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Rob

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Everything posted by Rob

  1. Rob
    Adding to that... Harden was our best pitcher last year. However, he didn't get anywhere near the best results. Replacing his production from last season shouldn't be so terribly difficult. Likewise for Bradley. Provided we don't make any more moves (aside from Bradley for a PTBNL), I'd expect us to win about as many games as we did last season despite replacing Bradley with Fuld and Harden with Gorzelanny/Marshall/Samardzija/Diamond. Seeing what's on the market at this point, I'd start to seriously consider standing pat. We do have prospects close to the majors and the necessary trade chips to make a bigger splash at the deadline, similar to how the Cards started off last season. Can someone help me to understand where this "Harden was our best pitcher last year" thought process is coming from? xFIP Based on his peripherals, you'd have expected him to have had the best results. He had some bad luck and a very flukey HR/FB rate.
  2. Rob
    No offense taken, I didn't cite a source... though I would think I'm quickly approaching the territory where people should start trusting my statements at face value. He's taken a few opportunities to rip into intelligent thought ever since the 1995 biography Second to Home. I'd cite passages for you, but I left the book at my parents house. Normally I'd give the man the benefit of the doubt when a book was written 14 years ago and assume he might have gotten smarter. But his HoF induction speech, Yahoo articles, etc... seem to paint a pretty clear picture that he still doesn't buy into analytical baseball. He's still about playing the game "the right way," which includes bunting like there's no tomorrow. Oh, and except for last season where he managed at AA, he'd had a DH in the previous two years. Those bunting numbers would likely have been higher if he had the pitcher batting.
  3. Rob
    Adding to that... Harden was our best pitcher last year. However, he didn't get anywhere near the best results. Replacing his production from last season shouldn't be so terribly difficult. Likewise for Bradley. Provided we don't make any more moves (aside from Bradley for a PTBNL), I'd expect us to win about as many games as we did last season despite replacing Bradley with Fuld and Harden with Gorzelanny/Marshall/Samardzija/Diamond. Seeing what's on the market at this point, I'd start to seriously consider standing pat. We do have prospects close to the majors and the necessary trade chips to make a bigger splash at the deadline, similar to how the Cards started off last season.
  4. Rob
    I was thinking John Rocker or Jose Canseco, personally.
  5. Rob
    The trick is you'd have to have somebody whom the public despises more than Bradley. Otherwise, you're just rallying them against Bradley again.
  6. Rob
    Rebounds from Soriano and Soto alone could be enough to get us into the playoffs, and that's to say nothing of potential contributions from some young guys we have reaching the upper minors like Castro, Cashner, Gaub, Jay Jackson, etc...
  7. Rob
    Not a good deal, not a bad deal. Provided he doesn't completely fall off a cliff, he should provide a bit more value that what they're paying him.
  8. Rob
    Also, 2 year for 15.5 mil is an absolute steal for Cameron.
  9. Rob
    If this becomes final, there isn't much out there on the FA market besides Byrd and maaaaybe Crisp. I'd rather run Fuld out there than Ankiel or Pods, and it isn't particularly close. Trade market may have some alternatives. I'd need to look around a bit though for somebody who would come cheaply.
  10. Rob
    Personally, I'd keep him on the team but manufacture a tangible enemy outside the team for him to focus on. The traveling secretary or somebody. It's actually a better option than benching him.
  11. Rob
    We get it, you don't like Bradley. You don't think he has value. You have said as much in every single post you've made over the last 3 months. Stop complaining about him and engage in a conversation worth having, for heaven's sake.
  12. Rob
    Did Bradley touch you or something?
  13. Rob
    Oh, I know that Arredondo is out for the season. But he'd be a great guy to give a cheap one year deal with a cheap 2nd year club option so we could monitor his recovery.
  14. Rob
    Non-tendered players I'd have interest in: Jose Arrendondo Garrett Atkins Matt Capps Ryan Church Ryan Garko Jonny Gomes Kelly Johnson Mike MacDougal Adam Miller Scott Olsen Chien Ming Wang Obviously, this list changes depending on price and whether players are willing to accept bench / platoon roles.
