davell

Yeah, I debated on him. But figured a fringe-hit SS with a glove wasn't going to be a guy we were interested in. That said, someone probably pays him decent, so I'll add him.

Araujo snuck up on me. I hadn't noticed how well he did this season.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2015-northwest-league-top-20-prospects/ 2 Ian Happ-OF 3 Eloy Jimenez-OF 11 Donnie Dewees-OF 12 Justin Steele-P 13 Carson Sand-P 16 Oscar De La Cruz-P 19 Pedro Araujo-p

That catch was certifiably insane.

That's why he used Papelbon. He's learning. It's like he just learned to never leave your wingman.

This is a work in progress, but I want to try and make a list of the top Cuban defectors currently. Position Players that ARE currently or will definitely be eligible.... OF Eddy Julio Martinez- CUBS(3 mill) OF Yusnier Diaz- DODGERS(15.5 mill) OF/INF Randy Arozarena(eligible)-1st round talent, top of the order type, 20 years old OF Jonathan Machado(eligible)-very solid talent, top of the order hitter, 16 years old 2B Omar Estevez- DODGERS(6 mill) 1B Yordan Alvarez-(expected eligibility)- power hitter that may be able to stick on a corner OF spot a few years SS Alfredo Rodriguez-REDS (6 mill) SS Diosbel Ariel Morales-(expected eligibility)- another D heavy SS, not in Rodriguez class OF Henry Quintero(expected eligibility) OF Lazarito Armenteros(becomes eligible on February 10th)- Potentially elite upside, 16 years old Currently INELIGIBLE Position Players OF Jorge Ona- 1st round type, possibly best Cuban prospect available, 19 years old Inf Lazaro Alfonzo Inf Miguel Vargas(late defection)- 16 years old, possible elite upside, not much info available. Potential 1st rounder until we see otherwise Eligible position players that are NOT tied to 23 and under rules(all teams can bid) CF Guillermo Heredia(eligible now)- defensive ready CF, bat may not ever be ready, 24 years old 2B Pavel Quesada 3B Luis La O-23 years old, solid all around, profiles as 2nd division starter 2B Jose Fernandez-27 years old, excellent bat, may not stick at 2B, bat plays in majors. Phenomenal discipline OF Yadiel Hernandez Currently eligible or will definitely be top pitchers P Vladimir Gutierrez(eligible now)-19 years old, potential late 1st type value, supposedly has struggled a bit in showcases, 91-92 average velo P Norge Ruiz(not eligible yet though)- 20 years old, 89-93, advanced profile. 1st round talent P Luis Estrada(not eligble yet though) P Carlos Sierra- ASTROS Currently INELIGIBLE top pitchers Cionel Perez-19 years old, short lefty that hits 95, reliever profile, at least a 2nd round talent Ronald Bolanos-20 years old, converted position player,94-96 with control, very solid upside, 2nd round talent Adrian Morejon(Cubs lead)- lefty with top pick overall upside based on SOME reports, safe bet to be back end starter on others Pedro Duran(is either 19 or over 23) Roddy Castello Eligible top pitchers not restricted to 23 and under rules P Yasiel Sierra- DODGERS(6 years, 30 mill) P Jorge Hernandez-25 years old, throws 95 supposedly with little control P Julio Alfredo Martinez Wong-24 year old cagey lefty, throws upper 80s Teams that overspent in 2014-2015 Boston NYY Arizona Tampa Bay LAA Teams over currently THIS IFA period LAD Cubs San Fran KC Toronto(possibly) I just wanted to initially put a list out there. There are certainly more names I've seen. But I don't THINK I've missed any of the potential impact guys. That said, if BA listed anyone else in their article where they gave guys draft rankings, or Kiley or Sanchez has specifically written up an individual(not counting 90MPH throwing RHP Carlos Sierra that Sanchez wrote about, unless Badler has him listed somewhere), please feel free to post them and I'll add them in. Eventually I'll edit thru this enough to put links in and videos, to help us start to gauge these guys more than we currently can. If anyone I've listed belongs in a different eligibility group, please tell me as well. I'm not completely certain on all of them.

