craig

True for sure. As good as his fastball may be, there aren't really many/any good big-leaguers who don't have some good secondaries. He's not going to be a big success unless one or two of his secondaries end up being good. Really interesting to see how those progress. I saw one effective spring outing. I thought the changeup looked pretty good, in that outing better than the slider to my amateur eyes. The slider was kinda good, in terms of sharp movement; but it missed so badly in that outing that it didn't tempt. I think Wiggins is a smart, dedicated guy and they've talked him an elite athlete. Maybe he'll never improve secondaries enough, and end up Marmol or Justin Grimm. But I think it's more likely that he'll work on those pitches and improve the consistency with both change and slider. Think both will look more controlled and consistent in July than they looked in February. Pretty optimistic!

I think that's such a fun scenario. Heh heh, and I'm the only guy in Cub fan-dom who likes Assad quite a bit; who thinks his success past may be more than fluke luck (3.43 career ERA); and who thinks he's got some potential improvement ahead that still hasn't been fully tapped. So he might be another low-cost option after the 3 tickets expire. Rea is also under club control for next year at $7.5. I'm not much of a believer in Wicks, but I know Jason and some posters still have hopes. Would be fun if his current injury wouldn't last too long, and where by season end we'd actually have hopes reestablished? But yeah, if you had your 5 names, plus Assad-Rea-Wicks, you could hypothetically enter next season with 8 candidates before either resigning any of Shota/Taillon/Boyd or signing some other FA. So, could be in good position. Shota, Taillon, and Boyd are $57 combined in lux this season.

Boo.

Yeah, for Wiggins each pitch is a big deal. But *IF* his fastball is both so good that he can afford to throw it a lot without guys sitting on it and killing it; and *IF* he can throw it for strikes a lot, to control counts; and *IF* he can even start to locate it pretty well, command not just control, it's way easier to succeed. Building around one premier pitch that you can both throw a lot and throw for strikes just helps everything. Can't get K's without getting to two strikes, obviously, and slider and change work way better as K pitches when guys chase with two strikes. Very optimistic, it would be so fun if he can throw enough strikes and locate well enough to stay excellent as a starter.

As Bertz just noted, innings is a cruder measure than than they have to limit themselves to these days. But just to use the innings, Horton was a strike thrower, Wiggins is not. So I don't think Horton's innings are necessarily very indicative of what Wiggins might do. Seems like Horton had a bunch of games where he was getting through 5 innings on 65 pitches, or 6 innings on 78 pitches or whatever. Some of that was intentional; they knew they wanted to limit his work both on season and in individual games. So having him intentionally throw strikes and pitch to contact, I think that was a way to get more innings out of him without exceeding the his workload restrictions. Kinda guessing that Wiggins will need more pitches per inning.

Yeah, as with most prospects, it's about HR. You project ~15HR longer term, and note that he doesn't really have 20-HR power as of today. I admit I'm somewhat more optimistic, and see a higher-HR ceiling? He seems bigger/stronger this spring, and he's shown some exit velocities that could allow for HR's, if he pulls in the air often enough. Guess what? He does pull, no? His South Bend HR's were predominantly pull shots. Most Cubs minor-league hitters come along as up-the-middle/oppo guys. Rojas might be the rare one who does pull a lot? He hit 11 HR in 252AB at South Bend at age 20, If a regular starter in the majors, he'll have more than double those AB's. Maybe he'll have more than double those HR's? Maybe more, if he's bigger, smarter, and stronger? Obviously big-league pitching is way better, so maybe that's not within reach. But just physically, in terms of strength and bat speed, I think he's got some power upside. If he becomes a really good strong-asset starter someday, I've got to believe >15 HR is going to be part of his package.

I'm kinda obsessed with some subs who can hit. If he can hit, he's got a chance to help the Cubs. So glad it's not like old days with no DH. But if he earned some DH action, was backup 1B, if he could play LF well enough and hit well enough to be the backup LF, I think there could be a good role. Lot of "ifs" in that, though. Kinda depends on how well he can actually hit, and whether he can develop into OK in left.

