craig

OK, here's just the list so you can edit easily. Craig’s Top Prospects After 2010/Before 2011 1. Chris Archer, RHP 2. Hak Ju Lee, SS 3. Brett Jackson, OF 4. Ken McNutt, RHP 5. Brandon Guyer, OF 6. Hayden Simpson 7. Josh Vitters, 3B 8. Junior Lake , UT 9. Jay Jackson, RHP 10. Reggie Golden, OF 11. Robinson Chirinos, C 12. Brooks Raley, LHP 13. Jae-Hoon Ha 14. Rafael Dolis, RHP 15. Kim Jin-Yeong, RHP 16. Ben Wells, RHP 17. Wellington Castillo 18. Chris Rusin, LHP 19. Robert Whitenack, RHP 20. D.J. LeMahieu, UT 21. Aaron Kurcz, RHP 22. Jeffry Antigua, LHP 23. Ryan Flaherty, UT 24. Robinson Lopez, RHP 25. Chris Carpenter, RHP 26. Daniel Sanchez, SS/OF 27. Belliveau 28. Cam Greathouse, LHP 29. Nick Struck, RHP 30. Su-Min Jung, RHP 31. Austin Kirk, LHP 32. Austin Reed, RHP 33. Alberto Cabrera, RHP 34. David Cales, RHP 35. Marquez Smith, 3B 36. Dong-Yub Kim, OF 37. Brett Wallach, RHP 38. Matt Cerda, UT 39. Dae-Eun Rhee, RHP 40. Esmailin Caridad, RHP 41. Matt Szczur, OF 42. Marco Hernandez, SS 43. Darwin Barney, SS 44. Luis Liria 45. Charles Thomas, RHP 46. Frank Batista, RHP 47. Aaron Shafer 48. Kyle Smit, RHP 49. TyRelle Harris, RHP 50. PC Chen, UT 51. Delbin Arcila, OF 52. Matt Spencer, OF 53. Logan Watkins, 2B 54. Jeff Lorick, LHP 55. Steve Clevenger, C 56. Colin Richardson, RHP 57. Gioskar Amaya, UT 58. Wilson Contreras, 3B 59. Yohan Gonzalez

