craig

I was surprised that both Dopirak and Moore made it. And disappointed that neight Marshall nor Marmol did. Dopirak's got the gorilla power, but his numbers were so awful and his running/defense so blah, I didn't expect him to fit in such a competitive league. Rare for a guy who isn't exceptionally young to make the list with a mid-.600's OPS, if he isn't a golden-glove SS kind of prospects or a speedburner. Dope's BP power must still be pretty impressive even though he only hit 16 in games. Would you guess that 12 games and 69 innings wasn't enough for Marshall to stay on people's memory? Or that he just didn't look like as good a prospect as Moore or Dopirak or 20 other guys? If I was convinced that Marshall was healthy, I'm pretty sure I'd rank Marshall ahead of Dopirak or Moore on my Cub prospect list.

Thanks for that Lujan report! If it's the same guy, sounds like a roster-filler to catch Instrux pitchers, but sounds like he's neither young enough nor talented enough to be a meaningful major league prospect. O well. Funny reading, anyway.

i dont think corey was rushed. .... ..Take away half of 2003 and he's been a dissapointment no matter how you look at it. He should have learned that strike zone in the minors. He should have had that "you can hit 40 home runs" mentality taken from him in the minors. He should have stood for hours at the plate taking BP, getting a fine every time he swung at an eye-high fastball.... I agree with you when you say Murton and Cedeno are ready. They are. Pie isn't and we dont want him to turn into Corey 2.0. I agree that Murton and Cedeno are ready, and that Pie is not. I also thought that Corey was rushed when he came up. That said: There will never be a definitive answer on why Corey has been a disappointment. Which came first, the chicken or the egg? Did the rushing cause the disappointment, or would he have been just as disappointing had they parked him in the minors for an extra three years, and he'd still not have changed much? We'll never know. Your post talks about how he should have practiced and been penalized for swinging at bad balls. Seems to me that while he didn't get $$-penalized in the minors for doing that, he's been essentially penalized every time he's struck out or hit a worthless pop or made an easy out swinging at junk. He's had years of booing and fan complaint and disappointing performance; if all the failure and disappointment and negative reinforcement he's gotten while doing those things in the majors hasn't caused him to correct, why would you assume that some negative reinforcement in the minors would have caused him to correct the problem? I suspect he wants to, but lacks the pitch-recognition/response talent to do so. That could have been as equally true in the minors as in the majors. An analog for Corey is David Kelton. Kelton didn't have the speed or the defense or lefty-ness of Corey, nor quite the good health that Corey has enjoyed. So he wasn't quite as toolsy a runner and wasn't drafted as high. But from the start Kelton was hyped as a great hitting prospect. Corey and Kelton, two great hitting prospects who were drafted at the same time. Corey moved fast ("rushed!"), the other moved very gradually (not rushed at all). Even though he was anything but rushed, Kelton has maintained the same types of problems that Corey has. Kelton K's too much, walks too little, swings at pitches he shouldn't, and isn't able to mash enough of the pitches in the zone. His hitting progress stalled and disappointed in a similar way that Corey's did, even without any "rush" to blame. Kelton didn't fail because he was rushed, but because he just doesn't have it. It may well be that Corey also failed not because he was rushed, but because he just doesn't have it. Of course I can't prove that. But neither can it be proved that Corey's failure is in any way caused by his rate of advancement. We'll never know for sure. But there are other guys who are rushed along who continue to make adjustments and improve even after reaching the majors, who find out that fanning at high fastballs is counterproductive, so they get the negative reinforcement and are able to improve following adjustment. That Corey has been unable to do so may be less about the rush than about Corey's ability.

