The Voice of Reason

What is a "true" leadoff hitter. Paint a picture for me. Give me some numbers to work with. If he's saying not a true leadoff hitter in the Cubs eyes, I think I understand. The Cubs have their central casting version of the true leadoff hitter, and when they are focused on one thing, they usually get it. Unfortunately, there's no such thing as a true leadoff man, and narrowing down your search for greater production to fit the mold of your scouts' preconceived notions of what each position should look like is only doing a disservice to your team. If he is saying that Wilkerson isn't a good option for leadoff, then I completely disagree with him. The latest from Rosenthal The Cubs continue to push hard for Marlins center fielder Juan Pierre, but the Nationals' Brad Wilkerson could emerge as another option. Nationals GM Jim Bowden has long been interested in Cubs center fielder Corey Patterson, and the Cubs have a number of young pitchers who might appeal to the Nationals. http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/5141070

Yup. Don't ever doubt that franchise, btw. They always know whats going on. Cubs could learn so much from Schuerholtz and Jocketty. Wouldn't either one of them be a wise choice to throw a lot of $ at and "promote" from GM to President and replace MacPhail?

Actually, I heard it was the Bad News Bears. They are looking for a replacement for the kid that picks his nose.

Atlanta can make a pretty attractive package for Lugo. I just dont understand why Atlanta is looking outside their organization for a SS. They have Betemit who hit .300 last year, and they have Tony Pena Jr. And better yet, they have a manager who will actually play them. Exactly, so whats the point in trading some of their young talent to get a good but not great SS in Lugo. I think Betemit could be better than what Lugo is and hes younger and cheaper. If Im the Braves I move on and try finding a closer. They're looking for a one year fix until Betemit's ready. Lugo is a free agent in 2007.

I assume you mean frontrunners for Lugo depending upon who lost out on Furcal.

Evidently the Cubs weren't the only ones blind-sided by Fucal's agent and yes it was all about the money. Somehow I think the Braves will overcome the loss of their SS, leadoff hitter, and closer (Farnsworth) better than the Cubs would. http://www.ajc.com/braves/content/sports/braves/1205/05braves.html ^Registration required but with Furcal on the Dodgers not really necessary anymore. Short snippets follows. Braves general manager John Schuerholz still was a bit peeved Sunday over what he called the lack of negotiations with Rafael Furcal's agent. "We were waiting to hear from Furcal's agent about what they wanted to stay a Brave and still have not heard that." " . . . we never had a chance to negotiate." "It simply became a bidding process -- whoever put in the most attractive bid got the player. They assured us more things were going to be considered than just money. But so far, about 100 percent of the people who've talked to me about the signing believe it was just about the money. "You like to feel like you'd have a chance to engage in negotiations, especially with a player who's been in your organization nine years." Re: Lugo - The Braves have had some discussions with Tampa Bay about shortstop Julio Lugo. He comes with baggage -- arrested and charged with assaulting his wife in 2003. He had his best season in 2005 (.295, 57 RBIs, 39 steals, .362 on-base percentage) and is under contract only for 2006 at $4.95 million. A one-year commitment is attractive to the Braves, who have shortstop prospects rising in their organization. Kansas City's Angel Berroa (36 homers, 171 RBIs in the past three seasons) also has drawn interest from Atlanta.

i think it's an ironic thought, personally. as for so long nobody knew that there was more to the game than "conventional wisdom". i think there are many who mourn the passing of certain mythologies, and i can understand the anger. i wasn't happy when i discovered that there was no santa claus, for instance. in the world of scientific understanding, and baseball is as much a science as it is a sport, you must have clear, measurable variables and results. there may be more to the game than statistics, but looking at subjective variables is what muddles the water and causes expensive teams to go 79-83. I think injuries, Sosa's ridiculous contract, bad execution and Dusty had a little to do with going 79 - 83 as well as "subjective variables." The minute a statistician steps into the position of the executive who must make decisions and defend them, the statistician ceases to be a statistician. - W.E.Deming There are lies, damned lies, and statistics! - B.Disraeli It has long recognized by public men of all kinds ... that statistics come under the head of lying, and that no lie is so false or inconclusive as that which is based on statistics. - H.Belloc Like dreams, statistics are a form of wish fulfillment. - J.Baudrillard Where is the knowledge that is lost in information? Where is the wisdom that is lost in knowledge? - T.S.Eliot There's no Santa Claus? :o :lol:

Considering that his SB% is over 363 attempts, I doubt it can be attributed to non-Pierre factors. It would be nice to have a guy who steals bases, but I'd prefer that he do them at a rate that helps the team. And how do we know that Pierre has this fantastic work ethic?[/quote] "In all of the decades I’ve been in the game, I’ve only had two workaholics — Tony Gwynn and Juan Pierre,” Jack McKeon to the AJC 12/1/05 McKeon's known as a straight shooter, been managing forever and has a World Series ring. I'd say he's a pretty competent source. There's a lot more to the game than just stats.

