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Exile on Waveland

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Everything posted by Exile on Waveland

  1. Exile on Waveland
    I'll admit that it's possible that I'm missing an obvious fundamental point about WAR; I'm not a numbers guru (as far as understanding). I've never claimed omniscience. However, I'm not a neophyte either (I've read Baseball Between the Numbers, The Book, BP/fangraphs, this board for years, etc). That said, I think the way WAR is being used in this thread is so basic that I'm not sure WAR theory would help.
  2. Exile on Waveland
    I literally have no idea how to do this. I know that Ramirez was worth 3.6 WAR this year and Baker was worth -0.4 WAR. I'm guessing a veteran stopgap worth $2 million probably isn't netting more than like one WAR. I expect I know where you're going with this; but I'm skeptical of any formula that ends with a proposition that a good player is only worth like 1-1.5 wins over a bad player. Call me a Luddite, if you must, but I don't think I can believe that.
  3. Exile on Waveland
    I'm not really sure if you're arguing with me or just making another point . . . but, either way, I don't disagree with any of this. I believe signing Ramirez to the deal I expect him to receive would be a very big mistake. I just don't agree, at all, that losing Ramirez will be casually brushed off production-wise. (Again, that doesn't mean it can't be covered up by superior production elsewhere; I expect it can. I just think the internal third-base options are likely to be awful.)
  4. Exile on Waveland
    Well, the equation is really Aramis v.s. 2 scrub players + the player(s) you spend his $15 million on You may gain more wins playing 2 scrubs at 3B and signing CJ Wilson versus resigning Aram and having Cashner start. Yes, I understand that. I explicitly said I'm not really in favor of re-signing Ramirez (therefore at least implying because the money would be more valuably spent elsewhere). What I disagree with, and I believe this was quite clear, is the notion that losing Ramirez won't damage third-base production. I think Kyle is just arguing that the hit is manageable...not that there wouldn't be a hit. He's just saying that the hit isn't as big as most people's perception would say. I don't doubt he's right that the high might not be as big as perception. However, while I cannot disprove WAR mathematically, I cannot fathom whatever platoon only being worth one or so less wins that Ramirez.* *Someone will, I'm sure, say "what if Ramirez tanks?" I'll grant that's possible -- it's the reason I don't want him re-signed for long (I think the tanking is around the corner). I'm just not really sure the chances of that are any greater than the whatever-minor-league-platoon-player tanking. I think the downside is far greater for the latter, making this rather moot.
  5. Exile on Waveland
    That's not what I'm saying. I'm saying there's reason to believe he might be different, but it's not a certainty. But I think it's a risk worth taking if our only other option is to overpay for a 34 year old, oft-injured third baseman. That said, I've stated many times and will again - I'd rather push very hard for Prince/Pujols and pass on Darvish. But if we miss on Prince/Pujols, the answer is not to bring Aramis back at the price he'll likely demand. I actually agree with all this. I don't trust Ramirez. I don't trust Darvish. If the Cubs are going to spend on one of them, I think I'd rather gamble on the youth and the pitching. However, I think it's a very big gamble and people are being too cavalier about that. I, frankly, wouldn't gamble on either (at the money/years I'm expecting each to receive).
  6. Exile on Waveland
    Well, the equation is really Aramis v.s. 2 scrub players + the player(s) you spend his $15 million on You may gain more wins playing 2 scrubs at 3B and signing CJ Wilson versus resigning Aram and having Cashner start. Yes, I understand that. I explicitly said I'm not really in favor of re-signing Ramirez (therefore at least implying because the money would be more valuably spent elsewhere). What I disagree with, and I believe this was quite clear, is the notion that losing Ramirez won't damage third-base production.
  7. Exile on Waveland
    So...its better to risk twice as much money over probably 3 or 4 more years on this guy? Scouting reports on Matsuzaka were glowing, too. Yeah, that's the exact same sort of thing we all heard about Matsuzaka. Don't worry about the transition with this Japanese pitcher. He'll be fine; he's different.
