Tracer Bullet

If one team clearly had more viewers and fans buying tickets, you could argue that H2H, ranking, schedule don't matter. But that's just not the case here. I'm arguing that the perception of the bowl selection folks is all that matters, not any actual facts I know. And I'm arguing that your idea of what the selection committee perceives to be true isn't all that accurate.

If one team clearly had more viewers and fans buying tickets, you could argue that H2H, ranking, schedule don't matter. But that's just not the case here.

is that even really a debate? To the lay fan, PSU is leaps and bounds more well known of a program than Iowa. being well known and being something people want to watch aren't necessarily the same thing. PSU isn't Florida right now (winning 3 in the last 4 years), not USC (contending every year for 10 years - until this year), not Bama (historical program back in contention), Texas (huge school in the biggest football state in the country). PSU is a name program but they don't have anything to draw lay fans right now. Iowa may not either, but again, this is a neutral factor at best. Iowa isn't dazzling to watch, but they play great defense and got a lot of national media pub when they were charging out to 9-0.

I suppose. I guess if a bowl thinks more people would tune if for PSU than Iowa. Seems unlikely. Was it just this weekend I read some guy from the Orange Bowl saying no team travels like Hawkeye nation? I don't that's true, but I thought it was interesting. I'm not sure Penn State is enough of a name program any more to overcome the other factors. Maybe I underestimate the great deal of national media attention Penn State garners these days. But I don't think I am.

i really don't think oklahoma st matters. they have 2 losses in a mediocre conference and don't even sell out their own 60,000 seat stadium. iowa and penn st are clearly better options. Deserving or not, I think Penn State gets selected over Iowa for an at-large bid. on what basis? Iowa is ahead of them in the BCS standings (and isn't likely to be jumped since they're both done), won the H2H matchup, has more quality wins (both AZ and Wisconsin are better than any non-Iowa, non-OSU team PSU played, which is to say, Iowa has at least 3 quality wins to PSU's 0), and has fans that travel in droves (as does PSU, but this is a neutral factor, at best, for PSU). So again, on what possible basis? He said "deserving or not". Head to head, quality wins, etc. is pretty irrelevant in this discussion. Good news is that PSU won't travel more than Iowa. However there's the perception that PSU would deliver higher tv ratings than Iowa. You can debate how true that is or even how important that is, but it's not outlandish. I don't know. Iowa got a lot of pub this year and played OSU down to the wire. I'm not sure what PSU has that's such a tv draw this year. No big names, no Heisman candidates. Seems the choice is even on tv eyes and ticket sales, so I have a hard time seeing a BCS game picking the lower-ranked team that lost to the other team. It's pretty ridiculous if you ask me.

i really don't think oklahoma st matters. they have 2 losses in a mediocre conference and don't even sell out their own 60,000 seat stadium. iowa and penn st are clearly better options. Deserving or not, I think Penn State gets selected over Iowa for an at-large bid. on what basis? Iowa is ahead of them in the BCS standings (and isn't likely to be jumped since they're both done), won the H2H matchup, has more quality wins (both AZ and Wisconsin are better than any non-Iowa, non-OSU team PSU played, which is to say, Iowa has at least 3 quality wins to PSU's 0), and has fans that travel in droves (as does PSU, but this is a neutral factor, at best, for PSU). So again, on what possible basis?

Quinn's mad b/c that TD was only 4 yards. Killing his YPA

PSU's schedule is an embarrassment this year. They miss Wisconsin in the Big Ten, so the best team they beat is...Temple? MSU? How many of the computer polls that factor into the BCS don't even have them ranked in the top 25? I can't imagine a BCS bowl picking PSU over Iowa this year.

Is Castro's defense bad enough that his ceiling is Jeter?