Then for some reason, Matt Williams still went to Papelbon in a 4-4 game.....A two run shot later, followed by more stuff, and the Nats lose 12-5. What a [expletive] trainwreck.

Well, if we want Papelbon in the offseason, I'd say he'll be available.

The Angels just had an inning with 3 singles, 2 wild pitches, and a walk.....And scored 1 run.

I think there's a bit of survivorship bias. You remember the Rizzos a lot more than you do the Brett Jacksons. Most 22-year-olds who suck continue to suck. Can't deny that. But that's also a guy that talent-wise was a solid tier underneath guys like Javy and Soler. Granted, there are certainly guys with their talent that have washed out.

This probably flails at analytics(and it's not meant to), but talented young guys make adjustments from gaining experience. I honestly think sometimes we look at guys too harshly at 22-23 years old. While Rizzo's walk rate was excellent when he auditioned in SD, the vast majority of his stats looked horrible. Yes, he's best case, as his stuff jumped incredibly. But Javy and Soler can and likely will continue to improve. At least gradually. The talent there may very well be enough to make it much more than that too. It's obviously easy to find warts on both, but I do think each still has quite a bit of their ceiling that they'll close in on. Whether that happens with us and whether we feel we can wait on it may wind up being a different story. But I think both wind up excellent major leaguers. Soler's D and health being the two largest concerns for me.

On a team like us, where money is a factor, shedding Starlin's deal could very well allow us to do something else impactful we may not be able to do otherwise. That can factor into this conceivably as well.

Here's what I know I want-Javy and Soler start every regular season game till the playoffs. See if they are hot enough to factor in as more than PH in the playoffs.

BUT HE'S A HIGH BABIP GUY!!!!!j/k The FO has to decide if the upgrade in talent we receive for Javy versus what we'd receive for Starlin is more than how they compare those 2 moving forward. It'll be a hotly contested offseason debate for all of us.

While I know it shouldn't play into things, my honest guess is we'd be the last team they trade him to, after Jake.... Maybe, but I could see them having interest in Javy as someone who can play either SS or 3B depending on what they're going to do with Machado. Here's my Javy HOT TAKE - he's sacrificed a most of his power to now have a K/BB ratio that is merely terrible instead of historically awful. Yes, I'm probably taking his short stint in the Majors this year too much into consideration, but his ISO took a pretty big hit in AAA this year compared to last season as well. I'm also assuming Theo would like to trade one of Javy/Starlin and that Javy has more trade value. I will be the leader of the TRADE JAVY bandwagon this offseason, and Gausman is a great target. I can see that, but I don't think the power has been compromised myself. Way too small of a major league audition(it was fine in AAA). I think Starlin is the one who gets moved. We won't get anything earth shattering back, but I think it'll be enough to allow us to move him. His power was respectable in Iowa this year, yes, but it dropped from 2014 to a .200 ISO in the PCL, and for someone who's going to have a K rate hovering around 30% and a below average walk rate, it needs to REALLY good for him to be any kind of impact player. I'm not necessarily saying he'll be bad, I just kind of think he'll be an OK player at best. I think he has to choose between being a guy who strikes out around 30% of the time with OK power (and not many walks), or someone who strikes out 35-40% with really good power. It's a weird situation where I'm confident Starlin will be the better player for 2016, but I'm also pretty confident Javy has a lot more trade value. Trading Javy for something good (if possible) instead of Starlin for something "meh," combined with how I think think they'll each perform in 2016, is the much more ideal route for me. btw, I'm completely willing to acknowledge my view on Javy is still hot take-y as we're not dealing with huge samples, but it's still how I feel. Nah, what you say makes sense. He's helped build his value back up to where he'd net us something very good. I just mentioned in Transactions, trying to get Smyly from Tampa for Starlin. To me, it's not nearly as clear cut as thinking Starlin will be more valuable in 2016. In fact, I think Javy will out value him, partially due to D. That said, I'm a Javy mark. Even if I'm trying to be even keeled, I'm unsure if I can be. He's just not a guy I want to trade and I fully acknowledge that it's wrong of me to think like that.

