USSoccer

He's arb eligible. I think.

I'd rather not completely gut the top pitching prospects in our system for 2 guys (Pierre and Huff) that are not difference makers. I don't think Huff is very good, I believe the reports of him having attitude issues are more than just him being stuck in Tampa, and all arguments I've had about Guzman aside, he's worth more to us than he should be in a trade to other teams. If this goes down, in 2 years we will have lost Sisco, Pinto, Mitre, Leicester, Nolasco, Guzman and Welley, and gotten Juan Pierre and Aubrey Huff for our troubles. That's called misusing your assets. So I hope that the other deal on the table is the one that goes down.

Shifting Aramis' production to LF doesn't make us better. That's a lateral move. Instead of a hole in the OF, with a few possibilities in the FA market as well as via trade, you'd have a gaping hole at 3B with no options to fill it. And that doesn't even factor in ages, salaries, and positions played. I'd rather have Encarnacion or Preston Wilson with Aramis knowing that Aramis is entering what should be a prime just as good as the prime Manny is leaving, than have an aging, petulant, expensive Manny plus a revolving door at 3B. Bad. Idea.

I think you're probably right, but I don't think Hendry values Walker as he should.

I think that, just scanning that list Texas and Seattle look like "on paper" fits for a trade involving Walker. Walker to Texas for Mench Walker to Seattle for Ibanez The Mets probably would like Walker if the do trade for Manny Ramirez, but I just don't see Manny leaving Boston, as Boston is not going to get equal value for him, and they're better off trying to appease Manny rather than deal him for below value. San Diego and St Louis have nothing I want, and Florida isn't going to take a major league 2B, and even if they did, there's not one left there to trade for.

Who bats 5th USS? Walker? Murton? Barrett? Who bats second? I see Baker putting Sanders 5th if he was on the team. I really don't see Mr. Hendry going after anotehr right handed bat. I think he would rather have a terrible lefty bat (Jones) then a solid righty bat. Do you think Walker is going to stay? Pierre Walker Lee Ramirez Murton Sanders Barrett Cedeno But I think Walker gets traded for someone. I agree on Baker and Sanders, and it's not a bad option, except that the heart of your order is all right handed, but that's not a big deal if they are all good players. It's not like Lee and Aramis have huge splits like Trot Nixon or someone.

Who bats 5th USS? Walker? Murton? Barrett?

What about Reggie Sanders? He has the 2nd or 3rd highest VOPR amongst the remaining FA options, could play RF and bat 6th, and put up a decent line in a full season. Plus, he's unlikely to command big money or multiple years.

I just posted this elsewhere, but a platoon with Trot Nixon (who may be available) might not be a bad combination, although in that scenario I'd rather trade for Mench than put Hairston in RF.

What bout the possibility that the rumored Crisp for Arroyo/Clement deal is to replace Trot Nixon in RF? Would Nixon be an attractive RF option?

I think he could. The Cubs would be below average defensively at all 3 positions, but at least they could field a competent offensive OF, which is a bigger concern right now. So in other words, it's one of the best possible scenarios left, but one that probably won't come into play because Hendry is overvaluing defense this offseason. I think If Hendry aquired Floyd he and Baker would probably be more tempted to play him in LF, have Murton be the 4th OF and sign an Encarnacion for RF.

But can Floyd play an effective RF?

I think that if you assume that Eyre and Howry give Baker enough pen options so as to not completely use up Wuertz by June 15th, and if you (correctly, IMO) assume Pierre gives us about .50-.75 more OBP points out of the leadoff spot, you would win anywhere from 1-6 more games on average. Just by default, we've upped the odds tha Aramis or Lee come up with a guy on more often with Pierre leading off. However, just making these tweaks doesn't make us a contender. It makes us somewhat improved over last season, which is not Jim Hendry's job. Hendry's job is to make sure we are the best possible team going into the season. Then again there is no more Nomar, no RF as of yet and we are also hoping for 2 rookies to pan out. And Derrek Lee is unlikely to produce the way he did last year. But to make up for it you assume Aramis doesn't miss 6 weeks, and you have the Murton gain over the LF's in 2005 to factor in. Also, more opportunities for Lee and Aramis thanks to Pierre can somewhat help Lee avoid a major regression from his run producing numbers.