Awful? No, the argument is whether he would have been fired in 2009 had Ty not screwed the program. Where he fits on the awesome to awful scale of college coaching is a pretty ridiculous argument to have here. Had I known my statement would set off this firestorm, I may not have made it. The fact that Ty's actions had lasting effects didn't seem controversial. How significant and whether Weis would have been successful enough to survive this year without Ty's work seems like an interesting argument. That Ty's work had some negative impact did not. I think to say that Ty's work doesnt have some sort of residual effect at this point is probably incorrect. But he has had 5 years now and seems to be stagnating instead of improving. Maybe so and that's the debate. He's already gone unless every one of the top 5 guys makes it known privately that they don't want the job. ND isn't going to offer to anyone they don't already know will accept. Some of Weis issues are his - he missed on some key defensive recruits early, esp DTs. Lack of upperclass DL is hurting badly now. He didn't build a great staff at the start. He didn't realize how much time you need to spend on fundamentals early. Those are issues you're going to have with a first time HC who hasn't coached in college in over a decade. I don't fault him for not going all out in practices - he could ill afford to lose any of the starters he had. He's worked hard and tried to fix his errors and I commend him for that. He's improved on recruiting. His coaching staff is very solid, though the Brown/Tenuta fit doesn't seem to work, Verducci, Hart, and Alford were great hires. But he's also played most of the year without his #1 RB, his #1 WR (as good as Tate is, and he's great, Floyd is better or was until he got hurt and came back playing tentative) and his QB, who is one of, if not the best in the country, has been hurt since the 3rd game. Would ND have beaten Michigan if Floyd wasn't hurt? Hard to say, but I think it's infinitely more likely that Floyd catches that 3rd down out that Goodman stopped short on. That first down ends the game. Would they have beaten Navy with their #1 RB and a fully healthy Floyd and Clausen, plus the starting RG? Maybe. USC is a much different game with Floyd and a healthy Clausen. Weis has to go. But it's not like every team that loses their #1 RB, #1 WR and plays with a hobbled QB plays their best football every week. I just would have liked to see Weis offense with a full compliment of healthy players for more than just Nevada. They had the potential to be a really special team. I don't think they would have seemed stagnant had the offense had those guys all year. Maybe, but I'd like to have seen it.

Navy enjoyed losing last year? Don't let facts get in the way of an argument with CubinNY. It's more fun to talk out of your ass.

Awful? No, the argument is whether he would have been fired in 2009 had Ty not screwed the program. Where he fits on the awesome to awful scale of college coaching is a pretty ridiculous argument to have here. Had I known my statement would set off this firestorm, I may not have made it. The fact that Ty's actions had lasting effects didn't seem controversial. How significant and whether Weis would have been successful enough to survive this year without Ty's work seems like an interesting argument. That Ty's work had some negative impact did not.

I'm sorry but that's a really weak defense. Every time a new coach takes over for a failed coach there is a carryover effect from the regime change. He's on the hot seat now because his team has lost 4 games in a year when many expected a BCS game and he doesn't have a signature impressive win. Claiming that he's currently suffering from Ty because a couple years ago he had to recruit while being on the hot seat just doesn't hold up. That's an excuse college coaches don't get. He's fired after Stanford b/c his teams haven't performed to expectations. I completely agree. He was on the hot seat (in the media if not reality) in 2007, months after taking the team to a second consecutive BCS game, b/c his predecessor tanked the program. He was on the hot seat because he lost 5 games in a row 10 months after getting absolutely destroyed in a BCS game his team had no business playing in. You make it sound like people just suddenly turned on him for no good reason. 9 freshman starters in 2007. Unable to field a full 2-deep. Fewer scholarship players on the team than any CFB team other than SMU during the "death penalty." The 2004 class (seniors in 2007) had six 2-star recruits. 6! I'd be interested to know if ND has signed a total of 6 2-star recruits in all of the non-Ty years combined. You don't think that had anything to do with the team's record? Weis should be hung for not being able to field a competitive team of freshmen and sophomores against the 24th toughest schedule? Are you just bored, jersey?