Miggy finding the guy in the #wearegood shirt, high fiving him and feeding him champagne.....I love this group.

Pitchers and their rhythms and stuff-I wouldn't. I mean [expletive], wasn't Hammel basically awesome until the first time Joe yanked him early?(Granted, he's not Jake) I'll be meatballish on this though, let him pitch. Even if its a set pitch count, just don't skip him.

@dgoold: Carlos Martinez (shoulder strain) will miss remainder of season, Mozeliak announces #cardinals #stlcards News coming soon at @StlToday.

While I know it shouldn't play into things, my honest guess is we'd be the last team they trade him to, after Jake.... Maybe, but I could see them having interest in Javy as someone who can play either SS or 3B depending on what they're going to do with Machado. Here's my Javy HOT TAKE - he's sacrificed a most of his power to now have a K/BB ratio that is merely terrible instead of historically awful. Yes, I'm probably taking his short stint in the Majors this year too much into consideration, but his ISO took a pretty big hit in AAA this year compared to last season as well. I'm also assuming Theo would like to trade one of Javy/Starlin and that Javy has more trade value. I will be the leader of the TRADE JAVY bandwagon this offseason, and Gausman is a great target. I can see that, but I don't think the power has been compromised myself. Way too small of a major league audition(it was fine in AAA). I think Starlin is the one who gets moved. We won't get anything earth shattering back, but I think it'll be enough to allow us to move him.

While I know it shouldn't play into things, my honest guess is we'd be the last team they trade him to, after Jake.... I just scanned the FA list for secondary(Villanueva types) SP's and it's ugly. Alfredo Simon may be the closest thing to that, that's out there. No idea what Billingsley's elbow situation is, but if he's capable of supposedly pitching at the start if the season, I'd take the proverbial flier on him. I want Cahill and Richard back(and think they will be) and if it doesn't affect bigger moves, I'd love to bring Wood back too. But my guess is we cut ties there.

I have no direct explanation for it, and maybe it's just a coincidence, but he's done it four times now. 120ish innings he looks amazing, then he's poop for awhile. Yeah, it's odd. If anything though, the silver lining hopefully winds up seeing us grab 2 SP's this offseason and not just 1. I want something like 2012, where we grabbed a bunch of swing guys too, only with a top guy better than Edwin Jackson. Yeah, same here.

I have no direct explanation for it, and maybe it's just a coincidence, but he's done it four times now. 120ish innings he looks amazing, then he's poop for awhile. Yeah, it's odd. If anything though, the silver lining hopefully winds up seeing us grab 2 SP's this offseason and not just 1.

I don't remember this discussion at all honestly. I just glanced at ERA's for him by month over his career(may be lazy of me, but I doubt the periphs are THAT much off). It doesn't seem like outside of last year(which was just a pathetic July that brought down his good August and September) and 2011, this is a true statement. He was also awesome for 118 innings in 2012 and then pretty bad in 2013 for the Orioles. Eh, if the idea is he gets tired as the season goes on, having an entire offseason of rest would quell those seasons for me. I'd just say he sucked in 2013.

I hate the Cards and Dodgers, don't like the Mets at all either. If the Pirates did beat us(they won't) I'll pull for them with no shame. Aramis deserves good things much more than a rat faced guy deserves bad things.

I don't remember this discussion at all honestly. I just glanced at ERA's for him by month over his career(may be lazy of me, but I doubt the periphs are THAT much off). It doesn't seem like outside of last year(which was just a pathetic July that brought down his good August and September) and 2011, this is a true statement.