Interesting that he's hit some that hard. Promising? "has a 70 speed grade". That's kinda weird, or maybe meaningless? Being only 19/6 SB/CS, when he had 75 singles and 61 walks, that suggests he's a pretty useless base-stealer despite his speed. To reach 1B by single/walk 136 times, yet rarely even try to steal, and have only a JAG success ratio when he tries, that's not really what you'd guess for a 70-speed guy whose game is built around small-ball. Must lack instinct or quick acceleration or something. We often use HR as a proxy for power, but doubles and triples are a big deal. Bateman had 75 singles but only 9 doubles, and despite his speed not a single triple. That's kinda crazy. If he can be whacking ≥100 EV, you'd think some doubles and triples ought to be possible. Other thought is that big-league defense is amazing. With "mainly about beating the ball into the ground and racing the baseball to first base", it's harder to win that race against big-league defenders. My theory is always that contact hitters are better able to adapt and optimize their hitting than are contact-challenged guys. Hopefully he can drive a few more line drives and get more doubles and triples? And maybe somehow figure out how to steal bases in volume.

I think Long is maybe a little too high, I'd have Conrad ahead. But, whatever. Bummer that he's injured, I wonder if/when he'll actually be back. The spin has been nothing big, and we know they should be cautious. I think some speculation that he might be back as soon as this weekend. I'm hoping that he's just a true-blue hitter, that he has enough power to make it work if he optimized his usage, and that in time he'll figure out how to pull more. As I always say, contact guys seem more likely to be able to adjust and optimize their hitting. The ability to play something other than 1B is obviously big. I think his anti-split may also work against him a bit. Not likely to get called up and given an initial role as a platoon-against RH pitchers. You'd think RH bat could platoon with Busch or Moises, but he isn't advantageously superior facing lefties. At least not yet. Would like to see a bunch of LF action this season, and would like to imagine him being decent there.

Yeah, we'll see. Hitters have slumps and hots. I'm just curious to see how consistently Rojas will be able to hit, and to drive the ball. Hoping like crazy. Not sure "getting the bat knocked out of his hands" happened in past for lack of strength? Lots of guys with plenty of man strength still don't hit the ball on the nose often enough, and make too many soft-contact outs. Time will tell how it goes for him. Hoping like crazy that it goes really well!!!

Yeah, kinda disappointed that he's not ready to go and 100% already. Will be interesting to see when he starts to get game action, and if/when he moves from DH to playing OF. Optimist me says that Cubs have been very cautious and deliberate with rehabs, so hopefully he's actually doing just fine, has had no setbacks, will have no setbacks, and when he eventually does unroll his career, this shoulder bit won't have any enduring impact. So, yeah. Get healthy. Learn to pull. Get some lift. Become a plus-plus corner outfielder defensively. Become a big-slug HR guy, more HR's than "just" an Ian Happ slugger. Will be so interesting to see what he looks like by end of the season.

Will be interesting to see how Rojas does when the minor-league season begins. We're all excited about him now, but even in camp he's barely hitting .200. Hopefully he can sustain some consistency, and show exciting bat over longer haul. Agree with your thoughts on Ramirez. The same guy with 5-10 HR vs 15+ can have very different career. Same kinda thing as has applied to Nico. Last year, the 0-per-month Nico of April and May wasn't as productive as the guy who had 1-3 each of last four months. And same kind of thing will apply for Triantos and Rojas.