There are a lot of arguments. The basic argument is that Weis continues to suffer from Ty's tenure. That alone seems to make people uncomfortable. I don't know that Ty's performance cost Weis his job; I'm not sure Weis is ever going to be good enough to be a successful HC at a major program. But it was a contributing factor. Whether Weis would have lost it this year all on his own, I don't know. I suspect his job status this year would have depended much more on the perceived quality of available replacements than it does now.

they had momentum, I don't deny that. But I'm not sure how much of it was based on the ability of their QB to move the ball effectively down the field. I guess I don't trust him b/c it's pretty easy for a long pass to turn into a sack/fumble or a pick. An INT at that point doesn't have to be a pick-6. Any INT other than on a bomb is going to give OSU the ability to gain just 0-25 yards and kick the winning FG. And I have more trust with my QB in OT b/c I'm at the 25, have a solid kicker from inside 40 yards and I have a good defense. You can run the ball effectively in OT. With 50 seconds to go, OSU can come after the QB pretty hard. I just don't trust him to make good decisions/throws in that situation. Obviously, one of the things you can't have in OT is a 10-yard sack to take you out of FG range. Eh, I don't trust a freshman QB in that situation that much either, but I don't think the chances of OSU getting a turnover + getting in FG range are greater than the chances of Iowa getting in FG range. It's not a terrible decision to run out the clock, but I probably would have gone for it. With an inexperienced QB, I like the chances of getting a TD or FG from the 25 much more than I like the chances of trying to get 40+ yards in 50 seconds when the other side knows you're going to be throwing it on every down. except in the first scenario, the other team also gets a chance to score a td from the 25. in the second scenario they probably don't get the ball. Sure, that's the trade-off. And if I had, say, ND's defense rather than Iowa's, I'd be less inclined to take that chance. But Iowa's defense is great and seems to improve as the game goes on. It just looks like a disaster b/c they ran 3 plays and lost 15 yards or whatever to kill their chances of scoring in OT.

I'm making a fool of myself? Ironic that you mock Weis' arrogance. You told me his first year was Ty's players. I told you that key players, especially lineman, were Davie's players (those players were signed in '01, under Davie, and recruited in '01, by Davie; Ty came on 12/31/01). You ignore that completely and instead list the above. In his first year, most of the lines were Davie's recruits, including 3 OL that are (or were) in the NFL. Quinn was "Ty's recruit" in the sense that another recruits dad told Ty he really, really need to look at Quinn so he did and reluctantly gave him an offer. His 4th year was totally his team b/c there was a very small number of 5th years, which would have been Ty's recruits, if he had been recruiting at the end. Weis was unable to redshirt guys like Eric Olsen, Sam Young, etc, in '06 because there weren't enough bodies to fill out the roster. So not only does he have to play freshman and sophomores, he loses those guys for 2010. Seriously, I can't believe the basic math of football recruiting and eligibility makes it so hard to fathom that a guy, for example, recruiting 4 OL in 3 years would have a lasting impact.

I'm sorry but that's a really weak defense. Every time a new coach takes over for a failed coach there is a carryover effect from the regime change. He's on the hot seat now because his team has lost 4 games in a year when many expected a BCS game and he doesn't have a signature impressive win. Claiming that he's currently suffering from Ty because a couple years ago he had to recruit while being on the hot seat just doesn't hold up. That's an excuse college coaches don't get. He's fired after Stanford b/c his teams haven't performed to expectations. I completely agree. He was on the hot seat (in the media if not reality) in 2007, months after taking the team to a second consecutive BCS game, b/c his predecessor tanked the program.

Well the current offensive coordinator was brought in after being fired for doing a far worse job at less of a name football program. I'd be all for Weis as Bears O coordinator. Right, he's a step up from Turner, no question. But my point is, if he's fired from ND, he's not going to have a very high profile in Chicago, and if the Bears replace Turner, it's going to be as an olive branch to Chicago fans in the face of not being able to can Angelo and Smith. Would they really hire such a guy? Or would he take the job? I have my doubts about both. Also, I'm not sure Lovie and Charlie would work well together, given the talk of Weis's ego and Lovie's low key all for one one for all mentality. I don't know if they'd offer it. I hope they would. I'm not sure if he'd take it, but it largely depends, I imagine, on what else is out there. And while Charlie certainly had a huge ego in 2005, one thing he learned at ND is humility. He still has an ego, I'm sure. You can't be a HC in big time college sports without one. But I think he could easily step back into the role of OC, especially back in the NFL.

