EastonBlues22

He would have to start 30 games next year to make that happen...

And the Cubs already had 8 candidates for the back of the rotation with similar ZIPS projections: http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/cubs_signed_marquis/ Do we have any figures that ZiPS is an accurate predictor? THIS might be of interest to you.

It would be the apocalypse.

The article shows the effect of location on every pitch in the MLB last year. Essentially, every pitcher in the MLB was rolled into one great composite picture and that's what came out. After the merging, the composite picture is that of a perfectly average MLB pitcher in all respects. The "movement" and "stuff" and "command" and "control" of the "average" MLB pitcher is held constant across all the locations...thus leaving what's left as a picture of what influence location alone has on the batted nature of batted balls for the average MLB pitcher. That is, it does have an important and significant effect. IF you want to assume that what applies strongly to the average MLB pitcher (and even to some lesser extent the extreme FB case study) has absolutely no influence whatsoever on FB pitcher Ted Lilly...then that's your opinion. It's is possible that a FB pitcher with below average control and slightly above average "stuff" might buck the trend completely so that pitch location has no impact on his batted ball type. But that assumption is a far bigger logical leap than the one I'm making: That Lilly is close enough to a league-average MLB pitcher that the information in the article does apply to him. Averages are important...the vast majority of MLB pitchers are closer to average in any given area than they are to an extreme. If you take the "average" MLB pitcher profile, the vast majority of pitchers will have more in common with that profile than they have significant differences. The league average GB:FB ratio is 1.20. Zito is much closer to average (0.84 GB:FB last year) than Webb (4.07 GB:FB last year)...and Zito's GB:FB chart reflects that as his is much closer to normal than Webb's...that is, location for him is still important. The down corners (out and in) are the most likely locations to produce GBs for the average MLB pitcher...and Zito has more GBs than FBs in these areas. The average MLB pitcher gets more GBs than FBs as a whole over corners of the plate...so does Zito, as 8 of the 10 zones over the corners reflect more GBs than FBs. These don't seem like coincidences. Likewise Lilly, even though he's also an extreme FB pitcher...he's still much closer to average than someone like Webb, and his graph would likely reflect that fact as well. You're right...using two pitchers doesn't make any claims on the rest of the pitchers in the MLB. However, the "average pitcher" composite chart sure does. All their inclusion shows is that extreme movement can mitigate the effects of location...however, the vast majority of MLB pitchers don't have tendencies as extreme as someone like Webb. They are much closer to average. And location still is important for Zito, as I mentioned above. If he wants a GB, he pretty much has to hit the corner of the plate...this isn't a trend that runs counter to the average MLB pitcher experience. The word was "slam." That's the second time in this conversation that you've said an outright lie simply because you don't know what a word is. It's not like I'm nitpicking punctuation or spelling. Once you said that you didn't slam Mazzone and Duncan, when you clearly did. And just now you made an incorrect reference to something that I said. Those are the only two times I've corrected you. If you chafe at being corrected (not everyone does), then simply don't make don't make the mistake.

Name calling, very mature. Next time, if you don't know what a word means, simply have the courtesy to look it up yourself and spare others the trouble. Back to baseball: Mazzone is perceived by the baseball community at large to be a "great pitching coach." Then you acknowledge him to be a "great pitching coach," thus relating what I can only assume to be your take on his actual value. If you think his actual value is less than his perceived value of a great pitching coach...then you should try using a phrase like "he's just an above average pitching coach" or "he's a great pitching coach minus three." You can see how what you said might cause some confusion. Wrong. There are facts that dispute that the Marquis aquisition is a good one...both statistical and financial. They don't prove it's a bad aquisition, but they more than demonstate that there is room for debate. Your "argument" that Mazzone is overrated is based on no facts other than "his pitchers were already good." You have absolutely no conception of how much or little Mazzone contributed to the careers of his various pitchers. You have nothing better than a "guess" to back up your argument. Certainly nothing substantial that could be used to contradict the informed impresions of many baseball minds. In fact, I'm not aware of even one highly respected baseball mind that thinks otherwise. Are you? That's not what it said at all. I'll walk you through it. Corners and low produce groundballs across the MLB, middle of the plate and high does not. Here's the quote: "I don’t think there are too many surprises here. The lower the pitch, the greater the chance that it will be hit on the ground." That directly contradicts what you said. Next, it tackles two extreme ends of the spectrum...one an extreme GB pitcher, and one an extreme FB pitcher. Note how Zito's corner pitches still dominantly produce GBs...do his pitches just not move the same there? It concludes with this analysis: "It would seem, at least in the case of these two pitchers, that their ability (or lack there of) to induce groundballs is not entirely a function of where they throws the ball, but probably reliant on several other factors." That says that, even at the most polarized ends of the spectrum...location IS still a factor...it's just that there are other factors as well. This makes sense, giving the extreme nature of the movements of the ball of the two players in question. It does NOT say that location is NOT a factor at all. Most MLB pitchers are even more dependent on location because their movement is not as extreme as that of someone like Webb. Lilly is one of these pitchers. Wrong, the opening graphic demonstrated what effect pitch location has on the batted nature of the ball across the entire MLB. You said he had to keep the ball down with the wind blowing out. Yes, that helps prevent HRs...because it induces GBs. I talked about GBs because it's the logical extension of your own argument. Not every pitcher has the control that you're talking about. Most MLB pitchers can command most of their stuff (throw it for strikes)...but it's a much rarer skill to be able to control all of your stuff (locate it specifically within the strike zone)...or even most of it. Generally, people with high BB rates and high HR rates have control problems. Lilly has a career BB rate of 3.67 BB/9, and a career HR rate of 1.38 HR/9...both those point to a decided lack of control. As a comparison, Maddux (a noted control pitcher) has career rates of 1.84 BB/9 and 0.62 HR/9. Last year at the age of ancient he posted 1.59 BB/9 and 0.86 HR/9. So no, I don't believe that Lilly has the control he needs to do what you say on a regular basis.

