Lilly would win arbitration if the team offered 9.6M, and then the team has Lilly for 15M for one year, which isn't bad, but if you don't have it in your budget to drop 15M on a pitcher, it really messes things up. Above average 34 year old starting pitchers with decent health histories don't take a lot of 1 year contracts True, but he's not getting anywhere near $15 million a year anywhere else at his age.