craig

I want names..... I'd guess CJ/draft pick in top 50, PJ and one of Zy/Black/Blackburn/Skulina/other draft pick in the last spot. That is totally plausible. If you draft a pitcher at #4, he's pretty safe to rank top-50, I'd think. Your layout works very well, and doesn't seem that much of a reach at all. Vizcaino's another candidate for top-100, if he ends up healthy and impressive, but the Cubs limit his work and shut him down before he racks up enough big-league service to become ineligible.

I voted Z, Hendricks, and Vizcaino in no particular order (as I have for the last two rounds). But I view Blackburn and Black in that same pool. Hendricks/Blackburn: nice contrast in proven success versus future possibility. I like them both, a lot. That guys like that, and others of comparable value, can be falling in our 12-16 range is very encouraging. I think the pitching might look a lot more optimistic as he year goes by. Blackburn is 95 vs Hendricks is 88 is deceptive. That's using Blackburn's top versus Hendricks's working average. Blackburn may have hit 95 a number of times in his first two starts, but his average working velocity is normally lower, probably 89-92; and Hendricks can hit 92 at times, he just doesn't work there often. I think this also touches on Blackburn versus Underwood. Does Underwood have a higher ceiling because he touched 98 twice? Maybe. But it's not like he's routinely throwing 98 and doing so for strikes. I think often the effective working velocity between some of these guys tends to be compressed. I am encouraged to hear that some scouting sources are apparently fairly buzzed on Blackburn. If he has gotten stronger and will continue to get enough stronger so that he can be routinely working 91-93 and popping some 95-96 change-of-pace fastballs at times, that combined with his curveball and his feel for pitching could make him a very, very good prospect. My guess when it all shakes out is that his fastball will not be unusually fast, but if he can throw with average speed while having above average location and an excellent breaking ball, even average velocity may be enough to give him well above-average big-league success.

Will be interesting, maybe they will. In Cubs case, the facilities in DSL are really good, and a lot of the instruction there. So maybe "staying" in DSL is not a disadvantage instruction-wise, whereas perhaps with some teams that would be true. But yeah, it would sure be fun to have them up in Mesa right away, in the box scores, getting Az Phil reports, etc., and poised so that if either did do well, they'd be on schedule for Boise next year and full-season as early as 2016. May depend a bit on their English and stuff, too.

Thanks much, Dave. Inconsistent guy with control problems and two shoulder histories is anything but safe. Still, all those K's don't come just by chance. If the shoulder is sound now and stays sound, he's an interesting wildcard that could be a pleasant surprise. Given the situation at the back of the Cubs rotation, it wouldn't shock to see him fairly quickly.

I assume he is just speculating/assuming. How would he know?

Thanks, david. Not sure badler will be right on either count, either guy starting in Mesa or Torres breaking out. Of course, pretty hard to get recognized as a big breakout guy if he,s in DSL, even were he to have a really good summer. Would sure be sweet if both of those guys flashed well this summer and looked like the real deals.

Does anybody have a really good read on Neil Ramirez's rather roller-coaster career? He's had some inconsistencies. 1. Hickory 09 vs 10. He was very wild year one (5.6 BB/9 in 2009) then reversed (2.4 BB/9 in 2010). 2. 98 innings in 2011. 140 the year before, 123 year following. What kind of injury did he have? 3. 2011-2012: After finishing 2010 in A-, and despite whatever injury he had in 2011, he still rocketed from A+ to AA to AAA in 2011, including a competitive 3.64 ERA with 86K/74IP in AAA. Looked like a man on the rise, at age 22. But then the next year he got demolished in the same AAA level, with 7.66 ERA and a horrendous 15 HR/74 innings. What changed? And then what unchanged last year? I don't know his story well at all.