You really think that any capable MLB pitching coach is going to overlook "several mechanical flaws" in a guy he's worked with for three years and who's currently struggling badly? You believe that Marquis went down to Florida in the offseason, worked with some guru, and *poof* all his "mechanical flaws" are now fixed and he's in top form for next year? Mazzone and Duncan are two of the most respected pitching coaches in the league. Slamming both of them doesn't support your take on what happened with Marquis...it just undermines the credibility of your argument because people are going to assume that you're viewing things in a less than objective manner. Turning a FB pitcher into a GB pitcher isn't really as easy as "changing your approach" for that day... People tend to be up in the zone either because of lack of control, or because of the mechanics of their throwing motion. Neither is really subject to a "quick fix" for the day. With that said, I also think that Lilly will be a fine #3 for you guys. I guess we'll see how Marquis pitches next season. That will solve our mechanics argument. Time will tell. We'll see...his K/9 has been terrible for two years now, as has his FIP. His GB:FB (supposedly his specialty) has suffered greatly as well. It's hard to believe he fixed all of that in a one-month span over the offseason. Really? You said: "So much for Duncan being a pitching genius." and "Mazzone is overrated." If someone said either to your face about your job performance, you would probably feel pretty insulted. Slamming is "to criticize harshly, or attack verbally." You impugned both their reputations directly. You slammed them. Why is this true? Because you say it's so? How can you call him a great pitching coach...and then turn around and say he's overrated? Either he's a great pitching coach and his reputation's deserved, or he's not, and it's not. Frankly, people with a lot more inside knowledge than either you or I think he's one of the top pitching coaches in the league. I don't see how either one of us could offer a convincing argument to the contrary that outweighs the collective opinion held by people who work in professional baseball for a living. You said: "When the wind is out, keep the ball down." and "You just have to change your approach." Presumably you meant change your approach from pitching up in the zone to pitching down in the zone. Both statements imply that you can change such things at will...which isn't the case. Actually, the biggest differences between the likelihood of a GB and a FB is pitch location. HERE is a link that shows that pitches that are low and on the corners of the plate are much more likely to be hit as GBs than pitches up and over the heart of the plate. People are usually in one of those two areas either because of bad location, or because of mechanics...neither of which is easily correctable. Even Zito, extreme FB pitcher that he is, gets more GBs than FBs on the corners of the plate. While "movement" can alter the trends somewhat, it takes a pitcher like Webb with his extreme movement to essentially make location a non-factor. Ted Lilly doesn't have downward movement like Brandon Webb. Location for him is important. If he had the ability to do it anytime he wanted to, he would. And again, I said I think Lilly will be fine with the Cubs this year...I believe he will have a good year. I just disagree with him being able to "keep the ball down" at will.

You really think that any capable MLB pitching coach is going to overlook "several mechanical flaws" in a guy he's worked with for three years and who's currently struggling badly? You believe that Marquis went down to Florida in the offseason, worked with some guru, and *poof* all his "mechanical flaws" are now fixed and he's in top form for next year? Mazzone and Duncan are two of the most respected pitching coaches in the league. Slamming both of them doesn't support your take on what happened with Marquis...it just undermines the credibility of your argument because people are going to assume that you're viewing things in a less than objective manner. Turning a FB pitcher into a GB pitcher isn't really as easy as "changing your approach" for that day... People tend to be up in the zone either because of lack of control, or because of the mechanics of their throwing motion. Neither is really subject to a "quick fix" for the day. With that said, I also think that Lilly will be a fine #3 for you guys.