Thanks, Jaxx (and Dave). Heh, I hadn't quite figured out that "lujan-mex cat." meant his name was lujan, and that he was a catcher from mexico! Now it all makes sense. The Cubs have only signed 2-3 players from Mexico, in my memory, and none that started low and went anywhere. Danial Garibay, of course, but he was already an established high-minors guy by then. Obviously Borowski, but he was special. I can maybe recall one or two youngsters, but I don't recall either making it out of short-season action. I wonder if Lujan is a not-so-young guy from the Mexican League pipeline? Or if he's a young kid? If he's young, it's interesting that he'd be in Instrux. Normally they don't invite total non-prospect roster-fillers there. Of course, they always need to have enough catchers to handle the pitchers, so having a catcher invited doesn't mean he's anything big. But I'm hoping that maybe he actually will be a prospect, and if not they'd have just brought in one of the roster fill catchers instead? Would be really cool to actually sign another International position player who was good. Zuleta early 90's; Choi late 90's; Pie early 2000's. Position guys who have been good starters even in A-level of full season ball have been relatively rare. Not likely that lujan is the next, but it's not impossible.

Choosing not to sign Giles or Damon seems quite likely. As does the likelihood of being unable to acquire an impact OFer at a cost Hendry is willing to pay. So, if those are the conditions for considering Furcal, then I think Furcal should remain under active consideration at least until we know Hendry is willing to pay the price required to get a knockout outfielder. It also seems plausible to both sign Furcal and get an outfielder. I think Furcal is a very good SS, both ways. The odds that Cedeno will be as good immediately, or ever, are not great. Furcal walks more than Cedeno ever has, he hits more HR's than Cedeno ever has, and he steals more bases than Cedeno ever has. He's a very good player. Further, he's equipped to be a leadoff man, now. With Cedeno's typically low IsoD's, and his inexperience, he's not a realistic candidate to lead off in 2006, and perhaps not ever. The number of big-spending teams likely to want a SS projects to perhaps be minimal. The Cubs might be able to get Furcal at relatively fair-value price, without a gross overpay. If Hendry can get an asset-SS who's plus defensively and offensively and who solves the leadoff problem at fair value, he should consider doing that. It's hard enough to ever get a quality FA at fair-value price; if that becomes possible, I don't think Hendry should pass on that simply because Furcal is a SS. I also don't think Cedeno would be wasted at 2nd. His defense is way better than Walker's. Whether you view Walker's as acceptable or as weak, Cedeno's would be a huge step up. And while the cost margin relative to Walker or the Grudz/Hairston's that populate 2B isn't as large as the savings relative to Furcal, it would still be substantial. If Cedeno's two-way combination is good value (especially at price) at SS, I don't see why it wouldn't also be decent value at price for 2B. And I think having middle-infield settled with two guys who can both field and run, and are young enough so that that should remain true for 4 years or more, would greatly stabilize the roster, the baserunning, the defense, the fundamentals, etc.. I'm not saying Furcal is the answer, or should be signed. But as I look ahead, I think it's possible that Furcal will be available at a much more reasonable price (given teams buying) than Giles or Damon, guys who may be targetted by multiple big-spending teams. If the market goes supply-demand overboard on Giles, who'll be 35, but is pretty fair on Furcal, it might make a lot better sense to sign the much younger guy at a more value-fair price, and put leadoff to bed for a bunch of years. Then we won't fuss with trying to force Pie into leadoff where his K-loving anti-walk profile will perhaps misfit. It will be easier to ease Pie into the lineup, batting low. Or Cedeno, batting 2nd or 7th or 8th. Or Murton, batting 2nd or 6th or whatever. Obvoiusly signing Furcal and starting Cedeno at 2nd could involve trying to get a fair-value trade for Walker. Should we do all that? Who knows. But I'd at least consider it.

Thanks. Who are: westphal, ... lujan-mex cat.? I know Westphal is the guy who hit .105 at Daytona, but where did he come from? I thought normally Instrux seemed to be for semi-interesting guys, not pure roster fillers. Surprised he's there.

