Exile on Waveland
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Everything posted by Exile on Waveland
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If you're looking for hard-hitting match-up analysis, I don't have it. I've watched a bit of both teams, but not much at all. So, this is a guess. I'm taking Kent State. Lon Kruger's pretty much doing it with smoke and mirrors this year. UNLV lost four starters from last year's team, then lost two big guys as transfers and a backup guard to a DUI. (Plus, Beas Hamga was ruled ineligible.) Kruger's a very good coach, and for the Rebels to be in the dance as an 8-seed is a testament to that. That, and I've liked Kent State a lot when I watched them.
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I like Wisconsin, but don't think they have the best chance to beat Kansas in that region at all -- it has to be Georgetown. I can't see Wisconsin beating Georgetown. I understand it's not that simple, as he's high on Davidson which is partly why Georgetown has less a chance to advance. I think this also lends credence to Indiana fan's complaints that they're under-seeded. I like Butler's chances against Tennessee; regardless, I like Louisville-UNC in the elite eight. Georgetown could definitely beat us, but Wiscy has the grind it out system that causes problems for KU, too. I think UNC bows out to Louisville. I really want to pick Louisville over UNC, which was my initial thought. I have been growing more reluctant -- OK, chicken -- as the game will be played in Charlotte. I'm generally not conservative in brackets, so I'll probably settle on Louisville. I would be very surprised if Wisconsin beats Georgetown, much less Kansas. That said, I love Bo Ryan and the way they play. I'll also be rooting for them.
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I like Wisconsin, but don't think they have the best chance to beat Kansas in that region at all -- it has to be Georgetown. I can't see Wisconsin beating Georgetown. I understand it's not that simple, as he's high on Davidson which is partly why Georgetown has less a chance to advance. I think this also lends credence to Indiana fan's complaints that they're under-seeded. I like Butler's chances against Tennessee; regardless, I like Louisville-UNC in the elite eight.
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Agreed. Don't expand, go back to 64.
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i mean, maybe they got screwed, but they'd lose in the first or second round anyway. that's why i really don't feel too bad for bubble teams that don't get in. That brings up a good point, has a 11, 12 or 13 seed at large team ever made the Final Four? Off the top of my head, both LSU (1986) and George Mason (2006) made the Final Four as 11-seeds. but George Mason wasn't an at large, right? Yes, they were. UNC-Wilmington won the CAA conference championship that year.
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i mean, maybe they got screwed, but they'd lose in the first or second round anyway. that's why i really don't feel too bad for bubble teams that don't get in. That brings up a good point, has a 11, 12 or 13 seed at large team ever made the Final Four? Off the top of my head, both LSU (1986) and George Mason (2006) made the Final Four as 11-seeds.
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Zona is a nightmare. They either get beat right away or go crazy and get to UCLA. I always hate having to deal with them in the tourny bracket I do. Im thinking if I take Zona in the first game it'll be to the elite eight, WVU to the Sweet 16. I just don't have any confidence in Duke right now. I plan on having the West Virginia-Arizona winner take down Duke. I'm not impressed at all with Duke right now. The trouble is, I don't know who to take in the 7-10 game. I'm definitely leaning towards West Virginia, though.
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I'm unsure if I'm going to pick UConn or Drake in the Sweet 16; however, if it's UConn they present significant match-up problems for UCLA. I still UCLA would win -- I'm taking them to win the title -- but UConn's size could be a headache for Love, et al.
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I've seen a ton of Arkansas games this year. They are as talented as anyone around, but they have a new coach and new system this year and are just now starting to figure it out. They have a DEEP bench, and especially talented inside. Hill at 7' is Mr. Defense, second in blocked shots in SEC history behind Shaq. Townes is almost automatic in the post. Thomas has a double/double in him at any time. Someone on their frontcourt will get you around 20pts/10rb every game, but their leading rebounder is 6' 1" Beverly at guard, who is the heart of the team. Their point guard, Ervin, has been suspect all year. That said, if Weems at SF looks to be hot early, look out. When he is on he is unstoppable, when he is off he just looks bored out there. Their inside game is always there, but they go as their guards go. Hope that helps a little. They sound like a team that could beat a lot of good teams and then lose to a bad one. Hopefully they lose to a bad one Friday evening.
