davell

To play devil's advocate here(and I really want Cashner to have a shot at starting) but the fact the Cubs have Archer, McNutt, Jay Jackson, Dolis, Carpenter, and Coleman all at least in the mix within the next 2 seasons(and it's doubtful we'll ever have more than 1 or 2 rookies in the rotation if you ask me), isn't it possible that maybe they're just figuring he's the best equipped for the pen out of those guys and maybe one or two of those guys have the talent to be better than Cashner as a starter and are just giving him a head start on his future role at the back of the pen?

As for the rest of my list, it'll be interesting to see what Kirk can do in full season ball. He probably has more upside than Raley or Rusin. I like Castillo, but definitely think Chirinos has passed him. That said, no idea who'll make the team next year as Hill seems to be our backup again most likely for some damn reason. Mateo has some great stuff at times and looks awful at others, time is running short on him. I like what Greathouse did, but like Rusin last year, I want to see him in full season ball for a little while to see how his stuff plays out. I probably would have had Marquez Smith higher on my list, but I have been polluted by the fact that the Cubs may not even roster him. Struck is a guy I definitely can see other's putting in their top 30's. I want to see his K rate go up a little bit, but I think he does offer some solid upside and I almost interchanged him with Rhee. Alcantara has some tools, including power, from the middle IF, he needs to learn patience and to field the ball, before I think he'll get any real pub. But, he's a guy that could make a huge jump. Beliveau screams LOOGY, just needs work on his control. Cales struggled at the end of the year or I'd have had him higher than this. Maybe hitters have caught up to his stuff? Jung had a very impressive stretch last year before he got hurt, I'll be curious to see if it's something he can build on. I figure Rhoderick has the ability to make a huge jump, ala Kurcz, moving quickly. Just needs some control. Whitenack looked great at Daytona, lets see if it was flukish or not. Chen is a smallish quick MI, who's probably going to have it rough with so many guys ahead of him. Maine looked solid in the majors at the end of the year. Gibbs is great defensively, but hasn't hit close to his weight yet. Watkins has upside, but I think expectations were too high going into this year. Clevenger is a typical BU C prospect that all organizations have. Campana will never get a shot in Chicago, but could be a Podsednik type if given the chance somewhere. Or he could be the worst hitter ever. Basically, just a guy, as far as I'm concerned. I liked what Smit did this past season, so it'll be interesting to see if that nets him a spot on the 40 man.. I'm putting Thomas on here because he throws gas. The jury is out obviously on him, but early returns look like this conversion was much needed. Canzler is a righty version of Hoffpauir most likely, but is young enough to prove that theory wrong. Na didn't impress, as far as I was concerned. His speed, supposedly the fastest in the organization, didn't play up in games. Beeler is another slight overslot, with a big body, that impressed Phil in his short appearances so far. Arcila seems like the DSL guy with the most upside. Contreras was the one that got the biggest bonus supposedly, although he may already be struggling to find a position. Hartman is another HS arm that showed some flashes at times near the end of the year. Amaya hit well enough at instructs and during the DSL season, that he is someone to be watched. Morla was a guy that probably needed to be stretched out, but we have too much depth for that and I think if he is ever going to make it, it's going to have to be out of the pen. Zapata is a bad body guy that appears to have some power and speed, so he'll be fun to track. Spencer is well on his way to becoming Jake Fox version 2.0. Yao Lin Wang looked good in Arizona, not so much in Boise. Something tells me that he's a reliever longterm as well. Hernandez was the DSL guy I was most interested in, but finding out he's a slap hitter may have changed that for me. LePage had a very solid debut, but he's not someone that looks to be all that intriguing longterm. Geiger could be, he just needs to add some power it seems and get game experience. And to stay healthy. Burruel is a guy with power supposedly, but he hasn't shown any yet. If he does, he could turn into a very solid prospect. Dong Yub Kim was a guy I was very excited to see, power and speed combo, but 2 seasons of injuries have taken the excitement away. Hopefully, he can stay healthy and can show us something. I put Bibens-Dirkx on here strictly because he had an excellent year in AA. I don't think he's got the stuff to make it and he's probably just our next Mathis-in waiting, but he did pitch well anyway. Daniel Sanchez is a huge SS, that probably won't stick there, but he's definitely someone to keep an eye on next year in the DSL. Frank Batista had some very solid outings near the end of the year and while he's probably not going to be thought of too highly, he is a guy that could move up this list quite a bit anyway. Finally, Aaron Shafer is stuck as a reliever at this point. He gained some velo by moving there and it's probably his only chance at making it to the bigs.