Reds: C: David Ross 100 OPS+ 1B: Scott Hatteburg 96 OPS+ 2B: Brandon Phillips 68 OPS+ SS: Alex Gonzalez 80 OPS+ 3B: Edwin Encarnacion 105 OPS+ RF: Ryan Freel 94 OPS+ CF: Ken Griffey Jr. 121 OPS+ LF: Adam Dunn 132 OPS+ SP: Aaron Harang 109 ERA+ SP: Bronson Arroyo 122 ERA+ SP: Eric Milton 85 ERA+ SP: Kyle Lohse 98 ERA+ SP: Elizardo Ramirez 95 ERA+ 2006 Bullpen ERA/NL Rank: 4.38/10th Average Team OPS+: 100 Average Team ERA+: 102 Brewers: C: Johnny Estrada 92 OPS+ 1B: Prince Fielder 111 OPS+ 2B: Rickie Weeks 100 OPS+ SS: J.J. Hardy 86 OPS+ 3B: Corey Koskie 117 OPS+ RF: Geoff Jenkins 114 OPS+ CF: Brady Clark 98 OPS+ LF: Bill Hall 104 OPS+ SP: Ben Sheets 126 ERA+ SP: Chris Capuano 109 ERA+ SP: Claudio Vargas 99 ERA+ SP: David Bush 101 ERA+ SP: Carlos Villanueva 95 ERA+ 2006 Bullpen ERA/NL Rank: 5.00/16th Average Team OPS+: 103 Average Team ERA+: 106 Piratess: C: Ryan Doumit 100 OPS+ 1B: Xavier Nady 100 OPS+ 2B: Josa Castillo 78 OPS+ SS: Jack Wilson 85 OPS+ 3B: Freddy Sanchez 105 OPS+ RF: Jose Bautista 93 OPS+ CF: Chris Duffy 100 OPS+ LF: Jason Bay 140 OPS+ SP: Zach Duke 100 ERA+ SP: Ian Snell 95 ERA+ SP: Paul Maholm 95 ERA+ SP: Shawn Chacon 102 ERA+ SP: Tom Gorzelanny 95 ERA+ 2006 Bullpen ERA/NL Rank: 3.89/4th Average Team OPS+: 100 Average Team ERA+: 97 ------------------------------------- The Brewers are the class of the second grouping...but still well below the top three teams in my opinion (assuming Clemens goes to Houston). They have potentially a very solid rotation, but the bullpen was the worst in the NL last year, the defense is nothing special, and the lineup is relatively weak. The Reds have one of the worst defenses in the majors, (still) a below average bullpen, and a lineup that traded away the depth that made it above average at one point. Now, it's nothing special either. A team with way too many problems to be a contender even in this division. The Pirates just suck.

No thanks, I'll keep the one that can hit. :wink:

Last year due to his hip Izzy had by far the worst year he's had with the Cardinals. He's currently on pace to be ready for the beginning of the season after a successful surgery...I don't really think it's fair to consider him a potential non-factor. His return should improve the bullpen numbers. Wtih the return of Rincon, the available bullpen arms are: Izzy: .207 BAA, .630 OPS against, 2.85 ERA, 1.20 WHIP 3-year splits Looper: .239/.279/.305 vs righties 3-year split Springer: .218/.286/.359 vs righties 3-year split Rincon: .219/.277/.342 vs lefties 3-year split Flores: .222/.297/.341 vs lefties 3-year split Johnson: held lefties to .232 avg career so far Kinney: career 1.00 WHIP, 1.89 BAA, very good MiLB #s Thompson: career 1.24 WHIP, 3.14 ERA, 2.34 GB:FB long relief Hancock: career 1.30 WHIP, .252 BAA, 4.25 ERA long relief Others like Falkenborg will also be in the mix. IF Izzy is healthy, this bullpen will be just fine. One above average closer, two ROOGYs, three LOOGYs, a budding setup man who faces LHB and RHB both equally well, and two very capable long relievers to choose from. It stacks up favorably with most bullpens out there.

