MeatampPotatoesMan

I'd say 1.5 years is somewhat significant, especially given the contract length, although that's not what makes this contract absurd. True, BJ has had a few good seasons as a successful RP. But he's had 2 excellent seasons, and the other was just OK (think Scott Eyre with a few more K's). And when I say Ryan isn't that much better than Dempster, I am going to look at things like ERA and save percentage because, let's face it, that's what teams are going to judge player's value by. BJ Ryan is not getting 9 million per year just because of his stellar K/BB ratio, although that certainly helps his cause. He's getting this because he's relatively young, has great stuff, had a great year as closer last year, and the Blue Jays had to offer him more than the Yankees and Red Sox to pry him away. If we were operating on the Blue Jays payroll, and we gave someone this contract, I would imagine most of the people on this board would be up in arms over this deal. The fact is, most closers aren't worth that much, and I think it is wrong to throw that kind of a contract at a closer unless you can afford it like the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Cubs or someone like that. I just used Gagne as a comparison, because I think he is the best closer in baseball and much better than Ryan. Using the logic that Ryan was easily 4 million better than Dempster, I just threw that number out to illustrate how much I think the best player at the position should be getting if that's how we're measuring. Obviously, I know Gagne wouldn't get that much on the open market. OMG. You didn't just compare Eyre to BJ Ryan. I'm not even going to bother debating this with you as you value completely the wrong stats. ERA and save percentage?

lol. Riccardi has the competition overspending now. someone explain to me how this is a negative, even though he supposedly overpaid for BJ Ryan. someone list the available closers who have pitched in a late season pennant race. if we're going to criticize, let us (GMs included) at least have valid and supportable arguments.

There's no way Ryan is justified in making 4m in Dempster. He's older, has closed for just as long as Dempster and, arguably, wasn't really that much better than Dempster when he did close. The Blue Jays are paying premium money for a guy who has had one year of success at the postion they are asking him to be one of the best in the business. If Ryan is worth 9.5 million, and 4m more than Dempster, than I think Gagne should be looking for 15-17 a year if he wants to earn his "value" over Ryan. He's older? Yeah, by about 18 months. BJ hasn't had TJS and has had more than a season as a successful RP. Wasn't much better? How do you figure that? Save percentage? That's a function of a lot more than the pitcher. Dempster flat out got lucky several times this year. He'll probably regress to his true self next year, sorry to say. Gagne also has injury concerns and isn't on the FA market right now, which would change the value of BJ Ryan. How can you just throw out all this info when evaluating what a player is worth? Injury concerns, pitching history, stats, and availability of comparable players on the market all factor into what a player is going to get.

What do you mean he beat up his pregnant wife? Do you have the info for this? I know a guy that was an idiot but this is what happened when he got charged with a felony. He was arguing with his wife wife and threw an empty beer can at her. She picked up the kid to protect herself from getting hit, the can hit the kid and he got charged and convicted for a felony. After this, I want to know what happened when someone is accused of or even convicted of a crime. There are just too many rumors out there that snowball into something bigger for some strange reason. The same guys saying we should wait to judge Hendry have already tried and convicted Bradley based on tertiary information. :lol: Personally, I can't see Bradley pulling the malcontent act around a good clubhouse, which by all accounts, the 2005 clubhouse was.

wow, people (insiders and fans alike) were calling 50M/5 overpaying for Furcal. 100M/6 didn't set off the BS alarm?

@ 2-3 times the cost. FYI, Neither Ryan nor Wagner were ever options for the Cubs since the day the Cubs signed Dempster to an extension. He's also several years younger and his numbers are much better, hence the higher cost. You're probably right on the second point, which shows a lack of imagination on Hendry's part. Would you rather have Ryan @ 5 yrs. 47 mil or Dempster @ 3/ 15.5? Both were in their 1st year as closers. FYI, Ryan is 29 & Dempster is 28 To my knowledge, BJ Ryan has never had TJS. I know what you are getting at; I think Wood is an exception in that regard. Look at Burnett. Hasn't he had TJS twice? I was just adding to the argument that BJ Ryan is justified in making 4M more per season than Dempster. He's a better pitcher with a more proven track record and doesn't have injury issues. Yeah, I like Burnett's stuff, but 4-6 years at premium FA prices for a guy with injury concerns is ridiculous. If Toronto does give him 50M/5+ then I will blast Riccardi. The money isn't bad (it's free agency), but the years are unjustifiable, IMO.

