Rob

A lot of people on here seem to forget 2009 ever happened. Harden was the WORST starter on our team and was shut down with shoulder issues at the end of the season. Given the Cubs financial state they couldn't risk paying him 9 or 10 million if he accepted. I'd love the Cubs to have an unlimited budget but they don't and Harden isn't a an asset at that type of salary. Actually, Harden had a lower xFIP than Lilly, Zambrano, Dempster, and Wells. He was our best starter.

A move down in the defensive spectrum probably costs Theriot about .5 WAR after you factor in his defense getting better (though in fewer chances) and the higher offensive requirements of the position. Factor in that he's coming out of his peak years, and I'd probably start looking to unload him after he clears about $6 mil per season in salary. And that's assuming a complete lack of internal options, which wont be the case.

The new methodology involves not just LD%, but the raw numbers of ground balls, fly balls, and pop outs as well as at bats, strikeouts, home runs (as a proxy for power, I would assume) and stolen bases (as a proxy for speed). It even involves park factors. Thankfully, all of those numbers are easily available. If I wanted to calculate actual xBABIP, I'd need to have spray charts and everything, but this gets pretty damn close to it.

Bench is up!

Yeah, but that's probably two weeks worth of work to get my spreadsheet to handle that. Off the top of my head, I'd have to output their full batting lines instead of just slash stats, use that to calculate EqA, use EqA to calculate EqR, and then adjust that figure. Considering it's finals season, you're probably gonna need to wait a while unless I manage to think up a shortcut.