Lee, ARam, Barrett, and Z are about the only ones to be counted on. I'd build around dempster, too, given cost/risk/value. Personally I'd be happy with Walker back, but I'd be open to trading him instead if value was fair. I'd support resigning Nomar in some capacity (2B or OF) if he signed for a price I liked. I'm fine with either Murton or Cedeno or both. But I don't think any of the Walker/Nomar/Murton/Cedeno bunch are secure enough, health/performance-wise to count on them performing at a high level. Plan for him, but don't depend on him. If he's healthy and strong, absolutely structure your team so that he'll be able to be used as starter as opposed to relief. But don't structure so that if he isn't healthy and good, the season is cooked. I'm fine if they do, and use the funds to upgrade elsewhere. But I don't think it's a must. For example, if Murton was sharing a spot with a Hairston or Burnitz, or was perhaps a 4th outfielder platooning with somebody in left and available to play fulltime if/when Nomar got hurt, I'd be fine with that. I wouldn't object to Nomar in left and Giles in right, with poor Murton on the outside, for example. I don't trust him, really, and don't want to build around him as #5. I'd prefer to add a rotation pitcher (if price is right, which is rare for pitchers...). I think Williams could do well in relief, and would be better as #6 starter, who became #5 only if/when Wood or Prior or Z got disabled. Or,put differently, I'd like to see a situation where, in the even tof zero injuries, there was one spot to be filled by the winner of the Wood/Williams/Rusch (if back)/Hill/prospects pool. If wood is good, great. If not, Williams or whomever. But I don't want williams as #5, Maddux as #4, Wood as #3, Prior as #2. As soon as Wood or Prior get hurt, then a rotation with Maddux-Williams-Hill/Rusch as 3-4-5 could be scary bad. Nothing certain. I definitely believe Cedeno is ready to handle a job. But I'm not certain he'll really excel if so, and I don't think it would be a big problem to have him *not* be given a regular job. I'd like Cedeno at SS and Nomar at 2nd. I'd like Furcal at SS and Nomar at 2nd. I'd like Furcal at SS and Cedeno at 2nd (if they use Walker to get some OF help, and spend the money well in outfield/pitching). I do think the prospect of going with Nomar/Walker defensively up-the-middle would be hard to love. Who plays CF? The Cubs can't trade Corey for very much right now, so the smart play is to rebuild him. That starts in winter ball. If he opts not to play winter ball, the Cubs can't afford to wait until spring training to find out if he can hit. Can the Cubs win a world series with Hairston playing CF? Who would you acquire? Sign Damon? Trade for Hunter or Cameron? Is Greenburg ready? Please don't tell me that you think Pie is? Greenberg no way. Pie not at first, for sure. Corey is a question. Not only can I not count on him, I seriously wonder if I even want his salary. I'm reluctant to be throwing $2.5 at a guy I don't trust to start, and if he's not starting will not be of much use. I could see just winging it; hope Corey bounces back, if not Hairston hold the fort till Pie? Do you bring Burnitz back? I don't think so. I think RF is the best chance the Cubs have to improve their offense this off season. I think the two best options are signing Brian Giles or trading for someone. Easier said than done, of course... Limited pool of options, and I assume the guys who are a significant upgrade on Burnitz are unlikely to be available for trade... But no, I'd like to make a change. Maybe just for change sake, I don't know. Getting Giles would certainly make sense in many ways, but unlikely the Cubs will pay the length he'll get. We haven't even touched on the bullpen. Re-sign Dempster? I do. Who else do you build around? Ohman? Probably. Wuertz and Novoa? One or the other, but preferably not both. Make a big play for B.J. Ryan? If possible. Trade for someone like the Twins' Jesse Crain? Depending on the price, yes. Stick with dempster and hope he holds up. Keep Ohman. After that, it all depends on everything else... Is Rusch back? Do we get a starter so Williams is possible bumped to pen? Williamson? I'd like to get one serious RH reliever from outside, and might be game to settle for that, pending Rusch.

