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Rob

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Everything posted by Rob

  1. Rob
    For Russell or Baez, possibly. For Starlin, not close. FWIW, on MLBTR live chat the other day, Castro for Harvey and then Castro for Snydgaard and some other Met prospect were proposed and the host said the Mets say no to both. The Mets might say no. Sandy Alderson is nutty about his pitching prospects and adding even a paltry $6M to the payroll next year could be tough for the Wilpons. But the Cubs would never offer that, so it doesn't really matter.
  2. Rob
    Does anybody realize how good Castro's contract is? The market value of a win is somewhere between $5M-$7M right now, and increasing at a rate of roughly 5% per season (some say 10%). Projected Excess Value from 2015-2019: If the market value of a win is $5M: If the market value of a win is $5.5M At $6M At $6.5M And at $7M per win. Even if Castro never improves and stays a 3 WAR player forever, he's basically worth somewhere between $40M and $70M more than his contract will pay him over the next five years. We may not be maximizing the utility of that excess value due to our team currently sucking, but there are a lot of teams that need a SS. And it's not much of a stretch to imagine a bidding war for a 3 WAR SS entering his prime and projected to outperform his contract by a big margin. He's not getting traded unless we are overwhelmed with the offer. A straight up swap for a pitcher getting hit around in AAA just isn't happening. Any Mets fan convincing themselves to the contrary is blind.
  3. Rob
    .420 BABIP is totes sustainable And I thought I was being pretty generous by assuming Bryant would be able to keep his minor league K% at the major league level. It usually goes up.
  4. Rob
    I really hope we don't move Valbuena for scraps. Since he came to the Cubs in 2012, he's been worth 4.9 fWAR in 973 PA. (2.8 fWAR per 550 PA). How does that 2.8 fWAR per 550 PA compare to other guys? Pretty well. It puts him right in the middle of Ryan Zimmerman (2.9), Martin Prado (2.7) and Pablo Sandoval (2.6). You can make the argument that since Valbuena has been situationally used he should see that rate go down as he faces more lefties, but it still goes to show how useful he's been when he's been in our lineup. Giving him away for nothing would be awful.
  5. Rob
    Hit .250? Definitely could happen. Stanton has a strikeout rate around Bryant's minor league rate, and he's had a few seasons floating around .260 for his batting average. Don't see the .830 OPS though.
  6. Rob
    No chance. $22.5M for 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2018. Plus a $20M option on 2019 (automatically vests with 400 IP in 2017-2018) that has a $6M buyout. Hamels isn't exactly coming at a bargain over what a guy like Lester will cost. So why is he worth giving up top prospects for when we could just wait 3 months and acquire Lester? Maybe that makes sense for a contending team in the right spot, but the Cubs sure as hell aren't that.
  7. Rob
    Bingo. Russell is a pretty bad middle reliever (xFIP for the last 5 years: 4.23, 4.49, 4.35, 4.77, 4.45). Barney would have the worst wRC+ in baseball if he qualified. The only value that they have right now is that the market places a little value on each of them due to either left-handedness or defensive ability. So you take whatever it is that you can get. Because the alternatives are getting nothing or overpaying next year.
  8. Rob
    http://i.imgur.com/Thd4b.gif Glorious
  9. Rob
    Wow, this happened in a hurry. I will miss Samardzija, but this was a pretty solid return. I like Mckinney a lot, and I see Strailey as a prime candidate for a Bosio turnaround (aka, learning a cutter). I'm not as high on Russell as some, but he's still a hell of a prospect no matter how you cut it. I'm a little disappointed we weren't able to wrap in a couple guys like Darwin Barney or James Russell for an added return. I don't see either netting much on their own, and we don't have much to package them with at this point.
  10. Rob
    But there are a bunch of names on that list that could pretty easily be Scott Baker or Chris Volstad. They've convinced me they can actually compete in 2015, and for a team with such little certainty on the roster, there's quite a lot of worth in signing a pitcher with a floor above replacement level. There is, but how much is that worth? Personally, I'd rather be going after a guy like Maeda than Scherzer or Lester. They're different sorts of risks, but the window for contention lines up better with Maeda than the others. And you can use the leftover cash on an outfield upgrade.
  11. Rob
    True, but I don't think it will be a problem next year at least. Here's a list of the potential FA SP. There's a bunch of names on that list that could pretty easily be a Maholm, Feldman, Hammel type (including Maholm and Hammel).
  12. Rob
    Fascinating. Really great find. Finding out Derek Johnson is a believer makes it even more interesting, if only to see how it effects our pitching prospects.
  13. Rob