I'm using average OPS+ and ERA+ splits over the last three healthy years...counting only years with 20+ starts and >100 games played. If none of those apply, I assume exactly league average (100 for hitter, 95 for a SP): Cubs: C: Michael Barrett 113 OPS+ 1B: Derrek Lee 142 OPS+ 2B: Mark DeRosa 83 OPS+ SS: Cesar Izturis 72 OPS+ 3B: Aramis Ramirez 133 OPS+ RF: Alphonso Soriano 113 OPS+ CF: Jaque Jones 99 OPS+ LF: Matt Murton 103 OPS+ SP: Carlos Zambrano 144 ERA+ SP: Ted Lilly 103 ERA+ SP: Rich Hill 95 ERA+ SP: Jason Marquis 96 ERA+ SP: Mark Prior 135 ERA+ 2006 Bullpen ERA/NL Rank: 4.04/6th Average Team OPS+: 107 Average Team ERA+: 115 Cardinals: C: Yadier Molina 62 OPS+ 1B: Albert Pujols 174 OPS+ 2B: Adam Kennedy 95 OPS+ SS: David Eckstein 85 OPS+ 3B: Scott Rolen 142 OPS+ RF: Juan Encarnacion 97 OPS+ CF: Jim Edmonds 140 OPS+ LF: Chris Duncan 100 OPS+ SP: Chris Carpenter 138 ERA+ SP: ? [Miguel Batista 112 ERA+] ? SP: Anthony Reyes 95 ERA+ SP: Adam Wainwright 95 ERA+ SP: Kip Wells 101 ERA+ 2006 Bullpen ERA/NL Rank: 4.06/7th Average Team OPS+: 112 Average Team ERA+: 108 Astros: C: Brad Ausmus 67 OPS+ 1B: Lance Berkman 156 OPS+ 2B: Craig Biggio 99 OPS+ SS: Adam Everett 72 OPS+ 3B: Morgan Ensberg 119 OPS+ RF: Luke Scott 100 OPS+ CF: Willy Taveras 75 OPS+ LF: Carlos Lee 119 OPS+ SP: Roy Oswalt 139 ERA+ SP: ? [Roger Clemens 159 ERA+] ? SP: Woody Williams 98 ERA+ SP: Wandy Rodriquez 78 ERA+ SP: ? [Jason Hirsh 95 ERA+] ? 2006 Bullpen ERA/NL Rank: 3.94/5th Average Team OPS+: 101 Average Team ERA+: 114 ---------------------------------- Generally, there isn't a whole lot of seperation between the teams. The Astros have the biggest questions surrounding them because they need Clemens to resign in order to even have a shot. Their offense is the weakest of the three, with sinkholes in four regular lineup slots [CF, 2B, SS, C] and no prospects for upgrading any of them. Even if Clemens resigns, their rotation has the most questions....and that's saying something in this division. The Cubs and the Cards appear to be fairly close at this point. Both teams still have some serious questions of their own to be answered in their rotation (with the Cards having more...their rotation isn't even complete yet). The Cards, in my opinion, have the stronger defense. Both bullpens seem about equal. It's close enough that it's probably going to come down to which team can keep its key members healthier... Given the injury histories of some of the star players involved, it could very easily go either way. The Brewers are still statistically below the Astros...unless Clemens abandons ship. EDIT: I bolded those that I feel are most likely to differ significantly from their stated three year numbers. Straight bold = increase, italicized bold = decrease.

Suppan will cost more than 3/28.... Probably a fourth year at about 10 million per or more. Same goes for Zito...except he'll probably get five years or more and be in the neighborhood of 16 million per. Batista you could have had for that much...but honestly, and this is from a Cards fan who hates Jason mind you, Marquis probably has a lot more upside than Batista.

I'm under the impression that the "final offer" was or would have been in the range of 3/38-3/42. That's what I've seen reported anyway. Not an offer that would turn Schmidt's head at all...but I'd say it qualifies as "competitive" at least.

Like someone else said, I'll believe it when a credible national source picks it up. There's nothing on the Tribune website, on Chicago radio, on ESPN/Rotoworld/CBSsportsline....not anywhere. Just in a looney forum, and in Bernies pressbox...posted by a guy who later modified "done deal" to "should be finalized today" or some such nonesense. The only legitimate reference by a media member is in a bottom-line afterthought of a daily column. Either someone screwed up and reported the rumor as a done deal (likely), or Joe Strauss scooped the world on this news by a very large chunk of time (seems rather unlikely).

