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craig

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Everything posted by craig

  1. craig
    Thanks, Duke. Glad that Kellogg could nip 90 once in a while. Tom, what's the difference between arm strength and velocity? I admit I don't quite understand the distinction. So, a guy can have a stronger arm but throw slower? How is that, and why does the stronger guy throw slower? And what advantage does the stronger arm have if it doesn't result in being able to throw as fast? I'm guessing sustainability; maybe the stronger armed Kellogg-Sands can hold their 88 mph longer, whereas a faster guy will be lose his velocity after the pitches pile up? Does the extra arm strength for the slower guy have a harder breaking ball?
  2. craig
    This Almora bit hitting HR's, slugging .550+, OPSing .950+, OBP'ing at .400, is pretty fun. Very fun. Hope he can keep it up, wow. Hanneman is up to .796 OPS, despite his low BABIP. Ryan Kalish is going crazy for Iowa, as good as Contreras, Almora, and Vogelbach have been, Kalish has done better than any of them. Tom, if Steele has less arm strength than Sands, who barely touches 90-91 only occasionally, then Steele isn't much of a prospect. Oh well, couldn't really expect to hit on all three of Sands/Steele/Cease. If Cease works out well, you're still beating the odds.
  3. craig
    Yeah, if he's got a bad fastball and throws high bad fastballs, that's a problem. If he's not fast enough, that's a problem. Those could be two show-stopper problems for him, if he's both slow and high. Still, hard to imagine he's as slow as Kellog or Sands. If he's just an 88-90 soft-toss finesse guy like Sands, Steele's obviously not much of a prospect. O well, you win some, you lose some.
  4. craig
    I doubt getting killed in the 1st and 2nd innings is really a function of his size or getting tired. Will be interesting to read what Duke has to say about him. That PJ Higgins cat is trying to do the Chesny Young bit, except he's a catcher. He's got another couple of hits, and his OBP is well into the high .400's now. Hanneman with his 4th HR already, and a couple of hits. I believe his OPS is now up around or over .800, and that's despite having a lousy BABIP. His BB/K ratio is way better thus far. That would be so awesome if he turned into a real thing.
  5. craig
    I'm picking from Clifton, Stinnet, Steele and Blackburn here. Going with Clifton and Stinnett. Looks like Wilson is running away with it. I'm kind of cautious on him, because although it's a small sample, he seems to be about 1-for-20 in extended spring training based on Phil's reports. Turns 20 in October, so he's not super young, really.
  6. craig
    Small nitpick, but Happ is 21, not 22. It's going to be interesting to see how he progresses this year. Including the K-rate. I'm hoping is settles down some, and that he doesn't have a couple of 4-K nights every month. Nothing is ever safe with high-K prospects, I don't think. Still, there is considerable intrigue with a guy who is 1.000+ OPS with power and massive OBP at age 21.
  7. craig
    Just to raise another whacky some-aspects-comp for Chesny: Juan Pierre! (Without the speed or CF defense....) Over his career, Juan Pierre hit .295 with IsoP of .066. Averaged 1 HR per season, and averaged 5 singles per XBH. That's the kind of singles ratio that Chesny might have. Pierre had a 6% K-rate. Almost inconceivable that Young could K that little, but basically that's the type of low-K mostly-singles contact profile that Young has. Obviously three massive differences: 1. Pierre was really fast and a prolific base-stealer. Huge advantage Pierre. 2. Pierre played CF. Huge advantage Pierre. 3. Young walks much more. (Pierre's K-rate was astonishingly low, but his walk rate was even lower.) Advantage Chesny.
  8. craig
    That's awesome, Duke. We'll look forward to some good scouting reports from you on these guys!
  9. craig
    Typing/grouping/comping players is fun and helpful. But not all low-power contact-hitters are quite the same. Not all utility-guys are the same. *If Darwin Barney (career .246 BA, .295 OBP) had been a .300-hitter with .360+ OBP, he'd have made a mint. *2008 Theroit, with the .387 OBP, was a really, really valuable player. The 2009 version with the .343 OBP, and the subsequent career Theriot who never was higher than .323, was a very different player. *If Chesny is a .320-OBP guy, that's one thing; if he can be be a .360+ OBP guy, different story. Same with defense. LaStella is a utility player, but he's more OK than good at 2B or 3B. Not sure whether Chesny is likely to exceed the LaStella level defensively. If he could achieve the prime Zobrist level defensively, while OBP'ing at .350+, you've got a very usable utility player. I've heard 2nd hand that McLeod himself, before the season, envisioned Chesny as a LaStella type, with better speed and defense, but less power.
  10. craig
    After 17 K's, Eddy Martinez drew his first walk today. Jiminez average is up pretty high now. Torres is young, and the season is early, and he's been anti awful for the last ten games or whatever. Still, he's been a high-level K-guy last year as well, this is nothing new or anomalous. And, while saying he's K'd in bunches before is true, it isn't totally encouraging. The concept was that for a teenager, all bad things were forgiven because being so young he's expected to improve. That he's come back and been lots worse 2nd half than first last year, and much worse this April than last summer, is not the improvement trajectory we were looking for. Fortunately, lots of time ahead. Ironic perhaps that BABIP has bitten him. Last year his high batting average was built on BABIP; for a guy with so many K's and so few HR's last year, his BA was flukey high, built on BABIP. Now the BABIP has swung opposite direction. Caratini, for the moment, has OPS up to .801. Nice progress. Hope he can sustain and improve for a while, and slip in a few XBH semi-regularly. Young is a fun freak; How many guys are slugging well over .500, even while >80% of their hits are singles?
