craig

Good point. 3SB/5 games is good, and probably means he runs well. But no, I don't think 3SB/5 games is all that special in DSL, no. He's tied for 3rd on the team, and one of the guys with more has only two hits! I think the pitchers and catchers are so raw that a real burner can pretty much steal at will, and would run a higher percentage of times when he's on base with 2nd or 3rd open. AA has 3 singles plus 5 walks. So if he was a burner, I think he'd have tried to steal more often. Plus I think that if he was a burner, (Juan Pierre, Kenny Lofton, Joey Gathright type speed), he'd be hitting 1st, not 2nd. I could be wrong, but my guess is that if he ends up being a serious prospect or becomes a major leaguer, that base-stealing won't be a major part of his value.

Interesting DSL stat line: Arismendy Alcantara http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Alcantara%20%20SS&pos=&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=570489 Five games in, he's got 7 hits, 4 of them for extra bases....... 3 of them triples. I'm going to tab Alcantara as my first keep-my-eye-on DSL guy. Cons: 1. 5'10". Not likely to be a HR-hitter at that size. 2. Only 3 SB when he's been on so much suggests he's no burner. 3. Batting 2nd. Typically top guys either bat 3rd or 1st. Again, not likely to be either a burner or a power guy. Pros: 1. He'll be 17 all year. One of the younger guys on the Cubs DSL rosters, even if still half a year older than Henry. 2. He's playing SS 3. Unlike 6-figure SS Henry on on Cubs2, who has 7 errors, I'm not sure if he has any, or if so more than one or two 4. Often they rotate playing time and playing positions for guys. But he's all SS every game. 5. They popped him right into a high-order (#2) spot from the start. Not 1st or 3rd, but if he looked like a short, average hitter, those guys often bat low in order. 6. Well, OK, obvious pros include the 1.000 slugging percentage, the .438 batting average, the .591 OBP, and the favorable 5:2 BB/K ratio suggesting both contact skill, plate discipline, and pitch recognition. 7. I think Cubs1 is actually the more experienced, advanced team that is more likely to finish higher in the standings, the varsity with Cubs2 being the junior varsity. That Alc is on the varsity as a rookie 17-year-old may reflect favorably. Obviously being good relative to DSL doesn't prove much for future. It's five games, so teensy sample. And he may be good relative to lousy DSL, but may be already at his ceiling and may never make it out of short-season. Henry is obviously younger and rawer than Alc

It has been inferred from quotes (though I don't have concrete data) that Lake and Castro (and Yohan Gonzalez) received bonuses around $100,000. Thanks. I trust your memory and your inferring powers. That makes sense. Good point. Since free agent prices are inflated, in a sense it puts a ceiling on a guy's perceived value. If a free agent gets paid like a 14th rounder, his perceived value must be no better than a 14th rounder and probably less. Probably better to think of him as a 20th-round talent who got bumped up to 14th-round money by free market forces. All of which I think supports the notion that the Cubs haven't signed any big-hype high-profile Latins since Suarez. Assuming Henry and Yohan Hernandez never do anything, it's not like that should surprise or reflect bad scouting or reflect bad investment, anymore than when the normal 15th or 20th or 25th rounder doesn't work out. No, I hadn't seen those. Thanks for sharing those, really really interesting. Most notable to me is the stuff about the pitchers, and what poor predictors K/BB are for DSL prospects. I am surprised it's true to that extent, but I am glad to see this kind of information being publicized. It seems to me that K/BB is such a favorite of sabers that it gets used too frequently in projecting young prospects. As BA suggests, the kind of velocity and breaking ball that a pitcher will have at age 25 may have very little resemblance to what he had at 17 or 20. A lot of the Latin kids are signed because they either throw hard or project to possibly do so later. Having any kind of a breaking ball is a bonus (and can boost their signing bonus), but is not required.

Phil's comments about Cerda were noteworthy, that he doesn't look like he'll be able to catch or infield, and then blames the seemingly wasted 4th round pick on Fleita. I think it might be best if the Cubs didn't rely on Fleita too much for scouting.