Some Cub pitching prospect (with Corey's contract thrown in) for Quentin is not going to happen. I'm blah on Cameron. He's having a career year to be hitting .273 this year, but that's partly lucky. (His BABIP is way higher than normal.) Put his BABIP at normal and you have what I'd project for next year; a guy who'll hit somewhere around .250. A .250-hitting CF who takes a walk, hits a few HR's, and plays good defense would be better than what we got from Corey this year, for sure. And probably better than we should expect from Hairston for next year. But trying to sell the budget and sell the farm to get .250-hitters doesn't thrill me too much. Hypocritically, since Hunter is somewhat similar, with an extra 20 points in batting average but fewer walks, I would have some interest in Hunter. If Twins eat some salary, and perhaps throw in a prospect or something to level things, I'd be willing to consider taking on $7 or so in salary to have Hunter. For example, if they took Corey's salary, threw in $2, and threw in somebody who'd be maybe their #20 prospect (not great but might turn out...), I'd be interested. Hunter's not great. But he's better than average, he's better than Hairston, and he's more reliable to be better than the bad-Corey. Hunter's defense really is exceptional. It's possible that the Corey we saw in 03-04 might post a .770-OPS that's as good or perhaps better than Hunter might give. So we could perhaps make a trade, take on a $7 million of costs (plus obligation to 2007 buyout or contract), and have Corey play as well in 2006 as Hunter does. But I personally think that the security of having a .270-type hitter with a .330-type OBP and a .770-type OPS, combined with great defense and a really likable personality, would be worth some millions in cost. Corey might be fine, Pie might come along and be as good as Hunter by August, Hairston might be just fine, Cameron might come through and hit .260... but I'd pay some money for insurance against a big disaster, comparable to the disaster that Corey-05 has been, and that could happen again next year is you count on Corey or Pie, or a guy like Cameron who might hit .220.

Good points. He does have a lot of money and flexibility. Part of that flexibility is having a lot of servicable options internally for open spots, even if some of the internal options aren't great. It's not like he absolutely *has* to get a rotation pitcher; he could hope that Wood will be healthy, and Williams or Rusch or a prospect could handle #5. It's not like he *has* to get a 2B; walker could do that, or Cedeno, or Hairston, or perhaps Nomar. It's not like he *has* to get a SS; Cedeno could do, or Neifi wouldn't be the end of the world (if some other spots were upgraded significantly, a team could win with Neifi at SS..), or Nomar might be a possibility again. It's not like he *has* to get a LF; Murton might be a good guy there, or Murton/Hairston combo, or perhaps sign Nomar to play left; or even resign Burnitz to play left instead of right, and to platoon or share with Murton. It's not like Hendry *has* to get an outside CF; he could go with Hairston, and hope that Corey would bounce back, or Pie would be ready sooner rather than later. And it's not like he *has* to get an outside RF. Burnitz isn't going to carry you, but he wasn't awful, and if the rest of the team was clicking, having Burnitz be an average RF wouldn't be the end of the world. Or Nomar could perhaps be resigned, but used in RF. My point is, Hendry doesn't really need to go after roster-fill players to plug any of the holes. He's got acceptable hole-fillers for each of the open spot, guys who look decent enough so that if he was to focus his spending and successfully upgraded 2-4 of the spots, he could just leave things alone and settle with the internal candidates at a couple of the other spots that don't get addressed with outside pickups. He'll clearly have the capacity to make several big moves this winter, unlike last year. I don't think he's got it any lighter in terms of return contracts, though. Last year Aramis was the only major return contract, other than Walker and Nomar. He'll have at least as many FA returners to decide about (Nomar, Dempster, possibly Rusch if he opts out but Hendry wants him back, Burnitz..). And whereas last year Aramis and Dempster (edit: I mean Barrett...) were the only guys entering possible free-agency years, this year DLee, Aramis, and Wood will all be entering a year where they'll have the freedom to become FA's after the year.

I thought Aardsma was supposed to be prjected as a quality BP arm. I'm I wrong? Back a few years Aardsma was discussed as having a big-time fastball. I get the impression from his work at WTenn that his fastball is unexceptional, both in terms of velocity, movement, and command. And that his breaking stuff isn't above average, in terms of movement and command. Seems like fairly average fastball with fairly average slider and somewhat below-average control. Guys can improve, and I hope he does; but at present he looks pretty average and somewhat limited to me.

