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Rob

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Everything posted by Rob

  1. Rob
    Whether the outcome is substantially different this year or not (in terms of ISO), it's hard to watch Castro and Theriot hit and not see a huge difference in the way the ball comes off the bat. The results bear that out too. Take a look at Theriot's HRs (2006-2009) http://www.hittrackeronline.com/parks/Theriot_Ryan_2006_scatter.jpg http://www.hittrackeronline.com/parks/Theriot_Ryan_2007_scatter.jpg http://www.hittrackeronline.com/parks/Theriot_Ryan_2008_scatter.jpg http://www.hittrackeronline.com/parks/Theriot_Ryan_2009_scatter.jpg Ryan Theriot basically has to pull the ball to generate any power at all, with 12 of his 14 career HR going to left field. Only 2 were hit to center, and he has managed zero opposite field HR in over 2000 PA... this despite the fact that his approach has him putting the ball in opposite field most of the time. Castro put one over the RF stands in his first PA. Do we expect him to showcase usable power in his first ML season at age 20? No. And nobody should. But just because he isn't showing it like you might like in the early going doesn't mean it's anything to be concerned about.
  2. Rob
    Very true, I just have little to no interest in limping into the playoffs and getting swept in three games again. To me, that winds up being about as fulfilling as having missed the playoffs by a few games. Go big or go home, as they say. I have a lot of interest in limping into the playoffs. It means we have a 1 and 8 chance of winning the World Series. it doesn't mean that at all, it means there are 8 teams in the playoffs. the better teams have a better chance of winning the world series. The degree to which that is true is probably smaller than you think.
  3. Rob
    What exactly is the benefit? Doesn't this lower his trade value? It lowers his trade value in the short term, sure... But I'm actually buying Jackson as somebody who can step into the 8th inning on the big league club almost immediately.
  4. Rob
    I'm less upset about the Jackson thing than I probably should be. I just see him as somebody who would be much more valuable as a starter if we had a spot available for him, but since we don't and his stuff plays up in the pen (where we need help at the moment), why not make it a temporary move? It's not like he needs the innings like Cashner does.
  5. Rob
    In fairness to Grabow, he's sporting a nasty .409 BABIP and a below average strand rate. But I still want to put a tire iron to the back of his head until he's a big, gooey mess.
  6. Rob
    If Bengie is upset for himself, then he needs to grow thicker skin. If Bengie is upset for Giants fans, he's got a legit point. If there was only enough room to highlight one thing from that game, there were much better things ESPN should have focused on.
  7. Rob
    That BABIP is pretty high, but even tweaking it down to his xBABIP I'm coming up with a line of .319/.425/.524 That doesn't exactly have a whole bunch of predicative value with 32 PA, but it does show that Castro is legitimately hitting very well at the moment. Of course, the real challenge will be after the pitchers get the book on him and he has to start making adjustments, but I have faith.
  8. Rob
    I'm gonna be at the Memphis Redbirds game tonight as part of a bachelor party. Took a quick look at the rosters and there are some flashes in the way back machine (Rich Hill, Sean Gallagher, Radhames Liz, Ruben Gotay, Eric Munson, etc...), but there doesn't appear to be much in the way of real prospects from either the redbirds or the portland beavers, save for maybe Aaron Cunningham.
  9. Rob
    It likely will be. Teams weren't really exploiting the rule until recently, so it wasn't really an issue. I cant imagine it has a great chance of sticking around through another CBA negotiation.
  10. Rob
    You might be right, although I haven't been able to find the definitive answer after some digging. Callis referred to it as a power breaking ball in the Cubs' Top 10 prospect chat and the various Andrew Cashner comparisons implied he worked with a slider rather than a curve. I seem to recall Wilken referring to it as a curve at the cubs convention this year, but I could be off.
  11. Rob
    Im more for Fontenot being traded. the Castro/Theriot MI makes him irrelevant, because hes really not a backup shortstop, and aside from a lefty bat off the bench, theres really not much use for him. I agree that Colvin, who I believe will be our RF once Kosukes contract is up could benefit from regular ABs in Iowa as well. Also, Nady isnt 100%, and it shows. As far as Im concerned, 1 of Fontenot or Baker could be traded and call up Tracy. In addition, either DL Nady or send Colvin to Iowa for his own good and call up Darwin Barney as a backup SS, as Ive heard hes pretty good defensively, although his offensive ceiling is somewhere between Andres Blanco and present day Omar Vizquel. I'm more about trading Theriot than Fontenot.
  12. Rob
    Small sample size alerts all over the place, but... 12.1 H/9, 12.1 K/9, 4.66 BB/9 12.9 H/9, 7.04 K/9, 2.34 BB/9 Let's not pretend Carlos has figured it out in the bullpen or something. He's walked a few less guys, but he's giving up more hits and striking out a lot fewer. ERA is a shitty stat anyways.
  13. Rob
    Guilty as charged on the Cashner draft-day hate. But I was operating under the assumption the Cubs wouldn't turn him into a starter... Hell, I'm still surprised at how well they're handling him.
  14. Rob
    Silva's numbers are beginning to erode somewhat. His luck on hits at the start of the year has evaporated, with him now giving up 42 over 42.1 IP. Likewise, he's given up more home runs to bring his HR rate to around the league average. His walk rate is around his average as well. The only real difference that we can point at to say the FO saw something and "fixed" him is that bump in his K/9. He's still well below league average (85th highest K/9 among 117 qualifiers), but that's a category he "lead" before, so power to him I suppose. We'll see how well that aspect holds up. At any rate, the nice ERA is pretty much the product of some above average strand rates and that W-L record is due to some nice run support. He's probably not one of our 5 best starters. Zambrano, Dempster and Lilly are no-doubt better, Wells very likely is, Gorzelanny probably is as well, and we may have a few guys like Cashner and Jackson down in AAA who could turn in better seasons. But there are worse 5th starters out there than Carlos Silva.
  15. Rob
    Yeah! Crazy bastards!
  16. Rob

