craig

So what's your guess, Cal? That the Cubs think that he's more top 50, worth a million, than a 2nd/3rd round bubble guy who's good but not top-60 good? Or that they've done enough calling and research to think that he'll sign for 2nd/3rd round bubble money rather than 1st round? Also, after re-reading the BA, PG, and mlb scouting reports, have the Cubs given any indication whether they envision him as a pitcher or as a leadoff CFer? I've been assuming LHP, but the reports seemed pretty uncertain about which way he'd go.

I'm surprised. I'm not all that up on the scouting, but from the reports posted in this thread I didn't get the impression he was viewed as either a 1st-round outfielder or as having a big-time 1st-round arm. The Cubs seem unlikely to spend a 6th round pick on him unless they think they can sign him. If they think they can sign him, either they think he won't demand 7 figures, or else that he's worth 7 figures. If they think he's worth a million, or even close, then they must view him much more enthusiastically than the scouting reports would suggest. If he's much better than the impression I got from the scouting reports, that's good news. I'd think they should have pretty thoroughly both scouted him as a player, and done due diligence in terms of his asking price. They should know what they think he's worth. (It's not like with Alex Wilson last year, where they needed to see him pitch in the summer to know what they might offer.)

I expect Lemahieu will sign. He's 2nd round, and as a 2B he'll need to add a lot of HR's to make 1st round million next year, whereas if he doesn't add many HR's he could easily drop enough so that he'll barely make 6 figures. It's definitely much smarter for him business-wise to take 2nd round money now. And I'm sure the Cubs have done enough research to know that they're willing to pay what it will take to sign him. Don't know whether we'll do any major superslots, ala Huseby, or even Rundle or Watkins. But I expect that there will be a lot of at least mild superslot offers going out to the players drafted in rounds 10-50. I think they will be making 6-figure offers to a huge number of them, plus college scholarship offer to the HS/JC picks. How many will bite, we'll see. Not sure how they budget for draft, but consider that we've had very high (Vitters) pick, or sandwich picks (Donaldson, Flaherty) each of last two years. Jackson won't cost much different from Flaherty. I would guess that jackson/Flaherty will cost no more than Flaherty/Shafer did. So basically it's like we have Cashner's bonus unspent. Compared to Vitters/Donaldson, we'll also have a couple million unspent. I have no reason to expect they have any intention to spend as much as they did the last two drafts. But if they have any availability of coming anywhere close, I think they could potentially have a lot of room to offer an awful lot of guys $200K superslot offers.

I'd wondered if they'd spend last night calling some signability guys who had slipped who might be somewhat signable after all, or might be summer draft-and-follow candidates. But as they enter round 37, five of the first six picks today have been college-age roster fillers, only one CC pick and no HSers yet today.

11/4/1986 If he throws 91-93 and tops at 94, would seem like a nice pick in the 9th round, much less the 26th. This is the area in the draft where the "unlikely a club will but him out" applies. I assume we'll offer him $0.1 or something, he'll decline, then we'll watch him pitch in another summer league, and decide whether he's worth any more than that. Would seem a classic case of a summer draft-and-follow, much like Erickson. (Although Grife would seem certain to be pitching in a summer league; whether Erickson is rehabbed enough to do so, I don't know.) Odd thing with Grife is that he'll turn 23 this fall. Seems odd that he'd be putting up won't-sign signals at that age. He's that eager to go back into the draft next year, when as an old 23-going-on-24-year old he'll have no leverage? Very strange. If the Cubs give him a decent offer, he'd be wise to sign now and get on with his career.

BA ranks him the 109th best prospect in California. Sounds like a guy drafted to pitch.

Was he projected to be drafted before the arm injury? If so how high? I suspect he must have been pretty well regarded. Miami is a huge program that can recruit selectively for real talent, and given the talent they have you don't make the rotation as a freshman unless you've got some talent too. He was a rotation guy right off the bat as a freshman, 13 starts 2.5 ERA, 9-1, 63K/16BB. I'm guessing he's a guy who'll plan to go back to Miami, pitch next spring, and get fairly high-round draft and money next year. And I assume the Cubs will watch him this summer, see if they think his arm is sound, and then make him an offer, as with Alex Wilson last year. Probably won't sign, because whatever we offer he'll probably figure he can make more a year from now.

