craig

One nice thing about the current cubs is that they have no dead contracts. Between the rising payroll and the erasure of dead contracts, Hendry is in a relatively unique situation of having all of his payroll available and invested in players who at least until new injuries arise, should be able to play. For the last 15 years, it's seemed we've pretty much always had some significant dead contracts. Prior the last couple of years. Wood for several years of big money. Sammy's money when we traded him to Baltimore, and for that matter during his last half season for us. Glendon Rusch. Todd Hundley. Jeff Blauser. Mel Rojas. Back in the 90's I can recall being burdened with years of Jose Guzman dead contract, and Mike Morgan. I certainly don't object the kind of dead contracts in the <$2 range such as were invested in Kerry Wood last year, or Dempster's first year, or Wade Miller or Scott Williamson. $1-1.75, that's peanuts. But when you're up at $3 for Prior, that's a little more meaningful. It's kind of refreshing not to have any major commitments to guys who we know aren't going to be ready to play in April.

Thanks, cal. I hadn't realized he had previous part-time experience. That Pac scouts do both amateur and pro ball makes good sense, and indeed isn't surprising. Maybe my expectations were colored by Lee, who never got us close to any Japanese players, and who averaged less than 1 signing per year. I had actually expected that Paul Weaver would be the lead Japanese scout. He is an experienced, respected, fairly well-renowned scout, and he had been the Asian scout or supervisor or something for somebody for several years. So I had expected that he was going to be the experienced guy who'd do Japanese players and whose opinion Hendry would listen to, more so than Wilson who I incorrectly assumed was a newbie. Perhaps the magic here is that they've got both. If one of them likes a guy, perhaps Wilson can do the more volume scouting of a Japanese player they like, because he's always over there. But perhaps Weaver can sort of function as a cross-checker. If both of them see a guy with comparable enthusiasm, maybe that gives more confidence. And then if Hughes also goes over and does sort of the super-scout cross-checking deal, if they all three come back thumbs up, Hendry probably has more confidence than if it was just Weaver or just Wilson. I also recall Wilson commenting that he was establishing a network of part-time scouts. That makes a lot of sense. I've got to think that travel and hotels in Japan and Korea is extremely expensive. If Wilson is getting keyed in on who the really worth-watching guys are, he can be much more efficient. So if he's got a guy or two in Taiwan, somebody in Australia, one or two in Korea, one or two in China, that can help.

I'm guessing the $800k bonus figure is bogus but looking around the net, Cheng has been getting noticed by American agents since at least March. He is only 5'9 but he throws in the low 90s and struck out 14 in 7 no-hit innings in a Taiwanese HS tourney recently. http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v177/Navinda/cheng.jpg Cal, this doesn't relate to Cheng except on the tangent that Steve Wilson is our Asian guy. I'm getting the impression that Wilson is a significant scout. Time will judge whether he's a good one or not. I'd wondered how much action he'd get. I assumed he was a brand new scout, in a generally expensive and somewhat competitive market. I'm now wondering whether he isn't quite a sharp, persuasive, articulate guy that Cub people respect. Within a single year, he's already gotten two dollar amateurs signed in Rhee from Korea and Chen from Taiwan. How many scouts are funded to sign two guys as expensive as that in a give year? Certainly very few stateside scouts. Now we get this report that he's also been trusted/authorized to make a serious offer to Cheng. So, I'm thinking he's being given a lot of budget to spend; they must trust his judgement pretty well. Then, what do I read regarding Fukudome but that Wilson is the guy Hendry mentioned most for having watched Fuku a lot and having recommended him strongly (in addition to Hughes and Weaver). I hadn't realized Wilson was involved at all in Japan or in the Japanese professional leagues, I'd thought he might be only amateur stuff. So now we see him active in Japan, Korea, and Taiwan, at both pro and amateur level, and his input getting valued by Hendry right up there next to Hughes and Weaver. Sounds like he might be one of the most important scouts we've got in the organization. If they respect his input on $48-million Fuku, perhaps they're also going to respect his input on $0.4-0.8 guys like Chen and Cheng and rhee. Hopefully we're going to remain very active and effective in Asia from this point out. that would be really neat.

