davell

this is what a fart would look like Personally, I think he just horsefeathers himself and is now relaxing.

Lester is the studliest man there is that can't throw a baseball overhand to 1B.

Jesus, I think Heyward is to the point of sucking that his BA doesn't drop when he's out.

We can agree to disagree, but I think you're making the same mistake as Law of overvaluing traditional stuff. To spin it in the opposite direction as Kellogg, I have no idea what to do with Cease, because I'm incredibly pessimistic on him being much of an MLB starter, but other teams will clearly value the velo enough to see if he can figure out how to hit the strike zone a few times every at bat. But more to the point, Clifton and De La Cruz might be better prospects(gun to my head I probably have both of them in front of Kellogg right now), but there isn't a huge gap between them and the Kelloggs of the world. That's part "there are no special pitchers", part "The Cubs have no special pitchers", and part "Kellogg is checking all the boxes of someone who can succeed without insane stuff". Exactly this, at least if you want the short response - though gun to head I'd go Kellogg over de la Cruz right now. de la Cruz missing so much of the season to an elbow issue makes him a legitimate candidate to miss time in 2017 as the #1 predictor of injury is a recent and previous injury. I still think all the ingredients are there for Kellogg to increase velocity btw. That doesn't go away because Law didn't correct a leading question or there weren't any reports this year (in either direction, as I believe 84-87 only to be polite - we'd have heard about that kind of velocity long ago). That he fielded a question at all about Kellogg shows that we're not looking at a non-entity like Jokisch, same on Kellogg being a possible first in the preseason last year. I don't tout the guys I tout randomly and have a solid track record with prospects - especially the Cubs system in recent years - so I look forward to this playing out. I expect him to finish next season with a successful run in AA and a track to at least debut during 2018 at 24. I'll also mention that that question was more a trap question than a legit one. There is no real answer to that beyond the same expectations for everyone - do not suck. He held up, even got better as the year went on, and a high pedigree guy like him performing well is always a good thing. To address individual arms: de la Cruz - Missed half the season to elbow injury, two pitch guy right now, far off Tseng - Blew chunks this year, mediocre stuff on a short RH. I am confused on how his solid but unspectacular age 19 is relevant but Kellogg's entire amateur career is not. Zastrzny - Limited repertoire, command and control are mediocre at best Paulino - Command and control, keeps repeating levels, is not a nuanced pitcher and his run prevention reflects it, profiles as a reliever - though I really could like him as one Clark - Arm problems in the past, command and control problems, throws funny, straight reliever, what is even the appeal here? He throws hard? So do alot of guys, plus but not elite velocity is a fairly common trait these days - especially amomg RHs - and there's more to life Mekkes - Could be pretty fun as a reliever actually, but is a straight up reliever and those are hard to believe in Miller - His goal is to not be the next Skulina. I like him more coming out of school, but he's still more generic than his size lets on. Moreno - Maybe before the TJ, now he's boring too Like I said, for me, a guy like Kellogg, with average stuff(at best) needs to prove it at a higher level than A Ball, before he should even hit the radar. That's just my opinion obviously. If we hear something positive on him other than stat scouting, my opinion will change. Wasn't a trap question or anything, I still have no idea why his HS or college career matter, now that he's in the pros, considering he was highly thought of due to people thinking he would start showing more stuff. Until that's shown, I don't see why to think it'll just happen. De La Cruz- He's got actual upside that's higher than Kellogg does. The injury stuff is an issue, but Kellogg is a pitcher himself and this could happen to him too. Its not like he's out of danger yet, nor do we know how cautious the Cubs were with DLC either. At any rate, I definitely think he's got more trade value than Kellogg currently. Tseng- You kind of answered your own question with him. He did it at a much younger age than Kellogg did and he's struggling at advanced levels now. They're on the same level, stuff-wise, but since he's levels ahead, I'd err on his side. Zastryzny- He's looking like a fairly capable reliever already. Fairly decent chance Kellogg never throws a major league pitch, so again, I'll take the proximity, plus the idea that Z can produce more velo at this point. Although I'd be remiss to mention I'm a bit surprised to see his average FB in the majors is sitting slightly under 90. Especially after seeing reports of him hitting 95 at times. Paulino- I'll take the stuff over Kellogg's and think he's a potential breakout guy next year, because of it. Clark- Like I said, I need to see reports on him. But he did go into his junior year as a potential 1st rounder too. So I'm curious. Mekkes- I'm not sure what I want or need to see with him. He's a prove it guy too. I doubt I can see me putting him higher than Kellogg, unless he's got some sort of ridiculously great buzz that he was a steal. Which I doubt. Miller- Need to see reports, what I've seen so far wasn't noteworthy. But I'll be curious on his Instructs and placement next year, since he's considered an upside type. Moreno- I'm not as anti TJS as you and look at the age, relatively solid stuff, and wonder what else may be in there. More so than with Kellogg, age being a main reason.

