craig

I have a confession. I developed Steve Blass disease.... as a slow-pitch softball pitcher! And it wasn't physical. I pitched in unlimited arch men's leagues in Wisconsin for a couple of years, and with the rules at the time (3-ball 2-strikes, with strikeout even if you hit the second strike foul; balls don't need to go through strike zone to be strikes, rather the zone defined by whether the ball lands on the plate itself or on a mat that extended another 2 feet or so behind the plate) I had a couple of games in which I record double-figure K's in 7-inning games. (If you get a strike on the first pitch, then you can throw it with 25 feet of arch and hitters will still swing, often with little chance to do much since the downward velocity is pretty fast and the downward arc is so steep.) But, I got Blass disease. Started to get too tricky, and try to do more with the ball, whether that be side-spins in the wind, or backspins, or more arch than I could really handle. Then, somewhat suddenly, I lost it. Trying to get back to original consistently good delivery, I started thinking and analyzing, from which ensued a downward spiral of compensate/correction attempts, which never succeeded. Once I started thinking too much, I couldn't just relax and let the ball go. The arm stroke lost any consistency, and I'm always trying to get it back, to compensate for what I'm doing wrong. Even when I have some good ones, the second I throw two bad balls back-to-back, the thought comes back "Are you losing it again? What are you doing wrong now, what were you doing right the first three innings that you're not doing this inning?" Obviously I'm no professional athlete like Blass or Hill. But I imagine that confidence stuff, and the thinking about control instead of just throwing the ball over the plate (or underhand lobbing the ball as was my case) just drives you nuts.

It's pretty remarkable how ineffective the Cubs have been in Latin America. I imagine this might be partly a Fleita effect. He ran the show for a while and hired the primary scouts, Serra and Ortega. It's not clear whether either is a very good scout down there. The job requires work (lots of players and scrounging around to find them). And lots of persuasiveness (everybody is a free agent. A smart scout in U.S. can project talent, and doesn't need to be like a college recruiter; you draft the guy, he has not option. But down there, you need to both recognize who's worth it and also persuade him that he should sign with you instead of the other 29 teams.) And lots of money. And scouting brains. You can say Alfredo Francisco and Larry Suarez are really special, but if Franscisco can't hit anything, and Suarez can't find the plate and has a surgery-destined delivery, you're sunk too. We've really been inept down there. Not sure which combination of factors kill us, but somehow or other Serra and Ortega have absolutely not gotten the job done.

This is totally unrealistic. Vitters is 18, in short season. You think it's likely that three years from now, at age 21, we'll be seeing him as a factor? And if things go well you expect him to be up in two years, at age 20? that's ridiculously over-optimistic. He's 5 steps from the major leagues. So if he has no setbacks and never has to repeat, he could be in Wrigely in 2013, at a youthful age 23. Good chance that he won't advance that fast and will need to repeat a level, between injuries or performance or defense issues. Raw is optimistic that he'll be up in 2012, and that's optimistic but certainly reasonable: skip one level. But skipping three levels and being up in 2010, I suppose if you're expecting him to be Alex Rodriguez or Griffey Junior. Other than the error in Lee's age, I agree with these points. Ramirez is a pure hitter, and this year a more mature hitter in terms of discipline. While his health has been iffy, he's got a fair shot to be an asset for another five years, or perhaps more. Given my more conservative Vitters advancement timetable, I think if Vitters could play 3rd and he blossoms as a wonderful hitter (both unlikely and anything but to be expected), then he might be able to replace Aram in good time. Even if Aram is still raking 4-5 years from now, I doubt he's going to be a premium defensive 3B 4-5-6-7-8 years from now. I think one possible super-optimistic scenario would be to have Vitters make it at 3rd, and have Aram move to 1st when Lee is too old but Aram can still hit.