@ 2-3 times the cost. FYI, Neither Ryan nor Wagner were ever options for the Cubs since the day the Cubs signed Dempster to an extension. He's also several years younger and his numbers are much better, hence the higher cost. You're probably right on the second point, which shows a lack of imagination on Hendry's part. Would you rather have Ryan @ 5 yrs. 47 mil or Dempster @ 3/ 15.5? Both were in their 1st year as closers. FYI, Ryan is 29 & Dempster is 28 To my knowledge, BJ Ryan has never had TJS.

Why would we invest $200m in a middle IF that wouldn't even be in the top 3 in baseball? top 3 most overrated MI in baseball. :lol:

I'd be sickly fascinated with this team if this rumor comes true. It's like watching a train wreck. You just can't turn away. I really don't believe this rumor. It's totally ridiculous. Why would we want Soriano when Hendry's been clamoring about defense being a priority?

I want your crystal ball. You're basically guaranteeing that Howry/Eyre will suck in the near future while Ryan will absolutely improve on his stats. The Cubs should hire you right away with such unbelievable skills of prognostication It's no mystery. Look at the up and down natures of Howry/Eyre over their careers and the short term improvement they've experienced at an older age. What's your projection for the future? Yeah, they'll both put up 2005 numbers for the life of their contracts. Look at how the blankety blanking numbers trend for Pete's sake (i gave a link earlier in the thread). This is a fundamental concept in business/science/engineering. Please have some evidence to support your POV instead of blind opinion while calling my opinion looking in a "crystal ball" when I have given justification for my stance.

Wow. Take a pill, pal. I just posted my solution - follow the Oakland and Minni models. But since I don't feel like arguing about this any longer, I'll drop it. whatever. don't bother whining about my criticisms of Hendry if you're going to have weak arguments for bashing another team's GM. No prob. And thanks for ignoring my arguments in order to bolster your own. I hope you feel special now. I'm sorry, was that an actual argument? Use the Twins/A's approach? Have you even looked at those teams contracts? They have some horrible ones on the books. $60M/6 for Jason Kendall Torri Hunter at $22.75M over the next two seasons. I found your argument laughable, considering I had already commented on those same issues in this thread. You didn't even qualify your remarks. You just threw out some general statement and didn't back it up with anything resembling fact (which is supposedly what you were responding to anyways).

Well, I guess they had to pay more b/c it is Toronto. I think they had $30M to spend this offseason. Giles and Burnett are still possibilities. It's only $9.4M per year. :lol: The years is what surprised me, although he is a very good pitcher. I'd rather have him at 47M/5 than eyre and howry at a combined 23M/3 (7.67M/year), but that dream is gone. You're insane and you owe me for trashing my support on Eyre and Howry's deals. Why? The Eyre and Howry deals are still garbage. Look at how each pitcher's numbers have trended (i posted a link a few posts back). Eyre and Howry are both pretty good bets to have awful years in the next 3 seasons (howry less so) and Ryan is a good bet to put up numbers at or better than 2005 for 4-5 years. Giving 7.7M/year to two relievers with significant medical history is ok, but giving 9.4M/year to a healthy dominant relief pitcher is insane? Both Eyre and Ryan received little over 300% raises over their last year's salaries. Howry received little over a 200% raise. All three of these guys are making comparitively the same amounts percentage wise over their previous season's market value (well, BJ Ryan received less than market value as he avoided arbitration but was still underpaid). Not to mention the BJ Ryan signing makes Batista expendable (who makes 4.75M next year). Who did Eyre and Howry push off the team? Guys making the league minimum.

Wow. Take a pill, pal. I just posted my solution - follow the Oakland and Minni models. But since I don't feel like arguing about this any longer, I'll drop it. whatever. don't bother whining about my criticisms of Hendry if you're going to have weak arguments for bashing another team's GM.