Through 12, the Cubs have drafted only two players older than 20. The Citadel DH and the Kentucky pitcher who turns 23 later this year.

Signability is standard research scouting. And often they call guys with signability questions before they pick them, to confirm their leanings. So I assume that unless somebody has Alex Wilson-style ceiling and cost expectation, that the others are guys they expect to be signable at whatever slot or superslot the Cubs anticipate being willing to pay. In terms of superslot, it seems the cubs haven't superslotted a lot with top-10 picks. They did with Cerda last year, of course, and were willing to with Wilson. And obviously big-time with Logan Watkins in the 20's. But more often it's seemed like they've gone with mild superslots with most of their teens picks. Acosta, Russell, Gallagher, Coleman, McDaniel, it seems like their norm is to be willing to pay teens picks with the kinds of bonuses that are more typical for 4th-9th rounders.

Thanks, cal. The comment on catching depth being a strength is surprising; seems within the month he's been quoted as saying that catching is one of the weaknesses.

Sure, I think it's safe to say that he runs well, and of course 8 non-error times no 1B is small sample. By "con", I didn't mean to imply he has below-average speed, just that he wasn't a burner, by which I meant a guy where base-stealing is one of the virtues that defines his game and gets him promoted. Reed Johnson/Fukudome/Fontenot/Scales, they run fine. One other little symptoms, several of the other guys have attempted multiple stolen bases in a game. I think there are at least five guys who have have run at least twice, and at least one who has attempted three in a game. Somebody like that, might be a burner.

Good point. 3SB/5 games is good, and probably means he runs well. But no, I don't think 3SB/5 games is all that special in DSL, no. He's tied for 3rd on the team, and one of the guys with more has only two hits! I think the pitchers and catchers are so raw that a real burner can pretty much steal at will, and would run a higher percentage of times when he's on base with 2nd or 3rd open. AA has 3 singles plus 5 walks. So if he was a burner, I think he'd have tried to steal more often. Plus I think that if he was a burner, (Juan Pierre, Kenny Lofton, Joey Gathright type speed), he'd be hitting 1st, not 2nd. I could be wrong, but my guess is that if he ends up being a serious prospect or becomes a major leaguer, that base-stealing won't be a major part of his value.

Interesting DSL stat line: Arismendy Alcantara http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Alcantara%20%20SS&pos=&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=570489 Five games in, he's got 7 hits, 4 of them for extra bases....... 3 of them triples. I'm going to tab Alcantara as my first keep-my-eye-on DSL guy. Cons: 1. 5'10". Not likely to be a HR-hitter at that size. 2. Only 3 SB when he's been on so much suggests he's no burner. 3. Batting 2nd. Typically top guys either bat 3rd or 1st. Again, not likely to be either a burner or a power guy. Pros: 1. He'll be 17 all year. One of the younger guys on the Cubs DSL rosters, even if still half a year older than Henry. 2. He's playing SS 3. Unlike 6-figure SS Henry on on Cubs2, who has 7 errors, I'm not sure if he has any, or if so more than one or two 4. Often they rotate playing time and playing positions for guys. But he's all SS every game. 5. They popped him right into a high-order (#2) spot from the start. Not 1st or 3rd, but if he looked like a short, average hitter, those guys often bat low in order. 6. Well, OK, obvious pros include the 1.000 slugging percentage, the .438 batting average, the .591 OBP, and the favorable 5:2 BB/K ratio suggesting both contact skill, plate discipline, and pitch recognition. 7. I think Cubs1 is actually the more experienced, advanced team that is more likely to finish higher in the standings, the varsity with Cubs2 being the junior varsity. That Alc is on the varsity as a rookie 17-year-old may reflect favorably. Obviously being good relative to DSL doesn't prove much for future. It's five games, so teensy sample. And he may be good relative to lousy DSL, but may be already at his ceiling and may never make it out of short-season. Henry is obviously younger and rawer than Alc

