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Rob

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Everything posted by Rob

  1. Rob
    Healing the wounds a few thousand years of the systematic repression and objectification of women has caused to our collective psyche. Also, somebody edits a poetry journal.
  2. Rob
    Yup. But no matter how bored I am I'm not going to individually parse through nearly 2000 posts containing the word rape. There's no way to come out of that one feeling good about the world.
  3. Rob
    Just because it's "one of those days" at the office. Incidence of the word rape on NSBB: 1905 matches total (this post will make 1906, yay!) 2014 - 128 (so far) 2013 - 78 2012 - 270 2011 - 300 2010 - 146 In summary, [expletive], I dunno. I guess how much we talk about rape depends on external factors, like Jerry Sandusky.
  4. Rob
    I'll never forgive Dusty for ruining DLee's 2005 MVP campaign. Cubs leadoff hitters that year hit .245/.299/.358. Gotta get those fast dudes up at the top of the lineup though.
  5. Rob
    The Mets pitching has three pretty fantastic talents (Harvey, Syndergaard, Wheeler), a solid #3 on a good contract (Niese), an interesting backend guy (deGrom), and some solid filler guys like Gee. As far as pitching goes, they're in wonderful shape. I just don't see the need to expend valuable assets to acquire any of their pitching. Pitching is the easiest thing to assemble off the scrap heap right now. This is doubly true with our bullpen situation looking pretty darn good right now. For now, we should be content to add a bunch of lottery-ticket upside guys in the draft and work off of reclamation projects. Once the hitting has arrived, we can talk about moving some of it for the high-end pitching help we might need. Until then, best to not trade relatively sure things and pray on the health of elbows and shoulders.
  6. Rob
    Nice. I cranked out about 40 votes this morning. First time I've voted in years, probably.
  7. Rob
    Rumor has it he's about to sign for more than $6.5M. Between that, Kolek's $6M bonus, and Aiken's whole situation I'm pretty happy with Schwarber (currently sporting a .432/.510/.864 line across two levels) for $3.125M.
  8. Rob
    A good #2-3 starter with a few years of team control remaining. Maybe a guy like Eovaldi.
  9. Rob
    I have a hard time seeing a deal.
  10. Rob
    For Russell or Baez, possibly. For Starlin, not close. FWIW, on MLBTR live chat the other day, Castro for Harvey and then Castro for Snydgaard and some other Met prospect were proposed and the host said the Mets say no to both. The Mets might say no. Sandy Alderson is nutty about his pitching prospects and adding even a paltry $6M to the payroll next year could be tough for the Wilpons. But the Cubs would never offer that, so it doesn't really matter.
  11. Rob
    Does anybody realize how good Castro's contract is? The market value of a win is somewhere between $5M-$7M right now, and increasing at a rate of roughly 5% per season (some say 10%). Projected Excess Value from 2015-2019: If the market value of a win is $5M: If the market value of a win is $5.5M At $6M At $6.5M And at $7M per win. Even if Castro never improves and stays a 3 WAR player forever, he's basically worth somewhere between $40M and $70M more than his contract will pay him over the next five years. We may not be maximizing the utility of that excess value due to our team currently sucking, but there are a lot of teams that need a SS. And it's not much of a stretch to imagine a bidding war for a 3 WAR SS entering his prime and projected to outperform his contract by a big margin. He's not getting traded unless we are overwhelmed with the offer. A straight up swap for a pitcher getting hit around in AAA just isn't happening. Any Mets fan convincing themselves to the contrary is blind.
  12. Rob
    .420 BABIP is totes sustainable And I thought I was being pretty generous by assuming Bryant would be able to keep his minor league K% at the major league level. It usually goes up.
  13. Rob
    I really hope we don't move Valbuena for scraps. Since he came to the Cubs in 2012, he's been worth 4.9 fWAR in 973 PA. (2.8 fWAR per 550 PA). How does that 2.8 fWAR per 550 PA compare to other guys? Pretty well. It puts him right in the middle of Ryan Zimmerman (2.9), Martin Prado (2.7) and Pablo Sandoval (2.6). You can make the argument that since Valbuena has been situationally used he should see that rate go down as he faces more lefties, but it still goes to show how useful he's been when he's been in our lineup. Giving him away for nothing would be awful.
  14. Rob
    Hit .250? Definitely could happen. Stanton has a strikeout rate around Bryant's minor league rate, and he's had a few seasons floating around .260 for his batting average. Don't see the .830 OPS though.
  15. Rob
    No chance. $22.5M for 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2018. Plus a $20M option on 2019 (automatically vests with 400 IP in 2017-2018) that has a $6M buyout. Hamels isn't exactly coming at a bargain over what a guy like Lester will cost. So why is he worth giving up top prospects for when we could just wait 3 months and acquire Lester? Maybe that makes sense for a contending team in the right spot, but the Cubs sure as hell aren't that.
  16. Rob
    Bingo. Russell is a pretty bad middle reliever (xFIP for the last 5 years: 4.23, 4.49, 4.35, 4.77, 4.45). Barney would have the worst wRC+ in baseball if he qualified. The only value that they have right now is that the market places a little value on each of them due to either left-handedness or defensive ability. So you take whatever it is that you can get. Because the alternatives are getting nothing or overpaying next year.
  17. Rob
    http://i.imgur.com/Thd4b.gif Glorious
  18. Rob
    Wow, this happened in a hurry. I will miss Samardzija, but this was a pretty solid return. I like Mckinney a lot, and I see Strailey as a prime candidate for a Bosio turnaround (aka, learning a cutter). I'm not as high on Russell as some, but he's still a hell of a prospect no matter how you cut it. I'm a little disappointed we weren't able to wrap in a couple guys like Darwin Barney or James Russell for an added return. I don't see either netting much on their own, and we don't have much to package them with at this point.
  19. Rob
    But there are a bunch of names on that list that could pretty easily be Scott Baker or Chris Volstad. They've convinced me they can actually compete in 2015, and for a team with such little certainty on the roster, there's quite a lot of worth in signing a pitcher with a floor above replacement level. There is, but how much is that worth? Personally, I'd rather be going after a guy like Maeda than Scherzer or Lester. They're different sorts of risks, but the window for contention lines up better with Maeda than the others. And you can use the leftover cash on an outfield upgrade.
  20. Rob
    True, but I don't think it will be a problem next year at least. Here's a list of the potential FA SP. There's a bunch of names on that list that could pretty easily be a Maholm, Feldman, Hammel type (including Maholm and Hammel).
  21. Rob
    Fascinating. Really great find. Finding out Derek Johnson is a believer makes it even more interesting, if only to see how it effects our pitching prospects.
  22. Rob

