Reds are in an interesting spot in the playoff race right now, 2 game behind a free-falling Mets team that they win the tiebreaker with, and effectively tied with 2 other teams (Dbacks, Giants) that they also hold tiebreakers against.
The biggest reason they've only got a 7% chance at the playoffs from this position is that 7 of their final 10 games are against the Cubs and Brewers (plus, gaining 2 games in the standings in 10 games is still tricky). Treading water for them in this series is probably not good enough, as there are too many teams close to them to hope that .500 ball will keep them in the race. Even if the Mets continue to falter, the DBacks and Giants are right there and it only takes one of them getting hot to take control of that last wild card spot.
On the flip side, the Cubs could effectively end the Reds season this weekend.