Does anybody know if Vitters got hurt yesterday again? He got pulled after two AB's. He's rough defensively now. But it's going to be many years before his bat is big-league ready, if ever. The other positions he might eventually be switched to are LF, RF, and 1B. Those aren't necessarily the hardest or slowest positions to learn. No rush to switch him. Obviously sticking at 3rd would be nice. If he moves super fast and becomes surprisingly good (certainly not to be expected based on any Cub prospect), you've still gotta figure he's 5 years out. By then Aram will be 35, Lee will be 38, Fukudome 36, and Soriano 37. So the needs will be wide open at potential Vitters spots if/when he would hypothetically be ready to hit. 3B would obviously be nicest. Even if Aram is still a bat, how likely is it that he'll be playing good 3B beyond age 35? But if Vitters can hit (big question) and if he's a butcher at 3B, obviously he'll need to move. But the primary question is whether he'll be able to hit. Lots of guys can hit the crummy Northwest league pitching. Lots of challenges ahead for him to prove he's one who can hit at higher levels.

Cubs signed 24th rounder David Cales, the SS/P who started at Mizzou, and then played at a couple of colleges in Illinois. As a pitcher. He's kind of interesting, and has been doing well in summer league. Not very tall. Bigger story is that they signed 21st rounder Logan Watkins, an infielder (all-state QB, I think). One draft list had him at 5'11", but article about him says he's 6'1". Cubs super-slotted him to the tune of $500,000, plus the $100,000 college guarantee. So BA will probably list this as a $600,000 value deal. Not sure what his game is, but apparently has a strong arm and good range defensively. BA didn't know much about him or rank him real high, but in a pre-draft article Watkins said that pro scouts had told him he could go in the top-5 rounds, although his college commitment would make him hard to buy away. I wonder if he's a true SS prospect? Or if he'll outgrow that? Is he really a 2B or a CF guy? Any power projection, or more a table-setter type? Who knows? Up until Sonny Gray, we've now signed all but three, Cashner 1st round, Shafer in the 2nd, and Alex Wilson in the 10th. Cashner it's just a matter of time. I'm surprised Shafer hasn't signed yet. I wonder what's up with that? Wilson obviously is not likely to sign unless he impresses during summer and gets a serious offer. Early results certainly don't support that, at present. But with Watkins in, and assuming Cashner and Shafer and all the guys they hoped to sign do sign, I'd assume they won't really have any leftover 1st round money to make Gray a crazy offer.

Pastor Tom, thanks much for the game report. Sounds really good. A 3-pitch control pitcher whose fastball has some sink/run and can work in the 90-91 range, that's a good package. Glad to hear that Donaldson looked good behind the plate. That way if he ever does start to hit, we'll be comfortable that his defense is fine. Two questions/comments: Latham and Parker both have some very impressive numbers. Latham, 21, is around 2.0 ERA, has a K-per-inning, has only 12 walks in 47 innings, and until the bad outing you saw had a WHIP under 1.0. So obviously the bad outing you saw was the exception, not the rule. I know you only saw him for a couple of ineffective batters faced. But just from looking, if he made any impression, did his fastball look major-league fast? Or did he look pretty average? Same question for Parker. You mentioned he looked impressive. His numbers are also fantastic, not as good walk-control as Latham, with 18 walks in the same 47 innings, but with a 1.3 ERA, 51 K's, a WHIP barely over 1. His results have been great, especially lately (only 4 walks in his last 21 innings). Did he look like he threw pretty hard and would have a good big-league fastball? Or more like a good average fastball and a good slider that probably makes him excel in A-ball?

I'd guess it's two names for the same pitch.

Pretty weird, Caridad even more than Ceda.

Carpenter

DSL 2 Cubs: http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?t=t_ibp&cid=2270 DSL 1 Cubs: http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?t=t_ibp&cid=609

JR Matthes has incredibly compiled 2.48 ERA at Iowa. They have gotten some remarkable pitching, from some non-regarded prospects. Gallagher was very good there, obviously as a status guy. But Burns, Matthes, and Wells have put up some really good ERA's, even while the status guys Hart and Marshall have gotten ripped. I wonder if Matthes isn't basically what the good Marshall was supposed to be? Marques Smith didn't play for Peoria today. My guess is that he's on the move to Daytona, and will play the full second half with Daytona.

McDaniel and Sontag. McDaniel is 14th rounder who just turned 20. Had bad stats, but apparently was pitching most of the year with injured ribs.