Having both the physical power, and being able to turn it into some game slug, is key as everybody has said. I remain guardedly hopeful, but somewhat skeptical. Skeptic me: Last year out of 140 hits, 107 of them were singles. When <24% of hits go for extra bases, that's pretty extreme, and seems variably unlikely to change. Probably kinda is who he is. Optimist me: Good contact hitters are sometimes best able to adapt their swings to get more out of it. That can hypothetically take time? When you're younger and not as strong, it doesn't make a lot of sense to loft much in order to hit fly-balls that come down short of the wall. So maybe younger guy take an approach appropriate to his young lack-of-power? Only when you later grow into HR power does it make sense to adjust and situationally swing for more loft. Optimist-me has these same hopes for each of Triantos, Kepley, and Southisene. Knoxville was not slug-friendly, so that may factor too? Madrigal was an all-singles guy too, but OFers played him super shallow it became hard to locate singles. But if Pedro has some strength/power, then even if he doesn't loft and clear the wall much for HR, just being able to hit the ball hard might keep the outfielders honest so he can use the whole OF for BIP-hits? I don't know what he looked like before. But in spring training TV, he looks pretty muscular and thick. He is not a twig like Aramis Ademan or Reginald Preciado. Just physique-wise, no reason why he couldn't have some power. (Obviously short levers provide some limits.). I'm so unaccustomed to the Cubs D+D actually developing hitters super well. Would be fun to see him mature into a guy with enough slug to make it work. As noted by others, getting up to 10HR's changes a guy, and 15 could change into a starter profile. I'm pretty appreciative of utility guys who can hit. Only a couple of years ago, look what nothing we had at 3B? And last year, look at Berti and Brujan and Nicky Lopez and Gage Workman. between Shaw this year, and the possibilities with Triantos, Ramirez, and Rojas down the road, it could be nice to have some good utility infielders.

I wonder if pipeline has info from Cubs sources? For Martinez-Gomez, they say "... may earn him a chance to show what he can do as a starter this year". And at the end for his possible big-league future, they refer to him as a possible back-end starter. Have they gotten that from somebody in Cubs? I just assumed he's pure reliever. In short relief, his fastball is fast, but in rotation his velocity would decline and his control would be a showstopper. Hope I'm wrong, would be fun to see what he could do pitching regularly and getting more innings in rotation. Even if it was just for a developmental year or two, after which he'd return to relief once/if he approaches the majors. But call me very surprised if he's starting games this spring.

They gave Cruz a 40 hitting score, even though he K'd 47%. That might be a rather generous grade-inflation score. But yeah, it would sure be fun if he looked like he could hit some. Kinda shame that hitting is the one tool you can't live without.

Owen Ayers at 11 is kinda crazy. Again, it comes from their scouting grades, some of which are probably faulty. They've got him with 50 power, so they're scoring him at the same power grade as Conrad, and higher than Rojas. Even though he never hit more than 8 HR's in a college season or at Myrtle. I'm kinda skeptical. They also give him a 70 arm, wow. It would be super crazy if an old cat like that could figure out catching fast, and actually show a decent bat. Would be very fun. But I'd drop him a whole bunch, skeptical that he'll actually hit.

I'm guessing they kinda roll with their own scouting grades. For Conrad and Rojas, their grades are the same in four areas, and differ only in power (Conrad 50 over 45 Rojas) and Arm (Rojas wins, 55 to 50). Given those grades, I can see the logic in preferring the guy with more power over the guy with more arm. Power matters more, I think. Hitting 55 same Run 50 same Defense 50 same Overall 50 same Arm: 55 Rojas, 50 Conrad Power 45 Rojas, 50 Conrad Logically it makes sense to have your ranking consistent with your grading. The question, of course, is whether the grading is true. Is the Rojas with his couple of camp HR's and his exit velocity, is 45 power now too low? The HR from yesterday seems better than 45. Is the better-armed Rojas who plays SS and can presumably relocate to 3rd or 2nd, shouldn't he maybe have a higher defensive score than a corner outfielder? Conrad hasn't faced a pro pitcher yet. Might his hitting score perhaps end up less than 55? We shall see. Or, Rojas slugged .205 at Knoxville. Maybe his hitting 55 is too high? My hope is we love them both. That Rojas shows a bunch of power, and that upscores to 50 or 55; and hits well, still 55; and defends well, gets lifted to 55; and his overall bumps to 55. He makes his Knoxville disaster last summer look irrelevant. Likewise hope that Conrad is 100%, that he looks really good in Center Field and looks like when he moves over to RF that he'll be terrific defensively. And that he shows 55-60 power, 60 hit, and overall is easily upgraded to a 55 or 60. Would be fun to have both of those guy plus Wiggins look like top-30 guys by next fall. (Wiggins having a great year, but Cubs pitching staying so good and so healthy that he doesn't exhaust his eligibility.). Fun to dream.