Has your opinion on Zastryzny changed, since his callup? Or thinking that he's going to be effective in a non starting role? Valuing readiness, I could see him being a borderline top 10 guy for some, if they think he's better suited out of the pen.

TT, my general approach on rankings is my guess at a prospects trade value. (Ie- I definitely think a guy like Clifton or Delacruz would bring more of a return than Kellogg currently)The tools play big time into how I look at prospects. Then proximity comes next for me, since teams definitely prefer dealing for guys closer to the majors. Stat lines just don't play into things for me, unless they're ridiculously awful or the polar opposite. I bet there's quite a bit of difference, as to what we all value, when coming up with lists.

Clifton and De La Cruz are in a different stratosphere than a guy like Kellogg. They both have higher than 6th starter upside. Paulino has much better stuff and has shown quite a bit of improvement from last year. I'm not an Underwood fan currently, but he's actually younger than Kellogg and has upside that Kellogg doesn't. Zastryzny is still going to be prospect eligible. I doubt he's ever a starter for us, but I'd say his chances are greater than Kellogg's are. Tseng is a pitchability type that is 2 levels ahead of Kellogg and is younger, plus put up as good as, or better of an A Ball season at 20, than Kellogg did this year. Those 7 are guys I'd definitely put ahead of Kellogg, along with the low level guys like Albertos, Manuel Rondon, maybe Erling Moreno, and a few drafted guys. Hatch, for sure, with a possibility on Miller, Clark, and Mekkes, depending on any reports that are interesting. We can agree to disagree, but I think you're making the same mistake as Law of overvaluing traditional stuff. To spin it in the opposite direction as Kellogg, I have no idea what to do with Cease, because I'm incredibly pessimistic on him being much of an MLB starter, but other teams will clearly value the velo enough to see if he can figure out how to hit the strike zone a few times every at bat. But more to the point, Clifton and De La Cruz might be better prospects(gun to my head I probably have both of them in front of Kellogg right now), but there isn't a huge gap between them and the Kelloggs of the world. That's part "there are no special pitchers", part "The Cubs have no special pitchers", and part "Kellogg is checking all the boxes of someone who can succeed without insane stuff". Yeah, we look at this differently. I brought up Jokisch though, as a guy who did the same thing early on. I don't give a lot of credence to A Ball results, unless they're bad or its someone extremely young that's doing great. If it comes out over the winter that he's got something going for him, I'll amend my opinion. But I won't be ranking him very high until he's doing this in AA.

Clifton and De La Cruz are in a different stratosphere than a guy like Kellogg. They both have higher than 6th starter upside. Paulino has much better stuff and has shown quite a bit of improvement from last year. I'm not an Underwood fan currently, but he's actually younger than Kellogg and has upside that Kellogg doesn't. Zastryzny is still going to be prospect eligible. I doubt he's ever a starter for us, but I'd say his chances are greater than Kellogg's are. Tseng is a pitchability type that is 2 levels ahead of Kellogg and is younger, plus put up as good as, or better of an A Ball season at 20, than Kellogg did this year. Those 7 are guys I'd definitely put ahead of Kellogg, along with the low level guys like Albertos, Manuel Rondon, maybe Erling Moreno, and a few drafted guys. Hatch, for sure, with a possibility on Miller, Clark, and Mekkes, depending on any reports that are interesting.

You added more on an edit. The Longenhagen thing is nice, but its from college. I know you expected the velo to increase once we got ahold of him. That's rare when you're going from once a week to every 5th day. I'm waiting to see if it even held at 88-91, since the only true reading we've had all year was 84-87.(very early in year and not taking it seriously-but its not a stretch to think he's not been sitting 88-91 this year either.) 4 average pitches isn't nothing. But I don't see why you give him that kind of attention, if that's what you actually see out of him.