Agree that Marmol, Marshall, Nolasco, and Pie are in... *if* Marshall's arm is expected to be healthy. If ITI is wrong and he needs shoulder surgery or something, different story. Sing maybe, although I don't think it would be the end of the world to expose him, and I'm not sure how much the Cubs like him or how they see him contributing as a big-leaguer. When a guy is hitting 6th for the home stretch, when offense is his strength, I wonder how much they really like him? Won't be much trouble fitting those first 4 on. What happens with Sing, Ryu or Brownlie will depend on some scouting stuff (if Ryu was regularly throwing in the 89-93 range, and touching 95 on occassion; he's on. If he was mostly 88-90, less clear. If Brownlie was getting into the 92's more regularly late in the season, and if they still think that may become more consistent in future, he could make it. After the Sisco thing, they'd look pretty sillly if they let Brownlie go, then he showed up throwing 92-94 next spring and looked really solid...) I don't think Craig has any shot whatsoever. Will be some issue with who to deroster. Cubs have tended to be pretty slow to deroster people. Lewis seems like the only no-brainer. Leiecester obvioius candidate. Koronka and Rohlicek are good suggestions, but the Cubs have an undying love for lefties, so they may see things differently. Other possibilities, IMO, could be Fontenot (hasn't been improving, no power, not notable defensively, pretty expendable...); Soto (he'll stay, just to have a catcher, but he's obviously not close to being an asset major-leaguer); Aardsma (seems pretty limited). Obviously Mitre, Welle, Leiecester are all out of options, so two or all three of those will be gone by opening day.

That's awesome news. For a while there, when Nolasco was slumping and injured, before Ryu had risen, before Marmol had done much at AA yet, and while Pinto still seemed like wildman supreme, Marshall looked like perhaps the best bet of the AA bunch. If his injuries are nothing that will limit his future, that's fantastic. Nolasco, Marshall, Ryu, Pinto, and Marmol, all five of those AA pitchers are pretty solid prospects. None are great, dominating ace prospects, but all five would seem to have a solid chance to be decent major league starters, useful relief guys, and/or meaningful trade bait. Some separation (Nolasco probably on top) but given how young they are, and how little Marmol and Marshall have pitched, and how Ryu is a little younger and maybe is the most likely to pick up some mph, any of them could end up being the best of the five, even if it isn't quite equally likely. All five throw more or less in the low 90's. All five seem to be mixture pitchers with standard fastball/change/breaker repertoirs. Pinto's anti-HR profiile is special, unfortunately his control is not. All five were born within less than a year of each other (the similarity in age sometimes surprises me), even though the pitching experience is less comparable. In 1982, Pinto was born in July, Marshall in August, Marmol in October, Nolasco in December, and then Ryu the following May of 2003.

I know Marshall missed a lot of time last year with the hand problem, and my understanding was that he was late starting this year for the same reason. Is that true? Or was he held back this spring because of arm trouble? I know that he pitched well, then got shelved with IIRC was shoulder problems. I thought at the time it was described as shoulder tendonitis or tired shoulder or whatever; at the time I don't recall the report being any more severe than when Nolasco got shut down for his bad shoulder during the summer. But whereas Nolasco came back, and must be fine to do as well as he's been doing recently, Marshall never did. But I haven't heard anything since. Is he just resting/rehabbing? Has he had surgery? Is he going to take the Ben Christensen/Mike Meyers route where he has a little shoulder stuff, and will be perpetually two weeks away, until 15 months later he has major surgery and his career is done?

I know, and recall being pretty disappointed. A lot of RHP have good success in low-A, where there aren't all that many dangerous LH hitters. But the higher the level, it seems the more enriched lineups are in good-hitting lefties. In the majors, you need to have a good way to attack them. Perhaps Gallagher already has a good way. But it's often common for a RH curveballer to have problems with lefties, if he doesn't either have an effective change or an effective cutter. I assume Gallagher will pursue the typical Cub way, which is to have the standard fastball/breaker/change. But a cutter might be an option, especially in the event that the change doesn't become as excellent as needed.