The problem with saying what trades we should make is always that we don't know what the other team would demand. if Padres demand Hill for Greene, should we do it? Definitely not. If they demand Pie, Gallagher, and Murton, should we do it? I'd think not, but I suppose you could discuss it. Gallagher, Wuertz, and Cedeno, would they take that? Pie, Gallagher, and Wuertz? It seems to me that the board has had kind of a lot of discussions about Greene that have tended to assume he's available at not too bad a price. I don't see where that came from. Greene is a star-fielding SS with exceptional SS power, and he's young. Despite his low OBP, the overall package is above average for a starting SS, and above-average starting SS's cost a mint. I don't imagine the kind of packages that seem realistic for Roberts would come close to getting Greene. I know there was some rumor that at one point Greene's name came up and Pie was mentioned and the Cubs said Pie wasn't available. That doesn't mean they offered Greene for Pie straight, though, or would do so now. Perhaps Pie was one of three names along with marmol and Soto, and when they got to Pie Hendry said forget it. Who knows. But I think it's highly questionable that Greene is currently available for Pie and/or expendable parts.

So where is this rumor coming from? Levine said that we're interested in getting a pitcher? And somebody else said we asked about Burnett? Sounds like Cub-side stuff. I heard we'd like Burnett, and asked about trading Marquis for him. there's probably dozens of pitchers we'd like to trade Marquis for. But where is the rumor that Toronto would have any interest in it? One note: assuming Burnett did well on his $12/1 contract and then declared FA and got a mongo contract, the losing team could get two high draft picks in return. So from Toronto's end, to trade might require that they'd prefer prospects in trade to prospect of two good draft prospects later. From Cub end, you might justify including some prospects if you know that you'll get a couple good prospects back even if you do lose the guy. It's one of the advantages of going after *good* players instead of marginal guys.

thanks for reminding that, nolan. Doesn't Burnett have a history of being a headache personality? The stated rumor obviously seems too good to be true. But there could be three reasons why perhaps there is something to it: a) maybe they think his arm isn't right b) maybe after the hassle, they are just sick of him, and more willing to move him than you'd expect based on statistics alone c) this is his walk year. He's got an opt-out following 08, according to Cots. If there are bitter feelings, they may well figure that he'll walk if he has a good year, and only if he stinks or is hurt will he keep the $12-per in subsequent years. If anything to it, that could be a huge steal for us. Lou might handle a challenging personality pretty well. And rothschild also, I think. Plus, a lot of personality issues don't seem as problematic when a team is winning, which could happen for us this year, especially if Burnett is effective. Probably too good to be true. But it could be a really nifty pickup. Cubs could also be in a kind of good position to take a gamble, pending who might be lost in the process of this and/or other deals. If you got a guy who was good for 20 games but needed a replacement for 10, Marshall and Hart might do a good job filling in even if Gallagher was moved in the hypothetical Roberts rumors.

I think he is much less likely to swing at junk, relative to Pie. He's just so weak that pitchers have no fear about throwing him strikes. And since he's pretty good at contacting the strikes (even if he's so weak that the resulting contact is often weak and outable), it often takes fewer pitches to resolve his AB's than for guys who swing and miss a lot (like Pie). Hard to have a high P/PA ratio when pitchers have pitchers come right at you with strikes (given no fear), and when you often hit strikes when you swing (because you can make contact). Not sure that makes you a hacker or undisciplined. My point is that Theriot will likely be the same hitter with the same limitations whether he's batting 8th, 7th, or 2nd. He's likely to be a lightweight with a low P/PA even if he never swings at a non-strike. But I think for a hacker like Pie, pitchers may have an even easier time getting him to swing at non-strikes if he's batting 8th.

Heh, given only 30 teams in the majors, not more than 15 SS can be above-average starting SS's. None of those 15 average-or-better guys are readily available or come cheap. "Average" is expensive and valuable, in terms of starting SS's as it is with starting pitchers. I think "grows on trees" normally implies that you can find such easily and inexpensively. That does not seem to apply to the average starting SS. Questionable measure, but I used 2007 SS winshares to bracket the "average" SS: Greene (12), Renteria (14), Drew (16), Tejada (17), Furcal (18). The budget and/or talent cost of acquiring any of those players would not be trivial. Guys with Furcal's or Tejada's or Drew's talent do not "grow on trees" and are non-trivial to acquire. Theriot will almost certainly never be as good as average. Cedeno might, but he hasn't come close to that yet, and may never. I hope we can upgrade, and I hope Cedeno is able to do that at no cost in talent or budget. But I don't have a problem in letting the season play itself out, and seeing who plays out as the least awful among Theriot, Cedeno, and DeRosa, in the event that we do acquire Roberts without including Cedeno in the process. If Cedeno emerges as average or close to average, that would be wonderful.

