Rob

People really need to stop guessing who was using steroids or not. I can't tell if the whole process is more annoying or stupid, but it's definitely something that makes you look bad.

You're kidding, right? No, he's right.

That's not really the Hendry MO. He seems to prefer going year to year and then trying to sign any impending FA in the period between the end of the world series and the start of free agency.

What a crock of [expletive]. I live 3 hours south of chicago and buy every offered sports package (including Extra Innings) every year, but I wont get to watch OPENING DAY because I can't get WCIU, but live close enough to get blacked out regardless.

Stop plagiarizing my posts before I can make them.

This isn't quite true. Blanco plus whomever the Cubs received in return for Theriot would have to combine to provide those 20 runs. Let's say that the Cubs were able to move Theriot for a quality reliever that could save 10 additional runs over some of the guys currently slated for the back end of the pen. I think Blanco could be 10 runs better than Theriot on defense. Absolutely a possibility. I was just referring to the situation at SS though, as there's no way to know what we'd receive back in a trade. It could be prospects or ML ready guys. Well, if it's prospects we get back, then we'd have that extra $2.5M to spend on something useful, too. I didn't think it needed to be said, but yes... the outcome of any potential trade of Ryan Theriot depends on what we get in return. I was just asked about comparing Theriot and Blanco.

This isn't quite true. Blanco plus whomever the Cubs received in return for Theriot would have to combine to provide those 20 runs. Let's say that the Cubs were able to move Theriot for a quality reliever that could save 10 additional runs over some of the guys currently slated for the back end of the pen. I think Blanco could be 10 runs better than Theriot on defense. Absolutely a possibility. I was just referring to the situation at SS though, as there's no way to know what we'd receive back in a trade. It could be prospects or ML ready guys.

Barring just some awful luck, we should still be within a few games at the trade deadline... and we'll be able to make a couple of moves at that point.

It's hard to quantify Blanco's defense at SS. He only got 90 innings there last year and hadn't played in the majors since 2006. And even at that, he only has 66 total games at SS in the majors. That said, I don't see it as particularly likely that his glove can cover the gap in their offensive abilities. I didn't even think about him not having a big enough sample size to truly get any sort of real indication. Do we think Blanco could be close to a gold glove caliber SS, given what we've seen from him in the field? If that answer is yes, then does it make it close enough value-wise to pull the trigger and deal Theriot? I'll have to make this quick and dirty, but it's a good approximation. If they both perform like they did last season with the bat, the difference between them over 650 PA is about 20 runs. All metrics seem to be in agreement that we are unfairly disparaging Theriot's defense on this board, and most systems rank him as average to slightly above average. For the sake of argument, let's say he's dead average. (which is likely underselling him) Andres Blanco would have to be +20 with the glove to provide equal value. In the last 5 years, there have been a grand total of three SS who have accomplished that feat... Orlando Cabrera in 2005, Adam Everett in 2006, and Omar Vizquel in 2007. Nobody has managed it the last two years. Do you think Blanco would?

It's hard to quantify Blanco's defense at SS. He only got 90 innings there last year and hadn't played in the majors since 2006. And even at that, he only has 66 total games at SS in the majors. That said, I don't see it as particularly likely that his glove can cover the gap in their offensive abilities.

I don't have a problem with it. He wont make the team out of ST and is likely behind Hoff and Tracy for any time at all. Why not toss one "good clubhouse" guy onto Iowa's bench?

Meh. If you understand all the caveats involved, I don't have a problem at all with you using the numbers in illustration of a point. Most people don't understand the issues with those numbers, though.

and even then, to call Dye worse than replacement level (or average AAA OF, or whatever) is just false. I don't care how bad his defense is. Up until the second half of last year, when we collapsed after being on his way to what seemed like an easy 40 maybe 50 home run season, Dye has been great ever since joining the White Sox. I dont know what happened that caused him to completely fall off, but I really dont see him as a AAAA player. I doubt he'll get a full time gig at this point, but some team will probably get a good deal on him on a 1 year 2-3 mil deal. Easy 40 or 50 HR? The hell? The White Sox played their 81st game on the fourth of July last season. In it, Jermaine Dye hit his 19th home run. He was hitting HR at a pace of one every 15.68 PA. In 14 major league seasons, he's had one season where he hit HR more often than that, and one where he was extremely similar. For his career, he's hit HR at a pace of one every 22.20 PA. He had to stay extremely healthy and continue to perform well above established levels to have a shot at 40. 50 was never on the table... I don't know where you got that. I wont even justify the misconception that he's been "great ever since joining the White Sox" with a derisive comment.

Sorry, was trying to type that on the phone and didn't have the ability to multitask and check splits. Brain farted on Fox. Still, the beauty of AAAA guys is that they're freely available pretty much anywhere. They don't have to come from the Cubs system. A platoon with Fuld is putting Dye behind Fuld versus about 75% of the league's pitchers. Now for the meat and bones... If by some magic Dye managed to play a full season (let's say 650 PA or so) and every single pitcher was a left-hander, he'd be about a 2 or 2.5 win player. (For reference, he was a 1.8 win player in 2008 posting 645 PA with an offensive contribution approaching his 3 year splits versus lefties). Last I checked, about 27% of pitchers are left handed. Let's call it 30% to adjust for the idea that we're putting him in that role with the idea we're gonna pull him for a defensive replacement every once in a while. That puts him around .6 to .75 WAR... which makes even a 3.3 mil contract a bit expensive for the production he provides. Not hugely so, but again, that's assuming he's only put in that perfect role... a role so strict that he likely wouldn't have been willing to sign with the team if he knew what he was getting into.