Some comments about my list. I think Brett Jackson can turn into a Granderson type of player and feel more comfortbale with his K's than I do with Archer's control issues, to put him first on my list. Although I do think Archer has ace caliber upside. I fully expect to see both of them by mid season, possibly much before that. McNutt seems like a very solid prospect, no real holes to speak of right now, so he's an easy 3 for me. I like Lee alot, but I honestly think he suffered somewhat from Castro's season last year, as far as expectations go. I'm not sure he'll ever pull Castro off of SS, but I could see him at 2B or even CF possibly for us by 2013. Vitters just needs to be left alone for a year in AA and see what he can do over a full season. I don't doubt his ability, I doubt how hard he's working. Maybe relying too much on his natural ability to get by, to this point. If he lays off some pitches, he could have a Moustakas type-uptick in his prospect status over the next season. Jay Jackson is probably going to be further down on most lists than mine, but I think he'll bounce back nicely. I like that his control improved this season and think he's a 3/4 type starter with the downside of a setup guy. Carpenter surprised me this year actually. I kind of thought he'd struggle or get hurt, but he had a solid season for the most part. He has the build to be a starter for sure, but reports I heard saying he doesn't have lots of movement were troublesome, so I picture him as a middle reliever/set up guy longterm at this point. But, I think we'll see Jackson and Carpenter by the end of 2011. Golden screams tools loudly and has great makeup as well, so I have him really high here. If we have anyone who can make a huge jump as far as hitters go, he seems the most likely to me. Rusin doesn't appear to be more than a 4/5 starter, but he's a lefty and has great control, so I think there's real value in that. I have Lopez 10th, because of his age, his heat, and the fact that he's got the ability to have a plus curve and change as well. If we have another Archer type step forward from any pitcher in 2011, my guess is it's him. Ha needs to learn some plate discipline obviously, but he is another very athletic type who surprised bigtime at Peoria this year. It'll be interesting to see what he can do in Daytona next year. Chirinos has put himself in a spot where he deserves a shot. No idea if he'll capitalize on it, but he deserves one anyway. Guyer appears to be our future 4th OFer, as he's got great speed and some power as well. Won't shock me to see him wind up better longterm than Colvin actually. I'll be lower on Lake than most(if not all) here, but I want to see more than one hot month before I start thinking he's turned the corner. He could benefit from another year at Daytona, if you ask me. But, I expect him to be moved up. I'm scared of Simpson, because of the mono and also because I'm not convinced this wasn't just a pick to save money. On top of that, with his smallish stature, if he struggles somewhat, I could see it possibly affecting us, in our decision making, if Sonny Gray is on the board next year when we pick. I like LeMahieu more than Flaherty at this point, as he's proven he can hit, he just needs to translate it into a little power now and with his build, I definitely can see that happening. Longterm utility guy in the DeRosa mold is what I'm hoping for out of him. Kim throws strikes and the early reports from Phil were solid enough to be excited about him. Dolis looks to me like a sure bet to eventually make the move to the pen. I could see him as a future setup type possibly. Szczur had one comp I saw as Carl Crawfordesque, which really impressed me. If he can hit for a little pop, he could move quickly up this list, but I think it's 50-50 whether or not he'll even be in baseball a year from now. Cabrera is way too inconsistent to make me put him any higher, but he's also too talented not to put fairly high anyway. It's not like he's old either, but I'd like to see him maintain more consistency next year in AA. If Phil calls Reed's stuff "electric" I'm certainly going to pay attention to him. He obviously looked good in Arizona and at Instructs. With his build, we may have a very nice sleeper with him. I expect he'll add some velo over the next season or two with more coaching. Raley isn't a sexy player, but he gets it done and got better as the season went on. Not sure what his upside is, but I think he's the type of player who will do everything he can to reach it. Ben Wells is like Reed to me: Very excited to see what he can develop into. Put him slightly lower, because of the possible weight issue down the line. We couldn't have asked more of Kurcz, he did everything he possibly could wherever we've put him, to date. Has some questions about his smallish size, but I think he'll move very quickly and expect to see him in AA this upcoming year, at some point. Barney will have a long major league career. I guess he's gotta be on this list, even though I think of him as Theriot without the speed and slightly better glove. I like Cerda alot and think he's got decent pop for a small guy. I could see him becoming a better version of Fontenot. Wallach disappointed me once we traded for him, but he's still learning to pitch and has the frame to become an innings eater. Like his K rate right now, hopefully he can continue to do that at higher levels. I hate putting Antigua this low, because I thought that he could be a top 10 guy last year at this time(after this season, not then) but his smallish size could wind up hurting him some and I've got to wonder if he can hold on and be a starter longterm. Flaherty needs to get moving quickly at this point. I'm not sure what to think of him, but he's not exactly setting the world on fire at his age in High A ball, so he really needs to bounce back next season. I put Rhee at 30, strictly thinking that he'll throw the splitter again next season. If not, he may fall off of our radar very soon. But, he did have a solid 2/3 of a season, before falling off completely the last 1/3. For now, I'll keep thinking it was because of it being his 1st season back from TJS.