Heh, here you go. (Unfortunately I've got comments interspersed with the names. Maybe I'll separate those out, too...) Craig With Comments 1. Chris Archer, RHP Extreme anti-HR guy, really good stuff. Safe pick because he’ll get a lot of opportunity in relief even if he fails as starter. Problem obviously is control, so not at all safe that he’ll become a major impact success. But has improved, and guys with that kind of anti-HR profile have a much easier time. 2. Hak Ju Lee, SS Good fielding SS will advance. Limited by absolute lack of power and a lot of errors. Despite scouted speed didn’t steal a ton; unclear whether they just didn’t want him running more or getting hurt stealing, or whether he just doesn’t have the success margin to become high-volume base-stealer; might make a difference whether or not he’s a desirable leadoff threat or not. Since it’s his defense that makes him, I think he’ll stay at SS. Can either get traded, work as a utility sub, or else will need to hit enough that Cubs will move Castro off of SS. 3. Brett Jackson, OF. Seems pretty safe and scouts like him. Smart. Huge K issue, makes me wonder. If he’s missing the ball that often against A/AA pitchers, he’s probably going to miss a lot against big-league pitchers. Has seemed to have high BABIP; lucky? How good he’ll be depends heavily on how the HR/K ratio shakes out. If he hits a bunch of HR, that can justify a lot of K’s. High HR’s and high walks, he can afford a bunch of K’s. And the K’s may reduce some too, to at least some degree. But without a fair number of HR’s, if the K’s don’t go down he might have a lot of batting-average problems. Seems good if not exceptional defensively in CF. 4. Ken McNutt, RHP Good arm. How much better can he get? Questions are control; movement; and HR. 5HR/116 innings, good. 5HR/56 A+/AA innings, could indicate a problem. Very promising. 5. Hayden Simpson I trust Wilken had good reason, and that he’ll be healthy. Profiled with a good arm, a good blend of pitches, and a good attitude. Q: Is he/will he be truly healthy; how much sustainable arm will he have under the pro workload; and how good will be his stuff/control? Will his stuff and his control be good enough to be serious value or just a guy? I considered him behind Guyer, but not behind any of the Lake/Vitters/JJackson guys. 6. Brandon Guyer, OF Hit really well. Q/concerns: How much HR power will he show? Can he boost his IsoD? Can he sustain his high average/contact/XBH rate? Is his defense really good enough that he might play some big-league CF? 7. Josh Vitters, 3B There are times that he seems like a hitter with some power potential. And I respect the scouts who see a good contact hitter. Will probably need to hit a lot of HR’s to offset his liabilities. Concerns: Can he hit with enough power/HR to justify his IsoD, his defense, and concerns about attitude/effort/brains? I think there may be quite a bit more HR potential than we’ve seen thus far. One advantage is that scouts like his swing; that doesn’t prove future success, but I think they often can future possibilities that stats don’t always reflect. 8. Junior Lake , UT Hit very well 2nd half, has a good arm, and has flashed some power at times. Q’s: Attitude/coachability. How much power will he have; can he keep his K’s to a manageable level and have enough HR’s to offset; where will he shake out defensively? (I doubt he ends up at SS). 9. Jay Jackson, RHP Can he improve enough to be good in the majors? Can he make an anti-awful move in HR’s and get them to a livable level? Rotation or relief? My biggest concerns with him are the incredible HR-allowed rate he showed this year. (I’d noted it as a concern even before this year.) I strongly believe his long-term niche will need to be in relief. 10. Reggie Golden, OF Who knows. Might hit and hit with power, an invaluable combination. Since the onset of the mlb draft almost 50 years ago, have the Cubs ever drafted a HS player who became a good-hitting OFer for the Cubs? Must be somebody, but I can’t remember who…. Maybe Golden will change that? 11. Robinson Chirinos, C Great story, he didn’t just start to hit this summer. His offensive numbers have been improving for each of the last several years. His slugging/BB/HR/K ratios were Wow good; when you K so little, but still hit with power and take walks, that’s a perfect recipe to have some offensive potential. And some say he’s fine defensively. Catching is a grind and a high-injury position, so even if he’s “just” a backup C behind Soto, he could get a lot of playing time. 12. Brooks Raley, LHP Too many HR’s last year. But when he allowed only 1 HR over last 10 starts, he was very effective. He’ll open AA at age 22. If he can improve in some ways and limit the HR’s, he could be good. Not sure how good his stuff is, but I’m very hopeful about his control. Might end up better than his stuff. 13. Jae-Hoon Ha Sky’s the limit. Hit .317 with power at age 19, outstanding talented OFer, good contact low-K hitter. Q: How much HR power will he have? Will he hit breaking stuff, or does his low-K-low-BB reflect that he’s just a fastball guy? Can he improve his IsoD to become anti-awful and at least approach mediocre? Obviously his signature drag is his utterly bad IsoD. 14. Rafael Dolis, RHP Anti-HR guy, good arm. At 22 he’s still young enough where he might improve meaningfully; if he did, he could become a useful major leaguer. Reliever eventually? 15. Kim Jin-Yeong, RHP Big bonus, the scouts must see some talent. Phil said he looked pretty good at times in Az. 16. Ben Wells, RHP Massive guy, paid well. Chance to throw hard and with control. 17. Wellington Castillo Power, seems OK defensively, still young. Will his defense play? Can he improve his IsoD and his batting average without losing his HR power? If his defense actually is good, an .815 OPS is not a bad starting point for a guy who opened AAA at age 22. Could look pretty valuable if he can improve his offense and confirm himself as a capable defender. 18. Chris Rusin, LHP We’ll see how it sustains, but only 19 walks in 110IP. Lefties with so consistently good a breaking ball aren’t that common. Q: Biggest key is whether he’ll be able to keep his HR’s in check. How slow is he, actually? Is he and can he stay healthy? Rotation or relief? 19. Robert Whitenack, RHP Projectible, was really effective over the last 3-4 months, K-rate improved and HR-rate dropped a lot. How much better and/or faster can he get? Too soon to know where his velocity, breaking stuff, control, and HR-containment will end up, but he’s got a chance to be a useful major leaguer. 20. D.J. LeMahieu, UT Good contact hitter, and can catch what he can reach defensively. Q: Which positions can he play at the big-league level, and will he ever add any power or IsoD? Sometimes Cub prospects seem to add their HR power late; if he showed even a modest amount, he’d jump up my list considerably. Whether or not he can really handle big-league 2b defensively as a regular, in the uncertain event that he’s productive enough offensively to be a regular 2B, is a question. 21. Aaron Kurcz, RHP Had a nice run, interesting fastball/slider combo. 22. Jeffry Antigua, LHP Shoulder questions. If healthy, how good is his stuff, really; and can he restrain the HR’s? I think all Q’s/Answers hinge around arm health. If I knew he will stay healthy, I’d have him higher. 23. Ryan Flaherty, UT How much better can he get? Can he boost his HR output? How good is he defensively and what positions can he play? 24. Robinson Lopez, RHP Young, good velocity. Control? 25. Chris Carpenter, RHP Anti-HR stuff, and on occasion quite fast. Wildly inconsistent, with bad control. Q’s: health, control, any real improvement left? Can he throw hard more consistently, and with more consistent control? Does he have the composure to handle pressure in relief? I suspect many will rate him higher than me. I fear his stuff may be somewhat overrated; I fear he has a reputation as having a big fastball, and on occasion that may be true. But I get the feeling that most of the time, his fastball isn’t really that fast and that his fastball movement/command may not be good enough to normally make his fastball very much better than average. 26. Daniel Sanchez, SS/OF May be the highest-bonus Dominican position player the Cubs have ever signed. Scouts must see enough of something to think he might have a chance. 27. Belliveau 97K/64IP, seems to have enough stuff to be a good Loogy prospect. Big control Q, and HR. 28. Cam Greathouse, LHP Had nice K/BB at Boise, strong groundball splits. Not sure how his stuff projects. If he adds some velocity, and if he can sustain HR-suppression against higher level hitters, he could really jump on my list. 29. Nick Struck, RHP Consistently throws in low 90’s, young, and improved during season. Command? Movement? Breaking stuff? Who knows. 30. Su-Min Jung, RHP Health? Was really effective for a few weeks, but had some shoulder questions. Will still be only 20 when the season begins. Any hopes hinge on showing up with a healthy shoulder. But if I was certain his shoulder was fine, I might have him higher. 31. Austin Kirk, LHP Decent progress. 32. Austin Reed, RHP Good arm, projectable, good reports. 33. Alberto Cabrera, RHP Good arm, good sometimes, sometimes fast. Wildly inconsistent. 34. David Cales, RHP Has been good for periods, but consistency? Q’s. Healthy? 35. Marquez Smith, 3B Slugged well over .500, has been variably good offensively. Can he field enough to be a big-league bench guy, or play anything but 3rd? Is his 2010 HR power a fluke, or for real? 36. Dong-Yub Kim, OF Seemed interesting when he signed. Health? 37. Brett Wallach, RHP Good K-guy. Q’s: will he improve? Control? HR’s a huge problem. 38. Matt Cerda, UT Strong OBP/contact guy. Will he hit enough and with enough power? And how good or bad is his defense? If he’s really a quality big-league 2B/3B defender, he may be a good enough OBP guy to be useful. But if his defensive upside is to be average at best, it will be hard to outhit a bad glove with such limited power. 39. Dae-Eun Rhee, RHP Health? Will his stuff improve in year two? Will he get his splitter back, or at least some of his lost velocity? I’m not overly confident, but I am hopeful. He had a number of games where he was pretty good for 3-5 innings, but then gave up a lot of runs late. I’m hopeful that being a year stronger, that all of his stuff will be somewhat better and that what stuff he does have will be more sustainable. But for 2010, his low-K high-HR line certainly fit with the profile of fringiness. 40. Esmailin Caridad, RHP Can he come back from arm? 41. Matt Szczur, OF Will he stick with baseball? If so, will he hit, walk, steal, or add power? 42. Marco Hernandez, SS 17, good DSL numbers. Does he have future punch? 43. Darwin Barney, SS Will he hit enough to be nice utility guy? 44. Luis Liria Solid arm, some changeup. 45. Charles Thomas, RHP Throws hard sometimes. 46. Frank Batista, RHP Wildy inconsistent and huge HR problem. But had some good days.. 47. Aaron Shafer Good numbers at Daytona. No clue on current or projected stuff. 48. Kyle Smit, RHP Decent arm, 49. TyRelle Harris, RHP 50. PC Chen, UT 51. Delbin Arcila, OF Patience and power prospect. 52. Matt Spencer, OF Got some power. 53. Logan Watkins, 2B 54. Jeff Lorick, LHP Phil thought he had some Loogy potential. 55. Steve Clevenger, C True contact hitter. Not sure about his defense. 56. Colin Richardson, RHP 23/2 K/BB. 57. Gioskar Amaya, UT 58. Wilson Contreras, 3B Good contact, strong arm, some rumor of $$. Will he hit for power? 59. Yohan Gonzalez Back-to-back ERA below 3, control pitcher, low-HR, now 20. Will he improve or come up with a K-pitch?

