craig

The game is at Clearwater. Does Robbie Aaron really go to all the road games, such that he is actually at the game watching? milb.com has that game messed up, showing no relievers and listing Perakslis as having pitched all 8 innings with 12K/0BB. So I'm wondering if Robbie really has it right, and Zastrysny really did go 7? Or whether he got pulled after 5, and it was relievers K'ing people in 6th and 7th? If Aaron's got it right, that would have Z with 25K/2BB/20.2IP since his injury/rest. That sounds interesting. Kind of fun having him and Paniagua starting to look interesting after tough starts. And to have Tseng and Rosscup both back.

Thanks, Cal. Looks like a potentially interesting pool of pitchers. Some of the pitchers may have an opportunity to experience a bit of what it's like to be a big-league pitcher for the Cubs: very little run support! That roster looks really bad for run production. Baez and that's it, right? Schwarber/Zagunis might help a bit later on.

3rd day picks: *14 college. (4 seniors, 9 juniors, 1 sophomore, the Purdue lefty). *4 J2 (junior college guys, 20 years old now or will turn so in July) *11 HS *1 Martarano, he's 19. My signing predictions: *1 of the one Martarano *1 of the eleven HS pick. Kevonte Mitchell, 13th round. *3 of the four JC picks *11 of the 11 college picks. #11 Jordan Brink is the only obvious iffy one here. Thinking: 1. Assuming they sign everybody in the top-10, signing 16 3rd-day guys would get them to 26 signings total. Last year they signed 25, so that seems to be a reasonable guess for how many college guys they needed to select for organizational roster-fill. 2. I assume if they figured they needed more guys for roster-fill, they'd have drafted a couple more college guys in the last dozen. They can always roster-fill with undrafted college FA's. 3. I hope I'm underestimating, and they sign a couple of extras. Some variables: Jordan Brink, college junior, pick #11. He generally seemed to have scouted as better than 11th round, and BA had him #164. I'd think he'd decline $100K slot, and should choose to go back and get into >$200K range next year. But, the Cubs knew what their budget situation was following friday. With the fourth pick on Saturday, they should have been going for the best value available, with value analysis factoring signability. If he's expecting $250 and they can't overslot, for example, I don't think they'd draft him their. So, probably either they talked to him and knew he is willing to sign for $100K slot, for whatever reason; or else they decided he was appealing enough that they'll just pull $100K from the Cease money in order to get Brink. If Cease really wants to sign, losing $100K Brink cash isn't likely to change the Cease decision. HS Austin Willis 18th round: After Kevonte Mitchell, who was known to be singable, the only HS picks prior to the #28-40 range were Austin Willis at 18 and Isaiah Gilliam at 23. McLeod has already said they don't expect to sign Gilliam. But 18 is a place in the draft where they typically draft guys they think they can sign. By Niggemeyer and following at 28-40, those are mostly just flyers, or Cease-backup draft-and-follow guys, or "scout's choice" range. Anybody top-250 taken in the 28-40 range, you really aren't expecting to sign them. But in 18th Willis is different. And he's not a BA top-500 guy, so it's not certain that he's expecting $300+ K. So I assume they maybe drafted him "early" because either they like him quite a bit and wanted to make sure he'd be there as Cease-failure backup, or else because they think he may be signable with overslot they may have available. J2 Zayas (round 29) and Petrino (round 39): Probably not realistic that both sign. Iffy whether either will. Zayas had some former reputation, and he lasted till the "flyer" rounds. He had enough reputation that signing for $100K slot might be dumb? Petrino as a 39th rounder, if he's good and slot-signable he'd not be lasting till 39th. Maybe he's just a roster-fill guy, so getting to go pro plus get $100K will be a no-brainer for him. But if he actually has ambitions and talent, probably take another try next time.

Thanks for nice summary, CubsWin. One correction, Graves is a 23-year-old college senior, so the Cubs will sign him if they want him.

Parks, "fantastic", Manual "killing it". I'll take the over on both of those $3.3 and $0.85, Dave. Will be fun to see it play out. I'll be surprised if they go below $4/$1. Kyle, I think it's exactly because the Cubs evaluated Schwarber/Stinnett as worthy that they won't get subslotted that much.

Yeah, I hope you're right. I expect that they have informal agreement numbers with both Sands and Steele, and are prepared to pay that. My thinking is that they got a number from Cease, that they aren't prepared or probably able to reach that even with the 5%, but that they are confident that he wants to sign, and that they can come close enough so that he will. Combined with the argument they'll make about what care and rehab they'll provide; and the observation that with his freshman year lost and his sophomore year a rehab year, he may not really have a great window for becoming a top-ten pick as a junior either. So I expect McLeod figures Cease will end up signing rather than going back to school. But yeah, my guess is that it will take all of the available moneys, including the 5%, to get the top 10. Note: it wouldn't shock me, really, if they go somewhat overslot on Norwood, too. BA's list had Norwood at 79, only two spots behind Cease. While he's a college junior, he's only 20 and won't turn 21 till Christmas Eve. Even without leverage, a senior taken in rounds 1-3 can make a lot more than $201, and I'm sure he and agent could envision him earning a spot in the 3rd round or higher if given another chance. Perhaps he lasted till the 7th because teams knew he wasn't signing for 5th/6th/7th round money, and was demanding 4th-round-or-better cash? I predict we'll be disappointed by how much the Cubs offer to Schwarber and Stinnett. It wouldn't surprise me if neither are more than 20% under slot. Hope I'm wrong, that we do save heaps on those guys, that Cease comes in easy, and Sands/Steele/Norwood aren't really all that pricey, and they end up with many hundreds of thousands to spend on overslot Day 3 guys. There are certainly some interesting projectable prospects selected on Day 3.