  11. craig
    yeah, he's been pretty amazing. 14BB/5K, that's pretty remarkable. His BB/K ratio has improved each season as he's been getting promoted. Kind of crazy. We talk about contact hitters, but haven't seen this kind of thing before. A RH LaStella with less power but better speed and defense? His career OPB is now over .400, his OPS over .800, and thus far no hint that advanced pitching is going to take him down. A LaStella who could better handle multiple positions defensively could be a really interesting utility guy.
  12. craig
    Steele's slow start has certainly cost him. I think if we'd had this vote the day before the season began, Steels would have probably been elected by now. I'm hoping he's going to get rolling soon and end up putting together a very successful season that looks much more promising at the end than it did after his first two starts.
  13. craig
    I'll go Clifton and Stinnett this round.
  14. craig
    Hanneman's been a high-K guy in past. High K's and low HR's are not a good combo. But while his BA is still low thus far, his small-sample splits are actually good: 10K/5BB/3HR/67 AB. Guys with only 2:1 K/BB ratios and 3:1 K/HR ratios, over the long haul, usually are good offensive guys. **If** he can sustain ratios like that for the season (massively unlikely), he'll end up with a good-hitting season. His small-sample average is bad because his BABIP is bad, .241. Unusually bad for a guy with his speed, although not unusually bad for a <1-month sample. Perhaps also not that unusually bad for an extreme ground ball-hitter. Hopefully he'll drive the ball more often going forward. Hopefully going forward this year, all of the small-sample things that look positive (HR rate up, K-rate down), while all of the small-sample things that look bad will wash out over larger sample set (low BABIP, high ground-ball rate and presumably low line-drive rate.)
  15. craig
    Stinnet 7K/0BB and 8GO/2AO in 6.2 innings. Very nice. Pretty good strike percentage, 56/80. Blackburn again winning the BABIP game. Shutout through 4 with only a single K. No walks helps. Alzolay also with another good BABIP game, no earned runs, 2 singles and 1 unearned run through 6, with only 4 K's.
  16. craig
    Tim, I'm pretty hopeful, too. When the year is done, I'm hopeful that we'll look at both Stinnett and Clifton and be pretty pleased with their seasons. Tonight could be a pretty good pitching night. Blackburn's been good three straight, so perhaps he's due for a dud. But, so far so good; so I'm curious whether he can sequence another good one on.
  17. craig
    how do his strikeouts break out LH: 5K/13AB RH: 13K/47AB
  18. craig
    Current Ian Happ splits: Right-handed: 1-13, .374 OPS Left-handed: 18-47, 1.096 OPS Early and very small samples. But interesting, and something to watch for as sample grows.
  19. craig
    Yeah, Gutierrez is one of the few guys who seems willing to sign in his period. I hope they get him. Seeing how so many guys are willing to wait till the next period and how Moncada is probably the best prospect still in the minors, it bums me out he wasn't willing to wait for the Cubs. 96 with a hammer curve and projectable, that's a dream combo. Gutierrez has himself situated in a nice place, where he can get bids from this year's teams and next year's. So he's got a pretty full opportunity. Cubs have already spend $30, and sounds like he'd likely cost a bunch more x 2. But that would be really cool. Seems silly to even relate the international market for a teenager to what's happening with the big-league club. But, I almost feel like the great start for the big-league Cubs makes it very likely that there will be October revenue coming in. More projected revenue, more ability to fund a prospect you like. Hopefully they go after this guy and it works great.
  20. craig
    That would seem to make Mexico an obvious niche place to target. Same for everybody, of course....
  21. craig
    Nice to see Pierce Johnson both back pitching, and pitching seemingly very well. 11K/1run/8IP thus far, that's encouraging. 6K/1BB nights are always good. Haven't been getting a lot of "wow" pitching nights, but have been some variably decent ones from a variety of guys. Hopefully we'll see some good work with increasing or sustainable consistency from Clifton and Steele and Sands and Kellogg and Alzolay etc.. Disappointed to have my guy McNeil have a lousy game last night. Too bad. Consistency is always a hard thing, of course, and in April we only have a couple of pitching samples to comprise the composite.
  22. craig
    Will be interesting to see over time. Az Phil reports on the XST games periodically; not sure I'm remembering, but it seems like in about the last four games where Wilson has played that Phil has reported, Wilson has gone hitless in all of them.
  23. craig
    I'm going for the power arms. McNeil and Clifton.
  24. craig
    Yeah, 1-run in three upper-minors games is pretty nice. Obviously he's been kinda BABIP lucky. But, he's long been a ground ball guy, and that's remained true. 88-92 isn't fast, but 88-92 controlled sinkers would seem perfectly playable. Will be fun to see how well he can sustain success this year.
  25. craig
    Hudson Clifton. He's young, 20, and he combines good/plus fastball with strikeout stuff. Consistency and control are the issues. His first two starts haven't been encouraging. But at this stage in the ranking, and given how small the sample is thus far this season, I think it's reasonable to consider him, based on his relatively high ceiling.
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