Good points. Cruz is interesting, being lefty, and having improved dramatically from last year. Went from 24BB/21K/22IP to 59/32/52, and a 6'2" lefty might have some projection. Paulino lists as a 6'1" righty. Augusto Colinas might be another name to consider. 37K/10BB/42IP as a 17-year-old lefty. This was his first summer. He got assigned straight to the stronger DSL1 team, and was given/earned 42 innings, quite a bit for a 1st-year guy. Peralta and Paulino, by contrast, both started on the lower DSL2 team despite being older and having experience. Luis Villalba is another 17-year-old lefty who went straight to DSL1 and got 52 innings, although his K/BB weren't as impressive as for Colinas. Both Colinas and Villalba are lefties, and both are from Venez. Colinas lists as 6'0", Villalba at 6'2", so perhaps in the long run Villalba might be the more projectible, who knows. Another guy of some possible interest, although doubtful, is Ramon Garcia, who pitched the season at 18. He had a 0.97 ERA in 46 IP, with 0 HR and only 7 walks. Probably not a guy, because this was his 3rd year in DSL so he should have been more than eligible to come over for instrux, and with only 30K/46 innings he seems doubtful. But I recall being very interested in him in 2008 when he had 45K/13BB/51IP at age 16, and seemed like a guy they signed very young and were pushing. doesn't appear to have advanced much since, though.