I agree that it's a "mess" in that it's hard to sift them out. If there was a guy with both great talent who'd also showed great proven performance at a highish level, he'd not be under discussion here in the second ten. Anybody who's left here is still on the board because there are health concerns (Vizcaino, Olt, Ramirez); limited talent concerns (Hendricks); far distant and/or unproven concerns (Blackburn, Eloy, Rivero, Z); or known performance concerns (Cabrera, Olt, Ramirez.) I think "average"/"somewhat intriguing" is more negative than my perception. I think there are a number of guys who have the potential to be very good major leaguers. Guaranteed? Of course not. Probable? Of course not. HOF talent? Probably not. But Vizcaino had a really good arm and by account was throwing very hard again. It's no guarantee that any pitcher can come back, stay healthy, and have useful control. But there are plenty of very good big-leaguers who lost some time to surgery once. He could be very, very good. Rivero has a chance to be a very, very good reliever. If Blackburn can stay healthy, he'd seem to have a chance to become very good. Tseng. Zastrysny. Eloy projects to have really good power, perhaps Soler-esque. Seems to me there are still some names here who have a chance to combine both very good big-league talent with excellent big-league skill. Of course we don't know which ones, if any, will work out seriously well. But I think there is definitely some number of ceiling guys left.

I've got Hendricks, Z, Vizcaino, and Blackburn all in a bunch here. I left Blackburn off this time, but I like all four of them. Somehow I don't really believe in Ramirez. But I can see how some of you like him here. He throws enough K's and has enough velocity to be pretty good. I'm voting for Vizcaino, which may sound hypocritical, but I'm kind of concerned that Ramirez had shoulder problems. It may be paranoid, but I have the feeling that shoulder-problem guys don't often rest-rehab them to full health. May be a ticking time bomb. But, somebody is going to have to start games for the Cubs this year. If Rusin is #5, Hendricks and Ramirez seem like guys who might compete to get a shot So if Ramirez did come out just fine physically, and put in 6 weeks in Iowa that mirrored his performance at Frisco, he might be in the Cubs rotation by June.

Toonster's going to get all the I-told-you-so's if cabrera emerges as a useful big league reliever some day. He's not on my top-30, either. Funny thing with him, he gets the buzz for "big stuff", but he's pretty much always been easy to hit. His hits-per-inning rate, his HR rate, and his WHIP's have always been high. I know he's got a big-league are strength/velocity-wise, and he can throw some pitches that look very good at times. But I suspect a lot of results are based less on the best pitches a guy throws, but on the frequency and badness of the mistakes. But, you never know. A good pitching coach, a little confidence, a little tinkering, and maybe suddenly hitters can't tell his sliders from his fastballs anymore. Or maybe a guy adds a cutter and hitters can't guess movement and location anymore. Keep up the good fight for your guy, toonster. I do wonder if he has a good spring, if there's any chance a team will claim him? I assume he's pretty easy safe to waive down to Iowa, but you never know; sometimes teams will claim a good-armed guy like that.

Thanks, guys, good to remember. That would limit some of the discretionary AB's the manager has to allocate. Still, between 3B/1B/LF/DH, I think there should be enough for both Olt and Villanueva. If Lars Anderson or Szczur lose some 1B/LF AB's, that's just the way it goes.

I think it's very unlikely that Olt makes the big club, I think they'll want him to experience some AAA success and rebuilt some confidence, plus have some at least small sample of success above the AA level. (He's never done anything good above AA.) Otherwise, I completely agree. Between 3B, 1B, DH, and perhaps some LF, I think there are plenty of ways to get both Villanueva and Olt plenty of AB. And while I'm not as sold on Olt's defense as many posters are, I don't think his 3B defense is really the issue. If he shows he can hit, then he's a factor. So getting AB while DH-ing or playing 1B/LF will work just fine. And some time-sharing would not be forever. If he's doing great, then he'll get called up. If not, we won't care how few AB he gets. So having him start at Iowa won't badly impact Villanueva's usage. I don't really see much concern with Iowa being overloaded and short on AB's. Career minor leaguers like Rohan, Anderson, Watkins, Ha, Andreoli, they'll take what they get, or get sent to AA. If Vitters and Jackson both magically turn up healthy and good, terrific. Otherwise, the OF seems like just a grab-bag of whomever.