Last August, I made a quick and dirty attempt to calculate what we should expect our players' BABIPs to be, and then adjusted their batting lines accordingly. (Located here) All in all, I was pretty pleased with the work, but another reader pointed out that my methodology could have been a touch better if I had bothered to use xBABIP (a formula developed by The Hardball Times) instead of the lazy LD% + .120 rule of thumb. Well, I still don't have access to xBABIP, but I do have a tool developed by the Hardball Times designed to give a much more accurate estimation than simple LD% + .120. So I figured what the hell. This is our team with neutral luck (more or less). Round 2 begins below with our starting lineup for most of the year (and both major 2B). Quick stats lesson for the uninitiated found under the spoiler: Player - Geovany Soto Actual Line - .218/.321/.381 Expected Line - .269/.365/.450 Comments - Just like I said last time, his sophomore slump is grossly overstated. He's a fine young catcher who just had terrible luck this year. Player - Derrek Lee Actual Line - .306/.393/.579 Expected line - .293/.382/.561 Comments - His great season looks a bit less impressive in this light, but not by enough to make me any less excited about his resurgence. Player - Mike Fontenot Actual Line - .236/.301/.377 Expected line - .268/.329/.418 Comments - Nasty slump and a touch of bad luck. I expect better next season, but we should be looking at external options for our 2010 starter. Player - Jeff Baker Actual Line - .288/.343/.425 Expected line - .260/.318/.389 Comments - Can we please put to rest the idea that Baker deserves a real shot at the starting job next season? He had a nice, luck-powered streak in Chicago, but he's the short side of a platoon player and occasional backup at 3B. Player - Ryan Theriot Actual Line - .284/.343/.369 Expected line - .294/.352/.381 Comments - Missing a handful of hits. Player - Aramis Ramirez Actual Line - .317/.389/.516 Expected line - .290/.365/.484 Comments - Not a whole lot to say. He was about what you'd expect from him if you factor in a nasty shoulder injury costing him half the season. He was a bit lucky, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him keep putting up his actual line anyways once his shoulder gets healthy again. Player - Alfonso Soriano Actual Line - .241/.303/.423 Expected line - .260/.320/.447 Comments - Somewhat comforting to think the decline wasn't quite as steep as it looked, but it's still a pretty bad line from a player who is getting older and showing serious injury concerns. Player - Kosuke Fukudome Actual Line - .257/.375/.421 Expected line - .279/.392/.462 Comments - Fukudome suffers the most from the new methodology (although that september swoon didn't help). Still, a pretty good season turns into an all-star one. Player - Milton Bradley Actual Line - .257/.378/.397 Expected line - .268/.387/.411 Comments - We all knew he hadn't had any problems getting on base, and while he was slightly unlucky in that regard, adjusting for luck doesn't do anything to give him back any of his power outage. Bench players coming when I get around to it. Bench: Player - Koyie Hill Actual Line - .237/.312/.324 Expected Line - .243/.317/.332 Comments - A hit and a half off. Player - Jake Fox Actual Line - .259/.311/.468 Expected Line - .275/.325/.488 Comments - Looking a bit better. Player - Micah Hoffpauir Actual Line - .239/.300/.427 Expected Line - .259/.317/.453 Comments - He wasn't ever going to keep up that 40% line drive rate he had in 2008. This is more like what you'll see from him, which isn't bad for a bench guy making the league minimum. Player - Andres Blanco Actual Line - .252/.303/.341 Expected Line - .280/.329/.377 Comments - Blanco has been below his expected line in 2005 and 2006 as well (he didn't play in the majors in 07 or 08). If he can start actually putting up the line he should be, he could be a quality SS considering his glove. He'll be 26 next year and entering his prime, so I might not place a nice career beyond him just yet. Player - Aaron Miles Actual Line - .185/.224/.242 Expected Line - .271/.306/.355 Comments - We all knew that there was no way that anybody could really be that bad, but even adjusting his line up by 100 points doesn't make it look anything but crappy. Another cautionary tale of paying too much for a player without a real skillset to speak of. Player - Bobby Scales Actual Line - .242/.312/.411 Expected Line - .254/.323/.429 Comments - It was a fun little story to have him called up finally at age 31. And he certainly held his own, though I sincerely doubt he's capable of putting up a .200 IsoP year after year. Player - Sam Fuld Actual Line - .299/.409/.412 Expected Line - .299/.409/.412 Comments - He is missing out on nine-thousandths of a single hit using this methodology. While I don't think he can keep putting up a LD% of 24.7%, he's our best internal option if we absolutely must send Milton Bradley packing. Player - Reed Johnson Actual Line - .255/.330/.412 Expected Line - .281/.353/.448 Comments - Yet another in a long line of our players missing out on 3-5 hits. In his case, it may have been enough that he'll have lowered his price and return to the team next year. Player - Tyler Colvin Actual Line - .176/.250/.176 Expected Line - .272/.331/.272 Comments - Normally I wouldn't bother on a guy with 20 PA, but this is the closest thing to a real prospect we brought up last season and he hit the ball well enough for those 20 PA that he should have gotten another hit or two. And a bonus player! Player - Carlos Zambrano Actual Line - .217/.225/464 Expected Line - .237/.245/.493 Comments - Carlos was robbed!

I think the best thing they could do is to decide to keep Bradley, then immediately get the PR wheels turning and try to mend fences between Bradley and the fans. Really! That clown hates us (Cubs fans) and the city of Chicago. Screw him! I have a disdain for him like no other. In fact, I have never hated another player more in my time of watching professional sports. The time he hit a home run and then mocked the cheering fans, as to say, "keeping talking" makes my blood boil. I would take another hundred years of losing just to see this clown not wearing a Cubs uniform ever again. (ok, maybe that's a bit extreme) But none the less, Bradley is a clueless, joke of a human being that needs to be removed from this team at ANY cost! Point blank! I don't care if he puts up 01' Barry Bonds like numbers, this team won't win with him. Thankfully the people that don't mind keeping him, aren't the people making decisions for the Cubs this year. He will be gone! You and I couldn't agree less, but at least you admit that the driving force behind your decision is your selfish desire to simply be rid of him, despite the consequences to the team. You have a right to that opinion.

Completely inexcusable. I hope you know you made me cry.

Anybody speak spanish? http://www.escogido.com/Contents/Articulos/Noticias/20091126-Starlin-Castro-esto-es-grandioso.ashx

Starlin Castro is playing for Escogido now. Jake Fox is on the Licey squad as well. Looks like it's time to start paying attention to the DWL.

