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Tracer Bullet

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Everything posted by Tracer Bullet

  1. Tracer Bullet
    i don't think there's a good chance of that at all. except for the broken wrist year, lee has been very durable, and ramirez has missed an average of 16 games the last 3 seasons. there's a good chance that a couple of those guys will miss significant time, but really it's pretty unlikely that lee and ramirez miss a significant chunk of the season. You're fighting the hypo. The question is whether ARam, Bradley, and Soriano are all healthy. The assumption is that Lee isn't healthy. So, in the hypo that's been presented, which assumes Lee isn't healthy, Soccer10k says we'll still be fine "if ARam, Bradley, Soriano, and Soto are healthy." I don't think it's unreasonable to expect one or more of ARam, Bradley, and Soriano to be out at the same time as our hypothetically injured Lee. ETA - I missed the ARam thing the first time through. I noticed you included his '06 season (in which he missed 5 games), but conveniently stopped short of including his first '05 campaign, in which he missed 39. In his 5 full years with the Cubs, he's missed 17, 39, 5, 30, and 13. ARam's a great player, but how much are you willing to wager that he'll play more than 145 games this year? He's had plenty of health issues, just like Bradley and Soriano.
  2. Tracer Bullet
    let's get back to appreaciating milton bradley
  3. Tracer Bullet
    do i really need to tell you why i think guys like milton bradley will get hurt? We weren't talking about Milton Bradley or Alfonso Soriano or anyone on the pitching staff like Rich Harden or Carlos Zambrano or any other player/position on the roster. We were specifically talking about first base, Derrek Lee and Micah Hoffpauir. Obviously other guys could and probably will get hurt, but you specifically singled out 1B/Lee/Hoffpauir and said if Hoffpauir is our starting 1B man (i.e. Lee is hurt) we're screwed. If you wanted to bring other players into the mix, you should have added that. Not to mention that even if Lee gets hurt, it's not a lock that he's hurt at the same time as anyone else on the team. The health of Derrek Lee isn't going to make our break our season. Actually, you said we'd be fine without Lee, if ARam, Bradley, and Soriano are all healthy. There's a good chance that each of those players will miss a significant chunk of the season, so it's fair to not accept your premise.
  4. Tracer Bullet
    Gaudin's got several years of solid production in MLB. What does Patton have? ST numbers?
  5. Tracer Bullet
    Are we 100% sure the reasons for the decision? I have seen some of the comments from the parties involved. But I don't think we can be sure that Gregg wasn't the heavy favorite coming in. Lou may realize that Marmol is at least as valuable in the role he played last year and was paying lip service to the "competition."
  6. Tracer Bullet
    He homered twice against us today just to rub it in.
  7. Tracer Bullet
    From Bruce's blog, http://blogs.dailyherald.com/node/1712, 5 more guys gone, including So and German.
  8. Tracer Bullet
    I think people are going to be really, unpleasantly surprised about his inability to be an everyday player by about mid-June. Isn't he going to be in a pretty strict platoon? Or are you saying he won't even been good enough playing against almost solely RHP? [i'm not necessarily disagreeing, just trying to clarify]
  9. Tracer Bullet
    I really can't imagine this decision having that much of a financial impact on him. I realize how contracts these days are working, but if he takes a hit because he is not recording saves, he needs a new agent. If he stays healthy and effective until free agency, I expect him to get a huge contract regardless of saves. it'll likely cost him money in his arbitration years though. i know the cubs never go before an arbitrator, but the number the player would get absolutely plays a role in the negotiations. saves would absolutely be something an arbitrator would consider when selecting a salary. Marmol also seems pissed. "Disappointed, yeah, of course it is," Marmol said of the situation, which he seemed to think was preordained. "I can't control this." Marmol pitched for the Dominican Republic in the WBC but said he didn't feel that didn't make any difference. "They knew what (they were going) to do before I got here," he said. "That's what I said when I said it was not 'competition.'"
  10. Tracer Bullet
    If Sandoval is good enough to earn his Y! rankings (top 20 at 1B and 3B), he'd give you the most production of any of the other Cs you listed. I like Shoppach, but Sandoval should be significantly better. Besides, in a 10-team league, there should be enough Cs available to pick one up if your guy sucks.
  11. Tracer Bullet
    The top C's available for my bench are Dioner Navarro, Pablo Sandoval, Kelly Shoppach,Yadier Molina, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia. I'd prefer to keep Wieters, even if on the bench. Suggestion? I'd pick up Sandoval, then Navarro or Shoppach and drop Napoli. Keep Wieters on the bench.
  12. Tracer Bullet
    if you don't know what Fukudome is going to do, how can you possibly know what Fontenot will do?