Thanks, Cal.

Somebody yesterday brought up Hendricks and randy Wells. I think they are quite different in many ways (personality, actual stuff, minor-league success….) But obviously those differences are incidental to the poster's point, I think: Wells was a guy with a somewhat limited arm and he didn't end up very successful. Hendricks might be another guy with a limited arm who is likewise not going to end up being very successful. Hendricks may very well be overwhelmed by the talent and power of big-leauge hitters. That said, though, I'm not sure that Wells really demonstrates the principle. Wells was quite good as a rookie, with a 3.05 ERA. I think his arm wasn't the same thereafter. I think he's more an example of how a guy with limited margin really can't afford any arm problems. But I'm not sure that had he stayed healthy, that he might not have been a reasonably useful pitcher. Wells is probably Hendricks-ish in that he had anti-awful HR rates when he had his successful rookie year, and they were still OK the next year when he was OK. But by his 3rd year, his HR's had elevated to 23HR/135 innings. Disaster level. At the minor-league level, Hendricks has had solidly limited HR-allowance rates, even though scouts don't seem to quite understand how or why. If he can keep his HR's at a modest rate, I expect he'll be good, since he's not going to walk a lot. But if he fails, I expect we'll see that his HR-rate will be way worse in majors than it's been in minors. Which seems to often happen with limited-stuff guys.

Yes, easy to get enthused about Blackburn from his early and late starts. And from the reports of some 95's. I don't remember that well; who else remembers the injury stuff? I thought it was more than oblique, and there was report of a forearm strain, or something very arm-specific. Am I wrong there? I hope so. If indeed his fastball reaches "plus plus" value, that would help a lot. I'd kind of had the thought that his fastball wasn't likely to be much faster than average, even if control and curveball might enable a guy with an average fastball to be well above average anyway. He'll definitely be one of the most interesting guys to watch this year.

I think Blackburn's ceiling is hard to gage right now. We heard reference to hitting 95 once, so that suggests high velocity ceiling, to go with the control and curveball and finesse. I admit I haven't gotten the sense that many scouts see his with power-fastball potential, though, even with physical maturation/projection. Plus he's going to have the injury concerns, I'm not entirely confident that a guy who had a sore arm this summer will just rest that back to 100%? Or is that crazy, and there is no arm-trouble carryover from one year to the next? But he's next on my list, at least the list I made up in October. I actually had all three of the 3B's behind a bunch of pitchers.

Absolutely, there are no sure things here. Either a guy has some injury worries (Olt, Viz), some talent limitations (Hendricks, Z?), little permanence record at meaningful levels (Candy, Z, Blackburn, Rivero, or at the far extreme Eloy…), or something. No perfect profiles here. But out of this pool I think there will eventually come some productive major leaguers, plural. I think it's fun to try to make our best guesses as to which guys it will be.

especially considering the arguments for Olt are "maybe he'll be right, and hit .220 for us! there's some value in that" while true, we know Hendricks is already right, and he'll probably have like a 4 ERA; there's value in that Heh heh, I like that. Olt is a huge Q. Candelario is a huge Q defensively, whether at 3B, 1B, or LF, and I'm not sure how great his power projects for LF/1B. Like them both, and hope they both work out great, but I'm going pitcher here. Vizcaino-Hendricks-Zastrysny! I don't see Vizcaino's Q's being any more questionable than Candelario's or Olt's. And Stryz is a ways out with little record, but he's almost certainly a lot closer than Candelario, so I don't see why the distance should be held against him. I'm also going lame and going with management: they had lots of discretionary draft money available, and a ton of time to prioritize pitchers with their 2nd pick…. and they loved Stryz. He's smart, he's got control, he changes speeds, he gets ground balls. I expect he's got a lot of untapped potential as well, not just a "finished" college guy. I think he'll utilize his cutter way more in the majors than he ever did in college.