Question one: Cal, you mention Lake and Castro having gotten 6-figures. I hadn't realized that. Do you have any numbers on them? Point two: IMB, you note that it "Seems like we sign a hyped-up guy or two every year", but that hasn't been true recently. We haven't signed a hyped-up guy since Suarez. We signed Suarez for almost a million; at present it looks like he's well worth that. We signed Pie for big dollars, and Alfredo Franciso years ago. I believe Yohan Gonzalez (??) got a couple hundred K a couple years back, so maybe he'd be like a 7th round gamble, and perhaps Castro and Lake came in the 0.1-0.2 range, but they weren't exactly "hyped up" guys when they signed. If this year the "hyped up guys or two" are $0.11 and $0.14, that's pretty low. We're routinely spending those kinds of dollars for guys drafted in the 10th-15th rounds, or higher. We aren't shocked when a 14th rounder doesn't work out. So at present, it might be fair to view our Latin crowd as being taking a bunch of flyers on some 13th-80th round type guys, with a couple being 13th-round pick caliber. If you do that and get a Castro, once in a while, we probably shuoldn't complain that we don't get a Castro every year. Point being, we haven't competed for any hyped up guys since Suarez. Point 3: You can't tell if a guy is a meaningful prospect there, but I think you can tell if he isn't. Cal, your point that it's hard to tell until guys come over, that's true. There are guys who have hit as well as Lake and Castro who haven't done anything here. And there are always pitchers who show some interesting numbers there, who end up being nonfactors. But, Lake and Castro were obviously interesting pretty quickly. They batted 3rd/1st as 17-year-olds playing middle infield, both hit well, Lake showed power that few Cub hitters have done there, and Castro was an all-star, something which has been very rare for any young Cub prospects over there. I hadn't know they'd even gotten 15th round money, but they clearly stood out that year as the two best Latin position guys in years. I guess my point is, we can't always tell if a guy with good stats there will be good here, but I think we can pretty quickly write off guys who aren't good there. I think pitchers are harder to figure than hitters. Hitters, you can look at what position they play, where in the lineup they get used, how many errors they make, whether they steal bases, whether they whiff a lot. You can tell quite a bit pretty quickly. For pitchers, much harder. Usually the better prospects get used as starters and work more innings, but not always, especially for some of the younger ones or ones signed later.

sandberg, keep up the great game reports. The Searle and Alb reports are encouraging. Quite the streak for Chirinos. I can only imagine how fired up we'd have been if he'd had a couple of games like this 5 or 6 years ago. You mentioned Sasser yesterday, he's having a good year. How fast does he throw, and do you know what he's got besides fastball?

Thanks much for the report, especially for some of these guys who we don't discuss that much. Good to hear that Cashner looked good and fast, and didn't have any visible injury reason to get pulled. Nice to hear that Samson's defense looks good. I haven't thought much about him, given that his power has been on the Joey Gathright side. (He has three extra base hits thus far...) But in looking, he's got a .361 OBP. Samson has a most remarkable stat line: 20BB/4K/124AB. Wow, when's the last time we had a hitter with 20BB to 4 K? Obviously he isn't drawing any pitch-around-him walks, that's for sure. And obviously he isn't keeping his K's so low by swinging early. Guys with .282 slugging, that's not too exciting. But, he's still only 21. Hopefully by the time he's 24 he'll have doubles power. And perhaps at some point he'll let it rip a little more and hit the ball a little harder, even if his K's do go up some. Do we know anything scouting-wise on Sasser? 21st rounder isn't inspiring, and 23-year-old in A-ball isn't inspiring either, and he has no attention-grabbing peripherals or anything. But he had an ERA under 3 last year, and it's under 2 this year, and he's been strongly GB-oriented both years. Walks quite a few, it seems. Is it possible that he might have enough arm to make it as a Loogy someday? Thanks for report on Al Alb, I haven't given him much thought either. He's still 22, and having misses as much time as he has it's not like he's a fossil. If he's throwing a smooth 95, he's got some pretty snazzy K/BB/ERA/GO stats. Keep an eye on him guy, I'd guess. Don't want to fry his oft-injured arm, of course, but if safe I wouldn't mind see him throwing more innings. He's a guy who's been around forever, he may need to be put on the 40-man this winter, if they want to protect from Rule 5, but he may actually be eligible for 6-year free agency otherwise, too. Nice to have the DSL games going again.

That's only 15 batters, and with only one K and one walk, not sure there needed to be lots of long counts. Did he really exhaust his pitch count in 15 batters? Or is the blister problem or some other problem back?

