Rob

Obviously you aren't aware that beer is a potent diuretic, especially when you have six to ten. And that's before the game starts. Real fans know to pregame elsewhere, as the ballpark beers are expensive. Also, real fans get drunk enough before the game that they forget they don't need to keep drinking the expensive ballpark beers all during the game. +1 Although, I continue to drink during the game - and after. Oh yeah, I have a philosophy. Go hard or go home. Generally speaking when I head to a Cubs game, I crash at a friend's house the night before, wake up and hit the bars about 2-3 hours before the game starts. Then I keep the beer vendors busy until the game is over. Grab dinner, hit up the bars, and head to Carol's around 2 and stay til they kick us out. One of these days, I'll be too old to make that trip. I already find I can't do it nearly as often as I used to be able to.

Obviously you aren't aware that beer is a potent diuretic, especially when you have six to ten. And that's before the game starts. Real fans know to pregame elsewhere, as the ballpark beers are expensive. Also, real fans get drunk enough before the game that they forget they don't need to keep drinking the expensive ballpark beers all during the game.

Obviously you aren't aware that beer is a potent diuretic, especially when you have six to ten.

Nothing quite like those restrooms after the game. Everybody walking slowly down the length of the trough while they piss.

This is a pointless argument. The vast majority of the time when Bradley's healthy, he's very good. Last year's power outage was an obvious fluke... his IsoP hasn't been that low since 2001.

Cameron is obviously the priority, and he knows he's likely maximizing his value to wait until the Cubs have dealt Bradley and can truly start bidding for his services. I wouldn't worry too much about us having to resort to the likes of Ankiel or Pods just yet. I've been saying I'd be extremely interested in Putz, provided he's not asking for too much. He's a real shutdown guy when healthy, and it's definitely worth watching him throw a few times and getting the medical reports.

I'll say it again, you're confusing yourself. Do you factor in how many innings our starters are pitching and how effective they are when deciding how much a reliever is worth? No. They're worth what they're worth... then you just decide whether or not it's a fit for the organizational philosophy and the funds you have available. Harden is worth the contract he's getting. He may not fit what you want out of a pitcher, and you'd be well within your rights to pursue other options. But the innings he pitches at his level of effectiveness makes him worth the contract, whether or not his issues mesh with your philosophy or not.

It'll never happen. Because the idiot who doesn't vote for what should be a unanimous guy will give his newspaper a pretty hefty boost in readership, at least for a few days.

Yeah that math doesn't work. A guy half as good isn't worth half as much. If you wanted to take that sort of approach, you'd compute what 50% of Harden's innings plus 50% replacement level innings would give you in terms of production, then try and find a pricetag for that, then deduct the second guy's salary from that number, and then make some downward adjustment for the fact that you need to use 2 roster spots for one role. (Even that's a simplification, because the 50% of innings Harden doesn't give you is not spread to one player, but to many, some starters covering missed starts, and some relievers covering early exits.) Except that Harden isn't half as good. He's just as good in half the time. Value per IP is a pretty linear function unless we want to take leverage into account (which is silly for our purposes) You're trying to figure out what all we can get from that spot in the rotation, and it's confusing your evaluation.

I notice that nobody is debating that when Harden is pitching, he's pretty much just as good as any other pitcher out there. (Which is good, as simply looking at xFIP the last few years would eviscerate most arguments to the contrary). The problem most seem to have is that he doesn't pitch all that many innings. In a bit of math that I'm sure everybody here can understand, let's walk through this. How much money do the best pitchers in baseball make? $20 mil or so? Harden pitches what, 50% as many innings as a conservative estimate? Well then, Harden's probably worth about half as much... or somewhere in the range of $10 mil. There are mitigating factors of course, his bat, the chance he finally has that one healthy season, the chance he throws six innings and breaks down, and all that jazz about shuffling the rotation and bullpen to account for the innings he doesn't pitch. But if anybody is coming up with a drastically different figure than that $10 mil, they're probably doing something wrong... my money would be on being unable to see past ERA and a flukey home run / fly ball rate.

It includes their arm. Edit: dew made me feel like my answer should include a bit more, so... It breaks down how often a player has thrown out an advancing runner compared to the league average, as well as how often the runners attempt to advance. Outfielders actually get credit if their arm is so scary that people dont even try running on them anymore.

