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Rob

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Everything posted by Rob

  1. Rob
    Game.
  2. Rob
    What's the record for fewest penalty yards in a superbowl?
  3. Rob
    i'd be fine with that, but only if you are referring to the football team and not the [expletive] band. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h-vwPuiILBc
  4. Rob
    Well at least this game is getting interesting. I was worried it might get lopsided after the Colts jumped out 10-0.
  5. Rob
    I'm currently at the worst Super Bowl Party ever. My neighbor said she was going to have a bunch of her friends over. It's me, her, her cousin, and a bunch of people from her work... who are all 15 years older than me.
  6. Rob
    It's a good thing Emmitt Smith was an excellent football player, because he would not have made it as a professional coin tosser.
  7. Rob
    http://pics.livejournal.com/ack_attack/pic/004pa6y3 :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
  8. Rob
    No worries. That happens around here a lot.
  9. Rob
    That's selling the Twins a bit short. They are the best team in the division.
  10. Rob
    People really need to stop guessing who was using steroids or not. I can't tell if the whole process is more annoying or stupid, but it's definitely something that makes you look bad.
  11. Rob
    You're kidding, right? No, he's right.
  12. Rob
    That's not really the Hendry MO. He seems to prefer going year to year and then trying to sign any impending FA in the period between the end of the world series and the start of free agency.
  13. Rob
    What a crock of [expletive]. I live 3 hours south of chicago and buy every offered sports package (including Extra Innings) every year, but I wont get to watch OPENING DAY because I can't get WCIU, but live close enough to get blacked out regardless.
  14. Rob
    Stop plagiarizing my posts before I can make them.
  15. Rob
    This isn't quite true. Blanco plus whomever the Cubs received in return for Theriot would have to combine to provide those 20 runs. Let's say that the Cubs were able to move Theriot for a quality reliever that could save 10 additional runs over some of the guys currently slated for the back end of the pen. I think Blanco could be 10 runs better than Theriot on defense. Absolutely a possibility. I was just referring to the situation at SS though, as there's no way to know what we'd receive back in a trade. It could be prospects or ML ready guys. Well, if it's prospects we get back, then we'd have that extra $2.5M to spend on something useful, too. I didn't think it needed to be said, but yes... the outcome of any potential trade of Ryan Theriot depends on what we get in return. I was just asked about comparing Theriot and Blanco.
  16. Rob
    This isn't quite true. Blanco plus whomever the Cubs received in return for Theriot would have to combine to provide those 20 runs. Let's say that the Cubs were able to move Theriot for a quality reliever that could save 10 additional runs over some of the guys currently slated for the back end of the pen. I think Blanco could be 10 runs better than Theriot on defense. Absolutely a possibility. I was just referring to the situation at SS though, as there's no way to know what we'd receive back in a trade. It could be prospects or ML ready guys.
  17. Rob
    Barring just some awful luck, we should still be within a few games at the trade deadline... and we'll be able to make a couple of moves at that point.
  18. Rob
    It's hard to quantify Blanco's defense at SS. He only got 90 innings there last year and hadn't played in the majors since 2006. And even at that, he only has 66 total games at SS in the majors. That said, I don't see it as particularly likely that his glove can cover the gap in their offensive abilities. I didn't even think about him not having a big enough sample size to truly get any sort of real indication. Do we think Blanco could be close to a gold glove caliber SS, given what we've seen from him in the field? If that answer is yes, then does it make it close enough value-wise to pull the trigger and deal Theriot? I'll have to make this quick and dirty, but it's a good approximation. If they both perform like they did last season with the bat, the difference between them over 650 PA is about 20 runs. All metrics seem to be in agreement that we are unfairly disparaging Theriot's defense on this board, and most systems rank him as average to slightly above average. For the sake of argument, let's say he's dead average. (which is likely underselling him) Andres Blanco would have to be +20 with the glove to provide equal value. In the last 5 years, there have been a grand total of three SS who have accomplished that feat... Orlando Cabrera in 2005, Adam Everett in 2006, and Omar Vizquel in 2007. Nobody has managed it the last two years. Do you think Blanco would?