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I'm glad he quickly dismissed Virginia Tech. I don't think they should have even been one of the final four teams out. Just because they play in the ACC, came close to UNC and their coach ranted doesn't make them deserving.
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I doubt many would disagree that Indiana isn't very good at all right now. I'm not sure how many teams in the tournament they could actually beat at this point. My bracket will have North Carolina beating Arkansas. However, that's arbitrary and the resume is what should matter. Also, while Indiana was 3-3 over their final six, compare that to: Vanderbilt (2-3), Michigan State (3-3), Marquette (3-3), Washington State (3-3), Oklahoma (4-3), Miami (FL) (3-3), and Purdue (3-3). Seems Indiana wasn't the only team to struggle late; though they were the only one to lose their coach.
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I think I'm going to take Butler over Tennessee and very possibly West Virginia (maybe Arizona?) over Duke. I'm debating Siena over Vandy, but only for one win.
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Oh, I'm certain that is why IU dropped. However, I think it's ridiculous such a small sample size has such an affect. Second, one loss was on the road against a top-20 (yes, it was a beat-down), one was without a key starter (NCAA is supposed to factor this in), and the last was on a miracle shot. Overall, IU has a better resume than quite a few teams ahead of them -- besides that, an 8-seed is a complete death knell.
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Have fun, NCAA tournament's are great to attend. The opening rounds are especially fun as you get to see an eclectic mix of teams and generally some upsets/crazy stuff. Arkansas is big and athletic and a pretty tough match-up for IU. I'll probably pick Arkansas; regardless, UNC is far better than either team.
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Yeah, UNC got thoroughly screwed. There are basically two 1 seeds and a near-two seed (Louisville) in their region. Easily the toughest of the four. UNC fans are also upset at IU being the #8. Now, as an IU fan, I think the Hoosiers will lose to Arkansas. Still, IU should've been higher and having to (potentially) face two Wooden Award candidates in the second round isn't much of a reward for the #1 overall team. UNC is going to run you off the court. I doubt that matchup occurs; like I said, I think Arkansas beats IU. If IU does win, UNC will crush them, I agree. You guys got hosed. Oklahoma is seeded higher than you. In what world have they done more to warrant a higher seed than you? I am really upset about the 8-seed. I'm incredulous that Oklahoma, Miami (FL), Gonzaga, etc., got better seeds than IU. Oregon, at 18-13, got basically the same seed at #9. I'd rather be a 12-seed than stuck in the 8-9 game. Now, I also think all my complaining is irrelevant as IU is playing terrible ball and wasn't likely to do much anyway. Still, I think an 8-seed is unfair.
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Yeah, UNC got thoroughly screwed. There are basically two 1 seeds and a near-two seed (Louisville) in their region. Easily the toughest of the four. UNC fans are also upset at IU being the #8. Now, as an IU fan, I think the Hoosiers will lose to Arkansas. Still, IU should've been higher and having to (potentially) face two Wooden Award candidates in the second round isn't much of a reward for the #1 overall team. UNC is going to run you off the court. I doubt that matchup occurs; like I said, I think Arkansas beats IU. If IU does win, UNC will crush them, I agree.
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Taken into consideration...but like I said, Tennessee played a brutal non-con schedule and ended up with a significantly better strength of schedule (#1 for UT vs #50 for Kansas). That should outweigh a slight difference inside the conferences. If Tennessee wanted No. 1 seed, they should have won the SEC tournament. Their resume was similar to that of Kansas in the regular season but they flamed out in the SEC semis. Kansas won the tournament. Tennessee's regular season resume is actually much better. And the fact that two wins by Kansas canceled out a much better regular season by Tennessee is ridiculous. I'm on your side here. However, I might take Butler over Tennessee. If Butler doesn't turn the ball over against the press, they can dictate tempo and turn the game into a grinder. It's this type of game that could cause Tennessee to take ill-advised quick 3's while Butler grinds away. And away. And away.