That's at least 5 doubles off the wall this year for him....I would like to believe those can become homers as he matures and progresses. That's a good point. Burke has some plusses, the very good arm and apparently pretty decent corner defense. His current career-high BA benefits from a .370 BABIP, which I don't think he'll sustain. He's still a high-K guy. Last year he K'd 28% of his AB, this year 22% and he really hasn't hit a slump yet. I hope he continues to be able to curtail his K-rate, I'd like to see that get below 20% or less, and perhaps with experience that will happen. But when a guy is still K'ing that much in A- in his 4th year as a pro, I suspect that Burke is always going to be K-oriented. Assuming he always K's fairly much, it's critical that he eventually hits enough HR's to sustain a decent BA/OBP despite the K's. If the guy has a normal/good BABIP (say .310, for example), and has a high K rate (say 22%, for example), a 25-HR guy can hit in the .270's, but a 10-HR guy will hit .250. For Burke as a strong-armed corner, winning teams could start him as a .275BA/25HR guy. But they won't as a .250BA/10HR K-guy. So I think it's critical that he hit enough HR's to keep not only his slugging but also his average and OBP up, and to offset the K's. Hopefully that will happen.

Cal, thanks very, very much for so faithfully linking in Phil's Mesa reports.

Iowa (game two): RHP Kevin Hart (0-3, 5.18 ERA, 24.1 IP, 28 K/7 BB) Daytona: RHP Ryan Searle (3-2, 2.43 ERA, 37 IP, 19 K/10 BB) Those two are highlights of how ERA can disconnect with K/BB. Hart's K/BB is much better; who'd have guessed his ERA is also more than twice as high?

Hmm. I'd like to see Clevenger play more. Not sure moving him from a 2-catcher roster to a 3-catcher roster, one of whom is hitting .370, will help. Will be interesting to see what they do with 1B. Deeds, Dubois, Johnson, and Clevenger could all conceivably get some action, but the manager will probably use only one or two of them.

Tennessee gets 3 each in each of the last two innings to rally to an 8-6 game in the opener. Daytona's game is on a record pace for speed, and cashner has lasted through 5 innings, with 5K/0BB/0WP/0HBP/3 hits, two of them in the first inning. He finally allowed a couple of flyouts in the 5th, which may suggest he's tired. Peoria in a "rain delay".

Cales ends up scattering 7 hits and 4 runs over his inning, Tennessee down 6-2. Daytona has now buzzed through three innings, and Cashner with his best outing yet, he's allowed 3 hits through 3, but has gotten 3 K's without any walks, wild pitches, or hit batters. He's gotten one popout, but otherwise all the other balls in play have been groundouts or hits on the ground. Nice. Not to jinx him, but he's got a chance to go four today.

Daytona is actually playing tonight. Castro gets another single and gets thrown out stealing in the top of first, then Cashner quickly gives up a couple of hits and a run in the bottom, although he got through the entire inning with no walks, wild pitches, or hit batters. He's had an extended break through the rain. I'm going to guess he'll be able to get in three innings today, perhaps even sneak in four under his pitch count. I think Cales is either pretty overmatched or pretty badly out of rhythm at Tennessee. He's allowed 5 hits already and hasn't gotten out of his first inning.

Hey Nate, thanks for your feedback and regular input. You mentioned that Jeff Beliveau is slated to move back into the rotation. I'll probably jinx him by mentioning it, but he's been on quite a high-K's low-hits run. I'm guessing that his fastball is good-but-unexceptional velocity-wise, maybe in the typical 88-92 class, but that it moves a lot and that his breaking ball does also. I'm guessing that both move enough to be both hard to hit and hard to control. Am I close, or way off? If you can you tell us about what he throws and how fast; whether he's as wild as his stats suggest; and why he's so hard to hit, that would be much appreciated. Also, does he have a normal sort of delivery, or something funky that is hard to hit and hard to control? Finally, in terms of delivery, does he have a normal arm slot, or some side-arm that might make him tough on lefties and someday suit him as a LOOGY were he to make it all the way to the majors? thanks!

BBF guy reported a conversation with his friend who scouts with Baltimore, regarding Thomas. Key comments: 1. Defense is now average at all levels, even including turning the double. No reason at present to move to outfield. 2. Speed is above average, not as fast as Patterson but faster than Theriot. And has good baserunning instincts. 3. Has a slight uppercut that hasn't affected his contact. 4. Has been called out on strikes 12 times. Has obviously made an effort to go deeply into the count. My comment: those are all plus-plus-plus-plus comments. That his HR/power bump correlates some useful but not harmful lift is great. BA always says his speed is average, so the view that he's faster than Theriot, that's great. That his baserunning is good, that's nice (getting picked off twice on Monday made me wonder...) And mostly that his 2B defense is now looking average and big-league playable, that's the best of all. That his still high K-rate relates to being more patient (and perhaps also swinging for more power) is also good. Hope it's all true!