  13. Tracer Bullet
    I think Zito was a joke to see if someone would take him. There was a lot of driving up prices by people who didn't really want players.
  14. Tracer Bullet
    There's a link to Tango Tiger's article on JP at Dodger Blues, which is outstanding. http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/how_far_would_juan_pierre_have_to_defer_his_contract/
  15. Tracer Bullet
    really? How many BS to most closers have in a year? Certainly not 1 a week. I'm guessing most teams are going to tie at 0 for BS most weeks whether they have 0 closers or 2/3.
  16. Tracer Bullet
    Do you mean you had a plan of $/position? Like "I'm going to spend $20 on my 1B, $25 on my top SP, no more than $8 on 2 more SPs, $20 on one closer, $5 on the other, etc." I really liked the auction style, but I'm trying to figure out a better strategy for the next time around. Yeah. It was something like this: C - 15 1B - 15 2B - 30 3B - 30 SS - 35 OF - 20 OF - 10 OF - 5 OF - 3 OF - 3 UT - 2 All 3 BN - 2 each SP - 25 SP 2-6 - 5 each RP - 20 RP - 5 P - 3 It worked well for me, although I think I got lucky that I was able to fill in most of my rotation and outfield for less than my budgeted amount. Thanks. That makes sense. I didn't prepare b/c I didn't have time and didn't think I'd be able to make the draft anyway. I was surprised how many guys could be had for under $3 (I got 9 players for $3 or less). Let alone the quality left when people were filling out their rosters for $1 each. I guess a 10-team league will do that. Though, I do wonder how much the group's collective inexperience led to overpaying early and steals later (Soria going for $19 while K-Rod went for $7 as a prime example).
  17. Tracer Bullet
    Do you mean you had a plan of $/position? Like "I'm going to spend $20 on my 1B, $25 on my top SP, no more than $8 on 2 more SPs, $20 on one closer, $5 on the other, etc." I really liked the auction style, but I'm trying to figure out a better strategy for the next time around.
  18. Tracer Bullet
    "The last couple years, I've kind of learned to pace myself a little more," he said. "Velocity's not the most important thing; it's location, change of speeds. Yeah, it's nice to put up that big number (oh, around 100 mph, I think) once in awhile. It'll be there. I'm happy with low-90s in spring training. That's good for me." http://blogs.dailyherald.com/node/1695
  19. Tracer Bullet
    fielding %? what's with people using weird stats in their fantasy leagues? I can understand wanting to get away from the normal 5x5 as it overvalues some skills and undervalues others. But fielding %?
  20. Tracer Bullet
    It was a lot of fun. But it was my first auction draft and I hadn't the foggiest idea what I was doing. And I missed the first 10 minutes or so and then got interrupted by my son too. I still like my team, though there's a few guys I wish I didn't end up with and a few I missed out on by being late. Only takes one auction to realize you need to keep some money for the end when the real steals happen (K-Rod went for like $7 at the end when Motte went for $4 early, e.g.). C - Soto 1B - Teixeira 2B - Kinsler 3B - Davis SS - Tulo MI - Andrus CI - Votto OF - Kemp OF - Rios OF - J Upton OF - Bruce OF - Burrell Util - Crisp B - Hermida, Fontenot, Cruz P - Peavy P - Billingsley P - Lilly P - Baker P - Wainwright P - Kuroda P - Lyon P - Gregg P - Ziegler
  21. Tracer Bullet
    I did the same thing. A little frustrating hitting the bid button at the exact time as someone else and accidentally bidding 1 more than you want. That's how I ended up with Theriot and Joba. PS, if anyone needs some pitching let me know. Clayton Kershaw Felix Hernandez Francisco Liriano Scott Kazmir Ryan Dempster Chris Carpenter Joba Chamberlain George Sherrill Huston Street That's how I ended up with one or two guys too. I think I tried to bid $6 or $7 on Lilly and got him for $9. That was a little unsettling.
  22. Tracer Bullet
    This statement is horribly overbroad and you know it, but refuse to back down from it. It's illogical and completely unreasonable to state as an absolute that anyone that has ever gotten hurt "to the point of not being able to perform you job" while drinking has a drinking problem.
  23. Tracer Bullet
    I will admit I was a little surprised to see Rob Neyer say the other day that Schilling was a sure fire HOF. Not that he would absolutely get in, but that he should. I haven't studied much of Schilling's career, but he seems haunted by low W totals. Not sure if the great post-season performance and the aura of the bloody sock will be enough to overcome it.
  24. Tracer Bullet
    I am thoroughly confused.
  25. Tracer Bullet
    like those of us that ended up with vance stealing our picks for $2 at the end b/c we were maxed out? it was a lot of fun. Glad I ended up being able to make the new draft time.
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