Tracer Bullet

It's not like he replaced Zambrano with Marquis. Marmol has been lights out all year, and there's no reason to think he couldn't have pitched good innings in relief. We lost game one because we scored one run on 4 hits. It's a tie game, Lou only trusts 2 guys in his pen. Assuming Marmol and Howry do well, they probably go for a combined 2-3 innings, Lou has to turn the pen over to Dempster who he doesn't trust. The decision to take out Z after 6 had multiple holes in it...Z was cruising and could have gone 1 inning and not really hurt himself for game 4, you're playing for a game that might not exist and the earlier you go to the bullpen, the earlier you get to the weak guys in the pen. And I don't care that the Cubs had the advantage in the matchups in games 2 - 4. We saw what that meant yesterday - and we saw what it meant in 2003 with Prior and Wood in games 6 and 7. Take advantage of the game you can actually win then and there in a short series. I disagree. I think Lou trusts Wood too. And if we get the lead, he's not going to go to anyone other than Dempster, so whether or not he "trusts" him is irrelevant, he wasn't going to pitch Dempster if we were tied or behind - only if we had the lead; and if we had it, he wasn't going to go to anyone other than Dempster. So he needed 2 IP out of Marmol, Wood, and Howry, figuring the offense scores at least 1 and Dempster gets the save in the 9th. No issues w/ that move.

It's not like he replaced Zambrano with Marquis. Marmol has been lights out all year, and there's no reason to think he couldn't have pitched good innings in relief. We lost game one because we scored one run on 4 hits. Unless my math is fuzzy, Zambrano had only given up 1 run as well. 1-1 is not a loss. And if Zambrano is asked to bunt to move Theriot to 3rd, it's quite possible that Soriano's fly out to CF scores Theriot. Now you have Zambrano still pitching with a 2-1 lead. And if Lee had homered in every AB, we would have won! Look, if you disagree w/ removing Z in a 1-1 tie, that's one thing, but your hypo imagines a Lou mistake (not bunting w/ Z w/ Theriot on 2nd & 0 out) didn't happen. In reality it was a 1-1 game and the really good guys in the pen were fresh. I still think that if Z were left in and given up the lead, we'd be crucifying Lou for that. I'm no Lou apologist, I think he's made some really dumb moves. Lifting Z at that point is not one of them. It's completely illogical to play Game 1 of a 5 game serious as if it's Game 7 of the WS.

If only...

Hmmm. I wouldn't bet the farm on that one. If the Cubs somehow won the next two games, I doubt that the D-Backs would risk their season on a rookie pitching against Zambrano, IN Chicago. My guess is if the Cubs are up 2-1, Webb is pitching on Sunday. If Arizona is up 2-1, Webb pitches on Tuesday in Arizona. It would be real nice for the Cubs to be up 2-1 in this series rather than down 2-1 come Sunday. I think it would be a terrible decision for the Diamondbacks if they moved Webb up. He has never pitched on 3 days rest in his career, and the Diamondbacks have no real reason to move him up like the Cubs do. The difference between Micah Owings and Doug Davis is a lot smaller than the difference between Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis. The D-Backs would be giving themselves less chance of winning the series just to give them a greater chance of winning game 4. I hope they make that decision, but I doubt they will. But if the D-Backs are facing elimination, the difference between Webb on short rest versus Owning/Davis can be quite significant. Personally, the only way I see Arizona NOT using Webb in game four is if they're up 2-1. That way they can hope to clinch the series at Wrigley with Ownings/Davis or use Webb on regular rest at home. They are facing elimination in game 5 too. What does it matter if it helps them win game 4 but causes them to have a smaller chance of winning the series? It's better to give yourself the best chance to win the current game and hope you can cobble something together in the next one. If you don't win this game, it doesn't matter what you have saved up for game 5 (or, in the Cubs case, what ace you have saved up for game 4 :x). Why is it better though? Basically you're taking a known (Webb pitching well in game 5) and turning it into an unknown. Your chances of winning game 4 might be better, but if you can't win game 5 it doesn't matter. Basically, you have two games left. You can pitch Webb on short rest and Davis, or Webb on regular rest and Owings. Which is more likely to get good performances out of both? IMO, the second. The order of the games doesn't matter. Why is Webb pitching well in Game 5 a "known" - he's never had a bad game on an extra day of rest? If Webb pitching on short rest in Game 4 will (certainly or VERY likely) result in a bad outing and/or loss, then you save him for Game 5. That would be true if the Dbacks were thinking of pitching him tonight. But I don't think that's nearly the case. Especially since the alternative is an extra day of rest - which, in some cases, messes up a pitcher as much as short rest. Is he more likely to pitch well on 5 days rest than 3? If he's never pitched on 3 days rest, how can you possibly know (or even have an educated guess)? I have to figure a team would rather have their ace in a must-win Game 4 and their #2 in a must-win Game 5 than their #4 in a must-win Game 4 and their ace in Game 5. Especially when your ace is the best pitcher in the league.

I couldn't care less about making the dirt in front of home plate soft, unless they only softened it before the Cubs' ABs each inning. It's not like the soft ground actually attracts ground balls - if we had hit line drives, it wouldn't matter if it was soft dirt or cement. But if he's got pine tar on his hat - that's a different story.

No one has any screen captures? I only saw the first half of the game and didn't really notice anything.

True, but how many times is Z right? Z: Play Murton. Lou: Nah, Monroe's really going to help us against LHP down the strech. Z: Idiot. Maybe more often than you think.