It has been inferred from quotes (though I don't have concrete data) that Lake and Castro (and Yohan Gonzalez) received bonuses around $100,000. Thanks. I trust your memory and your inferring powers. That makes sense. Good point. Since free agent prices are inflated, in a sense it puts a ceiling on a guy's perceived value. If a free agent gets paid like a 14th rounder, his perceived value must be no better than a 14th rounder and probably less. Probably better to think of him as a 20th-round talent who got bumped up to 14th-round money by free market forces. All of which I think supports the notion that the Cubs haven't signed any big-hype high-profile Latins since Suarez. Assuming Henry and Yohan Hernandez never do anything, it's not like that should surprise or reflect bad scouting or reflect bad investment, anymore than when the normal 15th or 20th or 25th rounder doesn't work out. No, I hadn't seen those. Thanks for sharing those, really really interesting. Most notable to me is the stuff about the pitchers, and what poor predictors K/BB are for DSL prospects. I am surprised it's true to that extent, but I am glad to see this kind of information being publicized. It seems to me that K/BB is such a favorite of sabers that it gets used too frequently in projecting young prospects. As BA suggests, the kind of velocity and breaking ball that a pitcher will have at age 25 may have very little resemblance to what he had at 17 or 20. A lot of the Latin kids are signed because they either throw hard or project to possibly do so later. Having any kind of a breaking ball is a bonus (and can boost their signing bonus), but is not required.

Phil's comments about Cerda were noteworthy, that he doesn't look like he'll be able to catch or infield, and then blames the seemingly wasted 4th round pick on Fleita. I think it might be best if the Cubs didn't rely on Fleita too much for scouting.

Question one: Cal, you mention Lake and Castro having gotten 6-figures. I hadn't realized that. Do you have any numbers on them? Point two: IMB, you note that it "Seems like we sign a hyped-up guy or two every year", but that hasn't been true recently. We haven't signed a hyped-up guy since Suarez. We signed Suarez for almost a million; at present it looks like he's well worth that. We signed Pie for big dollars, and Alfredo Franciso years ago. I believe Yohan Gonzalez (??) got a couple hundred K a couple years back, so maybe he'd be like a 7th round gamble, and perhaps Castro and Lake came in the 0.1-0.2 range, but they weren't exactly "hyped up" guys when they signed. If this year the "hyped up guys or two" are $0.11 and $0.14, that's pretty low. We're routinely spending those kinds of dollars for guys drafted in the 10th-15th rounds, or higher. We aren't shocked when a 14th rounder doesn't work out. So at present, it might be fair to view our Latin crowd as being taking a bunch of flyers on some 13th-80th round type guys, with a couple being 13th-round pick caliber. If you do that and get a Castro, once in a while, we probably shuoldn't complain that we don't get a Castro every year. Point being, we haven't competed for any hyped up guys since Suarez. Point 3: You can't tell if a guy is a meaningful prospect there, but I think you can tell if he isn't. Cal, your point that it's hard to tell until guys come over, that's true. There are guys who have hit as well as Lake and Castro who haven't done anything here. And there are always pitchers who show some interesting numbers there, who end up being nonfactors. But, Lake and Castro were obviously interesting pretty quickly. They batted 3rd/1st as 17-year-olds playing middle infield, both hit well, Lake showed power that few Cub hitters have done there, and Castro was an all-star, something which has been very rare for any young Cub prospects over there. I hadn't know they'd even gotten 15th round money, but they clearly stood out that year as the two best Latin position guys in years. I guess my point is, we can't always tell if a guy with good stats there will be good here, but I think we can pretty quickly write off guys who aren't good there. I think pitchers are harder to figure than hitters. Hitters, you can look at what position they play, where in the lineup they get used, how many errors they make, whether they steal bases, whether they whiff a lot. You can tell quite a bit pretty quickly. For pitchers, much harder. Usually the better prospects get used as starters and work more innings, but not always, especially for some of the younger ones or ones signed later.

sandberg, keep up the great game reports. The Searle and Alb reports are encouraging. Quite the streak for Chirinos. I can only imagine how fired up we'd have been if he'd had a couple of games like this 5 or 6 years ago. You mentioned Sasser yesterday, he's having a good year. How fast does he throw, and do you know what he's got besides fastball?