Agree with point about getting optionable utility guys and relievers from the system. Obviously the excitement over a potential utility in A- isn't going to match that of a potentially good starter. So I'm not sure "excited" would be the word, but I'm genuinely interested in harrison. I'm always genuinely interested in players who look like they can just hit. So while I am no scout or expert and haven't watched them, I would put Harrison much higher on my interest list than where UK had him.

I think he gets limited discussion in part because there isn't a lot to discuss or to project. We know what he can do: he can hit. And we know what he can't do: grow beyond 5'8", hit HR's, steal significant bases in the majors, or play SS. Even his 2B defense seems to be less promising than Lake or Flaherty etc. I'm not sure, but it may also be that his arm may preclude RF and perhaps also CF, I don't know. But it looks like he's probably a 2B/LF type. With his power limitation, it's hard to get fired up about him for LF. That said, hitting is the rarest and most valuable tool, and I am always interested in pure hitters. Guys who can really hit, you can put up with some less-than-gold-glove defense. He's not going to be perfect, but often teams end up choosing between imperfect players, and sometimes the guy who can flat-out hit ends up being the preferred choice.

Not sure I'm following exactly. But I think I your claim is pretty simple: he's a fly ball pitcher so he's more prone to HR's. I wonder. He's never allowed HR's. This is his third pro season, and he's allowed only 4 HR in around 150 innings. He was really good last year (3 HR in 67 innings), but he was much better his draft year (none) and this year (one). In 4 aluminum-bat college seasons of almost 200 innings, he allowed only 6 HR, which I think is also rather favorable. Maybe he really is sustainably anti-HR, for whatever reason? (Mind you, I don't have any great theory of why he should be....) Lambert has a remarkable and fun bbcube page: none of the 9 college/pro lines has an ERA above 3. http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/L/Casey-Lambert-1.shtml Again, I don't know why he doesn't allow HR's. Maybe it's that very consistency; lots of HR's come not on good fastballs/curves but on bad ones, on mistakes. Perhaps he's just got unusually consistent control of the stuff he throws and rarely makes mistakes, even if none of the stuff ever looks exceptional? Or maybe his fastball has more life and run then we appreciate? Maybe he mixes and commands so well that hitters are off balance, and a lot of the air outs are weak off-balance pops and easy flies rather than rockets? Beats me.

Lambert is a totally puzzling case to me. I pictured him as a curveballing Loogy, but I don't think that jives so well. I assume a lefty curveballer will be hard on lefties, will strike people out on the curve, but will have control issues and will allow HR's when curve hangs or guys can sit on mild fastball. But all of that is wrong: 1. since his draft summer, lefties have hit him much better than righties. 2. This year he isn't K'ing many. 3. This year he's 10 walks/38 innings. 4. This year he's 1HR/38 innings, last year 3HR/67 innings. 5. This year he's been air-oriented. So either my scouting perception is pretty screwed up (almost certainly true), and/or his results this year are pretty weird and very likely not very sustainable (unfortunately that is probably true). His start hasn't gotten tons of attention, in large part because his K's are so low and we assume it's fluky to do well without K's. Probably true. But, hopefully not: if you don't walk people and you don't allow HR's, you don't need a lot of K's or a lucky BABIP to be effective. Probably the big question is whether he can actually keep the walks and the HR's down so well as he's done thus far.

Thanks much for your observations about the Daytona kids. sounds like you have seen a lot of action, and it's fantastic to get observations from somebody who has seen them. Again, thanks much, and I hope that you will post what you see and what you think more often. Thanks especially for the Searles report, if he's 90-93+, with the groundball action, that sounds fantastic, and as you say hardly "fringy". What would you say McDaniel is for velocity? Same kind or range, or not quite that fast? And, can you tell whether he's mostly fastball/breaking ball, or have you seen him throw what might be a changeup as well? One of the other pitchers of interest is Dolis. I assume he's got quite a good fastball, an interesting breaking ball, and major control problems. But I've never seen him and I'm kind of just guessing. have you seen him, and does that sound right?

Other guy at BBF saw Huseby the other day and said he looked good, no gun but thought he looked fast, had a good breaking pitch, had good control, and two of the three hits were infield hits. So that was encouraging. Unfortunately ping left before Beliveau went tonight. 8K/0H/4IP (2 walks). His previous outing was 3IP-6K-1H (2 walks). This is back to the Beli I recall from last summer, huge K's, lots of walks. after a slow start, in which his stuff obviously wasn't sharp and guys were getting hits off him, he's now sitting at 29K/15BB/23IP. Over his last 19 innings, it's 26K/14BB/11H/19IP.

Has he been unlucky? The BAA and K:BB look pretty solid to see the ERA that high. No, not at all. He's allowed 5 HR.