Oh really... Sidney Ponson ERA+ last three years. 2003: 115 2004: 90 2005: 67 Jerome Williams 2003: 130 2004: 105 2005: 100 Comments: Williams best year is better than Ponson and even in his worst year, he was league average. Greg Maddux 2003: 105 2004: 113 2005: 101 Comments: Maddux is declining, but is still league average. Something Ponson has only accomplished once in the past three years. Glendon Rusch 2003: 68 2004: 131 2005: 94 Comments: Rusch sucks, and yet his worst year was still better than Ponson's worse year. "[expletive]'" horrible year came three years ago. Ponson's was in his most recent season. Rusch's best year was better than Ponson's best year, and Rusch's median year also was better than Ponson's median year. The only spot Ponson is likely to be better than the Cubs is against the emergency fifth starter. Even then, I'd rather go with Hill, Marshall, or Guzman over Ponson. His track record is that of a below average pitcher and a few spring performances doesn't change that. What Ponson has a decent chance or better than decent chance is to be a below average pitcher for a number of starts. He's likely to put up an ERA somewhere around 4.67-5.15. He has a "slim" chance of outperforming Rusch and the Cubs' fifth starter. He has almost no chance of outperforming 4/5 of the Cubs rotation. Saying so would be like me saying Jacque Jones has a decent chance of out performing the entire Cardinals hitters except Pujols. It could happen, but the chances of it are as about as likely as your statement about Ponson coming true. Well my comment sure got people riled up. :D Vance, you used a rate stat like OPS+ where as I used VORP. I used VORP because if nothing else Ponson as the ability to eat innnings (think Jeff Suppan). Beyond Z and Maddox (who's 40) I don't see anyone as a lock to get 30 starts since Wood, Prior and Millar will be coming back (and then leaving again?). My comment was a fun bit of hyperbole however it’s not totally inconceivable. As a side note, I looked up William's PECOTA card and I was shocked how bearish it was with a VORP of 6.9. Heck the fat bird even got a 11.1. edit - spelling