Here's my list. Comments on them to follow later. Don't have much time to type right now. These lists should definitely raise some debates though, because I think outside of the top 7 or so, we're all going to vary quite a bit. 1 B JACKSON 2 ARCHER 3 MCNUTT 4 LEE 5 VITTERS 6 J JACKSON 7 CARPENTER 8 GOLDEN 9 RUSIN 10 LOPEZ 11 HA 12 CHIRINOS 13 GUYER 14 LAKE 15 SIMPSON 16 LEMAHIEU 17 YJ KIM 18 DOLIS 19 SZCZUR 20 CABRERA 21 REED 22 RALEY 23 WELLS 24 KURCZ 25 BARNEY 26 CERDA 27 WALLACH 28 ANTIGUA 29 FLAHERTY 30 RHEE 31 KIRK 32 CASTILLO 33 MATEO 34 GREATHOUSE 35 STRUCK 36 ALCANTARA 37 BELIVEAU 38 CALES 39 M SMITH 40 JUNG 41 RHODERICK 42 WHITENACK 43 CHEN 44 MAINE 45 GIBBS 46 WATKINS 47 CLEVENGER 48 CAMPANA 49 SMIT 50 C THOMAS 51 CANZLER 52 NA 53 BEELER 54 ARCILA 55 CONTRERAS 56 HARTMAN 57 AMAYA 58 MORLA 59 ZAPATA 60 SPENCER 61 Y WANG 62 HERNANDEZ 63 LEPAGE 64 GEIGER 65 BURRUEL 66 DY KIM 67 BIBENS DIRKX 68 D SANCHEZ 69 BATISTA 70 SHAFER

Just out of curiosity, what do you think Quade did to garner us that record that Lou did not? Yeah, it's basically what KingsCubFan posted. When I read that, it made me think Lou had totally mailed it in and that the players had actually quit on him. I usually don't believe in those type of things, but I think it does possibly matter in this case.

1. Brett Jackson 1a. Archer 1b. Vitters 1c. Lee 2. I'm going to skip this one 3. Cerda, Struck and Ha. I also agree with the previous poster on Batista being a sleeper. Though a 5'8 pitcher is never going to get a ton of pub or have a lot of expectations. Nate, did you mean that Ha, Struck, and Cerda are overrated or underrated?

