bukie
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Everything posted by bukie
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Hey, they definitely won an extremely weak division in 2021 (and were thus throttled by the Astros in the playoffs). -
In this economy?
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Correct. Preseason projections had the Cubs as a borderline .500 team, which is why their playoff odds based on those projections is a bit more bearish (but still a real chance). Based on their current performance, the Cubs are the best team in the division, so the chances they make up 3 games on the Reds and Brewers right now is better than 50/50.
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The Cubs play 6 more games this season against teams with a better run differential than them (just the Braves). They've already played the Rays, Rangers and Dodgers and went 7-5 against them.
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Those are based on projections sourced by current 2023 performance, rather than preseason projections. Based on those, the Cubs are currently favorites for the division.
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An unfortunate side effect of digging themselves a 10 game hole early in the year is now they need to just plain pile on wins to catch the league, even if they have been one of the best teams in the league for 2 months now. Today isn't a must win, but there aren't many chances to directly affect the Reds trajectory, so taking advantage of one here is a bigger deal than, say, losing 2 of 3 to the Braves this weekend.
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To be fair, the best team in baseball always plays at Wrigley.
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It's a shame he didn't get to continue his membership in the Bitter Ex-Cub announcers club with Steve Stone and Chip Caray.
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This is just the 16th time in MLB history where a team scored 16 or more runs in back to back games. And most of the prior times were pre-WWII era baseball.
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Cubs pitching staff is 13th in MLB in fWAR.
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Cubs offense has now scored in 10 of their last 14 innings.
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Here's a solid article on what's going on with the USWNT at the World Cup: https://sports.yahoo.com/the-uswnts-problems-explained-161944708.html TLDR: - The system Vlatko is trying to implement is such a poor fit for the roster, nobody knows what it's supposed to be. - The poor form has shown for a while now, but Mallory Swanson was stealing some wins to make the results look better than the performance. Then Swanson tore her patellar tendon and the attack is invisible. - The lack of domestic women's development in both youth and pro league has allowed the rest of the world to catch up faster, and none of this current roster plays in what are now better European leagues. So players like Sophia Smith and Trinity Rodman were probably overhyped as attackers coming into the tournament.
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NL Central: Reds, Pirates and others
bukie replied to Hairyducked Idiot's topic in General Baseball Talk
Maybe the Cubs are the best team in this division. -
The USWNT almost didn't get out of their own group, having to change tactics to bunker late vs Portugal to hold onto 2nd place. Likely Sweden in the knockout round next, and Sweden is considerably better than the Netherlands or Portugal.
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According to Fangraphis playoff odds, based on preseason projections, the Cubs have about a 30% chance of making the playoffs as of this morning. Based on in-season stats, they've become a slightly better than coin flip option of making the playoffs (54%). To me, that officially puts their chances as realistic as of today.
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This is oddly the only trip to STL the Cubs will make this season, and also the last time the Cubs will play the Cardinals this year.
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Even that 23-15 stretch includes a stretch in the middle where they lost 7 of 8.
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Maybe there's no need to buy or sell every trade deadline, and the Cubs should look to make moves that make the team better long term rather than look to go either all in or tear it all down. If the market for Stroman is insane, sure, go ahead and pull the trigger on a long term benefit. On the flip side, if you can pick up a solid SP or 3B or 1B without sacrificing any long term team value, maybe you do that.
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It turns out the White Sox are actually a bad team.
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Effectively, every win gains a game on half the league so a net half game gain on the league, and every loss loses a game on half the league so a net loss of half a game on the league. To be in the wild card conversation, they'll need to gain 4-5 games on the league as things stand, so the Cubs will have to play 8-10 games over .500 for a stretch to be in the playoff hunt. Alternatively, for the division, they just have to outplay 4 teams overall, so in a weak division, the potential is there to contend without being quite as good. In that sense, they need to gain on the Reds and Brewers now, so with them playing each other, the Cubs only gain by winning their own game.
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Benetti is the best broadcaster the Sox have had since TV came out.
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In fairness, that makes him the White Sox second best position player. Only Luis Robert has a higher fWAR.
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Fun fact: If Cleveland wins today, there will be just 4 teams under .500 in the AL. Now, you may think that's because the AL is dominating the NL this year, but that isn't the case. The AL is 225-241 in interleague play this year. So, in fact, the NL is dominating the AL this year. So why are there so many AL teams over .500? Because 3 of the 4 AL teams below .500 are so far below .500 they're propping up the rest of the league. The Royals, A's and White Sox are a combined 112 games under .500. The AL plays those teams a lot more than the NL, so everyone in the AL looks good.
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Had the Sox broadcast on last night (we don't get Marquee and I'm in no hurry to order it a la carte), and Steve Stone was billing this matchup as "two of the league's premier pitchers"....which, in itself, is effectively a slider low and away. In fairness, during the 8th inning he was also discussing how the Cubs were out of the race and almost certainly sellers, while the Sox were one good week away from turning this thing around and getting right back into the race.
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Cubs are quietly within 4.5 games of the Wild Card in the NL, as the Reds, Phillies, Marlins, Giants and Diamondbacks all have effectively the same record now. Cubs won't catch the Braves or Dodgers, but nobody else in the NL seems all that much better than the Cubs this season. Still, they'd need to get a few games clear of .500 before really being considered a playoff contender.