Similar early career stats, breakout seasons at the same age. So...nothing concrete. Soriano's most similar batters through age 30 are: Howard Johnson, Tony Bautista, Matt Williams, Bob Horner, Jeff Kent, Danny Tartabull, Geoff Jenkins, Ken Boyer, Joe Gordon, and Raul Mondesi. Soriano's most similar batters by age are: Tim Tueffel, Marcus Giles, Chase Utley, Marcus Giles, Joe Gordon, Howard Johnson. There's some pretty good players on those lists...but nobody that appears on any of the lists associated with Sammy Sosa. In addition, there's not a single HOF on the lists for Soriano...while HOFers appear nine times on the lists for Sosa. It's possible that Soriano's had some sort of batting evolution...but I wouldn't be getting my hopes up if I was a Cubs fan.

I'm sorry...what's the basis for comparing Soriano's career path to that of Sosa again?

Whys he love leading off so much is what I dont get?? I want him batting lower so he can drive in sum runs and do some damage Comfort? Ego possibly? His production is outstanding for a 2B, or a leadoff hitter...it's a lot less impressive for a corner OF in the middle of the order...

I took what he said to mean "if the Yankees handed out a contract like this." In that case, of course the Yankees would take flak for signing Soriano...they had one of the top offenses in the league last year. The Cubs were 15th in the NL in runs scored. The Yankees would deserve the criticism...but the Cubs don't necessarily. The signing itself is a fine one...he's a definite upgrade on an offense that sorely needed it. If Lee returns in full force next year, the offense will most likely be a part of the solution, not the problem. The contract itself potentially poses some interesting problems down the road...but a lot of the seriousness of those problems depends on how well the FA SP signings of this offseason pan out, and how healthy the team stays. Complete unknowns at this point, thus the contract itself isn't a hindrance yet.

To be fair, the Yankees have been doing stuff like this for years...the media is probably a bit numb to it by now.

:lol: If you had read GRB leading up to, and through, the WS, you would know why I find this so funny...

OPS is what you do yourself, not with the help of teammates. OPS+ adjusts for park factors. If you are going to compare guys, OPS+ is one of the best things to use. I understand OPS to a point. and I understand what the poster was saying . It makes sense. I guess I am looking at is more situationally then by stats. the three from the yankees lineup would seem to see more quality pitches to hit based on the rest of the lineup. Thats all I was implying. I do think that would impact OPS abut who knows by how much ARod and Giambi were monster hitters long before they found their way to the Yankees. Giambi's top two OPS+ years came with Oakland...three of ARod's top four came with different teams (SEA, TEX).

Aside from the outliers on both sides of the equation (great vs. terrible), corner OF defense is pretty much the same for any player. I'd rather a guy can hit the cut-off man properly. Most gappers that go for extra bases have more to do with positioning than with route running ability and such. I cannot get worked up about the corner outfield postions. If Soriano is in CF though, I worry. Dave Duncan says hi. :x Seriously though, you have a good point. Soriano in CF would be...an adventure...even in the cozy confines of Wrigley.

Oh, I agree that they aren't in bad shape at all right now. They still have the money to spend. The caveat is that, unlike the Yankees, the Cubs need their pitchers to produce. If they hand out 4/36 to Padilla and he bombs...they're screwed. Potentially for years. They're going to have somewhere in the neighborhood of 60-64 million in payroll committed to five players over the next three to four years (46% of the payroll)...they would be hard pressed to fill out a competitive roster (especially at today's prices) if they aren't getting real contributions from all five of those players. Once (if?) Zambrano re-ups next year...we're talking somewhere around 75-80ish for six players (~58%+ of the payroll). There's definitely not enough room for a bust signing now.

This is true. I will never argue that Hendry is good at payroll management. I think he's an inefficient boob with the dollars. However, the Yankees are also a team that puts up 95 win seasons in a down year. I would kill for the Cubs to have back to back 95 win seasons, let alone 6 straight, and 9 of 10. The Yankees have the payroll depth to do stupid things like Pavano/Wright/etc. and still get away with being competitive. The Cubs don't have the payroll room right now to make a mistake like that. With the current FA pitching market the way it is, there's a lot of mistakes out there waiting to happen. I think Hendry's next two signings are the ones that are going to make or break next year's team...and potentially even teams three years down the road. If he can nab two pitchers who produce to the levels of their contracts, the Cubs aren't in bad shape (assuming health). If he doesn't...well, the Cubs just won't have much money left to overcome that error (if any at all).

Also, didn't Manny lead the AL in outfield assists one year not so far past? I'm not trying to say that Soriano = Manny in the OF...just that OF assists isn't necessarily the best way to judge outfield defense. More than likely runners were testing him as often as they could while he was playing his new position...I'm not sure you can count on that trend continuing. If it doesn't, you're left with jumps and routes...things that had better improve before Soriano's speed starts slipping otherwise he's potentially going to be a great DH a little more than halfway through his contract.