PECOTA: 5.44 ERA Bill James: 5.14 CHONE: 5.13 ZIPS: 4.95 I'd say 4.40 is pretty optimistic. I'd love for it to happen, but it's more likely we see a 5-something. Previous to last year he put up ERA's of 4.13 and 3.71 and some other crappy ones. There is reason to believe he could fall inline close to the above numbers this year. no... baseball projections are always dead-on amen to that sarcasm. gut feelings from fans of the team the guy signs with following a good spring training outing are typically much more accurate. Gut feelings. Or just going to carreer #'s and the last few years? what else would you prefer to look at? Well when I judge a player I try to look at their carreer #'s first. And then look at their recent trends. It's not ridiculous to think Marquis could be good when he had 1 bad year, and 2 good years before that. It's the same thing to expect Soriano to reproduce his last year. He won't. You just adjust that to his last few years.