Thanks for note on Wells, Cal. Makes sense. If Peralta is one of the top two DSL guys, do we know what the other guy is? And can you or anybody summarize any scouting comments from Phil on the DSL kids? I recall the following, but I'm not sure if I missed some: SS Marco Hernandez. Slap hitter at present, Phil didn't seem especially impressed. 3B Contreras: slow. Delbin Arcila: modest arm/speed suggest LF/1B Zapata: Shorter and stockier than your normal CFer, but has good speed. Peralta: tall and lanky, one of two better pitchers from DSL1. Any other tidbits?

Cal or others, do you know what was mentioned for wells? Just general caution stuff with any HS pitcher? Or something else? He signed two months ago, so you'd think he's have as much time to have his arm loosened up as the next guy in instrux.

Thanks for posting all this stuff. And Nate, thanks a ton for your reports. You see them all season long, so your observations mean a lot. By the way, what do you think of Whitesides as a prospect? He seemed so blah at first, but then was really effective over his last couple of months at Peora, and then again at Daytona. What changed? And is he for real? As cal shared, I hope the notion that Antigua and Jung shoulders are or will be fine proves true. Those are too meaningful prospects, I think. Still, I'm not sure how often guys who have sore shoulders don't have something wrong inside, and it gets them later if not sooner.... As cal noted, at catcher Cerda's offense would have looked pretty intriguing. I hope he can progress as a hitter. I appreciate your observations and am pleasantly surprised that you like Cerda so well as a defensive 2B. I'd wondered whether he was short on quickness and range at 2B, and might have a max ceiling as still sub-par defensively compared to big-league 2B's. Does he have much untapped room to grow and get stronger? My impression is that he's already something of a workout warrior and may not have a lot more room to get stronger. Wrong? That he's not going to hit 20 HR's, that's a given. But there is a big difference between 3 and 13. A good OBP contact-hitting 2B who can get to 8-13 HR's is quite different then somebody more in the Theriot ballpark.

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/teams/vvh I checked on how Szczur is doing football wise. Villanova got beat by Temple, a D1 school, and has trounced a couple of the FCS teams. (Towson and Lehigh). Through 3 games, Szczur has wracked up 8 catches for 42 yards, has run 25 times for 137 yards, is 4-5 passing, and has done kick returning. Having a jack-of-all-trades guy like that is nice for an FCS school. But unless the NFL loves him as a return specialist, I doubt a guy who is 4th on his FCS team in pass receptions is going to get drafted real high, in the 5th round or higher. If he's the #4 receiver and the #3 RB on an FCS level team, I doubt NFL teams are going to be spending 4th round picks on him expecting that he'll be able to be a #4 receiver in the NFL. So I'm reading his Villanova results as being modest enough that he may well end up sticking with the Cubs. Whether or not he really has enough offensive potential to makes it as a LFer who doesn't steal, that is unlikely but time will tell.

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=g_box&gid=2010_09_18_tenaax_jaxaax_1 Season over. Sommer gives up 9th inning HR to end the year, 1-0. 25-year-old Muschko has pitched well down the stretch.

Interesting, if true. If you can find a link to that, I'd be really interesting in seeing that.