At a position populated by big, slow sluggers who take awful routes, the fast guy who takes awful routes can still be above average pretty easily. If his leg injuries manage to recover during this offseason, he should be fine out there again.

It's also unfortunate that Ryan Theriot can't hit like Hanley Ramirez. To be fair, there was a time when Soriano was a passable second baseman, there's never going to be a time when Theriot hits like Hanley. Not to stray too off topic, but was there ever a time when Soriano was a passable left fielder? I'm not even sure why he was moved in the first place. At least his offense was plus for a bad defensive 2B. Now he's just an about-average offensive LF that plays dreadfully amateurish outfield defense. Up until just last season, he'd been significantly above-average defensively in LF.

It's also unfortunate that Ryan Theriot can't hit like Hanley Ramirez. To be fair, there was a time when Soriano was a passable second baseman, there's never going to be a time when Theriot hits like Hanley. On April 8th this year, they both went 2-4 with no XBH. But Theriot even managed a walk on top of everything Hanley did.

Only if the other team requires it. Byrnes: How about Robinson Cano? Cashman: Make it Phil Coke and we have a deal. Byrnes: Sweet! Byrnes prolly thought he was getting a heir to the Coca-Cola fortune. From the looks of the trade, I'd think it more likely he thought he was getting some blow.

His well publicized mockery of the use of advanced metrics in decision making, and strict adherence to small-ball philosophies that are more likely to cost our team runs (and wins) than gain any. His knowledge of the game makes him seem like he'd be a wonderful coach, but he shouldn't be allowed to make any decisions about strategy or personnel.

Yeah, the Yankees are the other primary bidder for his services.

Reports are Braves will look to trade Soriano, he has to approve a trade before June 15. Knowing that Hendry is looking for a vet out of the bullpen Soriano could make sense, if they aren't asking a ton for him and it's more of a salary relief move. That June 15th rule applies to guys signed as free agents, not guys retained through arbitration. Corey Patterson was traded in the same offseason after accepting arbitration, for example. Soriano accepting arbitration is him being signed as a free agent. Correctamundo. (I've been wanting to use that word all day for some reason)

Scrappy little white guy with a heart of gold. Personally, I only support him over guys like Hawpe and Dye because they are awful options, not because he's a particularly good one. Cameron for instance is a pretty obvious upgrade. That said, fielding and baserunning are the new OBP... being currently undervalued by the vast majority.

Saito too.

What makes people think this? Matt Murton deserves a shot but Sam Fuld doesn't. Not necessarily you, but this is where people who rely mostly on stats lose credibility in my opinion. They argue Fuld should not be given a chance because you can't rely on a small sample size of success last year and his minor league stats don't suggest he will be a good player at the major league level. Meanwhile, a guy who has bounced around organizations doesn't get the shot "he deserves". The great Billy Beane had no use for Murton. Why? It may have something to do with his lack of defensive ability and his hitting does not overcome his bad defense. Beane could have had Murton again but instead chose Jake Fox. Interesting. On the other hand, Fuld plays good defense, has better speed and has shown an ability to get on base at the major league level but most people here don't want to give him a chance. I'm not necessarily advocating Fuld for CF, I'm just trying to point out the double standard that exists. I am the single biggest defender of Sam Fuld on this board, being on the record as preferring him to a number of other options including names like Brad Hawpe and Jermaine Dye. Oh, and the Fox versus Murton comparison is silly. Fox isn't being acquired to play in the field, which Murton had to do. And Murton isn't a bad defender. He's just not a good one. Same for his offense... not good, but not bad either.

Good for him. It was becoming painfully apparent that he was never going to get the shot he deserves here.

If he's willing to pitch in middle relief (with a chance at a swingman role) at or around league minimum, that's a great idea. But he'll want to start, or at least have a significant role in a bullpen. And he'll want to be paid a few million bucks for it. Pass.

By the numbers, he's certainly got the qualifications. But the Balco stuff and his generally antagonistic relationship with the media will likely keep him out.

Further destroying the use of wins as a stat, lets look at the starts in which Zambrano didn't get a win. How many games do you see on that list where Carlos pitched badly and it likely cost the Cubs the game? I count three... His first two starts off the DL at the end of August, and his last start on Sept 30.