. . . they both need a miracle. Was reading in another thread some foolhardy Cubs fans still think we have a shot at the playoffs, so I says to myself, self, what's it gonna take? Let's assume for the sake of this exercise we're not going to overtake the Cards--probably a safe assumption. Thus the teams we need to beat are the 'Stros, the Nats, the Phils, and the Marlins. While this is by no means a comprehensive list of possibilities--the Mets also have a better record than the Cubs, and the D-Backs and BrewCrew aren't far behind--I'll assume these 4 will be the teams to beat come season's end. So, there are 53 games left on the schedule, plus a rainout makeup in Atlanta, and the Cubs are 5.5 games behind in the WC standings. Assuming Houston plays at the same .551 clip they've played at up to this point, they'll finish with 89 wins. For the Cubs to win 90 games--the absolute minimum to beat the 'Stros--they'll have to go 36-18, a robust .667 winning percentage. Hmmm.... let's have a look at that schedule. Our remaining series are: 3 @ NY 3 vs. Cin 4 vs. StL 3 @ Houston 3 @ Colorado 3 vs. Atlanta 3 vs. Florida 3 vs. Dodgers 3 @ Pittsburgh 3 @ StL 4 @ SF 3 vs. Cin 3 vs. StL 3 @ Milwaukee 3 vs. Houston 2 vs. Pittsburgh 4 @ Houston plus 1 @ Atlanta somewhere in there 27 home, 27 away. Let's get optimistic and say we take the Cards 6 games to 4. That gives us 60 wins, with 44 left. Have to go 30-14 (.682). Our only other home games against contenders are the Atlanta, Florida and Houston series. Of those 9 games, lets say we take each series 2-1, for a total of 6-3. Now we're 66-61, and need to go 24-11 (.686) the rest of the way. Tell you what--let's sweep our remaining home series, spanking Cincinnati, LA and Pittsburgh. 11-0! Woo hoo! We rock! Hmmm... not enough. We're 77-61 (.558), but we only need to go 13-11 on the road to get to 90 wins. Certainly possible, since we're almost .500 on the road to date. Problem is, 7 of those 23 games are in Houston, so if they continue winning at a .551 clip they get 4 of 'em. Now we need to go 9-8 against: Milwaukee, San Fran, Pittsburgh, Colorado, the Mutts and Atlanta. Good news is, we're 4-1 in Pittsburgh, so we get 2 of the 3. Atlanta gets the rainout. Unfortunately, we're 1-5 in Beer City, and they seem to have our number late in the season. But this is my fantasy, so let's say we win 2 of the 3. We're now 85-67 (.559). We need to go 5-5, and SF, NYM and Colo are a combined .500 at home. Looks good, right? Problem is, knowing the Cubs, they'll be playing tight, and will be mightily susceptible to spoilers, especially the 4-game swing in PacBell Sept. 8-11 (which follows a 3-game series in Saint Looie). Bottom line: It's possible, but I predict by mid-September we're be singing that old, sad song again: Wait 'til next year.