve runs scored is to increase your OBP, which gives guys (good or bad at AVG with RISP) more opportunities to drive in runs. The same can be said for the info TheDude is requesting. Just in reverse. A team that has the better WHIP will likely give up less runs than teams that have a much higher WHIP. It's tough to gather the information he requests. The Cubs have been very good as a team in not giving up hits. But, walks can be just as damaging and they are horrible when it comes to allowing baserunners. I don't really think it correlates to AVG with RISP as much as it correlates to OBP in relation to runs scored. WHIP ia a hugely important stat for a pitcher. So is wins, and BAA Wins are almost meaningless unless a pitcher completes the vast majority of his starts. BAA will show up in WHIP, although if a pitcher doesn't walk very many batters he could have a high BAA and respectable WHIP. Jon Garland being a prime example. 185 IP, 208 H, 1.32 Whip, 36 BB Zambrano 193 IP, 148 H, 1.31 Whip, 104 BB. On a Side not Carlos Throw considerably more walks when he has thrown over 90 pitches then when he is under. 91-105 Pitches: 259 BAA, 393 OBP, 376 SLG, 759 OPS 106-120 Pitches: 293 BAA, 362 OBP, 479 SLG, 841 OPS Total: 212 BAA, 314 OBP, 359 SLG, 673 OPS. I think these stats go to prove that he is less effective after 90 pitches and it causes me to question even more what Dusty is thinking by allowing him to average 109 pitches per game. The emphasis this organization has on the strikeout is going to doom our pitchign staff. IMO, Carlos walks a lot of batters because he feels he has to strike them out. If he had more trust in his defense he would throw more strikes and throw less pitches which would allow him to go deeper in games. This organization needs to realize the fact that if you want to build a team around defense like we tried to do this year you can't keep emphasizing the strikeout. Those two go together like oil and water. They need to have one plan and stick with it.

Probably not very. I did the numbers a couple of months ago, and for the Cubs to be able to afford one position and one pitching free agent means we have to play a couple of kids. So, either no Kent or no Pierre, instead Theriot/Fontenot or Pie (or maybe both). Hendry re-signing Pierre :cry: (and most likely giving ARam a raise) probably prohibits him trading for Tejada, too. Tho that may create salary space for a Ray Durham type. Think: CF Pierre LF Murton 1B Lee 3B Ramirez C Barrett RF Jones 2B Durham SS Izturis or 2B Theriot/Fontenot LF Murton 1B Lee CF AJones 3B Ramirez C Barrett RF Jones SS Izturis Both are minor improvements over this year, and combined with a pitching upgrade, we may compete. Not having a power guy in the minors ready to step in really limits what can be done. Thirty more home runs and 20 points of OBP turns this into a halfway decent offense. We should be looking to trade Jacque JOnes. There are a lot of overpriced outfielders who teams may be looking to dump. Guys like Pat Burrell, JD Drew, Andruw Jones, Manny Ramirez, Vernon Wells. My two ideal guys would be Wells and Burrell. I could definitely see Gillick wanting to dump Burrell's salary and be willing to take Jones and a pitcher who will be ready for next season, Marshall/Guzman/Mateo/Marmol. The Phillies could use the 5 million they save on another starter for next year. The problem with Wells is do we have the resources to get him. I highly doubt they would take Jones.

The Dodgers will obviously want a prospect in the deal, if they have to acquire Jones in your scenerio. But depending on how much they want to pick up, would depend on the prospect they got. Obviously, the Gallagher/Veal/Pawelek/Pie would be off-limit, but would somebody like Mateo or Wuertz tempt the Dodgers? IDK, but I would investigate if I was Hendry. I don't think anything's obvious here, except that the entire scenario depends greatly on the Dodgers' level of motivation to clear that money. I get the impression that Pat Gillick would be absolutely thrilled to take a guy like Jones back if it meant ridding himself of Pat Burrell and his bloated contract. If the Dodgers get to a similar point with Drew, then anything's possible. I'll tell you right now I'd be an advocate of trading Jones and Mateo/Guzman/Marmol for Pat Burrell. DLee-Ramirez-Burrell looks pretty solid.

Ramirez 5/70 (Cubs) Pierre 4/36 (Nationals) Wood 2/5 + incentives (Cubs) Miller 1/2 Blanco 1/1.5 Mabry retire Guys Cubs will sign Lugo 4/32 will need new leadoff hitter once Pierre leaves Mulder 3/15 + incentives Ted Lilly 3/15 Lofton 1/3 I want no part of Mulder or Lilly but these are moves I can see Hendry making.

Not sure how the Angels fit as an example. But the Marlins and A's go with youth out of necessity, they can't afford anything else. And they are much better at developing their youth. The question is whether or not you want to contend next year. If you're building for the future, by all means stay away from veteran arms and let the youth develop. But if you are trying to increase your odds of conteding next season, it would be a terrible mistake to go into 2007 with Hill projected as the 3rd best pitcher. That is unless, of course, you are pouring a ton of money into a lineup that will vault to the top of the runs scored list, which I wouldn't object to. I completely agree with Goony on this one. If you want to contend next year you cannot count on Hill being anything more than a 4th or 5th starter. If we can get 4 guys better than him you have to feel very good about our rotation. Hill has the potential to be a 2 and if he turns out that way great. As of now he hasn't proved enough.

I definitely agree. He is a good player but if you want to be cost conscious couldn't you get a guy like Ray Durham/Julio Lugo/Mark Loretta for a lot cheaper and use the other money/prospects to work on the rotation. I don't see it being that big of a drop off Durham etc to Young. Whether or not it's a big drop off depends on Durham's production. He's had quite the resurgence this year, but whether or not he can maintain it next year is ify at best. If both Young and Marcus Giles are available, I'd prefer to have Giles to Young. The only thing out of the ordinary about Durham this year is his slugging, and even if that returns to previous norms he's still an excellent option. Who would come at a cheaper price Giles or Young? I'd have to believe Giles.

I definitely agree. He is a good player but if you want to be cost conscious couldn't you get a guy like Ray Durham/Julio Lugo/Mark Loretta for a lot cheaper and use the other money/prospects to work on the rotation. I don't see it being that big of a drop off Durham etc to Young.