A potential positive from this hiring is that we probably saved quite a bit of money in going from Lou making over 3 mill a year to Quade. I went on Cots to look at what some manager's salaries were, and I didn't find a lot of info, but John Russell makes around 800,000 to manage the Pirates and Joe Maddon started out making 550,000 to manage the Rays. Bud Black also supposedly started out making 900,000 or less to manage the Pads. Gardenhire only makes 1.25 or so to manage the Twins as well. Granted, these are all small market teams, but I doubt Quade would be making much more than a mill a year based on these numbers anyway. If that means more money for the rest of baseball operations(minor league system) an extra 2 mill a year could go pretty far, in that respect.

It's obvious now that the Cubs have hired Quade that either all the chatter about Girardi being the top choice was wrong or that he was the top choice but made it clear to the Cubs that he wasn't interested. Got it now? But why was the timing curious? It's been reported it could happen soon. Quade has made a ton of sense from the beginning and a lot of people more or less assumed he was getting the job. What was it about the timing that makes you think it's curious? It would be curious timing to name Joe Girardi manager right now. It's not curious to name Mike Quade manager right now. You must be from Oklahoma, so I will type slowly. There were a lot of indications in the media that Girardi was the top choice and that the Cubs wanted to wait to talk to him before going with Quade. Since the Yankees are still playing, it was curious timing to seemingly give up on Girardi before even having the chance to talk to him. Even if that WAS the case though, Girardi could have very easily let it be known through various channels of communication that he didn't have an interest in the Cubs job at this time. In the end, the Cubs picked their manager right about the time that they said they were wanting to do so. In my opinion, it would have been curious timing if they had WAITED until after the Yanks were done playing and THEN named Quade manager at that point.

My guess is Wedge or Melvin would have been our next manager if Lou had stayed. Which I wouldn't have wanted, but I also think that if Lou HAD stayed, we'd have finished out 13-24 or so, instead of 24-13. netting us a much better draft pick. Mainly because Lou simply didn't care at all near the end. One of the few times I actually think a manager COULD have made a difference in win-loss record substantially.

Winner. The whole embracing the culture thing is mind numbingly stupid. The next time we're in the playoffs and in a tight spot, what does "embracing the culture even mean?" Does it mean that our manager comes out to the mound and tells Z "hey, this is where we're supposed to lose, so make a good pitch here" I mean, come on, finding a guy who "understands" our losing tradition is probably the last thing we needed to be looking for. It appears to me this whole concept was brought on by a few of Lou's comments at the end of his dead-ass final days about "cubbie occurences and not realizing how "tough" this job was going to be.

Maybe it's because of the perception of Maddux being the smartest player of his era? Levine acted like no one would have had an issue with Maddux being named manager and also insinuated that Maddux does eventually want to manage, just not right now. I have to admit, I'd have fallen into that category honestly. If Maddux would have been named manager, I wouldn't have been upset one bit. Can't quantify it with a reason either.

Whether Sandberg is ever our manager or not, this was the best possible scenario for him, in all likelihood. I seriously doubt we're going to set the world on fire over these next 2 seasons, so instead of the fans turning against Sandberg, we'll see them turn against Quade instead. And in 2(or possibly 3) seasons, when most of the bad contracts we have are off the books, we've got some cheap, young, productive talent playing in the majors, and have plenty of money to throw around to free agents again, we'll have a new manager again as well. Whether it's Sandberg or Girardi, they'll most likely be inheriting a much more attractive situation then, than what they would be now. Mike Quade(who i'm glad got it over those 2 anyway)=stopgap

Why? I wasn't enthralled with any of our choices, but he's cheaper than Girardi and it's not Sandberg or Wedge. I'm kind of relieved it is him actually.