Yes, I am indeed interested, and puzzled, by that. To rest from throwing and to stay off an off-season throwing program, that I can understand. But to "rest" rather than to be one a fitness/conditioning program, that I don't understand. What risk would that have? And what's gained by "resting" and getting fat? Curious. I don't think the comment that he "hit 95" is that surprising, particularly from his agent. If a guy works at 87-92, at some point during the season he'll have touched 95 on one pitch or another. And if he normally works in the 87-92 range, an agent is obviously going to talk up the higher end of that. People always refer to the higher rather than the lower end of the ranges. I think the idea of developing his change makes total sense. Perhaps cutter as well. But whatever the agent may have said, and regardless if he has touched 95 once, most observers don't seem to read him as a guy with an overpowering fastball. He's going to need to locate/finesse his way if he's going to have a big career. Mastering the change is essential. Perhaps especially so if he wants to have a good attack against LH hitters. With neither a cutter nor a quality change, I'd guess that LH hitters could give him some trouble down the road. I'd like to see one or both of those two pitches become an effective tool for him.

Yeah, I don't know if Manual has any idea whether Ryu is throwing 88 or 95 these days. So, to repeat a question I asked a few weeks ago, how much velocity has Ryu lost? Early spring/summer I was hearing mostly 80's. 2-3 weeks ago DJAXXFAN said he was consistently 91. Was that a good day, and most other days he's 88-91? Was that a finesse day, and as often he's popping 92-94 these days? Touching 95-96 when he just feels like gunning it? We know the guy has an interesting curve and change. But how good is his fastball, really? And how good does it project to be next year? My guess is that he's been throwing it pretty good lately.

Interesting comment. Fleita is super-gush, so no harm in him giving an optimistic spin. Also not a bad idea for Gallagher, who's perhaps fitness challenged. If he's got a shot for AA, perhaps he'll be more motivated to stay fit this winter, whereas if Daytona is a lock, what's the urgency? Gallagher seems very bright, and his control is pretty good. I think he's a guy who might benefit from AA. He might perhaps learn more from getting knocked around a bit than by having a solid start in high-A? Also, everybody likes young guys. If you're trying to build a guy up to be a good trade value, that might work better if he's always age-impressive relative to his league? Anyway, Gallagher may be young, but he seems to know how to pitch. He may be better prepared to skip a level than most others.

Thanks for the encouraging view. You've seen him all the time, so if you don't think the holes are that bad, that's really encouraging. I hope your expectation of a big 2006 for him proves true. I admit I'd be shocked if he improved so abruptly that he could be ready for any significant AA time next year. Hope I'm wrong, and that his improvement is so exceptional that by next July he'll be dominating high-A and compellingly worthy of AA. Good question. I think the purpose of the minors is to develop major league players. So I would always prioritize what's best for the better prospects. If the Cubs think Fuld has a fair chance to be an asset big-leaguer, perhaps a starting leadoff CF who could play good defense, hit .290, and have a .350+ OBP, then I think what's good for Fuld should override what's good for Collins or JJ Johnson or Chris Walker. So if it was me, I'd have no problem at all giving an AA spot to Fuld over Johnson or Collins. They can bench, or DH, or whatever. If I'm mistaken in thinking that Fuld may actually be a solid major-leaguer, then the outcome might be different.