RR, I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you, as I realize that the Blue Jays have had a much better go of it over the last, say, 15 years. But, come on, Toronto hasn't had a franchise long enough to even talk about a winning tradition. After another 7,500 wins or so, then we can talk, eh? 1876 thru 2005 World Series team W L pct PA W L Chicago Cubs 9835 9291 0.514 14 2 8 Toronto Blue Jays 2258 2304 0.495 5 2 0 What division are the Jays in again? It takes more than a so-so team to make it to the playoffs in the AL East. I'd submit that the NL Central will be the second toughest in the game this year. I submit that we match up well against the Cards and Astros, while the Jays don't against the Sox/Yankees. The Jays are also further away from their competition than we are (2005's nose dive nonwithstanding). Their budgets aren't even comparably close. How are the Jays supposed to close the gap? Trade prospects? That doesn't benefit a smaller market team (small compared to the Yankees and Sox). Free Agency has to be the difference maker. Who isn't overpaid in free agency. The question is how much you are going to over pay. So how doesn't Riccardi have to "overpay to bring in talent?" Tell me how he gets his team into the playoffs without free agency? I just want to make sure I have this right: Its ok to overspend b/c you exist in a div. with overspenders. This of course can be contrasted with the Twins and A's, who are low-budget teams that rarely overspend but still win b/c they make intelligent baseball moves on a budget...and coexist in part with teams that spend more...like the Jays do...... The A's do compete with higher payroll teams, but we're talking about the biggest spenders in the game in the Yankees and the BoSox. It isn't even proportionally close. Angels Payroll (highest in division $95M) to A's Payroll ($56M): 1.7 Yankees Payroll (highest in division $206M) to Jay's Payroll ($45M): 4.6 OK, so if the A's played in the AL East, it would be okay to overspend...no matter their budget...or the "true" value of the players...etc... The difference between the competition for the A's and the Jay's is substantially different (twice as much $ wise). The A's can compete in their division, but not dominate. That should tell you something. Money does matter. It places limitations on what you can acquire. When the teams in your division are spending 4 TIMES AS MUCH AS YOU (not 1.5 times as much like the A's) you have to take risks to be competitive. You can't wait for your farm system to produce 2-3 studs at the same time. Seriously, tell me what the Jays are supposed to do. You have all sorts of criticisms right now, but you won't back anything up. I at least qualify and quantify my criticisms of Hendry. I'll tell you what they should do: don't overpay for the likes of Ryan, Koskie, and Vernon Wells such that you devote the lion's share of your proportionally small payroll to them. They should develop their young players and give them a chance (a la the A's) and then add the supporting pieces via trades and FAs. This approach requires patience, which the A's have had w/ Beane and the Twins have had with Terry Ryan, and thus they win. This signing makes no sense for a team like the Jays. They are on the cusp of nothing. Closers can't help you unless you have something to close. They won 80 games in the AL East with Halladay only pitching 140 innings. Has Riccardi made mistakes? Of course. So has Beane. Neither is omnipotent. Both play the odds (you don't always win). However, when you play the odds, you need a sizable period of time for things to shake out. Riccardi hasn't had that, so I don't know why you're bagging on him. If the Jays add Burnett, their team is vastly improved from last year. Barring injury, I could see them at 90 wins next year. That's close enough if the Yankees or Boston stumbles. They need to acquire difference makers. That's why they are pursuing BJ Ryan and Burnett. So how are the Jays supposed to close the gap with the BoSox and the Yankees? Go ahead. Take a stab. You're all criticisms and no solutions on this subject. Waiting for enough talent to reach the major league club at the same time is a high risk strategy, especially considering the time Riccardi has between his first draft and realizing the fruits of his labor. An impatient owner will can him before that can take full effect.

I'd like to see a study on that, b/c looking at how we struggled to find a "closer" last season, not just anyone can do it, although they enter the game with no inhereted runners most of the time with only 1 inning to pitch. Just how valuable are those wins? 10M per season?

Bastages. :lol: ...tormenting a fellow human being like that.

