Tracer Bullet

I used to drink a ton of pop, but I rarely do anymore...unless it has some Jack mixed in.

Look beyond the last 3 months. Wright's significantly better (than ARam) in each of the last 3 seasons. I still don't see how anyone can say they are "close." Wright: 05: .912 06: .912 07: .963 08: .841 Ramirez: 05: .926 06: .912 07: .915 08: .934 I'd say they're extremely close offensively. I'd call it a wash. I don't know how good Wright is defensively, but if Aramis is better like people are saying, then I'd give the nod to him for overall better 3B. EqA Wright: .313 .311 .337 .300 ARam: .301 .295 .300 .315 One major flaw of OPS is the equal weight in OBP and SLG. Wright's huge advantage in OBP and the fact that he steals bases so effectively, esp the last 2 years, shifts the balance significantly in his favor. I don't know what the OP meant by "better" - who is better this season, who has been better, who would you rather have for the next year, next 5 years, next 10 years. But the answer to almost all of those questions (except who's been better this year) is Wright. thank you. OPS is not a great stat to use to compare the offensive value of two players. you also have to take into account that shea is a pitcher's park, whereas wrigley is a hitter's park. if ARam's patience has indeed made a Great Leap Forward, then they're pretty darn close as far as value. but overall i'd have to give the edge to wright, which is no big insult to ARam. one interesting question to ask is, what are ARam's chances at making the Hall of Fame? ARam's going to need several more very good years to get to the Hall, I think. A few great post-season performances would probably help in the voters' eyes.

Look beyond the last 3 months. Wright's significantly better (than ARam) in each of the last 3 seasons. I still don't see how anyone can say they are "close." Wright: 05: .912 06: .912 07: .963 08: .841 Ramirez: 05: .926 06: .912 07: .915 08: .934 I'd say they're extremely close offensively. I'd call it a wash. I don't know how good Wright is defensively, but if Aramis is better like people are saying, then I'd give the nod to him for overall better 3B. EqA Wright: .313 .311 .337 .300 ARam: .301 .295 .300 .315 One major flaw of OPS is the equal weight in OBP and SLG. Wright's huge advantage in OBP and the fact that he steals bases so effectively, esp the last 2 years, shifts the balance significantly in his favor. I don't know what the OP meant by "better" - who is better this season, who has been better, who would you rather have for the next year, next 5 years, next 10 years. But the answer to almost all of those questions (except who's been better this year) is Wright. Actually the answer to all but the next 10 years is Arod (he will play most likely just as well as Wright if not a little better and from an owners standpoint will make you loads as he chases the record) Um, if the question, as it was pretty clear set from the exchange quoted, is ARam or Wright, the answer actually isn't ARod.

Look beyond the last 3 months. Wright's significantly better (than ARam) in each of the last 3 seasons. I still don't see how anyone can say they are "close." Wright: 05: .912 06: .912 07: .963 08: .841 Ramirez: 05: .926 06: .912 07: .915 08: .934 I'd say they're extremely close offensively. I'd call it a wash. I don't know how good Wright is defensively, but if Aramis is better like people are saying, then I'd give the nod to him for overall better 3B. EqA Wright: .313 .311 .337 .300 ARam: .301 .295 .300 .315 One major flaw of OPS is the equal weight in OBP and SLG. Wright's huge advantage in OBP and the fact that he steals bases so effectively, esp the last 2 years, shifts the balance significantly in his favor. I don't know what the OP meant by "better" - who is better this season, who has been better, who would you rather have for the next year, next 5 years, next 10 years. But the answer to almost all of those questions (except who's been better this year) is Wright.

Look beyond the last 3 months. Wright's significantly better (than ARam) in each of the last 3 seasons. I still don't see how anyone can say they are "close."

Wait, ARam's a better offensive player than David Wright? Even setting aside the fact that Wright's 5 years younger, can someone explain that to me?

