Much more likely? I agree Lawton would likely have a higher OBP than Furcal, and Walker won't approach .392, however, neither Walker nor Lawton are likely to significantly out-OBP the other. The past 4 years: Lawton -.342, .343, .366, .363 Walker - .353, .333, .352, .351 Lawton is about 1.5 years older. He's slightly outperformed on 3 of the past 4 years, but he's no guarantee. Both of these guys are good, but not great OBP players, and either of them would be a competent, but not spectacular top of the order guy. I'm assuming an OF of Murton, Giles, Lawton means Giles is in center. That's a pretty bad defensive OF, and offensively still full of questions (Giles is old and has declined in recent years, Lawton is a 4th OF, Murton could be a nice cost effective weapon, but he's nobody you can count on for a full season of corner OF production). I'd say 3 years in a row of performing at a higher OBP level, is pretty close to a guarantee. Walker's OBP is largely driven by BA this year. His BB/9 of 04 seems to be an anomoly when you look at his last 5 seasons. And I seriously disagree with the fact that you think the NL's 2nd best leadoff hitter thru July is a 4th OF.