bukie
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Everything posted by bukie
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Here is what I think is a legal bracket (top 4 teams in each conference in separate brackets and no rematches in first round, no 3rd rematch in second round, no 4th rematch in third round).
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Since it's selection sunday, here's an S-curve made up of all the teams we've placed thus far, plus the teams I filled in on my rankings plus Oregon State and Georgetown: I'll do one more onceover to see if anything seems way out of place, then run a bracket.
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UCSB won the Big West.
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Oregon State holds on to win the Pac 12 tournament, and steals another at large bid.
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Grand Canyon wins the WAC.
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Texas Southern beats Prairie View to win the SWAC, probably earning a spot in the first four.
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Abilene Christian beats Nicholls by 34 to win the Southland.
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North Texas beats Western Kentucky to win the CUSA. Putting them at 53 for the time being, they have no substance of an at large profile. Western Kentucky probably gets bumped down a few notches as well, putting them out of the running for an at-large spot.
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Georgia Tech wins the ACC auto bid.
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So this basically means one Big 10 team is going to get stuck in Gonzaga’s region as the 2 seed, right, even if they’re ranked 2-5 in the committee’s rankings? That is correct, if Illinois, Michigan, Iowa and Ohio State are all top 2 seeds, they will be forced into separate regions, so someone will be the 2 in Gonzaga's region (and probably Baylor's region as well). So if Illinois is 3, Michigan 4, Iowa 5 and Ohio State 6, Iowa would be the Baylor 2 seed and Ohio State would be the Gonzaga 2 seed.
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Here's my ranking of the remaining field (auto bids are starred):
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Ohio wins the MAC.
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San Diego State wins the MWC, Utah State relies on at-large capability.
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Explain to me Syracuse's appeal, actually. They won 3 games outside the carrier dome, and their best win was by 2 points over North Carolina (to this point their only Quad 1 win). Combine that with a Quad 3 home loss to Pitt, they don't pass the Penn State test to me (if your profile is not better than Penn State, you should not be an NCAA at large team).
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Texas beat Okoahoma State to win the Big 12, but it's hard to read too much into the result since Texas was well rested having gotten a bye to the finals.
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Georgetown finishes off Creighton 73-48 and gets the Big East auto bid at 13-12.
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Houston and Memphis tied at 62 in the American semis with 5 minutes to play. If Memphis wins, then it's either Memphis or Cincinnati getting the auto bid. As for Houston, they have good metrics but couldn't win the 7th rated conference and might not win the tournament either. Hard to place them high in the bracket with that profile.
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Continuing in the second half, it's now a 36-5 run, and it looks like Georgetown is stealing a bid. Maybe Syracuse's.
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Georgetown with a 20-0 run to end the first half, lead by 18 at the break.
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So the last step becomes: Rank the remaining 39 teams on the at-large board plus auto board, including potential bid stealers Cincinnati, Georgetown and Oregon State. Unless, you know, they lose before then, then whatever. Here are the teams: Cincinnati AAC Georgetown BE Oregon State P12 *Loyola-Chicago MVC *Winthrop BSth Boise State MWC BYU WCC Clemson ACC Colorado State MWC Drake MVC Florida SEC Georgia Tech ACC Indiana B1G Louisville ACC LSU SEC Maryland B1G Michigan State B1G Missouri SEC North Carolina ACC Oklahoma B12 Rutgers B1G San Diego State MWC Seton Hall BE SMU AAC St. Bonaventure A10 St. John's BE St. Louis A10 Stanford P12 Syracuse ACC Tennessee SEC Texas Tech B12 UCLA P12 Utah State MWC VCU A10 Virginia Tech ACC Western Kentucky CUSA Wichita State AAC Wisconsin B1G Xavier BE
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Norfolk State, Iona and Hartford officially won their auto bids. Southern Utah lost in the semis, so now Eastern Washington is in the curve, I bumped them down 3 spots due to a worse profile (from a 14 to a 15 seed). I'm just going to slide Ohio (MAC) in above Prairie View A&M (both 14 seeds at this point), unless I get a huge objection. So the 13-16 seeds are as follows now: 51 UC Santa Barbara BW 52 Colgate Pat 53 Liberty Asun 54 Morehead State OVC 55 Cleveland State Hor 56 UNC Greensboro SC 57 Ohio MAC 58 Prairie View A&M SWAC 59 Grand Canyon WAC 60 E. Washington Bsky 61 Oral Roberts Sum 62 Iona MAAC 63 Nicholls State SLnd 64 Drexel CAA 65 Hartford AE 66 Appalachian State SB 67 Norfolk State MEAC 68 Mount St. Mary's NEC
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I also forgot about the MAC, so Buffalo/Ohio need to be fit into the S-Curve somewhere.
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Convince me at this point Illinois isn't at least the #3 overall, or even #2.
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Bottom of the S-Curve: 68. *Mount St. Mary's NEC 67. *Norfolk State MEAC 66. *Appalachian State SB 65. Hartford AE 64. *Drexel CAA 63. Nicholls State SLnd 62. Iona MAAC 61. *Oral Roberts Sum 60. Grand Canyon WAC 59. Prairie View A&M SWAC 58. *UNC Greensboro SC 57. Southern Utah Bsky 56. *Cleveland State Hor 55. *Morehead State OVC 54. *Liberty A-SUN 53. Colgate PAT 52. UC Santa Barbara BW Middle of the S-Curve (After 12): 13 Oklahoma State B12 14 Texas B12 15 USC P12 16 Creighton BE 17 Virginia ACC 18 Oregon P12 19 Villanova BE 20 Florida State ACC 21 Connecticut BE 22 Colorado P12 We're now...halfway through the 6 seeds and backed our way through most of the 13s. Next up...rank the rest of the field (including the additional auto bids that are not accounted for in Winthrop, Western KY, the A-10 winner and San Diego State)
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Cincinnati nips Wichita State 60-59 and could steal a bid with a win tomorrow vs Houston/Memphis.