  15. Rob
    That has always baffled me, too. If I were an ML GM I'd stay far away from signing any FA who's done nothing until his contract year and then has a huge season. About 8 times out of 10 he's more of the bust than the superstar. Is that what you've found in your research? He gave a number, I'm sure he didn't just make that up off the top of his head with no real evidence to back it. erik is far too rational and thoughtful of a poster to do that.
  16. Rob
    He could be passable for 2-3 seasons.
  17. Rob
    Obviously you aren't aware that beer is a potent diuretic, especially when you have six to ten. And that's before the game starts. Real fans know to pregame elsewhere, as the ballpark beers are expensive. Also, real fans get drunk enough before the game that they forget they don't need to keep drinking the expensive ballpark beers all during the game. +1 Although, I continue to drink during the game - and after. Oh yeah, I have a philosophy. Go hard or go home. Generally speaking when I head to a Cubs game, I crash at a friend's house the night before, wake up and hit the bars about 2-3 hours before the game starts. Then I keep the beer vendors busy until the game is over. Grab dinner, hit up the bars, and head to Carol's around 2 and stay til they kick us out. One of these days, I'll be too old to make that trip. I already find I can't do it nearly as often as I used to be able to.
  18. Rob
    Obviously you aren't aware that beer is a potent diuretic, especially when you have six to ten. And that's before the game starts. Real fans know to pregame elsewhere, as the ballpark beers are expensive. Also, real fans get drunk enough before the game that they forget they don't need to keep drinking the expensive ballpark beers all during the game.
  19. Rob
    Obviously you aren't aware that beer is a potent diuretic, especially when you have six to ten.
  20. Rob
    Nothing quite like those restrooms after the game. Everybody walking slowly down the length of the trough while they piss.
  21. Rob
    This is a pointless argument. The vast majority of the time when Bradley's healthy, he's very good. Last year's power outage was an obvious fluke... his IsoP hasn't been that low since 2001.
  22. Rob
    Cameron is obviously the priority, and he knows he's likely maximizing his value to wait until the Cubs have dealt Bradley and can truly start bidding for his services. I wouldn't worry too much about us having to resort to the likes of Ankiel or Pods just yet. I've been saying I'd be extremely interested in Putz, provided he's not asking for too much. He's a real shutdown guy when healthy, and it's definitely worth watching him throw a few times and getting the medical reports.
  23. Rob
    I'll say it again, you're confusing yourself. Do you factor in how many innings our starters are pitching and how effective they are when deciding how much a reliever is worth? No. They're worth what they're worth... then you just decide whether or not it's a fit for the organizational philosophy and the funds you have available. Harden is worth the contract he's getting. He may not fit what you want out of a pitcher, and you'd be well within your rights to pursue other options. But the innings he pitches at his level of effectiveness makes him worth the contract, whether or not his issues mesh with your philosophy or not.
  24. Rob
    It'll never happen. Because the idiot who doesn't vote for what should be a unanimous guy will give his newspaper a pretty hefty boost in readership, at least for a few days.
  25. Rob
    Yeah that math doesn't work. A guy half as good isn't worth half as much. If you wanted to take that sort of approach, you'd compute what 50% of Harden's innings plus 50% replacement level innings would give you in terms of production, then try and find a pricetag for that, then deduct the second guy's salary from that number, and then make some downward adjustment for the fact that you need to use 2 roster spots for one role. (Even that's a simplification, because the 50% of innings Harden doesn't give you is not spread to one player, but to many, some starters covering missed starts, and some relievers covering early exits.) Except that Harden isn't half as good. He's just as good in half the time. Value per IP is a pretty linear function unless we want to take leverage into account (which is silly for our purposes) You're trying to figure out what all we can get from that spot in the rotation, and it's confusing your evaluation.
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