Why would Girardi want to come here honestly RIGHT NOW? I totally understand that at some point in his managerial career, he'd want to manage the Cubs. But, why would he leave the Yankees at this point to come here? While our division is weak, we're certainly not going to be considered a "legit" contender next season and probably not the one after that either, unless we make some bigtime changes(which we probably don't have the money to do) I don't even know that I'd want Girardi over Quade at this point honestly. He's going to cost a ton more(which is money we need to spend elsewhere). In the end, my guess is Hendry is overthinking the whole Girardi thing and he's not leaving New York right now. Which basically devalues the hiring of Quade or Sandberg, because you're telling the fans that you're getting our second choice, after waiting on Girardi to turn us down......

I'm actually thinking I read somewhere that close to 80 percent of pro athletes wind up broke within 5 years of being out of their sport. That seems high to me, but I guess it's possible.

I've gone back and forth on Greinke honestly. The anxiety issues he has and playing in a major market like Chicago, makes me think twice on giving up a lot for him.

I'd be shocked if we can get him without sending at least one of Brett Jackson, Archer, or McNutt. And I'd venture it'd probably also cost us Cashner as well.

If I remember correctly, a good part of it had to do with age, based on what Vitters did in Daytona at 20, versus what Jackson did there at 21. Could be wrong though.

I'm also still going with Brett Jackson as my 1, even though the ceilings of Archer and McNutt are most likely higher. I also agree that someone like Carpenter kind of gets lost in the shuffle at times. That said, I think I read that his fastball lacks movement and that he's probably going to wind up in the back half of the pen. Still, to me anyway, if he becomes a solid setup guy, I'm perfectly happy. Toonster basically hit on most of the same guys I would have. Even Lopez, who I will be one of the guys over rating him. :D I don't think Matt Carda gets enough pub and that until now, Logan Watkins was getting too much. To me, based off of one GREAT month, Junior Lake is getting at least a tad too much pub around here(that said, it's not like I won't have him pretty high on my end of the year list as well). Jeff Beliveau is just going to be a LOOGY, but he barely gets mentioned here ever. Finally, I kind of wonder if Chirinos isn't snubbed a little bit around here. I know he's grandpa-ish age-wise, but he's been absolutely phenomenal and maybe he's actually turned himself into a real prospect.

I agree completely.

Eric Wedge to the Mariners, per Heyman on Twitter.

Deferred salaries are accrued to their original year, it's just a liability on the balance sheet. Agreed on arby amounts, though Gorz is first year arb eligible so the increase won't be significant. I'll adjust. It's actually Gorz's 2nd year of arb. He made 800,000 last year. But, as you said, it's not going to go up a ton. But, I could see him getting 1.5 or so anyway.

Dempster had deferred 1.5 mill of last year's salary to this year, so he's making 15 mill this season, not counting his pro-rated bonus. I feel pretty safe in saying that if Theriot made 2.6 his first year of arb, Soto will be making 3 at a minimum. I also think Gorz and Marshall could be making more than what you listed for them, maybe around a mill or so combined. AZPhil has a pretty accurate assessment of Cubs payroll over at thecubreporter. We're basically sitting around 119 after we add in the entire 40 man with our current roster.

If I'm Angelo(or preferrably someone else) I'd try to draft offensive line help in both the 1st and 2nd rounds this year AND go after one free agent starter as well. The fact that the class looks weak doesn't help this cause though, although I definitely agree that there should be a very solid starting guard type waiting for us in round 2. Haven't looked at all at possible free agents next year(assuming there's a season) but it's been making me wonder why we haven't appeared to have inquired on Mankins? In an uncapped year where we're off to a very solid start and the line is clearly the biggest issue we have, it seems like a no-brainer that we'd be interested in him.......

I don't see how it would and I don't see why it would matter. It's not like this minor league system is rolling along like gangbusters. In my opinion, it'd be because Ricketts wouldn't want to come in and see an upheaval this early into his reign. He could think(wrongly, as far as I'm concerned) that the public perception would turn against him and hurt the bottom line profit in the end.