Sorry, it was a blog not really an article. Yes, Pierre slumped to .276 last season, but that still was just eight points lower than Furcal’s batting average during what was considered a superlative year for the Braves’ catalyst. And Pierre’s lifetime mark is .305 as the leadoff guy. He steals bases, and he rarely is caught (267 out of 363 attempts). He makes contact more often than not (never more than 52 strikeouts in a season). Since Pierre’s first full year in the majors with the Colorado Rockies in 2001, he hasn’t played less than 152 games in a season. He has spent each of his three seasons with the Marlins playing every game, including every inning during the 2004 season. “In all of the decades I’ve been in the game, I’ve only had two workaholics — Tony Gwynn and Juan Pierre,” said McKeon, still employed by the Marlins. It.'s hard to call Furcal's 2005 "superlative" considering his very poor (.254/.310) first half, in which he was fighting an injury. In the second half, Furcal put up a .322/.394/.474 line. Saying Pierre is rarely caught is just flat out wrong, and Furcal's success rate is considerably higher. And AVG isn't the issue, OBP is. Whoever wrote that was really fluffing Pierre. rarely caught. interesting. 73.5% is not a good percentage and actually has a negative effect on his team's ability to score runs. it makes pierre a poor baserunner, despite his speed. we don't need another poor baserunning, non-walking, slap-hitting leadoff hitter. and the idea of jacque jones makes me want to puke. Disagree. Percentage caught can be misleading i.,e., maybe he was just following McKeon's ill-timed orders, pitchouts, unlucky with high % of fastballs, etc. Bottom line -It would be nice for once to have a Cub with speed who could steal a lot of bases considering the last time a Cub led the league in stolen bases was when Stan Hack did it 1939 with all of 17. Also, just maybe his work ethic would rub off on one Aramis Ramirez.

If the Cards expect that Monday "deadline" to be a promise, they're really, really dumb. Setting a deadline the day Winter Meetings begin is a pretty obvious negotiation move. Apparently the Cards threw in a Tractor and a House with a Cement Pond to seal the deal.

Sorry, it was a blog not really an article. Yes, Pierre slumped to .276 last season, but that still was just eight points lower than Furcal’s batting average during what was considered a superlative year for the Braves’ catalyst. And Pierre’s lifetime mark is .305 as the leadoff guy. He steals bases, and he rarely is caught (267 out of 363 attempts). He makes contact more often than not (never more than 52 strikeouts in a season). Since Pierre’s first full year in the majors with the Colorado Rockies in 2001, he hasn’t played less than 152 games in a season. He has spent each of his three seasons with the Marlins playing every game, including every inning during the 2004 season. “In all of the decades I’ve been in the game, I’ve only had two workaholics — Tony Gwynn and Juan Pierre,” said McKeon, still employed by the Marlins.

Terence Moore of the AJC and Jack McKeon. Evidently Pierre's "weak arm" doesn't bother two people who've seen him play a lot of ball. I say get him - especially if the Furcal deal falls thru. Pursuing Pierre would behoove Braves| By Terence Moore Wednesday November 30, 2005 The Atlanta Journal-Constitution Juan Pierre. He’s exceptional. He’s available. He’s exactly what the Braves need to push their consecutive streak of division titles to 15. Not only that, he’s capable of doing enough with his bat, glove, legs and heart to end their annoying habit of vanishing each October. (Edited by moderator for copyrighted content--posting of entire article is prohibited)

Farny with a bulging wallet living in the City That Never Sleeps. Anybody know if Scores is a public traded company? I am seeing an excellent investment opportunity here.

FURCAL. 1) He's better. 2) Why give up prospects for a player five years older that you would probably have to give Fucal-like money in a year to keep? Doesn't make sense.

FURCAL. 1) He's better. 2) Why give up prospects for a player five years older that you would probably have to give Fucal-like money in a year to keep? Doesn't make sense.

I bet Williams next move is to go hard after Pierre.

Hmm. $6m/yr locked up in 2 relievers? Whatever, I was resigned to this a couple days ago. If Hendry signs/trades for an impact OF, all will be forgiven, in my eyes, anyway. Lot of $ but heading into spring training you gotta like Eyre, Howry and Dempster a lot better that Remlinger, Hawkins and Borowski.

Who is your favored candidate for SS? AGonz? Neifi? Cedeno with all of 80 major league at bats? an injury prone and past his prime Nomar? Lugo Lugo Lugo Lugo Lugo... Is he available? What would it cost the Cubs? Tampa Bay supposedly talked to the Braves and Mets about Lugo a few weeks back. Lugo will make $4.95M in 2006, and then will become a free agent. I have no idea what it might cost to get him. But as long as Angel Guzman and Felix Pie are not involved, I would trade any 2 prospects to get him. Since Furcal's and Lugo's numbers are very similar, it's reasonable to assume that next year Lugo will be using what Furcal signs for (this year) as a benchmark for his new conctract. So to keep Lugo wouldn't you be using the same amount of $'s that you could have used to sign Furcal to get a player 5 years older (Lugo) and that cost you two prospects? If that's the case Hoops, I'd rather have Furcal. Good point. But then, why not try to negotiate an extension now before the deal is consummated? You might get a discount. If the Cubs could get Lugo at a decent discount and without paying too high of a price in prospects, I'd do it in a heartbeat. Especially since I'm not that confident that the Cubs can get Furcal. Put Cedeno at 2B and trade Walker and put his salary and the money you save (with Lugo) towards obtaining a good Right Fielder.