My guess is that he'll do XST and Boise next year, unless he's really impressive in camp. Remember, he's only 17. Pretty uncommon to start an 18-year-old in Peoria, although of course there are exceptions and perhaps he'll be one. (Perhaps the fact they included a clause like that might be a reflection that they scout him as being pretty polished.) Actually, I'm also guessing that the special 2013 roster thing is *after* 2013, such that it really wouldn't take effect until the 2014 season. I may be wrong. But if he has three pre-option years plus the three option years besides, I wouldn't expect that length of club control would not necessitate any unusual rushing. I don't imagine they're trying to disrupt what would be normal development.

Harman: $150 plus tuition for his senior year at Clemson. http://www.burlingtonfreepress.com/article/20100817/SPORTS/100817020/Harman-signs-with-the-Chicago-Cubs I wonder if he might not be something of a Chris Rusin light. More HR-oriented than Rusin and probably doesn't have as good a breaking ball, but that general type of polished good-control lefty. Perhaps Lilly might be another comp, soft-tossing HR-fodder, but enough finesse control to make it work? That's assuming his finesse and control could be at the Lilly level, which is pretty extraordinary. Of all the soft-tossing finesse want-to-have-control want-to-end-up-like-Lilly lefties that get drafted, not many end up like Lilly. Just like a decade ago every slim 80's-velocity lefty might become Glavine and every slim 80's-velocity righty might become Maddux.

http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/ Not sure I trust their calculations much, but minorleague slits calculates Guyer to have over a 100-point OPS "luck" factor and over 40 BA points of luck. Probably at least some reality to it that he's been lucky. Still, I'm interested. He doesn't seem to have the obvious weaknesses that some prospects do. He doesn't appear to be especially great at anything. But by report he outfields well; he throws pretty well; he runs pretty well; his base-stealing suggests that he runs fairly smartly/instinctively; he hustles and plays hard; his K-rate (15%?) is quite modest for a guy slugging .575; his HR/K ratio is nice (11HR/46K, that's not a batting-average killer); and while his walk-rate is low, it's not prohibitively horrendous. Instinct is to always push anybody who doesn't look like a 40-HR guy into center, but I don't think that's happening for Guyer (or Colvin) other than on a utility-backup basis. But there just aren't really all that many LFers or RFers in the majors these days who are .850+ OPS guys. If Guyer was to make it as an .800-.850 OPS guy who played good corner OF and ran well, that could be more of an asset than just boring. Likely, no. Possible, possibly. The other thing I wonder about is his HR power. I've gotten the impression that he doesn't scout as a HR guy. But, that was always true with Colvin as well, his minor-league numbers were always built on his power; nobody talked about him as a power guy; but now he's living off his power in the majors just as he did in the minors. They say Guyer is built like a linebacker. When a guy built like a linebacker has 11 HR in 300 AB, and is slugging .575, I'm not sure I understand why he's scouted as an anti-power guy? Well, OK, obviously his 3 HR last year are a good reason! But if he's built strong, can hit the ball, and has 11 HR's in 300 AB this year, I'm not sure why it would seem unfeasible for him to be a 15-25 HR guy if he was starting every day in Wrigley? Again, not likely, because things rarely work out that well for players. But hardly impossible. Last thought: I wonder how meaningful the minor league line-drive data is, as pertains to the "luck" factor. There are a lot of hard-hit balls that classify as "grounders" that hit the ground once before they're in the outfield. And there seem to be quite a few balls that classify as "liners" that don't seem very fast or hard-hit to me. I'm sometimes a bit cautious in over-interpreting some of the minor league stats.

Not correct. It reduces club control by three years, not one. 1. HS picks get five years before they need to be rostered, college picks four. That was a change in 06; previously it had been 4 and 3, but now it's 5 and 4. 2. It's not when you sign, it's when you play. Having signed on Aug 16, Wells is not going to play in any official minor league games this 2010. So his options clock will begin in 2011. So without the contract clause, it would have been 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, then roster winter of 15, and have his first option year in 2016, when he would be 23. 3. I'm not sure I'm remembering right, or what the details are on Wells's alleged contract. From the Bryant Daily: "But it also includes an unusual provision that guarantees that in 2013, Wells will be included on the Cubs' 40-man roster. That means he'll go to spring training with the Major League club that spring with a chance to make the 25-man roster." Not sure what "in 2013" means. It certainly reads like he'll be rostered during all of the 2013 season, and spend spring training of 2013 with the Cubs. That would mean only two non-rostered years. But, perhaps it means he'll be rostered *after* 2013, he'll be on the roster in 2013 in front of the Rule 5 draft, and will actually spend the 2014 spring training roster with the cubs. That would be trimming only two rather than three years off of his pre-option clock. Which would certainly be no big deal. Most of my lifetime HS picks had 4 years before Rule 5. I've hardly noticed the difference since it's been expanded to 5. I doubt it would be a big deal for Wells to drop it to 3. But to drop it to two, when probably next year will be all short-season action anyway, that would be pretty fast.