Yeah, if Villa can indeed become a .750-.780 guy, then he's going to be a really good asset starter. Certainly his age and his May-on numbers would seem to suggest that he's got a shot. Absolutely a pretty solid prospect to be #9. Most guys with that age/power/stats distribution would seem to project very well. This will be a big year for him to see if his second-half offense will be sustainable, or if we'll see further age-based improvement. I always assume that the AA to AAA jump for a hitter should be an easy one, and going to PCL should result in HR/OPS jump. But the more experienced AAA pitchers tend to be better breaking ball guys, which can sometimes expose certain hitters. Is Villanueva a dead-pull fastball guy who might have some trouble? As good as his stats look, I'm not sure I get the sense that a lot of scouts believe strongly in him as a hitter or a HR guy. We shall see. His defense is super promising and he can make sick plays, I totally buy all that. But it's also reality that he made 24 errors, That's twice what most big-league regulars have in a full 6-month season. Pedro Alvarez is the only guy in the majors with more last year. Hopefully Villanueva will continue to make great plays but will get more consistent and error-free at the same time. We shall see. Nice prospect. A year ago, I wasn't too keen on either Villanueva or at all optimistic on Hendricks. Now both look surprisingly interesting, and that Dempster trade looks pretty nice.

Villanueva has gotten pretty strong support. Obviously the glove is an asset and nobody's worried. But with all his K's and his crummy OBP, are you guys pretty confident that he'll be an adequate hitter? Are you kind of looking to a .710-.760 OPS window guy in the majors, and seeing that as good value at spot 9/10? Or are you thinking that he'll improve enough so that he'll be able to withstand the big step up to the majors and be able to sustain or even improve on his .780's level minor-league OPS? Most guys drop a lot when facing the best pitching in the world, so I think it's pretty iffy whether he'll be able to sustain .700+ in the majors. But with his glove, and with the decline in offense league-wide, he could probably make a lot of millions if he can hit near .750. If he could do the .780's stuff that he's done in the minors, or even more, he'll be a really good asset player.

From Baez's Instagram 3 days ago http://i.imgur.com/dIlmLFU.png Translates roughly to: I was visiting my bro Kevin Encarnacion. He had an accident and burned 4% of his body. They have to operate. God willing he'll get past this soon. That sucks. Encarnacion is a pretty good prospect (fringe top 30/top 40 guy) and Frandy de la Rosa (second biggest Latin American bonus back in 2012) was in that accident too. And those may have been the least significant prospects involved. Mejia, the big tall pitcher who got $800K or whatever was also listed, and one of their top pitchers from their dominant DSL team. (I don't know whether that pitcher had scouting that matched his stats, but he might be a significant guy.)

Heh heh, I'm still adjusting to post-steroids context!

Yeah. They rushed him along so fast. 14 HR in AA isn't great, but 14 HR at age 21 in AA isn't far below normal for a guy who might project to 25 as a full-time big-leaguer. And 17 in 415 AB at 22 in AAA isn't amazing, but it isn't much off track from what a guy might do who ends up being a 25-HR big-leaguer at age 27 in 600 AB. I think the HR's have always been the question for Vitters. 25 HR might perhaps justify his defense, base running, personality, and walk rates. 15 HR, probably not. If the guy could stay healthy all season, I won't be surprised if he puts up some pretty impressive numbers at Iowa.

Makes sense to me. Different posters can vote as they like, and I won't have him for a while on my list. But for a guy who's going to become like Soler physically, I can see why some posters would rank a guy who might become great ahead of other guys. Guys whose physical limitations or performance record makes it obvious they will be limited players if they make it at all.

Vitters HR power potential is undersold, I think. I'm not a big fan and he's way further down on my list. But I think that he's physically strong enough to be a 25-HR guy, if he was playing regularly and was to have his hitting settle in.