    It's Time

    Rob replied to lumafia's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk

    Just for the sake of discussion, I have the following lines adjusted to reflect their expected BABIPs instead of their actual. Derrek Lee - .268/.380/.392 Aramis Ramirez - .230/.289/.344 Always a notoriously slow starter before his time with the Cubs, Derrek's line would look pretty much the same as it does most seasons if his HR/FB ratio weren't quite so low at the moment. That's likely to pick up as the weather warms up, and I see very little reason to be concerned about his production this season. All this talk about dropping him way down in the order or benching him is stupid. Aramis is flat out struggling though. There's no way around it. It's not that he's swinging at junk out of the zone, either. He's just been completely unable to make contact on fastballs in the strike zone this season. Whether it's a timing issue that can be fixed or his bat slowing down remains to be seen, but I have a hard time selling low on a player as good as Aramis has been. He may be able to use a few days off to work on things some more, but again... the idea of benching him is ridiculous. Who are we going to run out there instead? Best to get Aramis the reps he needs to work on things hoping he can turn it around, because if we're running Bobby Scales out there every day, this season is lost already.
  17. Rob

    It's Time

    Rob replied to lumafia's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk

    This is stupid.
  18. Rob
    On this date in baseball history, 2009: - Derrek Lee was batting .209/.282/.363. He went on to have the second best season of his career. Let's remember it's early, and there still isn't a large enough sample size for anything to mean all that much.
  19. Rob
    Have any players younger than Castro hit a HR in their first major league PA?
  20. Rob
    Late to the party, but <3 Castro.
  21. Rob
    Remember when we were winning all those games even though Koyie Hill was our starting catcher everyday? Yeah, that's when Soriano was tearing the cover off the ball.
  22. Rob
    I was at today's game. Can't ask for much more. Perfect weather. Comeback. Cubs win after late inning heroics.
  23. Rob
    They are both struggling a bit, but their BABIP numbers are ridiculously low. I'm not worried in the least.
  24. Rob
    Soriano was an obvious mistake, but as Meph and TT have illustrated, Z's hitting capabilties are enough to make him equitable with guys like Carpenter, Oswalt, et al. most years. Not saying $90 mil wasn't too much, but he's a unique and elite talent. Soriano isn't. Where the hell is Meph posting now?
  25. Rob

    Z to the pen

    Rob replied to inari's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk

    i know it sounds a immature and illogical, but when it comes to a short term decision like this, i would rather go with the short term data. i am in no way advocating this as a long term move. if that was the case i would go with silva to the pen (only because we have 3 lhp already). plus if your most talented starter is playing like crap, i don't think it automatically gives him a free pass to stay in the rotation either. (for the record, i don't think zambrano has been crap this season, just one start. but so far silva has out performed zambrano this season and i think everyone can agree with that.) this may be a bad decision based on 7 years of data, but i would rather go with the hot hands right now. if someone plays themself out of a rotation spot i'm perfectly fine with putting z in their slot. i see this as a numbers game. someone had to get pulled to make room for lilly and zambrano's performance so far i don't think justifies him starting compared to the other 4 this season. Before today, Z had an xFIP of 3.37 and Silva was 3.38. Silva hasn't out-performed Z. He's been luckier.
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