I think it's fair to judge that Ricketts is not radically or noticably redirecting the way the Cubs pursue success. No indication that there is a major commitment to build via draft spending. Nor via international investment. Nor via a larger big-league budget. Nor via a dramatic change in leadership from Hendry/Fleita (Hendry has been GM for 7 or 8 years, but he and Fleita have overseen the draft/development system for almost 15 years.) Nor with pushing/driving a significant usage of high-level statistical analysis. Ricketts seems like a nice upbeat optimistic fan who spent a zillion just to get the team, and perhaps doesn't have a bunch left over to steinbrennerize it either in FA or in draft. He also seems pretty delagatory. Hendry and Fleita have their jobs, Ricketts seems thus far to be fine with empowering and entrusting them to do their jobs, for better or for worse. My impression is that Ricketts is OK with working more from an upper-mid-market standpoint than to spend as if it's a true megamarket. Washington can go full-bore for draft; Ricketts seems kind of spread-it-around. Personally I think the big-league budget was awfully high, and I'm thinking that Ricketts is partially rebounding and pulling back from the massive contract commitments. If you packed the house and went to the playoffs, you make enough to justify the $140+ payroll. But when you're in 23rd place, and next winter you aren't likely to have season-ticket holders killing each other to buy tickets to see this team next year, I'm guessing he probably needs to have the big-league payroll come back to the pack. A budget that makes sense when you're realistically a playoff probable and a realistic WS possible is different from a budget that makes sense given our current personnel. And given how many of our current personnel are contract locked, it's not budget-feasible to buy yourself into a playoff probable. It's been suggested that the Lilly savings should have been spend on draft picks. I like the idea. But it might reasonably be thought that rather than freeing up discretionary money for spending, that Ricketts basically viewed that as simply reducing substantial losses. Cub the losses from $20 mill to $18 mill, or keep it at $20 mill and superslot DeJesus, Stites, and Santiago? I have no idea, but that's my guess.

thanks much. "...a number of teams that spent a lot less than usual (Brewers at $2m; Twins, Padres, Cubs, White Sox, Braves, Marlins, Mets, and Phillies all around or below $4m)." That's sourced from BA, or Muskat, or mlb, or a poster's tabulation, or what? I'm wondering in part whether my guesstimate is significantly wrong, and if so why or who? (I'm probably a chunk of a million over by counting Szcur as $500K instead of $150 or whatever...) But maybe Reed and Harman are straight $110 guys, too, beats me.

Couple Q's/thoughts: 1. What does the average team spend on a draft? 2. I'm thinking the cubs will come in somewhere in the $4-5 million range, probably above $4.5. Middle of the pack, more or less I'm guessing? (I just popped the picks into excel, put in $70K for college signings after the first 10 rounds, and put in something on the order of $110-150 for the normal HS/JC picks after the first ten. Gave $300 for Reed (I have no idea...), $200 for Harman, and somewhere between $110-200 for about 11 other guys. Summed up to $4.961. Also put in $500 for Szcur, since they offered it at least even if he declines to take it. 3. That's a lot of guessing. Maybe they paid Reed $0.5, maybe $0.15, I don't know. Maybe they paid Harmon $110, maybe $310, pure guesswork. Geiger, Reed, Smith, Beeler, we don't know. But I'd be surprised if we finished much below $4.5, or much above $5. Which I'm guessing would be fairly middle-of-the-pack spending? Or would $4.5-5 be a little below or a little above average? 4. I haven't tracked all the links. Is the list provided by the Cubs or mlb? Or is there an outside chance that later we'll find out that Danny Winkler or Jacob Rogers actually did sign but we didn't hear about it, ala Nick Struck last summer?

It will be interesting. Unfortunately it often takes a while to find out, so even with the deadline, it's not like we'll know everything definitively tomorrow, the way it works with deadline trades or whatever. We'll probably still be left hanging. And with it being late August, we won't find out by virtue of having these guys show up in minor league games anymore. So if DeJesus or Wells signs, we'll probably hear about it, particularly Wells and particularly if he overslots some. But if they sign somebody analogous to Struck last year, it may not be easy to find.