Okay, earlier in his tenure, but what does that have to do with the team that is out there now? A fair amount, really. The culture changed pretty significantly under Ty. And the damage from his lack of recruiting has harmed the program (and Weis). Weis went to 2 BCS games in his first 2 years and yet there has been talk of his imminent firing since before the end of his third year. He's had a "hot seat" continuously since. And players are constantly asked about it during media sessions (and I'm sure informally as well). You think they got back from Stanford in '07 and immediately turned the page. "Whew, glad that's over. Can't wait for spring practice. We're going to be awesome next year!" The biggest selling point in recruiting was (and sort of had to be) in essence: "Look how terrible this team is. You could come here and help us immediately b/c our current players suck." Ironically, that (and Weis' allegedly imminent firing) were the biggest shots fired by other coaches in negative recruiting too. It's not rocket science that a disaster season has effects long after the end of the season. Weis has to go. I said that before in this thread. But he's suffered greatly for Ty's short comings. I'm surprised that's really controversial. Actually, I shouldn't say that, I'm not really surprised.

Okay, earlier in his tenure, but what does that have to do with the team that is out there now? It's a BS argument. Weis had his best seasons with Ty's recruits. not knowing what you're talking about never seems to bother you. Many (most?) of the key players on Weis' best team were actually Davie recruits.

Weis is paying for the laziness b/c the 2007 and 2008 teams still haunt him. His overall record was tanked by the '07 season. If you haven't really looked at how bad the depth was in spring 06-fall 08, you're probably underestimating Ty's laziness. This spring was the first time in 3 years that we had enough OL to have a full 2-deep. The team couldn't practice with 2 full sets of lineman b/c we didn't have them. Ty landed just 4 OL. And since ND doesn't use JC replacements to supplement their classes, they played 2 years way under the 85 man limit. Weis brought them back to the point of actually having to turn down 4-star players b/c there are too many that are interested in the program at a given position. That never happened under Ty. There's too much to try to explain it all and this isn't an ND board (in fact, more readers hate ND than not) so I don't want to bog it down. But the assertion that Weis' tenure wasn't heavily impacted by the severe damage that Ty did to the program is naive [expletive] that the media has been playing for years (aided in no small part by Ty implying that race was a factor in his firing). Recruiting is only one portion. A significant portion, but not everything. Ask UW fans how they feel about him.

Smart ND fans won't put Weis anywhere near Willingham or even Davie when they look back on the last 5 years. As jersey said, you're making his point. But I don't agree with his reasoning. You're making his point by claiming Weis was some terrible coach when he took the team to a bowl game, including 2 BCS games, in 4/5 years and ended the damn bowl drought (I could give a rip who they played). He took over a program that Ty had run into the ground and proved you can recruit great players to ND and turn them into pro players. Clausen, Tate, Floyd, etc are only going to strengthen that reputation. Weis has made his share of mistakes and will probably never be a great head coach, but he's still paying for Ty's lazy ass. I hope he's the OC for the Bears next year. Weis has had more than enough time to make up for the mistakes Willingham made. His teams are getting worse the farther he's getting away from the Ty years and recruits. Besides, Charlie already told us it didn't matter who the players were. He would out X and O everyone. In '02 Ty was the savior was bringing ND and all their fans back to glory. Then he sucked and Charlie was the new savior. Now he sucks and the next guy will be. Then if he doesn't they'll still all insist it's an elite job and they're just stuck with another bad coach. If you don't know anything about either situation and just hate ND, just say so and we'll move on. Spouting ignorant BS that ESPN feeds you isn't good for anyone. Tell me what I don't know. I know that Weiss has had 4.5 recruiting classes come in. He was 19-6 his first two years playing primarily with players who were already there when he took over. He's 16-19 in the 3 seasons since when he's had to lean on the players he has recruited. It's his 5th [expletive] year and you're still blaming Willingham. Come on. He has a top 5 QB and top 5 college WR (two of them in top 10 when Floyd has been healthy) and barely has a top 40 team this year. He was the one who was over the top arrogant and basically saying he would outcoach everyone on national tv. I didn't meet many ND fans who didn't eat it all up and after the 2nd BCS game were all loving him up. Now the majority want him out and are like Andy saying their problems are based on hiring all bad coaches. It will be the same refrain if the next guy doesn't work out also. I started writing a response, but it's not worth it. You don't like ND and don't care so why waste the time.