Full-A is clearly way better than college. But that's not relevant, IMO, to the Fuld question. If Fuld skips one level and jumps to AA at age 24, and that's too much for him and he struggles, I would conclude that he really isn't going to be a significant big-leaguer anyway. If he can't handle that jump at that age, after hitting .320+ for the past three months, he probably isn't good enough to be a significant major leaguer. AFter hitting .320+ for the past three months, I'd think he probably is well ready to advance to AA and perform well. And if he does so, that would confirm that he can be legitimatlely viewed as a genuine prospect. Obviously he can go one step, but if it's 23 at low A, 24 at high A, 25 in AA, 26 in AAA, and 27 before he reaches the majors, that would be one of the oldest major league rookies I know of. I can't think of more than one or two position players who were rookies at age 27, and who ended up being quality starting players. Some fringe guys, yes, but not many asset starters. Most likely Fuld will never be good enough to be a quality starting player. But if he's going to be an asset regular starter down the line, then I assume he'd be able to move more quickly. That's one extreme, obviously. Certainly he can start in Daytona next year, and get promoted mid-year. Then he could begin 2007/age-25 in AA and promote mid-year to Iowa, or begin 2007/age-25 at Iowa. But I guess I'd like to see him producing well at Iowa by 2007/age 25 by mid-season at least, and preferably from the start of the season. Fuld and Harvey seem like totally different cases. Fuld seems to have an advanced eye, remarkable contact guy (<10% K rate), and I have assumed (without really knowing) that he's a pretty polished defensive player. Given his contact profile, I'd guess that he's already able to handle breaking stuff pretty well, and doesn't have any major holes in his swing that are going to get exploited. Given his K/BB profile, I'm assuming he already has an eye for the strike zone. So I guess I don't see why AA would really be too much for him, or exactly what he'll need years of minor-league development to develop or learn. Harvey, different story. He needs to get a clue about what the strike-zone is like. He needs to get an idea of how to recognize breaking pitches. He needs to learn how to keep his stroke consistent. He needs to learn how to put the bat on the ball. He needs to learn how to balance his swing, and how to get the most out of his power without missing the ball all the time. He'll probably never be able to learn all that stuff, but if he is going to learn all that stuff, at best it's going to take him a long, long time. Certainly giving him even a single step may be too much (see Dopirak), and given that he has so much trouble putting the bat on even low-A pitching, he's going to need to improve a lot or he'll get massacred by high-A and certainly AA pitching.

That's some good hitting, for a guy who also takes walks. Also has a miniscule K-rate. Will be interesting to see how he does next year in high-minors. But seems to me that if a guy a) IsoD's like Fuld does, and b) K's as little as Fuld has thus far, then if he can sustain a decent BABIP (as would seem reasonable for a decent runner) he ought to be able to sustain a decent BA and OBP. Suppose he can hit 5 HR per 500 AB, and BABIP at .320, and IsoD at .070. If he can keep his K-rate at 14% (a shade under 10% this year), then he ought to be able to hit .282, and OBP at .352. That's allowing a substantial jump in K's as the result of facing higher pitching, and a diminished IsoD. The only thing that would be sustaining was his HR power and his BABIP. If he could keep at the 5 HR/500AB, BABIP at .320, IsoD at .070, but K at only 10% (this year), then he could hit .295 and OBP at .365. I think he's got a shot to be a pretty good performer next year. My view is that guys who are true-blue contact hitters, and rarely K even though they do walk a fair bit, guys like that are less likely to get blitzed by higher-level pitching. If Harvey's K's jump by 40%, he's K'ing a deathly 41% of his AB. If Fuld's K's jump by 40%, it's still less than 14%. I don't think he'll be that badly blitzed by promotion, unless his swing goes to pot again. Problem is, where will he play? Daytona's CF is entitled to promotion to WTenn. Fuld is obviously entitled to a promotion to WTenn. I guess he'll need to play corner outfield there.

Great to have your input, Bruce. Hendry is a popular guy, and is obviously quite safe. Reality can differ, but he's always said he's on the same page with Dusty and loves Dusty, etc.. Dusty remains the second biggest free agent sign Hendry has ever done, second only to Maddux. It's just a shame that managers need to always be extended in advance. Would be nice to ride things out, but clearly they aren't ready to fire him yet, and probably figure that if he goes into his FA-year, the media hassle will be too much to bear, better to buy it off by extending him. But once you do, then money reasons force you to keep that up until you're finally ready to eat some guaranteed contract. "If healthy, Wood will begin next year as a starter. With so many holes to fill on offense, I don't see them signing a big-name starting pitcher." Bruce This will be interesting to watch. I admit it's kind of scary to envision an opening rotation with at best both Maddux and Williams in it, and in the likely even that Wood or Prior or Z pops an injury, then having a rotation where fading Maddux is the #3 starter and no-stuff Williams is #4. Kind of scary. On the missed signs: Cedeno said a sign was on, but Hairston wasn't running. So during the split second when pitch-is-in-flight, he's watching pitch to hit, he's watching which middle infielder is abandoning position, and he's seeing Hairston standing there, he's got a nanosecond to figure out what to do. Did I miss the sign, and it was really bunt? I'm thinking that Hairston's missing his sign was the problem, and cedeno's "mistake" was a result of Hairston's mistake. Had Hairston caught his sign, Cedeno would have hit-and-run as signed to do. If Dusty gets a 2-year extension, should that then change the winter planning? Maybe try to trade Hill, Cedeno, Murton, and perhaps also Pie now, while their trade stock is high?