  8. Exile on Waveland
    While I don't really think the Cubs should sign Ramirez -- I'd very reluctant to sign him to more than two years as I don't think he's going to age well at all -- I am very uncomfortable with the logic that a team can replace a good player with two average-ish players and be little worse for wear. I'm a numbers guy, too, but that seems like computer voodoo that won't actually work in real life; it seems the sort of thing that leads one to never pay actual good players because "eh, we'll just replace them with (insert scrub) and (insert scrub) because they're only worth one less WAR." This is especially true on a team with very few good offensive players. I'm not even totally against replacing Ramirez with in-house options this year -- it may be the only choice -- but I can't fool myself into believing it won't hurt. The offense without Ramirez and without Pujols or Fielders would suck. And hard. Though I do disagree with USSoccer on one point, if the Cubs don't sign Pujols/Fielder, I see no reason they must re-sign Ramirez. Because they'd stink regardless. The Cubs just tried that song and dance; the results next year won't be better (likely worse, because Ramirez will likely be worse).
  9. Exile on Waveland
    Now we just need Gary Harris to Purdue. =D> I think I'll pass on that . . . though I'd much rather see him at Purdue than Kentucky. If we land Anthony Parker I don't care who you guys get. Eh, I'm not holding my breath. I'd love to have Harris, obviously, but I really doubt he ends up at IU.
  10. Exile on Waveland
    Now we just need Gary Harris to Purdue. =D> I think I'll pass on that . . . though I'd much rather see him at Purdue than Kentucky.
  11. Exile on Waveland
    McGary to Michigan has been the scuttlebutt for at least a few weeks now. That's not surprising. Nice recruit, obviously.
  12. Exile on Waveland
    The Predators are always annoying; I'll give them that.
  13. Exile on Waveland
    This is sad . . . but I'm still kind of expecting him back. I'd be pretty reluctant to give him three years though. And I say that as a huge fan (after Wood, my favorite contemporary Cub).
  14. Exile on Waveland
    Me neither. Nor would that involve much contemplation.
  15. Exile on Waveland
    I'd be shocked if the Rams have the second pick in the draft. Miami and Indy are pretty clearly worse and St. Louis still has all its games against the NFC West remaining. (And this just isn't merely a reaction to this game; which I suspect the Rams will still lose.)
  16. Exile on Waveland
    Well, evidently I'm the most optimistic person on the board regarding Illinois. They have the third most talented roster in the league. I think they finish top-4. I can understand the pessimism after last year; but I'd be pretty surprised by 8-10. (I'm also not nearly as high on Wisconsin or Michigan as most everyone seems to be.)
  17. Exile on Waveland
    Thanks. Good analysis and date. However, the conclusion -- "Either way, it is clear that his best days are behind him" -- is, well, speculative at best. Sorry, that's not "clear"; it may be likely, it may be supported by the evidence. But it's not "clear." Unless fangraphs has also developed the ability to see the future. Not that my complaint defeats the overall thesis, it does no such thing, but that is some poor (arrogant?) word usage.
  18. Exile on Waveland
    I'm actually admiring the updated google analytics that give me a real-time view of page views as they're happening. Extremely cool. So I was refreshing the thread when I saw that post. There's also currently 41 other st louis fans browsing the thread right now. That makes sense. There's no reason for them to be out at a bar celebrating or anything... I hope if we ever win it all, none of us end up on anyone else's board. I'm not even sure I'd be on this board (at least immediately). My progression would be like: win? ---> WIIIINNN!! ---> bar ---> shots ---> ? ---> hopefully still alive ---> then probably NSBB ---> then NSBB backup board.
  19. Exile on Waveland
    Poo.
  20. Exile on Waveland
    I wouldn't have to think about it.
  21. Exile on Waveland
    Lance Berkman with an infield hit. ahahah "A slider just low" -- as the strike zone chart clearly showed a strike.
  22. Exile on Waveland
    This Cardinal team is way better than the last version to win the World Series. Oh, completely agreed. I'm simply referring to the fashion with which they've done it. Yeah. My post wasn't meant as a "correction"; more as an exasperated agreement. That probably wasn't clear though.
  23. Exile on Waveland
    This Cardinal team is way better than the last version to win the World Series. That's not saying very much considering the last Cardinals team to win the World Series was the worst ever. Well, yeah.
  24. Exile on Waveland
    This Cardinal team is way better than the last version to win the World Series.
  25. Exile on Waveland
    Oh, nice going. Walk the dude hitting in front of Pujols. Excellent.
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