The Bucs are playing horrible D lately and we're just hitting our stride. It looks good for the Bears, but sometimes we decide not to show up for 4 quarters (New Orleans). We can't do that with the good teams. Bears 17 Bucs 14

RR, I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you, as I realize that the Blue Jays have had a much better go of it over the last, say, 15 years. But, come on, Toronto hasn't had a franchise long enough to even talk about a winning tradition. After another 7,500 wins or so, then we can talk, eh? 1876 thru 2005 World Series team W L pct PA W L Chicago Cubs 9835 9291 0.514 14 2 8 Toronto Blue Jays 2258 2304 0.495 5 2 0 What division are the Jays in again? It takes more than a so-so team to make it to the playoffs in the AL East. I'd submit that the NL Central will be the second toughest in the game this year. I submit that we match up well against the Cards and Astros, while the Jays don't against the Sox/Yankees. The Jays are also further away from their competition than we are (2005's nose dive nonwithstanding). Their budgets aren't even comparably close. How are the Jays supposed to close the gap? Trade prospects? That doesn't benefit a smaller market team (small compared to the Yankees and Sox). Free Agency has to be the difference maker. Who isn't overpaid in free agency. The question is how much you are going to over pay. So how doesn't Riccardi have to "overpay to bring in talent?" Tell me how he gets his team into the playoffs without free agency? I just want to make sure I have this right: Its ok to overspend b/c you exist in a div. with overspenders. This of course can be contrasted with the Twins and A's, who are low-budget teams that rarely overspend but still win b/c they make intelligent baseball moves on a budget...and coexist in part with teams that spend more...like the Jays do...... The A's do compete with higher payroll teams, but we're talking about the biggest spenders in the game in the Yankees and the BoSox. It isn't even proportionally close. Angels Payroll (highest in division $95M) to A's Payroll ($56M): 1.7 Yankees Payroll (highest in division $206M) to Jay's Payroll ($45M): 4.6 OK, so if the A's played in the AL East, it would be okay to overspend...no matter their budget...or the "true" value of the players...etc... The difference between the competition for the A's and the Jay's is substantially different (twice as much $ wise). The A's can compete in their division, but not dominate. That should tell you something. Money does matter. It places limitations on what you can acquire. When the teams in your division are spending 4 TIMES AS MUCH AS YOU (not 1.5 times as much like the A's) you have to take risks to be competitive. You can't wait for your farm system to produce 2-3 studs at the same time. Seriously, tell me what the Jays are supposed to do. You have all sorts of criticisms right now, but you won't back anything up. I at least qualify and quantify my criticisms of Hendry.

RR, I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you, as I realize that the Blue Jays have had a much better go of it over the last, say, 15 years. But, come on, Toronto hasn't had a franchise long enough to even talk about a winning tradition. After another 7,500 wins or so, then we can talk, eh? 1876 thru 2005 World Series team W L pct PA W L Chicago Cubs 9835 9291 0.514 14 2 8 Toronto Blue Jays 2258 2304 0.495 5 2 0 What division are the Jays in again? It takes more than a so-so team to make it to the playoffs in the AL East. I'd submit that the NL Central will be the second toughest in the game this year. I submit that we match up well against the Cards and Astros, while the Jays don't against the Sox/Yankees. The Jays are also further away from their competition than we are (2005's nose dive nonwithstanding). Their budgets aren't even comparably close. How are the Jays supposed to close the gap? Trade prospects? That doesn't benefit a smaller market team (small compared to the Yankees and Sox). Free Agency has to be the difference maker. Who isn't overpaid in free agency. The question is how much you are going to over pay. So how doesn't Riccardi have to "overpay to bring in talent?" Tell me how he gets his team into the playoffs without free agency? I just want to make sure I have this right: Its ok to overspend b/c you exist in a div. with overspenders. This of course can be contrasted with the Twins and A's, who are low-budget teams that rarely overspend but still win b/c they make intelligent baseball moves on a budget...and coexist in part with teams that spend more...like the Jays do...... The A's do compete with higher payroll teams, but we're talking about the biggest spenders in the game in the Yankees and the BoSox. It isn't even proportionally close. Angels Payroll (highest in division $95M) to A's Payroll ($56M): 1.7 ChiSox Payroll (highest in division $75M) to Twin's Payroll ($57M): 1.3 Yankees Payroll (highest in division $206M) to Jay's Payroll ($45M): 4.6