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Yeah, UNC got thoroughly screwed. There are basically two 1 seeds and a near-two seed (Louisville) in their region. Easily the toughest of the four. UNC fans are also upset at IU being the #8. Now, as an IU fan, I think the Hoosiers will lose to Arkansas. Still, IU should've been higher and having to (potentially) face two Wooden Award candidates in the second round isn't much of a reward for the #1 overall team.
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Agreed. I don't really know why they're terribly viable, besides 1) 9-7 in the ACC; 2) nearly beating UNC (so?); and 3) their coached ranted that they should be in. Those aren't very convincing reasons.
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And shouldn't be used to determine seeding between teams when there is very strong evidence that one has accomplished more than another. That was my point; not sure if I did a good job expressing that. Who cares what I think?
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Tennessee rightly got seeded second. Is a two-win difference in the conference tournament enough to nullify a much better regular season? If it is, it shouldn't be. Who do you knock down then? Kansas Kansas finished tied for the Big 12 title and Tennessee won theirs but Kansas showed up and won the Big 12 tournament. That's your difference. And the Big 12 was a better league in the SEC this year. Kansas over Tennessee for a No. 1 is a no doubter. Like you said, Tennessee won the SEC outright. The Vols also had a better RPI than Kansas (2 v 5), Tennessee had 3 wins over teams in the top 12 in the RPI (Memphis - higher ranked than Kansas - Vandy and Xavier) while Kansas had 1 (Texas today) and Tennessee has a SOS of 1 and Kansas' is 50. Far from a no-doubter and, in my opinion, ridiculous. Kansas had a better weekend. Tennessee had a better season. Kansas looks like a better team IMO. Yes. If I had to handicap a head-to-head matchup, I'd chose Kansas. But that's completely arbitrary.
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Tennessee rightly got seeded second. Is a two-win difference in the conference tournament enough to nullify a much better regular season? If it is, it shouldn't be. Who do you knock down then? Kansas Kansas finished tied for the Big 12 title and Tennessee won theirs but Kansas showed up and won the Big 12 tournament. That's your difference. And the Big 12 was a better league in the SEC this year. Kansas over Tennessee for a No. 1 is a no doubter. Like you said, Tennessee won the SEC outright. The Vols also had a better RPI than Kansas (2 v 5), Tennessee had 3 wins over teams in the top 12 in the RPI (Memphis - higher ranked than Kansas - Vandy and Xavier) while Kansas had 1 (Texas today) and Tennessee has a SOS of 1 and Kansas' is 50. Far from a no-doubter and, in my opinion, ridiculous. Kansas had a better weekend. Tennessee had a better season. Exactly my point. Two games at the end of the year should not completely erase being a better team the entire season. It's silly. The conference tournaments have become way, way too important. Tennessee's overall profile is better than Kansas's.
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Tennessee rightly got seeded second. Is a two-win difference in the conference tournament enough to nullify a much better regular season? If it is, it shouldn't be. Who do you knock down then? Kansas Kansas finished tied for the Big 12 title and Tennessee won theirs but Kansas showed up and won the Big 12 tournament. That's your difference. And the Big 12 was a better league in the SEC this year. Kansas over Tennessee for a No. 1 is a no doubter. Like you said, Tennessee won the SEC outright. The Vols also had a better RPI than Kansas (2 v 5), Tennessee had 3 wins over teams in the top 12 in the RPI (Memphis - higher ranked than Kansas - Vandy and Xavier) while Kansas had 1 (Texas today) and Tennessee has a SOS of 1 and Kansas' is 50. Far from a no-doubter and, in my opinion, ridiculous. Kansas had a better weekend. Tennessee had a better season.
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2008 NCAA Tournament - Mock Selection/Discussion
Exile on Waveland replied to bukie's topic in Other Sports
I like both those teams (full disclosure), but I think Butler and Indiana's seeds are unfairly low. -
Georgia is 17-16, unless you meant losing record pre-conference tournament. I was getting ready to post and reclarify what I meant, as Georgia no longer has a losing record, though they are 16-16 (one of UGA's wins is against Augusta, a non-DI program).