Zero is my over-under for 3rd day overslots. I doubt they have any discretionary overslot money to spend on 3rd-day guys. 1. Mitchell, Griggs, Martarano, and a lot of the college junior/seniors will sign for slot, presumably. 2. Presumably Brink is one college junior who won't. 3. I'm hoping one or two of the HS picks will sign for slot $100K plus college scholarship. I hope that but don't expect that, and if one or two do take it, it's hard to guess which might or why. I'm pretty sure they have their budget well detailed as they work through day 2. Pretty certain that they exhausted it. *My expectation is that Cease is too high as is. If he doesn't move, he'll go unsigned. But given his poor situation, needing to lose his freshman year to elbow, I imagine he'll compromise and sign. If he doesn't, the overslot assigned to him will get reallocated to a couple Day 3 targets.

Not sure that means he'll take that opportunity, so I don't assume that means he's signing. But, doesn't give the impression that signing would be very shocking either.

Last year Cubs had 2nd pick in 6th round with a slot of $267. No idea how much if any discretionary money we'll have after rounds 1-10 sign. But lets say there is some, whether that be $200K or $1000K. If you make $300K offers to a lot of these guys who were ranked somewhere in the 150-250 range, that range wouldn't be too far off from 5th round money. Offer 5th round money to a dozen decent top-250 prospects, and maybe one or two will accept and want to get started. Last year, for example, Clifton ended up settling for $375. If you had a million to play with, you could hypothetically sign 5 of these guys at 5th-round slot. Maybe a couple will take that, sign, and hopefully work out.

If some money gets left available, maybe somebody will decide he wants to go pro. But Heh, this is just a setup. In ten years, one or two of these guys will turn out really well… for other teams on next draft. And we'll look back and say, "Man, why didn't we sign THAT guy…."

"Major" overslot is a little vague. But I'd not be surprised to see them just keep chipping away at more limited overslot guys. Extra $400 Sands, extra $200 Steele, etc.. Keep getting projectable developmental guys, guys who might sign for 3rd/4th round money but might not sign for 6th-11th round money? Steele said he had a number of teams talk to him about 3rd round, 4th round, some maybe 2nd round. And he's definitely singable. He's another older guy, turns 19 next month.

Ryan Sweeney has started in-game rehab down there and Rosscup pitched well again. Glad to see Rosscup pitching, and well. 2nd outing? Not so nice for Conway and McNeill.

That makes a ton of sense, actually. Interesting.

@KevinDruley: #Cougars RHP Paul Blackburn exits w/ 2 on, 2 out in first and trailing, 2-0. Walked 3. Was fine physically, just lofty pitch count Does that make sense? He hit his pitch count within six batters? Or do they have some pitch-count-per-inning thing? the rest between innings re-oxygenates the muscle? After 30 pitches per inning you're out?

Blackburn pulled mid-first inning. He'd allowed a bunt single and three walks. He'd gotten a 7-day rest since his last start (10H/4IP in that one.) Tired arm, or worse?

Cervenka 5K in 2 innings. Lefties with good stuff don't grow in bunches. He's 29K/22IP thus far. I wonder how Rosscup is doing, and whether he'll be back and as good as ever, or will either need surgery or never be the same.

Yeah, would be interesting to give him a shot. Although Kane rotation seems kinda full. Nobody compelling it at Daytona, though.

Tennessee started some pitcher I didn't know was part of the organization. Did they sign him out of an Indy League, to help roster-fill with Pierce, Edwards, and Pineyro all injured, and Daytona having no pitching to call up?

Interesting. I don't doubt the essence of the piece, but he did play in the Cape last summer. So while the Cubs may not have played him after he signed at the deadline, it's not like the injury was so extreme that he couldn't play baseball at all.

Amlung's only previous start, I think, was when Paniagua was home in DR, right? Is he replacing Paniagua in the rotation, do you think? Or Tseng? Or Tseng hasn't pitched in 10 days. He was on a 6-day schedule, right?

I can't believe he's been at AA for so long, I don't understand. I'd love to see him jump AAA and go to the majors. His approach isn't going to get exploited by veteran minor leaguers. This has probably been discussed in threads previously, so apologies in advance. But what do we know about his defensive abilities? Awful, or simply below-average relative to major-league norms?

Is Kolek not like a Kerry Wood or a Josh Beckett (at least at draft time)? No. They had good/great breaking balls pre-draft, Kolek doesnt. Beckett also had better fastball command than either Wood or Kolek. That may not all be a bad thing in the long run for Kolek. All those big-time curves/slurves by Wood might have made him a better ace-prospect, but it may also have made him more likely to need surgery. Kolek with mostly fastballs and a very controlled workload might be a much better health risk than Wood was.

Almora 0-4 today, down to .253. Vogelbach up to .253 after 3 hits. Almora's OPS isn't much above .600, and his OBP is in the .260's.

.. Cal, thanks for the links to Phils articles. Getting it linked from here, where we go anyway, is really nice. Torres at Boise, that would be pretty shocking. (During the winter, I had my doubts he'd even stay Arizona, much less go straight to Boise.) I still doubt it. I think the facilities at Mesa are so elaborate, I'd think he'd get more teaching and coaching and practicing and weight-room working and English-learning in Mesa than he would in Boise. But, I didn't think Tseng would start straight at Kane County, either, so maybe Torres will go straight to Boise. The Torres news is really encouraging. Well, 5 errors in 11 games isn't, but the defensive perspective has generally been very positive. And hitting .300+, including 26 PA without a K, that's terrific. It would be awesome to have a true-hitter with good infield defense.

Clifton. I want some major-league potential here, not just somebody who hopes to get to PCL someday.