I don't see all the horror. Theriot is mediocre, both defensively and offensively. But average or above-average SS's don't grow on trees or come for nothing. If we're below average at SS, we won't be the first winning team with that. We can win a lot of games with Theriot as a .326-OBP guy; if the salaried guys produce. Some have said that since Lou has tabbed Theriot as starter, that he'll block Cedeno even if Cedeno is better. Others have argued that Theriot had a hot July, without which his numbers are really poor. But I think a good thing is that, if we keep Cedeno, that we can't have it both ways bad. If Cedeno is blocked for long, it will mean Theriot is sustaining an OK OBP and isn't being an auto-out as was true in September and June. If he is doing really bad, with an OBP well below this year's .326, then he's not going to be much of a block to Cedeno, if in fact Cedeno is able to show anything. So either Theriot is much stinkier than he was this year, or he'll block Cedeno. But he can't both really stink and block Cedeno at the same time.

Baltimore could be a good spot for Prior. Not excessive pressure or expectation. Suppose it's August. The Cubs and Padres have contending teams vying for playoff stuff, thanks in part to decent rotations. Baltimore is 20 games behind Boston, and has a rotten rotation. Prior has rehabbed some minor-league starts, and is throwing 87-90, with an erratic curve and control, a 4.75 minor-league ERA, and hasn't gone beyond 70 pitches or 5 innings in any rehab starts. Do Cubs or Padres want to waste a roster spot or waste any real games on a rehabbing Prior? Orioles might, thinking that they can resign him and have him pay off in their rebuilding plan. But Cubs and Padres might be rightfully too occupied with entering and succeeding in the playoffs to waste big-league rehab starts on Prior. On the batting order, I'd have Soto 6, Pie 7, and Theriot 8. Theriot is a contact/discipline guy, so hitting 8th shouldn't kill him. As noted, hacker Pie might see nothing but junk and swing at it anyway if he's hitting 8th.

This is an adjusted list based on a previous Keith Law projection of the sandwich round order, given some signings. This assumes all of the remaining free agents who were offered arbitration sign with other clubs, which may not be true. Philly still hopes to resign Rowand, I have no idea what's up with Feliz or Trever Miller or Mike Cameron, for example. 31. Minnesota (for Torii Hunter, A) 32. Milwaukee (for Francisco Cordero, A) 33. NY Mets (for Tom Glavine, A) 34. Philadelphia (for Aaron Rowand, A) 35. Milwaukee (for Scott Linebrink, A) 36. Kansas City (for David Riske B) 37. San Francisco (for Pedro Feliz) 38. Houston (for Trever Miller) 39. Oakland (for Shannon Stewart/Mike Piazza) 40. St. Louis (for Troy Percival) 41. Atlanta (for Ron Mahay) 42. Chicago Cubs (for Jason Kendall) 43. San Diego (for Doug Brocail) 44. Arizona (for Livan Hernandez) 45. NY Yankees (for Luis Vizcaino) 46. Boston (for Eric Gagne) 47. Oakland (for Shannon Stewart/Mike Piazza) 48. San Diego (for Mike Cameron)

It says something about the market when Jose Guillen at $36/3 with drug stuff coming up besides doesn't even come close to the list.

If you can get Roberts with EPatt as the 3rd guy, that's awesome. I'd assumed the third guy would be Cedeno or some pitcher I value a lot more than EPatt.

Pretty certain that if Murton starts in right, managers will certainly use defensive replacement for Matt whether Pie is in center or not. If Ethier is enough superior to Murton to obviate that practice is encouraging.