Sure. Any 2nd-round HS pick, you're kinda trusting that scouting is right and the failure-risk associated with HS picks won't be realized.

From Bleacher nation. So, doesn't mean anything about Birdsell being miraculously ready to pitch.

Tangent, given reference to Conrad. Has anything been seen of him in camp? Kinda interesting that Hartshorn has gotten into 3 games, but to my recall I don't recall seeing Conrad's name in any. Is he still too injured to play? Will he be a late-start guy? Hartshorn is really interesting. I'm an optimist, but I am feeling a lot of trust in the Cubs scouting and development. If they prioritized him enough to pay $2M bonus, they obviously saw lots to like, and some of the media guys did also. I'm totally good with him at 9, I'd have him higher myself. I'd definitely have him ahead of no-power utility wannabe's like Triantos and Ramirez. The prospect of a true hit/contact/power combo guy is super exciting, so I want to keep him and value him until/unless he proves otherwise. A true-blue middle-of-order power bat who's a true hitter and has good pitch recognition, that kind of guy is invaluable. Especially if he's young, hungry, and has years of club-control contract. I saw him when I was in Mesa last month. He just looked taller than most of the guys in his group. He looked fit to me, first glimpse did not suggest overweight in the least. In NBA and NFL, guys work like crazy to stay fit and fast; in college football and basketball guys often improve their condition lots after freshman year. I'm optimistic that he'll stay in good shape and be a really fit, well-built hitter who's just fine in the outfield. Hitting pro pitching for power is hard, way harder then HR-derby where you can leg-kick all you want. Will he actually be able to hit pro pitches often enough to hit HR's? Only time will tell. Lot of seemingly promising power hitters K like mad once in the minors, so we'll see. But yeah, hoping that he ends up just a stud hitter. Not sure we'll see much of him this year. Maybe some late-season Myrtle. But guessing not much. Next season when he's in full-season all year, guessing that will be more revealing than this. Do we have any info on the switch-hitting stuff? Like, which is scouted as his better, more natural side? Hitting is so hard; getting a good power hitter with 2nd-round bonus is kinda long odds to start. Getting basically **two** good power hitters, both lefty and righty, is way more remotely unlikely. Sure, I'd love that. But I think the odds that you're going to get a good switch from both sides is kinda remote. I'm guessing that sooner or later, it will be one or the other. But I have no idea which one, does anybody think they know or have a guess? I'll obviously guess lefty, since much larger platoon role that way, so *IF* I'm only going to be good at one, I'd probably prioritize hitting lefty. Man, would it be sweet if the Cubs really clicked with Harshorn and he emerged as a serious guy.

No question that last year was a huge disappointment for Triantos. His numbers were terrible, .684 OPS for Iowa stinks. Slugging .369 for Iowa, really bad. The question is whether future will mirror how bad he was last year. If he's always soft contact; who rarely pulls or drives for much power; who just isn't strong enough or have bat speed or handle breaking pitches enough to hit, he's bust. Pretty plausible that he's just never going to hit enough to make it work. And while he's still young, it's not like he's going to grow a bunch physically. Probably is what he's going to be physically. I'm still guardedly hopeful, myself. 1st, he started off hurt, and got into a big slump. Bad health often leads to bad results and bad habits. May not reflects what he can be if healthy. 2nd, guys are always trying to figure things out and adapting. When he seemed to be hitting OK and had a good 2024, he may not have felt need to adjust. But failure prompts adjustments, and he may have made some? Think he may be healthier, a little stronger, adjusted some, maybe more pull-appreciative, maybe more chase-avoidant? Hoping last year was an injury-triggered anomoly, and he'll look good this year? I don't think he's played that much CF yet. Optimistic that his outfielding will improve? I hope Shaw ends hitting, and Nico has a good year and extends. With Nico back and Shaw as good Zobrist, it's hard to see role for Triantos. But fair chance that either Nice walks or else Shaw gets traded or busts. That could open up role for Triantos to be 3B/2B/CF utility. If he's a bad hitter, who wants him. But if he can emerge as a pretty good hitter, and a decent fielder, there is value in utility antiawful. We've had Brujan, I don't want that again. Think there's still a chance that Triantos might break out as a hitter, and become good enough to be a valuable long-term utility player for the Cubs.

