Rob

I've given Hendry his props this offseason. The Aramis, Miller, and Wood signings were very nicely done. And if I had heard the Angels had signed Soriano to this contract, I would have sighed in relief. I'd been scared all offseason that Hendry was going to do something stupid with all this money. Now I guess I don't have to be scared anymore...

:( Terribly sorry, I forgot/was too hasty to remember you and CubinNY. I think Jon is pretty much in our camp too...and I haven't really seen anything from Navin either way, but its been tough to keep up. Yeah, Jon and I certainly are in your camp. I think I joined your club too.

And the fact his numbers are even in the same ballpark as Soriano's while he'd be lucky to get a contract at all doesn't scare you?

I gave Hendry a lot of credit for getting Aramis signed. Matsuzaka looks like a real ace while watching him pitch, and when you translate the numbers to MLB level. While perhaps I erred to say he's been more productive, I sincerely do believe he will be more productive by plenty than Soriano will. Once again, three year splits are more indicitive of future performance than five year splits, but I will grant there was probably a bit of selection bias in the years I chose. Then again, you'd think putting him in Texas should have helped your case, not hurt it... which is a scary thought. And I do agree with you... so long as we win a World Series, it's fine by me to have to deal with this contract. But I am concerned we're going to have a hard time winning a world series while holding this contract on our hands.

The only way to prove that is to show that Walker's playing time is differently distributed(i.e. to favor his platoon splits) than a "starter" like Soriano. And even if he did get put in more favorable matchups, it speaks that 1-2 marginal to decent players in the right situation can nearly replicate Soriano's production. That truly is funny. Todd Walker can't hit 40 HR's, 40 doubles, and steal any bases. You may not value those numbers, but realty baseball does. Not just selective percentages. last year, someone tried to claim Todd was better offensively than Tejada. What a joke. Realty is greater than fantasy baseball. Walker might do better than Soriano on the basepaths if he doesn't attempt to steal any at all. I haven't crunched Soriano's SB numbers yet, but something tells me he fell just below the breakeven point... costing the team runs because of all the time he got caught stealing. I don't believe I ever made the argument that Todd Walker could hit 40 HRs or 40 doubles (though he has hit in excess of 35 doubles 3 times since 2001... even while getting about 60% of the PT Soriano gets the last few seasons). I made the argument that Todd Walker is close enough in value to Soriano that they can be compared (though he certainly is not better). My point was that Walker will be lucky to get 2/8 this offseason... and Soriano is getting 6 extra years and over 100 million dollars extra. All I was pointing out is the disparity between Soriano's talent level and what he's getting paid. He's getting a contract approximately like Manny's... and he is nowhere near that performance level.

You can make a case that Soriano's total production is roughly equivalent to Drew's production when he's only playing 120 games. Unfortunately, Drew would have a plus glove in CF, whereas we feel we have to play Soriano in RF, which makes his production worth less relative to the rest of the league. Drew is the better ballplayer. Manny has the arm to play right, and there's no doubt his bat fits in anywhere on the diamond. I don't know of a whole lot of people who feel the same about Soriano. Matsuzaka... I wouldn't have made a bid of 51 mil for him (cause I didn't think that'd be what it ended up taking), but I'd probably be willing to pay it. He's a top-of-the-rotation starter if you look at his translations. He's exactly the kind of guy worth overpaying for. ARod has been rumored to be available for a package of approximately Eyre, Prior, Moore, and Pie. (assuming we don't want salary help). He would have been worth it. The Marlins are huge on Pie. Pie and Hill alone might be enough to get a deal done for the best young hitter in the game. If there's one player out there I'd want to build a team around for the next decade... it's not Pujols or Beltran or anybody... it's Cabrera. I'd go as far as Pie, Hill, Veal, and Gallagher.... and I doubt they'd turn that down.

First off, Soriano clocks in at #4 on the "readily-available" market. Aramis, Matsuzaka, and Drew all have been and will continue to be more productive than Soriano for the immediate future. And there's a huge drop down in production from those top 3 to Soriano. That doesn't even take into account the fact we could easily get a few guys in trades, too. ARod, Manny, and Cabrera are all out there for the taking right now... and they're all exponentially better bets than Soriano. I'll hold off complaining about the contract for the time being, as we have no hard figures... but the fact remains that sinking that kind of money and years into a merely "very good" at best player is fiscally irresponsible. Is that much of an issue of the Cubs continue to bump payroll? Probably not for 3-5 years at least... once he declines, it could be trouble (but there is the chance there's some option years we can get out of). The real issue at hand is what happens if the Cubs are sold soon (as has been rumored). If a new ownership group cuts the payroll to the $100 mil level, this signing would be enough to drag this team down the crapper for half a decade. Let's do an experiment. I'll give you Soriano's numbers and a mystery player. You tell me how much this mystery player is worth to you. 2004: Soriano - .280/.324/.484 OPS+ of 98 Player X - .274/.352/.468 OPS+ of 105 2005: Soriano - .268/.309/.512 OPS+ of 110 Player X - .305/.355/.474 OPS+ of 115 2006: Soriano - .277/.351/.560 OPS+ of 132 Player X - .278/.355/.398 OPS+ of 93 Both players had years in 2006 out of line with their career numbers. While Player X is indeed three years older, he has shown himself to be quite capable of outperforming Soriano by doing so 2 of the last 3 years. Would you even think of giving Todd Walker five million per year for 4 years to patrol right field? How about seventeen million per? I sure as hell wouldn't... But he's not that far from being comprable to Soriano as an offensive threat.