Smart ND fans won't put Weis anywhere near Willingham or even Davie when they look back on the last 5 years. As jersey said, you're making his point. But I don't agree with his reasoning. You're making his point by claiming Weis was some terrible coach when he took the team to a bowl game, including 2 BCS games, in 4/5 years and ended the damn bowl drought (I could give a rip who they played). He took over a program that Ty had run into the ground and proved you can recruit great players to ND and turn them into pro players. Clausen, Tate, Floyd, etc are only going to strengthen that reputation. Weis has made his share of mistakes and will probably never be a great head coach, but he's still paying for Ty's lazy ass. I hope he's the OC for the Bears next year. Weis has had more than enough time to make up for the mistakes Willingham made. His teams are getting worse the farther he's getting away from the Ty years and recruits. Besides, Charlie already told us it didn't matter who the players were. He would out X and O everyone. In '02 Ty was the savior was bringing ND and all their fans back to glory. Then he sucked and Charlie was the new savior. Now he sucks and the next guy will be. Then if he doesn't they'll still all insist it's an elite job and they're just stuck with another bad coach. If you don't know anything about either situation and just hate ND, just say so and we'll move on. Spouting ignorant BS that ESPN feeds you isn't good for anyone.

I think you are revealing why it's considered a bad job, more than defending it. Isn't the whole problem about everybody living in the past? How the coaches of the distant past are remembered doesn't really affect the status of the job right now. It's got a wealth of talent, a more manageable schedule than when Holtz left, great facilities, incredible alumni support, history, tradition, and national media attention. If you have enough ego to be a head coach at a big time program, the memory of Leahy, Ara, and Rockne isn't going to scare you away. You're going to take the job in the hopes of being the next statue erected on campus (in 100 years b/c it takes them for-damn-ever to get around to that crap).

You are dreaming. It's the same job as it was when Lou Holtz left. It's a terrible job with high expectations and very little chance of success. Any coach who's at a state flagship institution like OU knows they have it better than whomever is coaching ND. The only thing that can attract Stoops or Meyer would be lots and lots of money and stroking their already massive self importance. I'm dreaming? Stoops allegedly has interest and I said I've love to have him as the coach at ND. It's not like I'm having t-shirts printed up or something. The job may be the same as it was when Holtz left, but I didn't say anything about that. Only that it's a much better job than it was in '04 when Ty left with 2 holes in the '03/'04 recruiting classes. Of the 14 non-interim head coaches at ND starting with Jesse Harper, 5 are now remembered as unqualified successes and pretty well revered in South Bend (Knute, Leahy, Parseghian, Devine, Holtz), Harper is well-remembered largely because he coached Rockne and put the wheels in motion for the Irish to become a power and 2 others (Layden and Brennan) were pretty solid coaches whose only fault was coming too soon after legends had left. Hunk Anderson won 63 percent of his games over 3 years. The only four in the bunch that are remembered with overt negativity are Faust, Davie, Willingham and ostensibly Weis. That doesn't seem like a job with no chance of success to me. The failure of Notre Dame coaches has more to do with the people hiring them than the coaches themselves (meaning these are guys that shouldn't have been put into a position like ND to begin with). I don't think it's a coincidence that only 1 of the first 3 was ever hired at a major program again (Ty running UW into the ground), and it's probably a safe bet that Weis won't get another college job. Smart ND fans won't put Weis anywhere near Willingham or even Davie when they look back on the last 5 years. As jersey said, you're making his point. But I don't agree with his reasoning. You're making his point by claiming Weis was some terrible coach when he took the team to a bowl game, including 2 BCS games, in 4/5 years and ended the damn bowl drought (I could give a rip who they played). He took over a program that Ty had run into the ground and proved you can recruit great players to ND and turn them into pro players. Clausen, Tate, Floyd, etc are only going to strengthen that reputation. Weis has made his share of mistakes and will probably never be a great head coach, but he's still paying for Ty's lazy ass. I hope he's the OC for the Bears next year.