No idea on these guys. Personally I'd rank Wing a little higher, just because I don't have any information that limits his ceiling. Lots of space to mature and develop, and sometimes the "great athlete" guys tend towards being able to develop control. Birdsell wasn't a sure-thing high-ceiling, with the surgery I'd push him back some. But hopefully he'll recover 100%, and be a genuine big-league prospect again. Mathis, hard to guess whether he was every healthy last year, or whether what little we saw of him reflects his future. Would love to see him get a reset this year, be 100% healthy, have kinda adjusted from low-level college to being in the pros with pro-stuff pitchers, and be a good hitter. But who knows? Cepeda is another who-knows. Often high-K contact challenged guys just always have it hard, and every promotion is hard. Had he figured something out late last year? Or was that a hot streak, and he's due to probably start off with a cold streak? Would sure love for him to emerge as being legit. Sanders also who-knows. As a strike-thrower, my theory is those guys sometimes are best able to use pitch-lab type stuff to adjust their stuff, to optimize velocity, to tweak or add new pitches. He sometimes seemed pretty good on his good days, so I'm not sure his stuff is that badly lacking? Locate a little better, add some more velo, tweak your offspead, and maybe he'll take another step forward. Coming back to Iowa will also be his first time repeating a level. I'm hoping to see some success from all of the non-Birdsell guys in this group. Kinda hoping that the Cubs player development system is better than it's ever been, and that a higher % of Cubs prospects will show healthy development than has ever proven true in past Cubs systems. Thanks for the writeups, Jason!

Wow, crazy move for Myrtle. Will be interesting to see what impact that has.

Yeah, super interested to see if Cabada can be a true-blue hitter, I'm high on him too. Also really interested in Southisene. I think your Kepley analogy is very good. I think it's quite interesting that Kantro spent high picks and $$$ in back-to-back drafts on contact/speed/defense/no-power guys in back-to-back drafts in those two guys. Jason, I'm agnostic on the Southisene HR bit. For a guy with ~500 AB, 5HR is worth 10 points in BA/OBP, and ~40 points in slug. So yeah, a variance in 5HR is worth ~50 OPS points. A lot! So getting 5 HR versus none, that's significant for sure. The flip is whether he could hit the ball hard and get lots of line-drive doubles and triples in addition to singles, WITHOUT trying to elevate for HR? Like, could he hit .280 just with in-the-park contact? He didn't last year, composite, but he did second half. I'm rambling here, but everybody now loves Nico and thinks he's a star and worth 5-6 WAR. All with 7 HR and a .739 OPS. But Nico walked only 39 times in 649 PA. What if Southisene was otherwise Nico in BABIP and doubles/triples, but with two adjustments: Nico minus 5 HR, but plus 40 walks? Seems to me that the extra 40 walks would make up for the lost HR? Obviously more of Nico's value is with his baserunning and defense, but I think there's a scenario where Southisene might both steal bases and defend at a very high level. A question, though, is whether he'd still be able to draw walks against big-league pitchers, if they had no fear of HR? And could he still get hits vs big-league pitchers, if they're knocking the bat out of his hands, and outfielders are pinching him like Madrigal? Southisene isn't big, and his levers are obviously short; but I'm not sure he can't get strong enough to hit the ball variably hard? Sure hoping so. This season might tell a lot. But yeah, would sure be fun if he got a handful of HR's, a bunch of double-triples, and kept getting on base at a phenomenal pace.