thanks, ping. Sounds more adequate than Murton. But average arm and sub-average range sounds like below-average overall. That's too bad. I admit my perceptin has Murton's range as more than slightly below average, so I've tended to view him as a double liability, both the noodle-arm and the range issues. I'm probably slightly overreacting to recent Cub history. But I really would like to assemble a team where all of the starters could qualify as 9-inning players. Last year for a while we'd have Fontenot as a 7-inning 2B who you'd replace ASAP, and Floyd/Murton as 7-inning RFers. That strains the bench, and I think also contributes to a GM/manager building their bench with hitting sacrificed to defense, since late-inning defense is one of the primary responsibilities. If you then do have an injury so that the bench guy is starting, defense-over-offense bench guys hurt the lineup more severely than might be necessary if you hadn't chosen those players with late-inning defense in mind. I'd kind of like to have a bench where you could fit a number of bat-first guys, like Ward and Murton and what I'd hoped Floyd would be if Murton and Jones had hit well from the start. I admit I also kind of like the idea of having every-day players as well as 9-inning players. From that standpoint, Ethier looks fairly interesting. Murton career has a .138-point split, whereas Ethier's is only 0.067. So it would seem that Ethier is not like Pie or Jones, guys who really fall off the table versus LHP. He could play every day, or at last stay in against LHP fairly often without it being a big problem. But if you did platoon, Ethier at .836 career vs RHP with Murton at .901 career vs LHP, that could be a pretty solid combo. I like the idea of getting Fukudome. But if Ethier/Murton could be basically an .850-OPS platoon pair, I'd have to guess that Fukudome will OPS under rather than over .850.

Thanks for the note and the research, cal. Sounds interesting, and surprising. Hope we get him. It's been my impression that the Cubs haven't been quite as height-oriented as they used to be with Hendry/Stockstill in the lead. Wilkin really like Linecum, who's short. Oswaldo Martinez isn't tall. Ascenio is short. The other Chinese pitcher wasn't very tall. Russell is a tall one in the draft, and obviously Samardz. Acosta, not short, but 6'2" isn't exactly tall for a righty either. Lahey is tall, obviously. If you want to be active in Asia and Taiwan in particularly, probably will have more activity if you're willing to sign some guys who aren't all that tall. If this guy got a $400 or $800 offer, you'd think we'd have a good chance to get him. And if they're offering that much on a 5'9" guy, you'd also figure he must have some really jazzy stuff, since you wouldn't normally offer that on a guy so short.

Was noted that Ethier is LH Murton. Is he really as lousy and Pierre-armed defensively in RF as Murton? I don't know much about Ethier's D. But it would be fun to have a 9-inning guy in RF, rather than somebody who you want to take out for a no-hit defensive replacement every time you're winning in the late innings, as with Murton. If Ethier is perfectly satisfactory defensively, I agree that he'd be a very nice fallback option. Young guy who, especially if partnered with Murton, could give you solid low .800's OPS for low pay, and leave the money for elsewhere. It's hopeful that next year, we might have some meaningful new costs. Like, if Wood pitches well his salary could jump. If Prior was to be back and look good 2nd half, he too could be a major expense to retain should we desire. And unpopular as board may consider it, it's even possible that Dempster will turn out to be an effective rotation guy and be an expense next year. I really don't have a sense for Ethier's value in the trade world, or exactly what LA will end up needing. Hill is too much, but if Marshall is too little, what about Marshall/Wuertz? Still too little for them? Way too much for us?

I know this is heresy to be positive or enthusiastic etc., but I very much like the idea of pursuing and getting Roberts, and potentially doing so for 2-3 guys who are nice prospects and might be very productive, but who have some questions marks at present and stand as peripheral players for us, ie are not guys we can't live without. Cedeno, Murton, and Marshall for Roberts? I'd go for that, because I think that Roberts is overall a very good player. I like Murton, but to my eye he's a poor fielder, and while Soriano has many faults, I think Soriano is better than Murton. With LF blocked and no NL DH, Murton doesn't fit. (I don't like his defense in right). I'm hopeful that Cedeno will turn into a pretty solid SS. But he makes a lot of errors, and sometimes looks lazy and dumb. Not sure he'd end up being the SS we want even if we keep him. Roberts seems pretty nice as a guy who fields pretty well, runs well, has a good OBP, etc.. I like the SB, I think it's exciting and can help you score runs. I'm well cognizant that it's value is limited by the CS, but Roberts has asset ratios. And I very much like the idea of having a DeRosa-caliber hitter available on the bench. Benches typically get >1000 AB's. If 400 of them are going to DeRosa rather than an Omar Infante/Neifi/Macias/Cedeno type hitter, that's a huge asset. I would imagine that if they were to acquire both Roberts and Fukudome, I'd guess Soriano would remain leadoff, and Lou would sequence them: Soriano-Roberts-Lee-Aram-Fukudome-Soto-Pie-Theriot. That would break up the righties (Lee and Aram only back-to-back), and keep the speed that Lou likes at the front of the order. Could be a good lineup. I'd be pretty enthused about that.