    John Baker

    Rob replied to davell's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk

    This year? I can't think of anybody. That said, he's not nearly as bad as that fWAR total makes him look. He had a .154 BABIP at the major league level. That's just terrible luck. Even Pedro Martinez put up a .174 BABIP as a hitter. An optimistic outcome at this point is looking like a halfway decent platoon guy and pinch hitter. But at least it's something. He was calling out Kyle. How did I miss that one?
  23. Rob
    Sounds a lot like Samardzija as a prospect, when you put it that way.
  24. Rob

    John Baker

    Rob replied to davell's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk

    This year? I can't think of anybody. That said, he's not nearly as bad as that fWAR total makes him look. He had a .154 BABIP at the major league level. That's just terrible luck. Even Pedro Martinez put up a .174 BABIP as a hitter. An optimistic outcome at this point is looking like a halfway decent platoon guy and pinch hitter. But at least it's something.
  25. Rob

    John Baker

    Rob replied to davell's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk

    Post-integration fWAR totals for Cubs hitters. John Baker comes in as the 65th worst bat (including pitchers). Some notable guys: 13 - Joe Mather (-2.0) 18 - Ronny Cedeno (-1.5) 22 - Aaron Miles (-1.4) 24 - Josh Vitters (-1.4) 26 - Koyie Hill (-1.3) 30 - Todd Zeile (-1.3) 31 - Ryan Dempster (-1.3) 34 - Howard Johnson (-1.2) 48 - Lenny Harris (-1.0) 54 - Candy Maldonado (-1.0) 59 - Steve Clevenger (-0.9) Also showing up in the top 100 were Ted Lilly, Matt Clement, Augie Ojeda, Rey Ordonez, and John Mabry. And here's the pitchers, if anybody is interested.
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