Well significant HS draft year attention, a scholarship to one of the handful best programs in the US as a Canadian player, and a top 5 round selection and full slot from arguably the best PD and overall org in the league at the time. Since I don't buy that you're not being a smartass, no worries as I'm used to the attempts, what exactly should it get you? Actually, I wasn't trying to be a smart ass. In fact, I've purposely tried staying away from stupid horsefeathers like this all season. If anything, i respected the idea you were trying to change peoples opinions of you online. Oh well, guess I was wrong to think that. I asked a legit evaluator of talent about your hand chosen guy and its literally the only thing close to info we've gotten on him all year. What I asked was a legit question. Again, I asked what that means.....Not for you to recite it. Unless you think it matters to hitters and some of them are terrified of his accomplishments, making his average stuff and velo play way up? And holy horsefeathers at full 5th round slot as a college junior being an accomplishment. Especially since he literally went into the season as a projected 1st rounder. Again, its a legit question. Reciting past accomplishments isn't remotely close to a real answer.

So, what exactly does a resume get you in baseball, if you've got no plus pitches and no velo? I'm not even trying to be a smart ass.

Can you find where Longenhagen said that? Are you saying that no one outside of Cease has more than swing starter capability, by the way? Kind of sounds like it. And I get you love your lefties and all, but holy horsefeathers, Johnson and Underwood both were much more highly thought of than Kellogg. Their draft position and bonus is all that's needed to prove that. Not to mention that both have possessed multiple plus pitches at different points in their minor league lives, while I've yet to see Kellogg has one. All Kellogg has done to date is do what Eric Jokisch did in A Ball. I was hoping for Law to correct me on his velo, but he didn't. Nor have we seen anything substantial all year on it. Neither have we heard a thing about a plus offering. I'm hoping there's an end of the year report that shows SOMETHING. Because, if not, he's just a college level lefty that took advantage of young hitting in A Ball, kind of like they're supposed to. No different than Jokisch.

I asked Law in his chat yesterday about Kellogg, trying to frame it in a way we'd get some info. I insinuated him throwing 87-88, Law didn't correct it and does not see him adding velo either. He also doesn't see him as a starting pitcher.

Manuel Rondon was named Pitcher of the Year in the NWL and has solid velo, albeit with some control issues. Still, he's someone to keep tabs on obviously. Tonight, he went 5 4 2 2 4 2, and gave up his 2nd HR of the year.

We'd rather have Grimm [expletive] the bed.

Definitely. Especially if we don't exercise Hammel's option or trade him. But we'll add a SP thru FA or trade anyway, so my guess is Montgomery is our 6th guy, unless he really, really forces the issue. i can't imagine they wouldn't exercise his option. it's only $10m and he's worth that pretty easily. I agree that he's worth it. But I can see the possibility that we don't want the salary on our books if we can't trade him. But the SP market thru FA is so weak, we should be able to.

Definitely. Especially if we don't exercise Hammel's option or trade him. But we'll add a SP thru FA or trade anyway, so my guess is Montgomery is our 6th guy, unless he really, really forces the issue.

De La Cruz went 6, gave up 8 hits, but only 2 runs(1 earned) and had zero walks and 7 K's. No velo reports that I've seen tonight on him or Clifton.

The Pelicans didn't let Michael Kopech, he of the supposed 105 MPH heat, get out of the 3rd. Trevor Clifton went 6, giving up 5 hits, a run(earned), a walk, and K'd 6.

With bullets like KB, Rizzo, Russell, Javy, Contreras, Hayward, Schwarber, Solar, and Hendricks......We're sustaining like a horsefeathers.

Eh, that just looks like regression, as he's not going to be completely unhittable. I want to hear some velo reports though, as he DID seem to be up and down a bit. To me, Cease is easily our best pitching prospect, due to the idea he'd garner more in trade than any of the others. I think we may wind up pleasantly surprised though, when Clifton starts showing up in some top 100 lists. Law thinks he's a future mid rotation guy. Not sexy, but fairly solid praise nonetheless, from him. I bet he's in his top 100 anyway.

Cease at 5 1 0 0 0 10 now. We've got our elite pitching guy.

Cease at 3 0 0 0 0 6 so far....

They're the favorites to win the LDS. If they do that, they're the favorites to win the LCS. If they do that, they're the favorites to win the WS. Therefore their WS win odds can be no lower than 51%. QED. True. But its also like putting Shaq on the line, hoping he's hitting 3 straight.

4 perfect innings, with 7 K's since returning.