Heh, my mistake, I checked BB-cube, which doesn't include 2008. So Opitz hadn't hit over .300 previous years, with no power, and with a lot more K's than Harrison. Yeah, that's a pretty good 2008 for Opitz. (Was he a senior, just a really old junior, I don't remember?) Is the Big East that bad of a conference? I know it's not SEC good, but being conference player of the year there, it's not like it's a bad conference. Obviously Garrison may be a total fiasco, and may not hit at all. Most 6th rounders don't pan out. And obviously he's not going to hit many HR's. And I know it's obvious that the Cubs can make some pretty dumb picks sometimes. And I also know this isn't thinking for myself, it's just trusting the Cub scouts who have no track record of deserving trust; but I still think if they took him in the 6th and Opitz in the 12th, the Cubs at least think he's much better, and the odds are they are correct. I like him better because he's been a consistent contact hitter every year, and I think contact hitters/slap hitters can progress pretty well. Contact hitters who lack HR power but have no holes can be better able to handle improved pitching, whereas the boom-or-bust stronger guys have a harder time handling promotions. If you are a contact guy at one level who consistently takes a lot of walks and has very few K's, that impresses me as perhaps having the most fundamental hitting tool, the ability to see pitches well, and to respond to them accurately. That Harrison can respond accurately but still not hit the ball over the wall is a major limitation, but Opitz hasn't power either, and if I could get a good-average good-OBP disciplined 2B in the 6th round, that would be a good value even if he doesn't hit for power. We'll see how it goes.

Vance, what did Shark look like for fastball and breaking ball?

Not the right topic, I think. But I noticed a kid who debuted in the DSL box score, Ramon Garcia. He lists at 6'2", 170, 16 years old. Pitched 2.1 innings, no hits, one walk, and 5 K's. Might be one to keep an eye on?

I'd rather keep Harrison in the infield. He was drafted 6th round to Opitz's 12th, is a year younger, and was the Big East player of the year. He's got some very impressive BB/K ratios in college, and has been an outstanding OBP guy, with an OBP around .440 for his college career and an OPS around .960 or so. Opitz has been more a career .280 hitter (in college!) with an OBP more in the .370 range and OPS around .790. So I'd rather go with Harrison, and hope he has enough OBP/bat to be something in the Derosa/Theriot class of hitter as a 2B.

James O'Donnell has signed, since he's on the Boise roster. Flaherty is also on the roster, so that signing is further confirmed if there was still any question about it.

http://www.idahostatesman.com/sports/story/410788.html Initial roster. Vitters 3B, Flaherty SS, Harrison SS, Opitz and Marwin Gonzalez for utility, Rebel Riding and Keedy for 1B. (My interpretation of usage.) Some of those guys will need to do some OF, because the only listed OFers are Burke, Rundle, and CF Campana. C: Flores, Brenly, and Carlos Perez. A zillion pitchers from the draft, so hard to guess who will start and who will pitch relief. James O'Donnell in there, so he signed. My first guess at the starters might be: Hatley, Jay Johnson, Coleman, Pawelek, and Jose Pina. Not sure if Pawelek or Pina have enough control or in Pina's case rehab progress to start though. The list has 14 pitchers, so it will be kind of chaotic spring-training-like or like how they do the rookie league team at first.

I may be misremembering, but I thought Kemp was on a short visa and would need to get sent out soon.