You should complain about Lee and ARam so more. Immediate results. ETA: my problem with Lou...well, one of my problems with Lou, is his wasting our short bench by bringing in Micah to pitch hit and taking him out for another hitter when the other manager goes to the pen. If he's so terrible against LHP, don't bring him in unless the manager has just put in a new RHP.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Danks I think it was more of a reference to the last time a white sox pitcher tried calling out the cubs (and greg maddux) and maddux replied with "Who's Mark Burhle?" Hoped most people would catch that.

JP sounds like a guy who can feel how warm his seat is. JP, if your phone rings at 3am, I wouldn't answer.

Who's John Danks?

Seems fluky though, doesn't it? No huge splits his last couple years other than this one.

make no mistake, people were doing that in April overreacting to his hot stretch of hitting People saw a guy with an OPS over .900 in each of his last 2 seasons in AAA and were excited that he performed well at the majors (esp with the patience he showed). I'd be surprised if anyone really thought Cedeno was going to OPS 1.000 for long. I know some people were excited that he was performing in the very narrow window he was given - I was one of them. But that's probably b/c some of us thought production in your few opportunities would lead to more opportunities. Didn't turn out that way.

How anyone can identify and analyze trends when a guy plays 2 games a week is beyond me. Cedeno wasn't likely to hit like he did in April where he had a stretch of 10 days or so playing almost every day. But I don't think you can analyze his numbers over the last 2 months where he has to pick splinters out of his butt before each AB and draw any real conclusions.

Let's see a pic of the girl you're sleeping with every night. don't be an ass

Either this girl is 100 times more attractive in person or every woman you guys have ever seen is ugly.

the one with the man-hands and mustache?

Was that really necessary? If you aren't going to respond to the points he made, then there's no need to say anything. I responded to each and every point he made. They are all wrong. Then say why instead of being snide. The condesenscion(boy do I miss my auto-spellcheck when I'm at work) is unnecessary. Wait a minute - you don't like CubinNY's tone, but the tone of the post he was responding too, calling everyone who takes issue with Lou a whiner, is ok? Seems to me he invited a snide response with the tone of his message.

It's not. Some people are just hell-bent on seeing him fail. Hell-bent on seeing him fail? 137 110 88 74 Those are his OPS+ for the last 4 years, including this partial season, aka, ages 35-38. And while his splits have been really good, even just against RHP last year he sucked (.755 OPS). So maybe people aren't hell-bent on seeing him fail, but they're looking at a 38 year old, once great hitter, with some pretty strong evidence to suggest he's in a quick decline. Or maybe they're biased against Cardinals and sticking to their irrational belief that an old player whose declined sharply over 3 seasons is more likely to continue that decline than suddenly bounce back b/c he joined the Cubs. I don't like Jim Edmonds. I want him to OPS 1.000 with the Cubs, but I don't like him. I'm not expecting his brief resurgence to continue, but not b/c I hate him - b/c his numbers over the past few seasons seem to indicate that it's likely.

Hendry knows when to hold 'em.

Wife and I were driving this weekend and passed a Harley going the other way. Guy had the Eyre facial hair going. In the wind, it looked like a live squirrel was clinging to his face and shaking wildly.

I can't tell you how many times we've gotten late in a ball game and I've thought "if only we had a fifth second basemen..."

Many players are way under their April performance - I think discounting some guys' abilities to make up for Soriano's .880 OPS when they're slumping is fair. And I didn't say you suggested Soriano's performance was irrelevant. But dextermorgan did, which was what I was referring to.

I am taking into account context. I think you're failing to. The Cubs were fine scoring runs without Soriano several weeks ago. They had players doing very well. Some of those players have cooled considerably - Lee, Soto, Theriot are all way down from their April numbers, ARam is off a little and even Fukudome is down a tick. They might turn it around now, but the point is, they were clicking and the team was winning while getting nothing from Soriano. So replacing him with Cedeno (who was red hot for about 8 games) may have actually helped the team. Now Soriano's on fire when many of our best hitters were slumping when he got injured. So he was carrying more offensive weight (which now must be replaced). Of course you have to consider context. The context before was slumping Soriano, smoking team. Now it's hot streak Soriano and slumping team.