I think that if you assume that Eyre and Howry give Baker enough pen options so as to not completely use up Wuertz by June 15th, and if you (correctly, IMO) assume Pierre gives us about .50-.75 more OBP points out of the leadoff spot, you would win anywhere from 1-6 more games on average. Just by default, we've upped the odds tha Aramis or Lee come up with a guy on more often with Pierre leading off. However, just making these tweaks doesn't make us a contender. It makes us somewhat improved over last season, which is not Jim Hendry's job. Hendry's job is to make sure we are the best possible team going into the season. Then again there is no more Nomar, no RF as of yet and we are also hoping for 2 rookies to pan out. Nomar didn't give us anything anyway last year. Even the end of the season was less than what Aramis would have given you had he not fell over 1B trying to prove fans wrong about his lack of hustle with a bad leg. As far as RF goes, I'm assuming in my post that we sign Jones, Wilson or Encarnacion and they give you just about exactly what Burnitz gave you, no more, no less. The rookies are a case of Murton being clearly better that Hollandsworth, and more prepared for being an everyday LF than Dubois. His projections for 2006 all look about right, and are all upgrades over what we had in LF most of the important part of last season. Cedeno should at worst give you exactly what Neifi gave you in 2005.

What you said. Last 3 years: 125, 157, 148 games I don't think you can give up little enough to make it a net gain. Anything you give the Brewers is dangerous, because they're probably where we were going into 2003.

I think that if you assume that Eyre and Howry give Baker enough pen options so as to not completely use up Wuertz by June 15th, and if you (correctly, IMO) assume Pierre gives us about .50-.75 more OBP points out of the leadoff spot, you would win anywhere from 1-6 more games on average. Just by default, we've upped the odds tha Aramis or Lee come up with a guy on more often with Pierre leading off. However, just making these tweaks doesn't make us a contender. It makes us somewhat improved over last season, which is not Jim Hendry's job. Hendry's job is to make sure we are the best possible team going into the season.

What you said.

A title w/ as awful as our offseason... Tells me yes. It's a mess if you have little faith in Prior. I can't see a 3rd down year for him though. Where did you see anything about Prior in Goony's post? Also, what does it matter if Prior has a good year? If we don't score runs more consistently, he can put up a sub 2 ERA and still lose games. That goes for all of our good pitchers. The "One Big Problem" that the Cubs have had for the past 3 seasons is offensive consistency. With offensive consistency, they run away with the Central in 2003 and don't have to completely nuke Wood and Prior down the stretch. With offensive consistency, they make the playoffs in 2004 despite injuries, and with offensive consistency they could have competed for at least the WC in 2005. Erye, Howry and Pierre are really nice moves IF we get a legit run producer in RF. If we don't do that, and settle for the best available like Jones or Wilson, we will have to count on luck, regression from the Cards and Astros and health to win in 2006. I'd rather not leave all of that to chance.

If you think signing Jones would be bad, just wait until Baker bats him between Lee and ARam because he's a lefty.

I'd make that deal if I knew that the Cubs could then spin Connor or Quentin in a bigger deal for Abreu. Abreu and Tracy are better than Lee and one of the RF options currently on the FA market.

So let it be written. And if it comes to pass, Tim can change my name to USStradamus.

I've been right a little too often this offseason. Let's hope that evens out. Well then predict we're going to get Manny or something. Okay, I predict the Cubs will send Walker, Harvey, and Murton for Manny and cash. That still leaves us without a right fielder. A smaller trade or FA signing like Encarnacion or Jay Payton would follow.

I would have put the head of Jose Macias in his bed. That's going to replace the whale in my nightmares.

I've been right a little too often this offseason. Let's hope that evens out. Well then predict we're going to get Manny or something. Okay, I predict the Cubs will send Walker, Harvey, and Murton for Manny and cash.

I've been right a little too often this offseason. Let's hope that evens out.