Who is your favored candidate for SS? AGonz? Neifi? Cedeno with all of 80 major league at bats? an injury prone and past his prime Nomar? Lugo Lugo Lugo Lugo Lugo... Is he available? What would it cost the Cubs? Tampa Bay supposedly talked to the Braves and Mets about Lugo a few weeks back. Lugo will make $4.95M in 2006, and then will become a free agent. I have no idea what it might cost to get him. But as long as Angel Guzman and Felix Pie are not involved, I would trade any 2 prospects to get him. Since Furcal's and Lugo's numbers are very similar, it's reasonable to assume that next year Lugo will be using what Furcal signs for (this year) as a benchmark for his new conctract. So to keep Lugo wouldn't you be using the same amount of $'s that you could have used to sign Furcal to get a player 5 years older (Lugo) and that cost you two prospects? If that's the case Hoops, I'd rather have Furcal.

Who is your favored candidate for SS? AGonz? Neifi? Cedeno with all of 80 major league at bats? an injury prone and past his prime Nomar? Lugo Lugo Lugo Lugo Lugo... Is he available? What would it cost the Cubs?

Who is your favored candidate for SS? AGonz? Neifi? Cedeno with all of 80 major league at bats? an injury prone and past his prime Nomar?

Assuming Furcal stays with the Braves, with Giles, Furcal and Chipper at 2B, SS and 3B, I would think Betemit might be available. In 246 ABs last year, he hit .305/.359/.435/.794 and apparently is tearing it up in winter ball. A Cedeno/Betemit 2B/SS combo would allow you to trade Walker and commit (the Furcal) money to the outfield and/or pitching. Betemit is 25 and made $316K in 2005 (or about 12% of what the Cubs are paying Neifi). A Walker/Betemit 2B/SS combo would allow you to trade Cedeno or give him another year in the minors to develop Thoughts? http://www.ajc.com/braves/content/sports/braves/1105/19notes.html

With the added flexibility the Braves have because of Chipper's contract restructuring, and assuming the Braves win "ties," do you outbid a 5 year $10 million dollar Braves offer for Furcal? Assuming the S.S Nomar has sailed, what do you do about shortstop?

Triple B, Vance, Hoops (and anyone else) - The price of poker is going up because of the weak free agent class and because all the teams have money to spend (even KC and Pittsburgh). Assume Giles won't come to the Cubs under any circumstances (I know you don't agree with this premise but just humor me). Also assume it would cost you $60 milllion to get Burnett (5 x $12 million) and the Reds won't trade within the division. Finally, assume a 20% premium over market value for the remaining free agents, that other teams will only make trades (fair for both sides) with the Cubs and that you don't want an "overpriced" Furcal. How would you make the Cubs pennant contenders? If Giles won't come to the Cubs under any circumstances, then Furcal it is. I think that's the part that people don't see when I say forget Furcal. Once I've heard that Giles absolutely will not come to the Cubs, then we move on. The money is there to overpay for Furcal. After Giles, the next options for RF become fairly cheap, whether it be Mench, Bradley, Wilkerson, etc... The Abreu, Ichiro, Sheffield, Ramirez ideas just fall too far out of the scope of reason, whether it's if the teams would honestly trade these players, whether it's if the Cubs actually have value to send back or if the Cubs are willing to take on the entire salary of the players listed. If Giles is not an option, I'd contact LA and work a deal for Bradley. He's cheap, versatile in the outfield, has decent power and speed. I would then throw how ever many players necessary to get Aubrey Huff from Tampa. Not "good" players. Just players. They won't get Rich Hill or Felix Pie. But, I'd send Novoa, Mitre, and a few others if need be. I'd then get Huff locked up. Bradley won't get a deal because of his "past". With Pie coming, we wouldn't want to block CF anyway. Furcal Bradley Lee Huff Ramirez Murton Walker Barrett If Walker is being traded no matter what (though I really don't understand why they would do that), then stick Cedeno in at 2nd and call it a day. That's a good line up, either way. Who knows, it might even be better to go this route than sign Giles. It's a younger team with good balance throughout. Nice job. However, what if Furcal's agent wants the Cubs final offer in a week and the Giles situation (with several more teams interested) is not finalized. What do you do? Make Furcal an offer or take a chance and don't make an offer and save the $ with the hope that you can use it to beat out all the other competitors for Giles?