Probably b/c he was playing like crap when he went on the DL before, so it was unlikely his replacement couldn't match his .577 OPS. That doesn't really make any sense, unless you're suggesting the mental impact will play a big role. What Soriano was doing at the time of his 2 injuries is irrelevant when discussing how they'll be without him. They'll be playing with the same team they played with last time he got injured, the same team they did fine with. Are you serious? A player's performance is irrelevant as to how the team will do without him? You realize that players don't perform at the exact same level throughout the season, right? You'e missing the point. I'm not talking about how Soriano was playing at the time of the injury, because it's irrelevcant (other than the fact that mentally it feels worse). What Soriano was doing at the time of each injury doesn't change anything about the team that they will put on the field in his absence. A team minus a red hot Soriano is exactly the same as a team minus an ice cold Soriano. I'm not sure how much more I can lay this out for you, because it seems like I'm being pretty clear. I understand your point. I just think you're wrong. If you have to replace a guy putting up a .900 OPS and your bench doesn't contain anyone that good, you're not likely to sustain the success you had when that guy gets injured. If you have to replace a guy with a .600 OPS and your bench has a lot of guys that are playing better than that, you're likely to sustain your success, if not improve. Soriano will likely end up with a .900 OPS at the end of the year, but he started the year terribly cold. So we didn't miss his bat b/c we weren't getting anything from him anyway. Now, we'll more likely miss his bat b/c he was really hot and some guys that were hot before have cooled. I'm not sure how much more I can lay this out for you... That's an interesting use of logic, and taking it further one could say that Soriano's .900 OPS could be replaced by a bench player with a .600 OPS, and one of the starters who had a bad month while Soriano was hot (D Lee who's .avg and .obp dropped nearly 100 points since Soriano's return) would make up for the slack, putting up well over the numbers they had for the last month. Why can't the guys who were hot when he was out make up for the slack? Soriano is one the streakiest players on the team, so it's very plausible that he was going to cool off for a period soon anyways, thus negating your reasoning in the first place. Obviously you can't know how the team is going to play without him. Some players might step up to cover his production, he might have been on the verge of a decline, etc. But to suggest that Soriano's performance is irrelevant to the discussion of how the team will do seems odd to me.

Probably b/c he was playing like crap when he went on the DL before, so it was unlikely his replacement couldn't match his .577 OPS. That doesn't really make any sense, unless you're suggesting the mental impact will play a big role. What Soriano was doing at the time of his 2 injuries is irrelevant when discussing how they'll be without him. They'll be playing with the same team they played with last time he got injured, the same team they did fine with. Are you serious? A player's performance is irrelevant as to how the team will do without him? You realize that players don't perform at the exact same level throughout the season, right? You'e missing the point. I'm not talking about how Soriano was playing at the time of the injury, because it's irrelevcant (other than the fact that mentally it feels worse). What Soriano was doing at the time of each injury doesn't change anything about the team that they will put on the field in his absence. A team minus a red hot Soriano is exactly the same as a team minus an ice cold Soriano. I'm not sure how much more I can lay this out for you, because it seems like I'm being pretty clear. I understand your point. I just think you're wrong. If you have to replace a guy putting up a .900 OPS and your bench doesn't contain anyone that good, you're not likely to sustain the success you had when that guy gets injured. If you have to replace a guy with a .600 OPS and your bench has a lot of guys that are playing better than that, you're likely to sustain your success, if not improve. Soriano will likely end up with a .900 OPS at the end of the year, but he started the year terribly cold. So we didn't miss his bat b/c we weren't getting anything from him anyway. Now, we'll more likely miss his bat b/c he was really hot and some guys that were hot before have cooled. I'm not sure how much more I can lay this out for you...