How high he rates will depend on what BA hears about his arm. If they get some buzz reports, whether from Cubs or from other scouts who mention him, that he has a really electric arm and projects well as a player-converting-to-pitch prospect, he could rank pretty high. (McNutt ranked in the mid-teens last year, for example.) But if nobody is talking present-or-projected-95+, and it's totally about his rookie-league stats, maybe not that high. I've never gotten any feedback on what his signing bonus was, either. I've assumed he's standard slot $150. But if BA has that he got $325, and that he projects well, and that he has an exceptional arm, and that the Cubs are really buzzed, he could get into the teens. I just know too little. The two positives are that he's doing well and Arizona Phil referred to his stuff as "electric". That could mean a lot, because Phil rarely says that kind of thing, he usually just reports results and whether the guy throws strikes. But it might not mean that much either. If not, Reed could be one of a ton of guys who put up some good numbers in rookie without getting immediate recognition. I hope he is a big stud prospect, and is this year's version of McNutt. Or better.

While Cal is asking, I'll pile on. Struck has had a number of effective outings. Batista has been K'ing tons of guys. Jung, after few K's early, has really turned it around lately. And Whitenack has an ERA under 3 over his last 10 starts. And of course Antigua struggled often, and missed time. Could you comment on each of their stuff and velocity? Perhaps I'll guess: Whitenack typically 88-91, pretty good control of fastball, has some sink. Breaking ball erratic and not very advanced, but has been better over the last two months than was true the spring. At the Peoria level, though, he has really lived on his fastball primarily. Composure and personality, I have no idea. Long-term potential could be good if: his velocity increases as he fills out (he's pretty skinny around the middle although his shoulder aren't thin), and his breaking stuff gets better. Struck: Fastball is pretty decent, 88-92 typically. His control is inconsistent. Throws a slider and a change. Is he as short as the 5'11" listing suggests? And is he stocky or just a slim little guy? Composure and personality, I have no idea. Long-term potential could be good if: his command is consistently good, and if he can fairly consistently be at or above 90 mph with his fastball. Batista: Is he as short as his 5'10" listing suggests? And if so is he fairly slim, or is he pretty stocky and strong at this point? Throws harder than Struck and Whitenack, I'm thinking? Probably gets into the 92-94 range fairly often? The best velocity among the rotation guys? His second pitch is a slider that he can use for K's. Changeup is very unrefined, he can't control it very well and doesn't throw it very often. Can he communicate OK in English, or is that pretty rough at this point? Any personality input at this point? Long-term potential could be good if: his velocity can hold up long-term, his slider command improves, and if his changeup comes along as a 3rd pitch versus lefties especially. given how short he is and given his fastball/slider combo, may profile better as a reliever than a starter at the big-league level? Jung: Throws around 88-91, with both slider and change? Fastball velocity has been a little better/more consistent lately, and command of all of his pitches, slider especially, has improved during his recent good outings. What kind of English and get-along-with-the-team profile does he have at this point? How big is he? Does he look like he could fill out more and perhaps get somewhat stronger? Long-term potential: He'll need to be a pitcher, but if his control improves some more and his velocity ticks up a little bit further, he could become pretty good. Antigua: Throws 86-93 fastball, has a change and a breaking ball. Inconsistent control. What happened with his being out of action? Elbow, shoulder, oblique, discipline, what happened? Before the injury he maybe wasn't throwing that well, but has looked better since. Personality and communication skills? Minorleague baseball still lists him at 6'1 170, but I think he's a lot bigger than that now? Maybe 6'2" and 215? When he wasn't feeling right he wasn't throwing very fast, and had some fat fastballs and some hanging breaking pitches which got bopped over the fence. Long-term potential: Arm needs to be healthy, and it's a question of control. Needs to be able to throw hard enough and command the fastball so that he's not giving up HR's all the time. And needs to throw change and curve for strikes so that he can mix everything up. If you were rating right now: Fastball velocity: Batista > Antigua > Struck > Jung = Whitenack Close, or how would you revise? Fastball effectiveness at present (considering movement and location as well as velocity): Whitenack = Batista > Jung = Struck > Antigua? Close, or how would you revise? Overall big-league potential at present? I have no idea how to rank these five! If you were Jim Hendry, which would you probably be most willing to trade, and which the least?