  19. Rob
    It's hard to quantify Blanco's defense at SS. He only got 90 innings there last year and hadn't played in the majors since 2006. And even at that, he only has 66 total games at SS in the majors. That said, I don't see it as particularly likely that his glove can cover the gap in their offensive abilities.
  20. Rob
    I don't have a problem with it. He wont make the team out of ST and is likely behind Hoff and Tracy for any time at all. Why not toss one "good clubhouse" guy onto Iowa's bench?
  21. Rob
    Meh. If you understand all the caveats involved, I don't have a problem at all with you using the numbers in illustration of a point. Most people don't understand the issues with those numbers, though.
  22. Rob
    and even then, to call Dye worse than replacement level (or average AAA OF, or whatever) is just false. I don't care how bad his defense is. Up until the second half of last year, when we collapsed after being on his way to what seemed like an easy 40 maybe 50 home run season, Dye has been great ever since joining the White Sox. I dont know what happened that caused him to completely fall off, but I really dont see him as a AAAA player. I doubt he'll get a full time gig at this point, but some team will probably get a good deal on him on a 1 year 2-3 mil deal. Easy 40 or 50 HR? The hell? The White Sox played their 81st game on the fourth of July last season. In it, Jermaine Dye hit his 19th home run. He was hitting HR at a pace of one every 15.68 PA. In 14 major league seasons, he's had one season where he hit HR more often than that, and one where he was extremely similar. For his career, he's hit HR at a pace of one every 22.20 PA. He had to stay extremely healthy and continue to perform well above established levels to have a shot at 40. 50 was never on the table... I don't know where you got that. I wont even justify the misconception that he's been "great ever since joining the White Sox" with a derisive comment.
  23. Rob
    Sorry, was trying to type that on the phone and didn't have the ability to multitask and check splits. Brain farted on Fox. Still, the beauty of AAAA guys is that they're freely available pretty much anywhere. They don't have to come from the Cubs system. A platoon with Fuld is putting Dye behind Fuld versus about 75% of the league's pitchers. Now for the meat and bones... If by some magic Dye managed to play a full season (let's say 650 PA or so) and every single pitcher was a left-hander, he'd be about a 2 or 2.5 win player. (For reference, he was a 1.8 win player in 2008 posting 645 PA with an offensive contribution approaching his 3 year splits versus lefties). Last I checked, about 27% of pitchers are left handed. Let's call it 30% to adjust for the idea that we're putting him in that role with the idea we're gonna pull him for a defensive replacement every once in a while. That puts him around .6 to .75 WAR... which makes even a 3.3 mil contract a bit expensive for the production he provides. Not hugely so, but again, that's assuming he's only put in that perfect role... a role so strict that he likely wouldn't have been willing to sign with the team if he knew what he was getting into.
  24. Rob
    Oh, I wasn't even going back to that well. I was just referring to WAR. But a thoughtful post deserves a reply. Pre-empting the "use them in the right roles" argument, I'm sure there are plenty of AAAA players exhibiting the same lefty-mashing, bad glove schtik while getting paid the minimum. We just traded one in Jake Fox. And besides, from what I've been told, Dye wants to start. Putting him behind established veterans is one thing. Putting him behind high-upside young guys is another thing. And putting him behind low-upside young guys like Sam Fuld is another one entirely. The idea that we could use Dye in that perfect role is unrealistic. He wouldn't have signed here without being considered the primary backup. I'm not even sure he wouldn't have been signed here without an assurance he could have started to steal the starting jobs in LF or RF if soriano or fukudome struggled.
  25. Rob
    You're reading too much into my phrasing, which was done simply as a contrast to cubsbearsmagic's post immediately preceding mine. If you prefer Nady over Dye, thats fine, as most here do. However this "Dye is worse than AAAA" stuff is nonsense. Do you have any stats to back this up or is it purely speculation? Yes, I do have numbers to back it up. I haven't been shy about using them either.
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