RR, I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you, as I realize that the Blue Jays have had a much better go of it over the last, say, 15 years. But, come on, Toronto hasn't had a franchise long enough to even talk about a winning tradition. After another 7,500 wins or so, then we can talk, eh? 1876 thru 2005 World Series team W L pct PA W L Chicago Cubs 9835 9291 0.514 14 2 8 Toronto Blue Jays 2258 2304 0.495 5 2 0 What division are the Jays in again? It takes more than a so-so team to make it to the playoffs in the AL East. I'd submit that the NL Central will be the second toughest in the game this year. I submit that we match up well against the Cards and Astros, while the Jays don't against the Sox/Yankees. The Jays are also further away from their competition than we are (2005's nose dive nonwithstanding). Their budgets aren't even comparably close. How are the Jays supposed to close the gap? Trade prospects? That doesn't benefit a smaller market team (small compared to the Yankees and Sox). Free Agency has to be the difference maker. Who isn't overpaid in free agency. The question is how much you are going to over pay. So how doesn't Riccardi have to "overpay to bring in talent?" Tell me how he gets his team into the playoffs without free agency?

2005 Stats as relievers: IP BB/9 K/9 HR/9 WHIP K/BB Ryan Dempster 55.3 4.07 7.97 0.16 1.19 1.96 BJ Ryan 70.1 3.33 12.80 0.51 1.14 3.85

RR, I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you, as I realize that the Blue Jays have had a much better go of it over the last, say, 15 years. But, come on, Toronto hasn't had a franchise long enough to even talk about a winning tradition. After another 7,500 wins or so, then we can talk, eh? 1876 thru 2005 World Series team W L pct PA W L Chicago Cubs 9835 9291 0.514 14 2 8 Toronto Blue Jays 2258 2304 0.495 5 2 0 What division are the Jays in again? It takes more than a so-so team to make it to the playoffs in the AL East.

That's what shook me - 3 years made more sense. The spending is over the top so far this year, and it ain't just Hendry. Well, Wagner was offered 4 years, and Ryan is younger (with far less mileage on his arm), so I guess thats not too surprising either. It's free agency and there are a ton of teams with money to spend and fans to please by bringing in the bigger names. So its okay to spend if you bring in a "bigger name". Just clarifying. If Hendry had done this deal instead of the Eyre and Howry deals, you would have been okay with it b/c Ryan is the "bigger name"? No, it's ok to overspend on pen arms that have a reasonable chance of putting up similar numbers throughout the life of their contracts. You honestly think Eyre and Howry are going to put up similar numbers to 2005 for 3 years? Ryan has a greater chance to keep his 2005 numbers for 5. Look at how their stats trend: http://www.fangraphs.com/comparison.aspx?playerid=168&position=P&page=3&playerid2=237&playerid3=1300 Eyre and Howry are very likely to take significant downturns in the next 3 years. Ryan might be in trouble come the last year of his contract.

Over 1/2 of their roster is making close to the league minimum. They actually use younger players to fill roster spots. With that kind of base, you can afford to take risks like this. Eyre and Howry have both had significant medical injuries. Ryan hasn't to my knowledge. Spreading the risk between two relievers for a similar amount of cash per year may be smart considering their troubles keeping healthy. Having all their eggs in one basket? The Jays are increasing payroll significantly and have quite a bit of young talent to lean on. The Cubs aren't in the same position. We're going to have to spend big time to keep the talent we have (Lee, Prior, Z).

That's what shook me - 3 years made more sense. The spending is over the top so far this year, and it ain't just Hendry. Well, Wagner was offered 4 years, and Ryan is younger (with far less mileage on his arm), so I guess thats not too surprising either. It's free agency and there are a ton of teams with money to spend and fans to please by bringing in the bigger names.