Thanks much for the report, especially for some of these guys who we don't discuss that much. Good to hear that Cashner looked good and fast, and didn't have any visible injury reason to get pulled. Nice to hear that Samson's defense looks good. I haven't thought much about him, given that his power has been on the Joey Gathright side. (He has three extra base hits thus far...) But in looking, he's got a .361 OBP. Samson has a most remarkable stat line: 20BB/4K/124AB. Wow, when's the last time we had a hitter with 20BB to 4 K? Obviously he isn't drawing any pitch-around-him walks, that's for sure. And obviously he isn't keeping his K's so low by swinging early. Guys with .282 slugging, that's not too exciting. But, he's still only 21. Hopefully by the time he's 24 he'll have doubles power. And perhaps at some point he'll let it rip a little more and hit the ball a little harder, even if his K's do go up some. Do we know anything scouting-wise on Sasser? 21st rounder isn't inspiring, and 23-year-old in A-ball isn't inspiring either, and he has no attention-grabbing peripherals or anything. But he had an ERA under 3 last year, and it's under 2 this year, and he's been strongly GB-oriented both years. Walks quite a few, it seems. Is it possible that he might have enough arm to make it as a Loogy someday? Thanks for report on Al Alb, I haven't given him much thought either. He's still 22, and having misses as much time as he has it's not like he's a fossil. If he's throwing a smooth 95, he's got some pretty snazzy K/BB/ERA/GO stats. Keep an eye on him guy, I'd guess. Don't want to fry his oft-injured arm, of course, but if safe I wouldn't mind see him throwing more innings. He's a guy who's been around forever, he may need to be put on the 40-man this winter, if they want to protect from Rule 5, but he may actually be eligible for 6-year free agency otherwise, too. Nice to have the DSL games going again.

That's only 15 batters, and with only one K and one walk, not sure there needed to be lots of long counts. Did he really exhaust his pitch count in 15 batters? Or is the blister problem or some other problem back?

That's at least 5 doubles off the wall this year for him....I would like to believe those can become homers as he matures and progresses. That's a good point. Burke has some plusses, the very good arm and apparently pretty decent corner defense. His current career-high BA benefits from a .370 BABIP, which I don't think he'll sustain. He's still a high-K guy. Last year he K'd 28% of his AB, this year 22% and he really hasn't hit a slump yet. I hope he continues to be able to curtail his K-rate, I'd like to see that get below 20% or less, and perhaps with experience that will happen. But when a guy is still K'ing that much in A- in his 4th year as a pro, I suspect that Burke is always going to be K-oriented. Assuming he always K's fairly much, it's critical that he eventually hits enough HR's to sustain a decent BA/OBP despite the K's. If the guy has a normal/good BABIP (say .310, for example), and has a high K rate (say 22%, for example), a 25-HR guy can hit in the .270's, but a 10-HR guy will hit .250. For Burke as a strong-armed corner, winning teams could start him as a .275BA/25HR guy. But they won't as a .250BA/10HR K-guy. So I think it's critical that he hit enough HR's to keep not only his slugging but also his average and OBP up, and to offset the K's. Hopefully that will happen.

Cal, thanks very, very much for so faithfully linking in Phil's Mesa reports.

Iowa (game two): RHP Kevin Hart (0-3, 5.18 ERA, 24.1 IP, 28 K/7 BB) Daytona: RHP Ryan Searle (3-2, 2.43 ERA, 37 IP, 19 K/10 BB) Those two are highlights of how ERA can disconnect with K/BB. Hart's K/BB is much better; who'd have guessed his ERA is also more than twice as high?

Hmm. I'd like to see Clevenger play more. Not sure moving him from a 2-catcher roster to a 3-catcher roster, one of whom is hitting .370, will help. Will be interesting to see what they do with 1B. Deeds, Dubois, Johnson, and Clevenger could all conceivably get some action, but the manager will probably use only one or two of them.

Tennessee gets 3 each in each of the last two innings to rally to an 8-6 game in the opener. Daytona's game is on a record pace for speed, and cashner has lasted through 5 innings, with 5K/0BB/0WP/0HBP/3 hits, two of them in the first inning. He finally allowed a couple of flyouts in the 5th, which may suggest he's tired. Peoria in a "rain delay".