Rob
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Everything posted by Rob
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There was an article on fangraphs the other day that said every single division is projected to be won by 5 games or more right now. That includes the Astros in the AL West, where the Rangers strong record last year came with just a +8 run differential -- they were just an insane 36-11 in one-run games.
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Starting next year all HOF votes will be made public
Rob replied to OleMissCub's topic in General Baseball Talk
Bagwell Bonds Clemens Martinez Mussina Raines Ramirez Rodriguez Schilling Walker This is the only acceptable ballot. Sheffield, Guerrero, and Sosa are all a step behind Walker. And voting for closers is dumb, especially when there's a logjam of deserving candidates and a stupid 10 person per ballot limit. -
Yeah, I can't be anything but happy for Fowler. He got that multi-year deal that he deserves. If the Cardinals weren't a pit of mediocrity I might feel different. But it's not like the Cardinals are actually threatening us for the division title right now even with Dexter, so that helps to make this easier to swallow.
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[tweet] [/tweet]
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I'd have more interest in the recently non-tendered Rubby de la Rosa anyways.
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Cubs trading Soler to KC for Wade Davis
Rob replied to Transmogrified Tiger's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
I think we're trying to keep some payroll flexibility for Harper or Otani or whoever in the coming seasons. This isn't a FA market that we should be spending big on. -
[tweet] [/tweet] Something tells me that's probably not all guaranteed.
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I think there's more payroll room than that. I'd be highly surprised if we don't trade Montero and Soler. We may have to eat a good chunk of Montero's contract, but that's still some savings.
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They've got about $30 mil to play with, give or take, after arbitration if they want to match last year's opening day salary total. I just didn't expect 25% of it to go to a platoon outfielder for Almora. I think that's underselling it. It's the strong side of the platoon, and he helps to fill in for some very real weaknesses on our team as presently constructed (like the idea that Schwarber or Soler might pretend to play defense in the late innings). Jay is going to play in a lot of games this year, if healthy. When MLB revenues go up like 10% annually, this is the sort of thing that happens. $8M now is basically what $4-5M was when Theo and Jed took over.
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a one WAR salary for a one WAR player? Is that how much 1 WAR is worth now? Was just watching MLB Now today and they said a replacement level 1 WAR player is worth about $5 million. If the going rate is actually $8 million that's nuts. The last time I saw it mentioned at Fangraphs, it was at $8.5M per WAR now. This is fine. I dislike that it makes it even less likely we're bringing Fowler back, but Jay is a nice fit in that case.
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I just found myself thinking about the Florida Marlins and Loria's roster teardowns after they would push all-in for a season. Just imagine how bad it would suck if Tom Ricketts was like "well, that was great. Now Theo, I need you to get rid of everybody."
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If that's true, I get this weird gut feeling we're about to see Billy Beane trade for Sale and then flip him to the Cubs.
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Bauer has 4 years, Odorizzi has 3. Odorizzi I probably still like better as a pitcher, but if you think his HR problem is more structural to him than the Rays, or that he won't be able to start getting righties out(he has a very odd reverse split), then Bauer is close enough to be as attractive an option, especially when you consider the team control and likely player cost. Yeah, I'm not sold on Bauer as enough of a "team player" to fit the Cubs. He's tough to coach and stubborn about his routine, so the upside and versatility are both limited.
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I think this really illustrates the misunderstanding of the scale that relievers operate on. I'd give Chapman something absurd like 6/180 before I considered Cecil at 7-8 million. Chapman and Jansen are cheat codes and have proven themselves far more immune to the volatility that suppresses reliever cost than Cecil. Part of it is I just don't like Chapman as a person. I didn't want us to trade for him because of it, and I'd rather we not sign him for it now. And I'm just not buying that there's a reliever that is that much more immune to volatility. It wasn't that long ago that people were talking about Craig Kimbrel like they're talking about Jansen now. I'll agree that I don't want Cecil at that price, but I still think it's fine to spread the money among cheaper options and hope you get guys like Rondon and Strop have turned out to be.
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Damn, I sorta wanted Cecil rather than see us spending on Jansen/Chapman.
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I love Eovaldi as a rehab target.
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I'm pretty shocked by this, to be honest. Hammel has been dealing some injuries and been less effective as a result, but we must not think we're going to be able to get him anywhere near peak to not be worth just $12M for one year. I'd be surprised if we're just handing a rotation spot to Montgomery. Something tells me this is a signal that the front office has big plans again this offseason. I'm guessing we will see Soler moved in a deal for a young SP.
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I believe that deadline is tomorrow.
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I can just picture Theo and Jed getting drunk and coming up with increasingly harder challenges for themselves for next season. Theo: "I bet I can win without any lefties in my bullpen." Jed: "Child's play, I bet we can win without a bullpen entirely. Let's make tandem starts a thing again." Theo: "Oh, fun! But let's not add any SP to make that happen. Maybe make Baez and Soler learn how to pitch?" Jed: "Let's go win another World Series."
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Wow. $250. That should keep the lights on for a while longer.
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It's worth noting that the Cardinals last played on October 2nd.
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The more I think about it, the happier I am at the way this all played out. All the drama just seems fitting. More importantly, with Chapman blowing the save the Cubs were able to win the WS with somebody who (presumably) isn't an awful person on the mound. I'll always remember how that game ended, and I'm glad not to have a domestic abuser playing the hero for the Cubs.
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I feel like dying... but in the good way?
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I'll drink to that!
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I honestly don't know what to do with myself. I'm just sitting here smiling like a jackass and frantically tuning into social media to see how excited everybody else is.
