No its not that crazy. I'm not sure they actually do that, but it wouldn't surprise me in the least considering the somewhat strong play, and the weak schedule. Plus you factor in Luck probably improving as the season progresses. Looking at the AFC, the teams that I think have no chance at the playoffs are Cleveland, Kansas City, Tennessee and Jacksonville. That leaves 9 teams to fight for 3 spots (assuming NE, BAL, HOU are locks). Those 9 teams are SD (3-2), CIN (3-2), PIT (2-2), IND (2-2), NYJ (2-3), BUF (2-3), MIA (2-3), DEN (2-3) and OAK (1-3). What a pack of mediocre to bad teams. I guess with a gun to my head I'd go SD (west), DEN and PIT. And the thing is, I don't like any of those 3 teams that much...they just aren't that good. It might not be crazy, but I'm still not expecting any more than five or six wins from the Colts. They lost at home to one of the worst teams in the NFL (Jacksonville). They've only played one road game and were dominated (though against a good team). Sure, they beat Green Bay but that was an emotional aberration, in my opinion, from Pagano's absence (don't think that can really be carried over week to week). The schedue isn't exactly murderer's row though, that's for sure. I wasn't surprised by the Jacksonville loss. The Colts still have in many parts the same defensive personnel that Jacksonville has run over for years, which is what has led to the endless number of close games with them. I'm not projecting 9. I'd guess 7 right now (2-3 against the rest of the division, 2-2 against the AFC East, 1-1 against Cleveland/Kansas City, 0-1 against Detroit). I could see 6 (with only 1 win against the East being the most likely scenario) but I don't think 5 is particularly likely at this point. There are too many teams left on the schedule who are on or maybe even below the Colts level to have a good chance of going 3-9 the rest of the way. They only have 3 likely playoff teams left on the schedule at this point. Looking at the schedule, you're right, 3-9 does some rather overly pessimistic. So I'll say no more than six or seven. The Jacksonville game perhaps wouldn't bother me as much as if it was solely due to Jones-Drew running roughshod. Sure, Jones-Drew ran for 177 yards, but the Colts ran for 124 themselves and actually won the time of possession battle (32:24-27:36). The game was lost by allowing an 80-yard game-winning pass from Blaine Gabbert with forty-five seconds left . . . yeesh. Even worse, those late-game defensive breakdowns have become de rigueur , occuring in all three competitive games the Colts have played. The defense allowed two touchdowns in the final five minutes against Minnesota (allowing them to tie the score at 20-20), and allowed Green Bay to move into field goal range in just thirty-two seconds. Those breakdowns have already cost the Colts one winnable game; it's likely to cost them more. As an aside, remember when Robert Mathis was an old dog trying to learn new tricks or whatever? Turns out, the tricks are the same: five sacks and a forced fumble in four games. (Hope his knee is fine.)