Oh, I wasn't even going back to that well. I was just referring to WAR. But a thoughtful post deserves a reply. Pre-empting the "use them in the right roles" argument, I'm sure there are plenty of AAAA players exhibiting the same lefty-mashing, bad glove schtik while getting paid the minimum. We just traded one in Jake Fox. And besides, from what I've been told, Dye wants to start. Putting him behind established veterans is one thing. Putting him behind high-upside young guys is another thing. And putting him behind low-upside young guys like Sam Fuld is another one entirely. The idea that we could use Dye in that perfect role is unrealistic. He wouldn't have signed here without being considered the primary backup. I'm not even sure he wouldn't have been signed here without an assurance he could have started to steal the starting jobs in LF or RF if soriano or fukudome struggled.

You're reading too much into my phrasing, which was done simply as a contrast to cubsbearsmagic's post immediately preceding mine. If you prefer Nady over Dye, thats fine, as most here do. However this "Dye is worse than AAAA" stuff is nonsense. Do you have any stats to back this up or is it purely speculation? Yes, I do have numbers to back it up. I haven't been shy about using them either.

You're reading too much into my phrasing, which was done simply as a contrast to cubsbearsmagic's post immediately preceding mine.

In a perfect world, yes... he'd be a fine addition to the team. He could face lefties as a pinch hitter or in a platoon role, get pulled for a defensive replacement late in the game, and almost never be allowed to face a right handed pitcher. But he wasn't going to be signed for that role. He was going to be signed as a guy who got into 100+ games by being in that platoon role, plus getting the starting nod should Soriano, Byrd, or Fukudome go down with an injury. And if he didn't have those assurances about his playing time, he wasn't going to sign. Since he was going to be expected to play defense and face righties, there are plenty of players who can put up more value for the league minimum. When you start talking about 3.3 mil plus possible incentives, that list grows even more. In the real world, for the amount of money he was going to command and the amount of playing time he would get, Jermaine Dye was never a good option for this team.

You're definitely one of something. Yeah, one of the people who correctly realized that Dye is worse than your average AAAA player at this point. I already said it.

As one of the people who correctly realized that Dye is worse than your average AAAA player at this point, I don't know if I'm happier that he turned the deal down or pissed off at the front office for offering him a ridiculous contract in the first place.

I hope most of that's not in the field. That's not meant to be a real slight to Nady, but if he's getting that kind of playing time... well, that means our better options (Fukudome, Soriano, and Lee) are either injured or not performing.

Yes and no. Personally, I'm in agreement that we should probably be in a wait-and-see approach till the deadline based on Castro's improvement, the standings, injuries, our 2B platoon's performance, etc... On the other hand, I don't see the difference between Theriot and Barney or Blanco to be more than two wins (probably closer to one)... and based on your assessment of our playoff chances and the fact that position players generally fetch significantly more in the offseason than at the deadline, it might make sense to move him if there's a willing trade partner out there now and you don't see us as particularly likely to be fighting for a playoff spot. Well the Cubs are certainly not approaching the season with the mindset that they're not particularly likely to be fighting for a playoff spot. That much is obvious. They're in the same win-now mode that they've been in for years. What's also clear, at least to most, is that their postseason chances are tenuous enough that they can't be giving away wins, whether it be one, two, or whatever. As we all know the difference between being in and being out was just a game or two in 03, 04, and 07. My own opinion is that the alternatives to Theriot should be expected to produce no better than replacement level, and further, that Theriot is more than 1 to 2 wins above replacement. 3 to 4 wins would be more like it, and depending on which website's metrics you prefer (fangraphs, baseball prospectus, etc), I suspect they're likely to agree. The only thing in that post I'm disagreeing with is the assumption that Theriot's replacement is likely to be replacement level. I was the biggest Darwin Barney hater in the world when he was drafted... but if his defense is as good as the latest rounds of scouting reports claim, he doesn't have to do much with the bat to be worth more than replacement. The same applies to Blanco. And that's to say nothing of Castro.

Bay was quite a bit better in the previous years, and was simply fighting a nasty knee injury at the time.

Yes and no. Personally, I'm in agreement that we should probably be in a wait-and-see approach till the deadline based on Castro's improvement, the standings, injuries, our 2B platoon's performance, etc... On the other hand, I don't see the difference between Theriot and Barney or Blanco to be more than two wins (probably closer to one)... and based on your assessment of our playoff chances and the fact that position players generally fetch significantly more in the offseason than at the deadline, it might make sense to move him if there's a willing trade partner out there now and you don't see us as particularly likely to be fighting for a playoff spot.

20 posts and nobody said "pixie dust" yet? You guys are slacking.