Yes, I wouldn't think ARcher should be that hard to make our top 5. We always talk about the K's and the walks, and those are huge. But the guy is establishing himself as anti-HR guy. When you don't allow HR's, it's not so bad to walk guys. Given what fraction of big-league runs score via HR's (about 40% of RBI's come via HR, correct?), guys who don't allow HR's tend to be good.

road, nice to hear cousin's report of Antigua at 95 and dominating. You're sure it was Antigua the starter who pitched 3 innings, not Jung the reliever who pitched 4, yes? Would be great if Antigua came on after the layoff. Cal, you already noted it, but it's really neat to see Jung kicking in. Last year he seemed pretty mediocre, and pre-all-star he didn't seem that jazzy this year either. But suddenly he's racking up K's like crazy, and he's getting a lot more interesting. Some good news on the Dominican league front, too. Marco Hernandez is looking pretty interesting, at 6'0" he's not a little guy, and a LH-hitting SS sounds interesting too. All-star at 17 with some interesting stats. A lot of pitchers with nice numbers there, too. I wonder how many if any really will make it very far in the states? A poster reported that Archer was at 93-94.

When August comes in, often Fleita will promote players in order to either expose them to higher level, and/or to move them onto a winning team (which also affords the chance for extra playoff games.) With that in mind, what is the playoff situations for the varying Cub farm teams? I pay so much attention to the players that I often have little idea how the team is doing W-L wise. And with split seasons, I don't even know which of Peoria, Daytona, and Tennessee already locked up playoff games during the first half. I'm guessing that: 1. Peoria did not get 1st half playoff lock, and isn't likely to make playoffs 2nd half either. Correct? 2. Daytona didn't make 1st half playoffs, but is running away with things second half and is likely to make it? 3. Tennesee got 1st half playoff locked up, and is leading again in second half? 4. Iowa is in good shape for playoffs. 5. Boise is not likely to reach playoffs. Who might be impacted. 1. Daytona *Rusin. If wasn't in a race, or falls out, I'd expect Rusin to move up to replace Papelbon. But since Daytona is in a race, and Tennessee is already secure, no motive for that yet. 2. Peoria: Nobody really there with any big need to promote, or who would help Daytona much. 5 games out, they've still got a chance. But if Peoria isn't in a race... *Lee might go to Daytona late in the season, just for some exposure. However, with Lake, Lemahieu, and Flaherty already locked into their infield, and with Lee not being a fast-track guy anyway, not a lot of need to advance Lee. He'll need plenty of time to reduce his errors and hopefully to physically mature into at least a little token power. *No Peoria pitchers with any huge rush to promote. *Perhaps Whitenack, if they did want to promote Rusin. Whitenack has very blah overall stats, finally dropped under 5.0, and his splits are very boring. But over his last ten starts and 50+ innings, his WHIP is barely 1.0 and his ERA is sub-3. A friend watched him in the Wrigley game, said his offspeed stuff looked fairly mediocre/unrefined/raw, and said he wasn't real fast. But he thought Whitenack looked like his frame and shoulders suggested he might be able to carry significantly more weight/muscle, and perhaps to throw significantly harder in future. A well-controlled sinker at 89-91, that's a good A-ball pitch. But if he matured into a 93-95 mph hard sinker with good control, that could be a really good big-league pitch. If an opening in Daytona's rotation opened, he could be the guy they'd like to expose and get a chance to be a part of the playoff action. 3. Boise doesn't have much to promote. *Kirk could, if he adds a couple more good starts. But assuming Peoria didn't win it's first half and doesn't get into the playoffs 2nd half, I wouldn't imagine Kirk is going to get jumped up to Daytona's contender. *LePage could certainly get promoted, but again no playoff motive and 2B is already somewhat cluttered with Cerda/Watkins, so it's not like he'd move right up and start at 2B everyday. *Kurcz obviously deserved a promotion, and he's been so good that perhaps he could get shot up right to Daytona to see how he faired and to be a part of the playoff run in the event that he can compete. Thoughts? And am I right that neither Peoria nor Daytona earned 1st-half playoff spot? Or Boise?

thanks, Cal. If you don't mind, I'll copy this to the international thread.

Some time back, somebody listed three DSL players who were selected as all-stars. But I don't see that in the International thread, and think it's buried somewhere in one of the box score threads. Can somebody re-list those three, and perhaps also copy it into the International thread? Thanks in advance. Perhaps I just never knew. But the Cubs haven't had many all-stars there. One I know was Castro. So I'm hoping that he's a sign that whoever is selecting them aren't really just picking 3-year fillers, but are recognizing players that look promising and have a chance to be meaningful prospects. The Cubs DSL teams seem to have more interesting prospects this year, although a lot of the prospects seem rather short, and thus of questionable likelihood to progress into huge velocity or middle-of-the-order power.

Thanks, I've wondered and have never seen any scouting comment before. Of the 19 Batista's in the minors, none lists shorter than Franky.