Actually, yes. I was part of ESPN's "Five Reasons You Can't Blame Bartman" special. I hated to see this kid get tarred and feathered. Alex Gonzalez ought to send Bartman Christmas cards every year. The thing I hate about the networks is their fascination with Bartman and the goat. I've said ever since that day that Gonzalez should be giving Bartman his paychecks for the rest of his career. BTW - on your blog bio, it says you frequent Cubs message boards. Funny...I don't remember seeing you on any...

.689 and .694 the 2 months before that. Murton: .918 OPS after the ASB (.979 in Sept). Just like last season, there's no reason to spend money on Floyd. He's fine, but we have a cheaper, younger player that is going to match/exceed Floyd's performance at his position (corner OF).

http://www.northsidebaseball.com/PremiumForum/viewtopic.php?t=44406 viewtopic.php?t=44406

I get up between 5 and 5:30 am for work (EST). Ain't a chance I'll be awake for the whole game. Slim that I'll see the first pitch. I hate EST.

14? I thought the ESPN story said Boras was asking for 20 per.

Not in the one game at the one moment in time when we needed him to be. :cry: Theriot wouldn't screw up that play. He's too scrappy.

You should report it to Ebay. It seems like the guy would have to put that information into the auction if he knew about it. Maybe you can get your money back. Seriously you should do this. It's fraud, and eBay tries to take it seriously. I agree. If you didn't have the seat directly behind the pole (ie, the Cubs wouldn't call it "obstructed view"), it would still be BS for this guy not to say you were behind the pole if he knew about it. But given where you are and the fact that he called the next day, it's total fraud. He knew people wouldn't pay as much for the seat if they knew it was directly behind the pole.

First name that comes to mind is Paul DePodesta. Maybe he can get his old team to give up some of those young players like Kemp, Billingsley, Loney, etc that are such trouble makers. DePodesta was a GM for a total of 2 years. That hardly qualifies as "consistently above average." That is my problem with people that constantly complain about Hendry and how easy it would be to replace him with a better GM. Sure, potentially there are better GMs, but the names that keep getting thrown around are terrible. DePodesta? Hendry has had more success than Depodesta. I was responding to the first question. I don't care much about hiring someone with a consistent track record as a GM. I want someone I think will do well. Your last sentence is only correct in that Hendry has had 5 years and DePo had 2. The success of the LAD in the year of DePo was fired was mostly his team. DePo made some very good moves for the Dodgers. His firing was stupid - his replacement is much worse.

First name that comes to mind is Paul DePodesta. Maybe he can get his old team to give up some of those young players like Kemp, Billingsley, Loney, etc that are such trouble makers.

American League Divisional Series; Red Sox Indians National League Divisional Series; Cubs Rockies American League Championship Series; Red Sox National League Championship Series; Cubs World Series; Cubs

then where the hell is Aramis supposed to bat when we get ARod? hmm, well Lee could bat 2nd with A-Rod 3rd. happy? only if Murton leads off why, when we'll have Jose Reyes to lead off? Alright, we'll just move Dunn to 6th then. Dunn should always bat #2 So, just to be clear, we're looking at: Reyes - SS Lee - 1B ARod - 2B (not sure where else to go here) ARam - 3B Soriano - CF Dunn - LF Murton - RF Soto - C I'm not sure, but I'm hopeful we'd win more than 85 games next year w/ that lineup.

I think they do know better, but I think ESPN tells them they have to pick a team in a certain number of games, so they do it (at least one of these guys, maybe Neyer, as said as much in one of his chats). Some might enjoy it, some might think their predictions are all but guarantees, but I'm pretty sure a few of those guys only do it b/c they have to.

Jonah Keri is pretty good, I also like Bryant at times. I'm a little nervous about the Stark-Phillips-Caple contingent, but I think it's offset by Neyer, Law, and Gammons.

Now that's witty.

Heard it too, but don't have a link. As I recall, the prediction was that he's not long for CF.

Almost exactly my thoughts. The only quibble I have is I don't think Soriano is in LF b/c he demands to be there. I don't think he made a fuss about playing CF for a few games and I think he'd welcome a move to RF if Lou asked him to. But Lou (and Hendry?) think Soriano's production will fall off if he doesn't hit leadoff and play LF. I think they're wrong and I think it's costing us runs (in terms of (a) having him lead-off and not maximize those XBH and putting fewer guys on base for Lee & ARam, and (b) forcing us to play JJ, Floyd, Murton, Monroe, Pie either out of position or when they shouldn't have been in at all). Given Murton's torrid 2nd half, I'd love to see Murton, Pie, Soriano from LF to RF next season, but I won't be holding my breath. If he doesn't clear a .900 OPS with a sub-.340 OBP in the lead-off spot and plays LF and misses 28 games every year, I'll be even less happy about this signing than I was when it happened.

Lots of people, but selfishly, it'd be a great slightly early 30th birthday present.

Murton and DeRosa > Theriot and DeRosa Yes, bumping Murton to keep Theriot in the lineup at 2B is a very bad idea. Thank you. I know it's an insignificant detail, given the impossibility of signing Rodriguez, but whenever people suggest moving Theriot to 2B, where his value is minimized, in order to keep Murton, who is a decent hitter, out of the lineup, I cringe. It's just such a bad idea. And Murton's been on absolute fire the last 2 months, posting an OPS of .920 and .948, respectively. Meanwhile, Theriot has sucked (.668 and .561) in each of the last 2 months, with an OBP barely above .300. But people are striving to keep Theriot (who will be 28 at the end of Dec) in the lineup over Murton (who turns 26 next month). Theriot's defense is not great enough to justify his bat in the lineup at 2B and probably not even SS. Those number aren't much better than Cedeno's last year (when he was just 23) and people were calling for Ronny's head. Theriot had a great month or so earlier in the year when we were struggling and those stats are keeping his season stats up, but he's killing us the last 2 months.