Gray obviously doesn't plan to sign. But the guys who are available in the 27th round are mostly either college guys who will be roster-fillers, or HS/JC guys who you probable can't sign or else aren't very talented. So you take a pick, and wonder if he'll maybe change his mind? Sometimes teenagers do. He might be wise to do so. Somebody observed that his delivery is incredibly violent, and that there's a good chance that he'll need surgery before he becomes eligible to be drafted again. Might be wise to take some the money while he can. But, obviously that isn't his plan. On the HS thing: I think there has been a dramatic reduction in the number of HSers drafted since they dumped the draft-and-follow process. At present, will the team offer enough to make it better for the kid to sign than to go to college? Seems to me that unless the signing bonus is $150K (top 5 rounds area), the kid is better to get free college, have all the fun and personal development that comes with college, and then have chance to make a million (or more) as a college pick. Why should I sign for 7th round money? If I'm going to become a good major leaguer, then I'll have elevated to 1st-2nd round status by my junior year, so financially I'm as well off in college. If I'm not going to become a good major leaguer, then it would be better for me to get free college, be prepared for a life after baseball, be a star athlete on campus with lots of girlfriends and team camaraderie, rather than to experience night after night of frustration as a failing inadequate low-minors bust. My point is, for the average kid, either he needs to be a high-draft pick who gets a high-dollar bonus, or else he should go to college. In the DFE days, of course, the team could draft the kid without committing 1st/2nd round money to a kid who might but probably won't work out; then if he did blossom, pay him that via draft and follow.

It's too soon to tell. This is Guyer's first month in pro ball, after being injured for quite a while. So it's not clear that his 65 AB sample is very representative. In his brief 65 AB, he's got 3 HR's and 8 XBH, with an IsoP well over .200. Small sample fluke, maybe, but if he could power like that while hitting .280 instead of .245, you could have a good guy. With only 11K/65 AB, that's pretty good in the early going. His BABIP is only around .250. If his other numbers sustain but his BABIP is around .300 or better (most decent minor-league hitters BABIP well over .300), then you'd be looking at a .280+ hitter with power, and we might like it. We'll have to wait and see. As a 5th round draftee with injury issues, the odds that he's going to be an exciting prospect aren't very high. But if he hits, and with some power, who knows?

To be honest, I think the awesome "bad body" hitter versus the flashy athlete thing doesn't apply at all to the Cub recent drafts. Vitters was not at all a "flashy athlete", he was taken for bat, bat bat. Cerda and the Cinci kid this draft are not "flashy athletes", they are drafted as hit-first. Flaherty similiar, he's no flashy athlete, or an NFL wide receiver or any of that stuff. The same applies to last year in addition to Vitters. Donaldson, Thomas, the Oklahoma State guy who's at Daytona, Marques Smith, these guys were all taken for their hitting, at the expense of "flashy athlete" tools. Nobody says Thomas is a flashy athlete gold-glove base-stealing burner; all of these guys were hit-first, and hope they can be average or a little better defensively. Clevenger was the same kind of deal two years ago, nobody said he was fast or a flashy fielder, they just thought he could hit. If anything, I think the complain that they are going too light on "flashy athleticism" might be more justifiable at present. So I think the "trend" that I see is a focus on hitting skills (hitting for contact in particular) above all. That actually seems to apply to Colvin as well, they said they saw him as a pure hitter. Obviously not everybody drafted to hit actually does. So I can certainly share the logic that drafting for hitting is fine, but if your scouting stinks so that the guys you drafted to hit can't actually hit it's lose-lose-lose. I'm still hopeful that some of the guys that haven't hit that well will do so (Vitters, Thomas, and perhaps even Colvin and Donaldson).

Any observations on Rhee's stuff since the DL? Nate? Is he throwing softer, or looking like he's not letting it go as easily? 3 good innings today, 6/0 GO/AO. Blake Parker with another 3 shutout innings, no walks. Nice to see Thomas hot. Nice to see Veal with some K's, and a pretty good line.

DeRosa seems a good comp, in part because DeRosa is the current 2B and if Flaherty was to progress really well/fast (as might be possible), he might possibly be in the mix for 2B after DeRosa's contract runs out. They've been wanting a left-handed 2B. If he could hit and reach base like Todd Walker, while fielding a little better than DeRosa and being baseball smart unlike Walker, that would be a great value for a pick in the 40's. Obviously not a very exciting pick. His K's were way up this junior year, and his batting average well down. Awful lot of K's (over 40 K's in college this year!) to be a Wally Joyner-type average hitter.

"They [the Mets] could go for pitching help with Friedrich, Cashner or Perry, with the idea of converting the latter two from relievers to starters." Callis, BA. The notion of drafting a college reliever, than switching him to rotation, seems surprising. I wonder if other teams are looking at these guys this way?