Not to be a hendry apologist, but just to play devil's advocate... Hendry did not call Fuld an "untouchable". It was Sullivan who used that phrase. What hendry said was that "We're not going to trade Pie, and we're not going to trade him. It's pretty simple." Was Florida calling up to offer Cabrera for Fuld, and Hendry said no? OK, then Hendry is dumb for saying he's not going to trade Fuld. But that's not how it goes. You guys all recognize what Fuld's limits are. So does Hendry and baseball GM's. That's why discussing Fuld trades is pointless. Shopping Fuld gets you nowhere in pursuing a quality major league player. If you want to trade Fuld or if somebody wants to trade for Fuld, you're talking about their Cotts or Fox or Pignatiello guys. Nobody's offering anything worth discussing; if you shop Fuld you won't get anything worth discussing. Every real GM knows that, including Hendry. So he makes a simple comment that it makes no sense to talk about trading Fuld so the media guy should quit asking about it. He's not going to trade him. Because he's untouchable and you wouldn't give him up for Santana? No. Because his trade value is insignificant and there are no more discussions about trades involving Fuld than there are about trades involving other insignificant guys like Matt Avery or Welington Castillo. You don't discuss trades for guys like that. He answered the question primarily in reference to Pie, that he's not going to trade Pie. Is Pie untouchable, and he wouldn't trade Pie for Roberts or Matt Cain? Think as you wish. I think his point is that given the real world, that pie isn't going to get traded this month and it's a waste of time for reporters to spin speculations to that effect. Why not? Because his trade value isn't high enough to get you a player that you can afford to pay and that upgrades you at a position of need. Pie isn't getting you Santana or Linecum or Roberts or Cabrera or Markakis or Pujols or H Ramirez. Is Hendry saying he wouldn't give Pie for guys like that, if in some fantasy asset players were available for Pie and Fuld? I don't think so. I think he's just saying that in the real world, Pie's value isn't high enough to get guys who we want to trade him for. The upgrade possibilities are RF, CF, 2B, SS, and rotation. Presumably they have budget to add one serious contract, and they'd like that for RF. Fukudome could fit. do that, you've filled your lineup, and Pie in center enables the budget to work with good potential besides. Should he be shopping Pie to try to trade for Randy Winn, or for Mark Teahen, or Nate McLouth? Pie's a good prospect, but he's not good enough to get us a quality upgrade at 2B, SS, CF, RF, or rotation. that being the case, Hendry realizes that a Pie trade isn't going to happen. So he can accurately say that Pie isn't going to get traded, and the reporters shouldn't waste time asking questions about it or making up unrealistic trade rumors that are dumb and bogus. What's the big problem?

Preferred options would be a 2-year deal or a pre-arranged non-tender 1-year for less than the $2.8. But that's true for anybody who might trade for him. So why is their interest by other teams? I don't imagine teams are talking trade just so that they can nontender him. If a team wants to trade anything worthwhile for him, they must either: a) think $2.8 for this year is not too much, rehab and impending free agency notwithstanding; b) he'll sign a 2-year or a non-tender cheaper 1 year for them, even though he won't for hendry; or c) they're unafraid of Prior's impending free agency, even though Hendry perhaps is. I understand the notion that Prior at $2.8 on a rehab walk year is a bad contract. But GM's don't normally line up to try to trade for a bad contract. Yet rumors suggest that a number of GM's do want to take on Prior's situation, and may be willing to trade for that opportunity/obligation. (Although I have no idea how much any GM is actually willing to trade.) That team are asking about him suggests that the market does *not* view $2.8/1 to be a bad contract. So I'm puzzled. Q's: If the many other GM's think $2.8/1 is desirable why wouldn't Hendry? How much value are other GM's willing to trade, and if it's even semi-substantial, why? Is there a common market knowledge that Prior wants to leave the Cubs or dislikes Hendry or something? (If so, that might explain why impending free agency would be scarier to Hendry than to some other GM). Or is the reports of discussions mostly baloney and mostly initiated by hendry trying to drum up interest? (Ala trying to shop Corey Patterson two years ago, before giving him for nothing. Or trying to shop Jacque Jones last winter, only to get no strong offers. Or Todd Walker the winter before, again to know strong offers?) I guess I just don't understand why the Cubs would consider Prior's contract to be so bad that they'd seriously consider non-tendering him, while other teams are considering it so desirable that they're trying to trade real talent in order to take it on.