Ron or others who have watched or listened to DJaxx games: What's the story on Ryu's fastball velocity this season? If he throws 40 fastballs in a game, what kind of breakdown would you think there would be for >92, 90-92, 87-89, and 83-86? I'm under the impression that he's somewhat like Brownlie, a guy who's going to need to win in spite of his fastball velocity rather than because of it. Is that accurate?

Will be interesting to see how quickly Guzman comes back and pitches again, how many innings he gets before the month is out, and then to see what happens in fall/winter ball. Can somebody clarify for me; I thought I'd read Fleita saying he wanted to have Guzman pitch regular rotation in AFL. But I also thought that AFL wasn't allowed to use players from winter-league countries (ie Venez and DR), in which case Guzman wouldn't even be AFL eligible. Am I crazy? Assuming so, which of those two things am I misremembering? Did Fleita never say anything about him in AFL, or am I wrong that Venezuelans are ineligible for AFL? Or am I correct on both, and Fleita just doesn't know that yet? I'm puzzled. Anyway, will be interesting to see if Guzman can stay healthy enough to continue to pitch effectively for a little while. We've seen that Wood can look great for some simulation throwing, some short rehab starts, and for a start or two with Cubs, but then his problem reappears. They've been saying he can throw for a while, but after the pitches build up the inflammation and pain return. After Connolly got his cortisone shot, he pitched one really good game and felt strong; but after a couple of games the arm hurt again; Prior always seems to look really sharp in his first game after a rehab, but doesn't look quite so strong at regular rotation. We saw Guzman throw 96 or 98 or whatever and look sharp in his first spring game this year; not so fast his 2nd and 3rd, and back to DL by then. We also saw him start off good in his rehab last year, but then be inflamede and hurting again after a month. So it seems it's one thing to get yourself rehabbed well enough to feel good for a couple of innings or a couple of games; but if there is an uncured underlying problem, that tends to cause inflammation and pain after use and seems inevitably to cause recurring problems. Hopefully Guzman is 100% now, and will remain so, and will be good for good. He's had enough medical care, you'd think. Hopefully whatever has caused the varying problems, from his shoulder to his forearm to his elbow, have all been truly cured, and there is no underlying structural problems that will inevitably bite him again once he pitches regularly. But it's going to take more than two innings to demonstrate that the internal structure is healthy and sound. Would sure be awesome if it were.

Serena, sounds like a fun game. Have you seen Billek before, and how did he look? How fast was he? Did he throw many breaking balls and changes, and how did they look? Odd to have an almost no-hitter with almost no K's; were they just htting everything at people, or was he somehow pitching to contact but getting a lot of weak contact? Does he look like he'll be a control pitcher, and hopefully his stuff will be good enough? Or like a guy who might have pretty excellent stuff, and if his control can be solid he might be good? Did he look like he was in pretty good shape, or does he look like he could easily get fat and be a David Wells/Ruben Quevedo type? Thanks in advance. Would be cool if he has a good major-league arm with big-league stuff.

Ramos was drafted out of Puerto Rican HS by Pittsburgh as a catcher. Last year he switched to pitching, with a 1.64 ERA and sub-1 WHIP in 33 innings of shortseason ball. Pittsburgh released him and the Cubs picked him up. He didn't have enough years to qualify as a 6-year-free-agent, so I'm sure Pittsburgh released him. Probably nothing exceptional about his arm or velocity, or they'd have kept him.