Personally, I'd be more interested in trading Theriot when the time comes. But I am glad to see that the Cubs seem to be planning on Castro as a big part of our future, quite possibly soon. I was a bit worried we'd be thinking of trading him away while his value is high, or perhaps shifting him to 2B to accommodate our already entrenched SS.

Nobody is trying to find the next Castro here. The numbers these guys put up are pretty decent though. Alcantara is a switch hitting middle infielder who has either pretty good speed or good base stealing skills judging by his 91% success rate. Plus, he put up a pretty decent IsoD meaning he should have some sense of plate discipline. If he can be a middle of the road defender, he could be a good SS prospect. Rosario's peripherals are excellent and he's been pushed through the system pretty quickly early on. Rarely do these guys turn into anything, but there's some nice results from some no names so far. I would love people to bring up some similar no-names with a semblance of potential. Farm systems have built up to some decent coverage, but the rookie leagues are still hard to follow. That's all wonderful but these guys are so young and played at a low level league that none of this is really worth talking about because there have been thousands who have done this and gone on to never get to even AAA ball. Then why are you in the minor league forum? Dollars to dimes says he didn't realize he was in the minor league forum. There's no other reason for such stupid posts.

These two posts are very, very correct. And in case anybody wants to try to dispute them, I should remind them.

There's a whole lot of stupid going through this thread.

Not sure what the logic would be behind spending on a closer, but not on guys that pitch in higher-leverage situations in the 7th and 8th. you're confusing the issues. Are there occasionally higher leverage situations inthe 7th and 8th inning that should have us reevaluating current usage patterns for closers? Yes. But the vast majority of closers still have significantly higher leverage than any other relievers.

Who wants to pay Byrd what he wants? And how much does he want?

Given the high variability of most relievers, I would absolutely rather have the Cubs dumpster diving for a close to league-minimum paid bullpen (with the probable exception of closer) if it allowed to them to allocate those financial resources elsewhere. This is especially true for our farm system, which has proven time and time again that it can spit out some decent pitchers to slot into that bullpen. It's not just a Pirates thing. Smart GMs don't break the bank on their bullpen.

Please tell me you're joking, davearm.

Please, for the love of god, will people stop trying to say we replaced Mark DeRosa with Aaron Miles? We replaced DeRosa with a combination of Fontenot and Miles at 2B, depending on who was pitching. Jake Fox at 3B. And Fox, Hoff, and Fuld in the OF.

I don't see how that's surprising. Huntington has done a hell of a job since he was hired.

When evaluating Halladay's trade value, there are a few key points to remember. 1) The potential return has to be better than the two high draft picks that Toronto would likely receive after the season. 2) Our package must be better than any competitor's package. Santana was had for a "meh" handful of prospects, but that's in large part because nobody was bidding on him. We're gonna have to wait and see what the rumors floating around from other teams are before we can decide whether the package is likely to require Castro and Cashner as the starting point, or whether it might only require something like Vitters and Carpenter plus a few minor pieces.

By rule, we cannot trade anybody from the most recent draft, which includes Brett Jackson.

Castillo, Dolis, Gaub, Parker, and Adduci were all added to the 40 tonight. They are now protected from the Rule 5. The only real surprise in the group was Adduci.

I said weeks before we even thought about it that trading DeRosa would be a good idea. Granted, a large portion of that was based on the idea that Fontenot would play like 85% of DeRosa and the Cardinals were not a real threat for the division crown, but it was still the right call to make at the time. Hindsight doesn't change that. I'll admit that at the time of the trade, I was a bit upset, thinking we could have possibly gotten more for him. But I conceded that if there's one thing Hendry is good at, it's picking good young talent to trade for. Ceda for Walker, Burke for Barrett, etc... This appears to be another one of those situations.

Good negotiating move by the Blue Jays. They know getting us involved will only drive the price up. And I'm sure Hendry realizes that, even if he has no intention of giving up what it takes to get Halladay, staying involved in negotiations will increase the price other teams need to pay. I predict this to drag a long while, but for us to never get terribly close to acquiring him.