    John Baker

    Rob replied to davell's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk

    This year? I can't think of anybody. That said, he's not nearly as bad as that fWAR total makes him look. He had a .154 BABIP at the major league level. That's just terrible luck. Even Pedro Martinez put up a .174 BABIP as a hitter. An optimistic outcome at this point is looking like a halfway decent platoon guy and pinch hitter. But at least it's something. He was calling out Kyle. How did I miss that one?
  14. Rob
    Sounds a lot like Samardzija as a prospect, when you put it that way.
  15. Rob

    John Baker

    Rob replied to davell's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk

    This year? I can't think of anybody. That said, he's not nearly as bad as that fWAR total makes him look. He had a .154 BABIP at the major league level. That's just terrible luck. Even Pedro Martinez put up a .174 BABIP as a hitter. An optimistic outcome at this point is looking like a halfway decent platoon guy and pinch hitter. But at least it's something.
  16. Rob

    John Baker

    Rob replied to davell's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk

    Post-integration fWAR totals for Cubs hitters. John Baker comes in as the 65th worst bat (including pitchers). Some notable guys: 13 - Joe Mather (-2.0) 18 - Ronny Cedeno (-1.5) 22 - Aaron Miles (-1.4) 24 - Josh Vitters (-1.4) 26 - Koyie Hill (-1.3) 30 - Todd Zeile (-1.3) 31 - Ryan Dempster (-1.3) 34 - Howard Johnson (-1.2) 48 - Lenny Harris (-1.0) 54 - Candy Maldonado (-1.0) 59 - Steve Clevenger (-0.9) Also showing up in the top 100 were Ted Lilly, Matt Clement, Augie Ojeda, Rey Ordonez, and John Mabry. And here's the pitchers, if anybody is interested.
  17. Rob
    That's silly. The Blue Jays aren't going to stop looking for upgrades because they lost a couple guys. They're still in first place in the AL East and have the second best record in the AL. If anything, they're under more pressure now because they need to make sure they don't lose that playoff spot and the tens of millions of dollars it translates to in revenue. What's a couple risky farmhands compared to that?
  18. Rob
    For anybody who doesn't remember, he was drafted as a college position player. 1B/OF.
  19. Rob
    why was the situation so disappointing? the basic consensus was that Aiken/Rodon/Jackson were clear top-3 talents with a stray publication/opinion here & there throwing Kolek into that mix, and one of those guys made it to our pick we just didn't seem to value that player or the non-baseball baggage attached to him The big 3 were Aiken, Rodon, and Kolek. Hoffman was in that group as well before the injury. Jackson wasn't some consensus top pick. He was only talked about with the #2 because it was thought the Marlins might act like the Marlins and go cheap. Best prep bat? Sure. Top 3 talent, nope.
  20. Rob
    4:30 per pick. 26 more picks to go. That would be 1 hour and 57 minutes from now, so 9:53ish? But that doesn't account for all the time they waste on commercials and waiting for Bud to try to walk all the way up to the podium. Plus the potential break after the 1st round and/or after the supplemental round. 10:30ish seems right. Maybe 11. Edit: CST
  21. Rob
    We didn't really just draft Schwarber. We drafted Schwarber and kept a million or so bucks in reserve to grab an overslot pitcher or two. We can't really evaluate this pick until we see who those pitchers are.
  22. Rob
    Not sure how much I want Rodon. The talent is undeniable, but I'm worried about his arm.
  23. Rob
    Ok. I'm really late to starting to look at this stuff this year. I know there's a pretty big dropoff after the top 3. So who are we actually hoping to get, assuming one of the top 3 doesn't fall for whatever reason?
  24. Rob
    We accidentally replaced your heart with a baked potato. You have about three seconds to live.
  25. Rob
    I have absolutely zero interest in Jacob Turner. No strikeouts, and the walk and groundball rates are nothing to write home about. The raw stuff is unimpressive too. So really, the only things in his favor are his age and his walk rate in the low minors... Basically, he's a less impressive version of Kyle Hendricks with one less year of club control and some burned options. Even thinking about giving up a guy like Vogelbach or Alcantara is nuts.
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