Looks like pitching is the next item on the to-do list. So does this end all hope of bringing in JD Drew?

Igawa, Westbrook, Hudson are about the only three available guys worth looking at... and Hudson only if you can get the Braves to pick up some of the contract. I wouldn't mind Jennings, but rumor has it the Rockies asked for Hill... uh, no.

Co-sign.

I just hope this doesn't keep us from getting an actual impact bat. Mr. Hendry still loves the toolsy dudes. He's Buffalo Bill, he covets what he knows. That's the second time I've seen you use the Buffalo Bill comment. Are you trying to get somebody to make a sig pic for you? :lol: "It puts the lotion on its skin, or else it gets the hose again!

I just hope this doesn't keep us from getting an actual impact bat.

You'll have plenty of time to revel in this over the next eight freaking years... would you mind giving us a few minutes to gripe amongst ourselves in peace?

ESPN reporting it now too.

I'm not being sarcastic. He isn't worth 8 figures. Hell most players in baseball are not worth their contracts. He is overpaid, and probably overrated, but still, match him up with Lee, and Aram...and we have some major thunder in the lineup now. No, he's not major thunder, that's the point. For crying out loud, Barrett is probably just as good if not better offensively after they both regress from their career years. One more time: Soriano 2004: .280 .324 .484 .808 2005: .268 .309 .512 .821 2006: .277 .351 .560 .911 Why leave out 03 and 02? Three year splits are more indicitive of future performances than five year splits, typically. I do find it funny, though... you'd think starting his splits the year he went to one of the best hitters parks in the league would be helpful.

Cognitive dissonance is running amok in this thread...

The only players with more upside than Hill are Veal, Pawelek (maybe) and Huseby. Veal hasn't had to deal with the more patient hitters at AA yet, Pawelek is unproven at best, and Huseby is really really far away from what he might become. Hill easily has the best projection based on upside and readiness. They aren't a whole lot of "prospects" with much more stature than Hill right now. He's cheap and has #1 or #2 starter stuff... and major league ready. That's a pretty rare combo.

Really? I was under the impression they had Barret signed through 2008. I could be wrong and just misinterpreting some statements I heard somewhere on the board here. Barret signed a 3 year contract in 05. That makes 07 his last year under the current contract. Hm, there you go. Yeah, stupid facts always having to go and kill conversations... damn facts.

The Book disagrees The Book on The Book? I don't remember that part... I think he means Tangotiger's The Book. I don't know why I keep forgetting about Tangotiger...

The Book disagrees The Book on The Book? I don't remember that part...

Gonzalez isn't an above average defender. I'm confused - this is the Red Sox Alex Gonzalez who should have won the gold glove right? And you don't think he is even above average?? The name and team are right... but that description doesn't fit him at all.

Really? I was under the impression they had Barret signed through 2008. I could be wrong and just misinterpreting some statements I heard somewhere on the board here. Barret signed a 3 year contract in 05. That makes 07 his last year under the current contract.

good. i would much rather have 4 years of drew than 5-6 of soriano. I dont see why everyone thinks we can only have one or the other. With a $115 Million payroll, there is no reason we cant have both. We can, but that would leave us only about 5 million for pitching to try to fill 2 spots. If we got both Soriano and Drew, and added them into the lineup with guys like Ramirez and Lee, we could live with having a rotation of Z, Prior, Miller, Marshall, Marmol/whatever other minor leaguer you want. No, no we couldn't. And Gil Meche is $8 mil better than Marshall, Marmol, Guzman, Gallagher, etc... since when? I'd rather go for broke on the offense if that's where the real difference makers in FA are than spend on marginal pitching "upgrades" just because our pitching is bad.

So is he available for birthday parties or what?

It's not used as a predictor of success as much as it's used to spot fluky seasons. I'm sure this has been mentioned in the thread before now. Rob's the one who brought up future success, not me. Perhaps my wording could have been improved. BABIP aids in spotting flukey seasons... knowing which seasons are indicitatve of a player's true level of skill and which are truly out of line with it aids in predicting future deviations from the most recent season (i.e. successes or failures) Better?