We've heard that a number of teams are interested and Prior's name has come up with a number of teams. Do you have any sense for how much they could get for him? For example, if he could net the caliber of B+ prospect they got for Ohman/Infante, would that be surprisingly good return? Or would you expect more? There was a San Diego rumor, for example, with three B prospect names included. I have no idea what Prior's market is worth at this point. Would the Cubs be lucky to get one B or B+ prospect? Or is there enough interest that they might harvest a couple of pretty interesting prospects? Any feeling? Or is the interest really misleading, and nobody's really offering any more than one Pignatiello or Jake Fox type C prospect? Seems to me they'd probably like to resolve things either way, preferably before the 12th. But if the rumored interest is at all accurate, it would seem that there must be teams who think he's worth the tender price even if the Cubs don't. So I don't see why the 12th needs to really be a deadline. Tender him, and you can still trade him later even if you still can never reach a mutually satisfactory contract.

Bruce, a couple Q's if you're still around or feel like answering. 1. With Ohman gone, do you sense they want to get a LH reliever outside? Big priority? Or do you think they are A-OK to go with status quo? Marshall maybe serving as 2nd lefty/long-reliever role, Cotts and Pigs and presumably some minor-league contract pickups for competition? 2. Ohman seemed to be a guy they moved because they wanted to. Do you sense that there are any other guys like that, time to turn the page guys? Is Cedeno like that, a guy whose talents or personality or whatever they just don't think is a fit, or do you sense that they're comfortable with him and OK with him as a bench guy? 3. From your view, is their anything they are targetting now other than contingency planning and perhaps what to do about Prior? Seems that if they were to get Fukudome, they might not really need to do anything else. They'd have their starters, they'd have 5 bench players (Ward, Blanco, Cedeno, Murton, and Pagan), other than lefty relief maybe a pretty sit-tight pitching staff. My hypothesis is that basically most of the current discussions are shot-in-the-dark explorations ("what would it take to get Roberts?" "OK, that's more than we're willing to give now, but we'll keep that in mind, thanks") and contingency stuff: If we don't get Fukudome, what would it cost for Swisher or you-name-it-alternatives? If we need to trade some of Murton/Cedeno/Pie/Wuertz/Marshall/Dempster/Marquis to fill RF if Fukudome fails, what contingencies are there to replace Murton or Cedeno or Wuertz or Pie etc.? Mostly just contingency planning. Agree or disagree?

this is a joke, obviously. But just as they didn't see Jones as a candidate because they feel certain they'll end up with somebody they perceive as better (whether Fukudome or somebody else), likewise Lou has made it pretty clear that if Fukudome isn't the guy that they will acquire somebody via trade, rather than free agency. Lou made it pretty clear that they don't think that Green or Jenkins or Bradley or any of the FA's are good enough. Again, whatever the cost, they think they are going to come up with somebody better than Jones or guys like that.

Thanks, Bruce. I think that's pretty significant, if true. As is we've got Ward, Blanco, Cedeno, and Murton as bench guys. Maybe Pagan. In a sense you could cover all the positions, if you're satisfied with the quality of Cedeno as first reserve if 2B, SS, or 3B needs a break. If you're satisfied with Blanco if C needs a break. And if you're satisfied with Ward and/or Murton if 1B, LF, or RF need a break. Pagan I suppose would be the only option in center, unless you sign Fukudome and decide to move him to center when Pie needs a break. (Like everytime a LHP starts.) That could be a pretty flexible and fairly decent bench.... if Cedeno hits, and Murton hits, and Pagan can be adequate as Pie's platoon versus LHP. Those are a lot of ifs. But I imagine Murton is a guy they might want or be willing to trade. Ward and Murton are kind of attractive as bench guys, pretty good bats, lefty and righty. But both are also somewhat unattractive as bench guys, in that neither plays any position well defensively. Having one no-defense-good-bat bench guy is one thing. Not sure if Lou wants to live with two guys like that.

I don't agree with this thinking. The Cubs were not going to go into next year with Jones as their primary RF regardless of what happens with Fukudome. If they don't get him, they'll pay whatever price it takes to get somebody they perceive to be more attractive than Jones (even if that perception is wrong, or differs from yours.) It isn't Fukudome or Jones or somebody they perceive to be weaker than Jones. It's Fukudome or somebody they perceive to be better than Jones regardless. In which case moving jones and clearing some salary doesn't strike me as so dumb.